Please, for once, can we have a proper, mature discussion about BTC from an economical perspective, all this Bobo, Mumu, Snips and whatever shitcoinposting aside, and sit at a big table, like men? I know this place can get to you and Crypto in general can be a stessful place, but the time is ripe to have a have a proper talk. I think we need to have a proper discussion on these ratios.I see so many people who simply don't understand this. I want to begin with that there are two kinds of economics. There is the absolute infinite banana bubble economy that is what the central banks and governments like so very much called Keynesian economics. Infinite inflation good, because then you spend your money instead of holding it, stimulating the economy. Then there is the other branch, called Austrian economics. This kind of economics basically has very little to say other than these are the things that matter and the rest is kinda relevant but not that much: production price, supply, and demand. Austrian economics is extremely simplistic in comparison to the Keynesian bullshit. There is a reason I am mentioning this: I think that BTC is the ultimate example of Austrian economics model on steroids. If you actually took the time (5-15 minutes if not very dumb or potentially a lifetime if mentally challenged) to look at the ratios between market price and production price in the long term, you will see that BTC may sometimes be a bubble (to some degree of about 3X factor relative to production price). For simplification reasons, I have drawn RED shapes on an image to show where the market price was higher than the production price and GREEN shapes to show where the market price was above production price. The WORST ratio was 1.78:1 for producing it. So it costs almost twice as much to produce it as the market price was. Teh best ratio was about 0.12:1, which means price was 10X more than the production price. This was in the insane bull run of 2017. (cont)
>>59760811In the previous bull run the ratio was about 0.33, showing, although the pattern has not repeated many times, that there is a general inclination for the production price to hover around the market price, and vice versa. It is also showing a fine dance between production price and market price. If market price is a lot higher than production price, then more people will compete to produce BTC, because it is significantly more profitable to mine it at that time. However, people also understand the production price and why would a miner sell it for a fraction of the costs of production? Even not a miner, unless there is some extremely evil entity with a stack of a million, what person knowing about the production price of an asset would sell it at let's say a tenth of its actual production price? Only a fool. Would you sell gold at under the production price? Silver?? A Mongolian weaved basket???By the way, here is the link of which this chart is based from: https://en.macromicro.me/charts/29435/bitcoin-production-total-costBTC only costs about 10% above its production price currently by the way, that's not that crazy. Almost certainly all except gold on teh top market caps list are far more disproportionately overpriced. In case you are wondering about the formula, I can answer more questions (late, and sleepy, so possibly tomorrow if thread is still up) about it tomorrow, as I have found a TradingView script with immense corrolation to it so can even supply you with the formula for this. I do remember that it keeps in mind the percentage of miners from large mining country (which is dynamic) and their respective electricity costs. Interestingly when investigating this I realized about 30% of the hash rate is in Texas. I believe Trump's ultimate move, if anyone in his cabinet actually understands jack shit, will be to bring the production price up by giving more cheap electricity to the people and thus more initiative to mine.
I think this thread will die by the time I wake up, quite a shame :(
>>59760936take a bump
This all seems interesting, but I really just come here to be told whether to buy or sell by cartoon animals.Bumping just the same.
I'm an eth maxxi, why should I care
>>59761082Who crossed their feet first, Vitalik or that Indian lady?
>>59760855>long uranium stonksRoger that, BRIAP
>>59760811>>59760855>>59760936bump what will BTC's price be? if its Austrian eco, meaning itll keep going up over time with its limited supply ?
You’ve placed the cart before the horse. Supply is perfectly inelastic, production cost is a function of hashrate, so production cost rises to market price, not the other way around.Demand is uncorrelated to production cost after all, but price in excess of production cost will induce an increase in hashrate and therefore an increase in production cost.
>>59761155Infinity in-the-limit.This is the first cycle that “baseload” demand is in excess of subsidy (unless we hit +$500k this cycle) so will be the first cycle without a bear market. The bear was as mechanical as the bull, caused by over-correcting (to the plus side) after the halving and then being hammered down by the excess supply of the subsidy at peak prices
>>59761190very interesting a lot of people with experience are alluding to this thesis and to be honest this is fascinating
>>59761159this, mining contributes no buy pressure and actually may contribute sell pressure for miners who want to sell their newfound BTC. Miners spend money to acquire a profit, rather than the asset becoming profitable for the miners' investment.
>>59761190I don't kjnow... the cycles are bigger than bitcoin as they follow the global M2 money supply. I'm not going to test it; better just to hodl.
>>59761242Money stock doesn’t have 4yr cycles. Bitcoin does have a high correlation to global liquidity, but this is because global liquidity effects nominal demand
>>59761190So what you're saying is 250k BTC this year
>>59761390Short-term price projections are difficult (technically impossible) as it’s unknowable what price level will incentivize holders to sell, there may be a great abundance of supply at $150k or $200k, only time will tell.Long term is easier, which is why I don’t trade and just stack
Gentlemen, I am happy to be having an actual conversation built off logic and no shilling for once. I applaud all contributors. Sincerely, thank you.>>59761155I'm going to assume a top of 2X production price to market price ratio as the top this time, which is still a variable currency number, because I don't know what hash rate increases will come. Let's assume there will be a 50% hash rate increase, that would make production price 120K, and a 2X factor then would be 240K. But this is just guessing. However I would consider this a realistic target, at least based off decent logic. 180K is very lowball. As long as demand increases AND hash rate increases there should be over the long term continued significant increases in price. So far, it has been the case. I assume the future will continue to be so.>>59761060>but I really just come here to be told whether to buy or sell by cartoon animalsx))>>59761111I would guess Vitalik considering the 'tism.>>59761159What you say sounds perfectly logical. However you claim opposite things, or do I misunderstand? Because you say production cost rises to market price, but then that price in excess of production cost induces hash rate increases? I am confused, cal you please elaborate?>>59761190I do think at any run, including this one, the bear market periods might end as price becomes more correlated to production price with less volatile upwards and downwards ratios. At some point if not this cycle then another, it is perfectly logical for the bear markets to stop, however they will probably be met with also smaller bull markets relative to production price. This is not me correcting you by the way, I'm just agreeing mostly.> The bear was as mechanical as the bull, caused by over-correcting (to the plus side) after the halving and then being hammered down by the excess supply of the subsidy at peak pricesYou are an incredibly smart individual I can see. Good brain logic circuitry. I applaud thee.
>>59761242Based. I just HODL as well. At the rate things are going almost everyone will eventually regret selling, even with diminishing returns.
Good thread. Bumperino
>>59760811>>59760855>>59762557Even if OP writes like a true faggot, I have been thinking about this for a while and mostly agree with the fundamentals on what causes BTC prices to rise, with the occasional bubbles risin and poppin. Note that the market is still highly manipulated by exchanges, but this will become more and more difficult for them with adoption, as the market cap increases and the countries will regulate exchanges more. I also think that the bulls and bears are becoming less and less violent (2011, 2017, 2021, 2024), and the price always ends up being tied to the PoW production price. Satoshi truly was a genius.In the longrun, BTC probably has potential for a x10 (even with inflation-correction since memes aside, fiat has truly no bottom) by flippening or becoming gold's equal. Humans will always produce value so there is no reason for a deflationary asset like BTC to continually rise in value. Of course in comparison to highly inflationary assets like fiat, the rise is potentially infinite (depending on how autistic central banks will behave in the future). Even if the actual value of things is based on fundamentals, real-life (market) value is based on trust and hype, so the true questions are 1) whether BTC is truly too big to fail 2) whether it can be flipped by another crypto in which people put more trust and 3) if BTC dev team can be "infiltrated" from the inside by glowies and force-forked in a bad way. I'm not too worried about 51% hashrate attacks and quantum memes.
>>59762595sorry>there is no reason for a deflationary asset like BTC NOT to continually rise in value
>>59762595Another question that needs to be addressed is 4) What happens when the last BTC is mined? Will the transaction fee be enough as an incentive? Will they rise tremendously? Or will the price crash? This is also why cryptos with a slight emission longtail like XMR are better in terms of fundamentals.
>>59762595> Even if OP writes like a true faggot=( Well today I am largping as a gentleman and gentlemen are kinda faggy in general so I guess it fits. Other than that absolutely based perspective. I will say however there is no reason to believe the price would not double every halving if demand and hash rate remains perfecty consistent it should still be a 2X every 4 years at worst. The only thing that could actually bring the price down significantly in the long term would be long term reductions in hash rate. It would have to drop 50% over 4 years for it to break even on market price. Since I agree with everything you said this is not me correcting you, only adding. >>59762612I try not to worry about things that might happen 100 years away. Perhaps that is short sighted though.
>>59760811>Please, for once, can we have a proper, mature discussion about BTC from an economical perspectiveProbably not with a long winded midwit like you.>>59760855>what person knowing about the production price of an asset would sell it at let's say a tenth of its actual production price? Only a fool. Would you sell gold at under the production price? Lmao you fucking midwit retard. Maybe learn how things work before talking about them, let alone making threads about them, let alone acting like everyone is dumber than you.
>>59762760Without trying to supply logical arguements what exactly do you plan to achieve? Think just spouting emotional bullshit is going to convince people of anything?
>>59762783I'm not trying to convince anyone of anything. I am telling you that you are a retard. You should be very grateful for my post.
>>59760855What exactly is there to discuss you just made a 3000 word post which can be explained with one picture
>>59762800the most humble person I've seem.
>>59760811A sound post on this god forsaken board.
>>59760811SENSIBLE DISCUSSMUNICIPAL MARMALADETRADED LIKE A TECH
>>59762804Thanks. I try to be a helpful guy.
>>59760811so what you're saying is that the second it becomes unprofitable to mine BTC it will drop dead?
>>59760811>>59762817And what I mean by this of course, is that just because the macro shows the asset is oversold/ underbought doesn't mean that tradfi traders are going to trade it so. The fact that BTC isn't inversely correlated to Nasdaq means most holders (including the billions of dollars in ETF money) will happily sell at the first sign of fear, while they dump nice stocks like Nvidia and Facebook. Those dumb fucks don't even understand they have digital gold. So while long term I think there is the potential for this Bitcoin stock to do a lil sum sum, I'm going to look shorter term- ETF net flow (weekly) and base my sentiment analysis off that. That said, I'm a long term hodler and only swing a small stack for funsies, over 90% of my corn is in a cold wallet where it will stay, so if I'm wrong I never risk losing my multi coiner status. God bless you and keep you, fren
>>59760811Parsing.bumperino
Not quite Z but my mind is shhhhhhhhhhh'd
>>59762676Hashrate could go down, this is not impossible especially considering L2 solutions being actively developed and centralization / virtualization of BTC via exchange and banks. Again, in the long run: not your keys not your coins, same as with gold. That's the original Bitcoin bet. If you're not using Bitcoin on-chain, you're a retard, but hey, the thing is most people are actually retarded and only care about convenience (centralized exchanges).
guys its very simple and here is the truth: bitcoin can only go so far as "store of value" or "digital gold". period. that is why the trend is slowing down, people just don't value "digital gold" that much to go futhur. do we even give a fuck about real gold in the first place? no, what fucking normie uses gold? LOL. now, what normie is going to use digital gold? fucking no one. what do normies care about?watching tveatingand.... BUYING SHIT.so in the end it really doesnt matter about this miner production or blah blah, its simple supply and demand on the longest term. in order for bitcoin to grow furthur than an energy consuming ponzi scheme, because lets be real, that is what "digital gold" is, it must EVOLVE into "DIGITAL CASH" as SATOSHI intended in the first place. a FIAT replacement, the new standard.now here is the hard pill to swallow but pay attention: that is why ******* invented the zenon network in order to fix this issue. he seen the trend beginning to crab like a motha focka and seen bitcoin getting stuck in "digital gold HELL".am i starting to make sense? zenon network was built to save bitcoin. in order for bitcoin to progress into normie world, it needs to be used by normies to TRADE and SHOP like ACTUAL CASH. that is where the 99.9999% of the money is actually at. right now bitcoin is treated as SPARE CASH to POMP. it needs to be ACTUAL CASH to SPEND like satoshi intended in the first place or its value will be HARDCAPPED to investors playing investor games which is limited to a NICHE audience.do not forget the true enemy of bitcoin all along was FIAT, not gold. FIAT. bitcoin must start REPLACING fiat in order to continue, so it must be fast, it must be feeless (because cash already is), and it must be FRICTIONLESS (because normies get frustrated easily lol). think about this carefully anons.
>>59762993Fuck you and your Zenon shitcoin scam shilling, fuck your retarded schizoposting in every thread. Zenon has absolutely nothing to do with Satoshi and Bitcoin, and has been dead in the water for years. If anything were to replace or be used as an alternative to Bitcoin as actual digital money (on top of being actually created by one or many persons tied to Satoshi Nakamoto), that would be any coin based on the CryptoNote protocol, not your absolute scam. Guess what? The only coin currently and actively being used as digital money is XMR, which is the natural and most popular evolution of CryptoNote.Do you want to know why? It's because none of your reddit-spaced schizoblabber shit matter and because in the long run, people only care about the important things such as being able to store value without the state or anyone else being able to steal it (aka safety), knowing that what you will buy will not loose its value (aka the monetary basics and emission mechanisms of assets - aka not your central banking bullshit), and of course last but not least convenience (aka number of transactions per second, which is currently not 100% solved, but being worked on via L2 and improvements to Monero).Unfortunately I don't think Monero will actually "win" in the sense that it will become the universal digital currency, because of states and regulations. But I do believe adoption will continue to slowly grow as individuals realize privacy is also one of the most important things in life.
>>59763058bro, in order to beat fiat in normies eyes, it has to be BETTER to NORMIES. do they give a fuck about privacy? no.do they give a fuck about storing value from states? no.you do but you live in a BUBBLE.now what do normies want? they want it to be:faster than fiatfeeless because they dont want to see .23423434663 in their wallet or have any fees at all when cash is ALREADY FEELESSand frictionless because guess what, they already WAIT IN LINE AT THE BANK so the LADY CAN DO IT FOR THEM.only people like us care about store of value, privacy, decentalization, blah blah normies dont care bro. they want a better SHOPPING EXPERIENCE using better and smoother TECHNOLOGY. what makes you think they want to move from feeless to having fees when they already fumble at remembering seed phrases. this is why people like steve jobs succeed, they understand the NORMIE.
Interesting
>>59762800Even if true... (pic related)>>59762803Wether there are rebuttals to this which are of significant value. I am not confident what I consider fully logical is fact. So far, it seems that no one really has any significant contrapoints to this, making me more confident than before it is true. In the end of the game BTC dominance is a huge thing, and probabli it is tied to the economical reasons discussed in this thread. Regardless, I know many would not read the text at all, that's why I did my best to have the picture explain it. It also helps visualize for those who do read it.>>59762817Your haikus are growing on me (when not too obscene), mister "I deserve pure white vagina poster".>>59762834Not at all. It has been unpforitable to mine for about half the time BTC has existed, yet here we stll are. If your claim was true BTC would have died over a decade ago.
>>59762840Can you elaborate on your perspectives of the first half of your paragraph? I don't trade much either, but I do some for shits and giggles (have a position at 500% profit I opened about the time I started Bobo rekt in anus posting). I use mostly statistics for making my strategies. I've done a lot of research and Pivots vs a combination of gold and other markets, this seemed to work quite well overall, not that I use this strategy considering the drawdown, but correlating BTC going up and down with other markets has not yielded me any positive results. I'm sure it's possible, that's why I am curious to your observations. I call this "Saylor to Schiff ratio" (pic related). I should mention correlation with does not mean comparison to other markets has not yielded me positive results, only that Pivots (moving in the OPPOSITE direction) has.>>59762962Yes, a long term hash rate reduction is certainly possible even if I consider it for the next few decades unlikely. If this were to happen BTC's price should plummet in the longer term (if over 50% drop per 4 years).>>59762993>>59763106This is a discussion on economy and BTC, not a place for you to shill your shitcoins you despiccable scum. Get the fuck out.
>>59763144welp, my message is for the people who want to see the bigger picture. it seemed like an intelligent place to post it on this board compared to the rest of the board, that is all. do what you will with that information. enjoy your crab bubble.
>>59763161I am open to all bits of information and have requested you to elaborate. I did not say you are wrong, merely asked that you share a more intricate view of your observations, while sharing mine with you. Sorry about the deleted post, wanted to add some stuff so deleted and reposted.
>>59763106Normies only care about consooming, I'll give that to the retarded autist that you are. Anything that will replace fiat needs to be at least as convenient as fiat, sure. Still, a lot of people continue to prefer cash than using their iPhones for certain transactions (not only the illegal ones), do you think you can understand why? I live in the EU shithole, in a country where it is technically illegal to pay for anything above 1000 euros with cash without declaring it to Daddy State. This wasn't the case a couple years ago. In a couple years from now, things will get much worse since the EU states only know one way to (pretend to) get out of their retarded debt: taxing the normies more and more, while importing massive amounts of thirdies like you. You think only the rich will be impacted? Lmao.I don't care about 90% of "my" people being enslaved (like in USSR) and mindless consooming poverty-style in their communist shithole. Smartest people will get the fuck out and will move everything into crypto before it's too late (and it kinda already is for the EU). If by any miracle the EU implodes and my country manages to 180 and elects a libertarian leader, well then things will be alright. Crypto isn't a religion, it's a tool we need to embrace to free ourselves from the state. The fact that BTC is worth what it's worth is prove that (some) people care about this shit. Pure speculators will get the rope.Your normie theory only works until the state goes overboard and starts to tax everything and steal your wage, inheritance money, and the air you breath. Think URSS style. Now get the fuck outta my board.
>>59763106>>59763209(cont.) Btw, you do realize most normies do not even save up money and have 0 investments, being poor as fuck as result? They are NOT the target audience and we do NOT need them onboard for crypto growth. They WILL be the last to adopt crypto, exactly like the biggest EU boomers are only now adopting payment by credit and debit card instead of "good ol' cash and checks". The same boomers that keep commenting on mainstream media websites how BTC is fake and has no value. Truly the most retarded generation ever, but you should not care about them, because They. Will. Always. Be. Late. And. Die. Eventually.
>>59763209well i did not know about the EU situation so thank you for sharing. although it just means it is even more important for zenon and bitcoin to succeed as separation of state and money is important to many and the original intent of bitcoin. sorry for hyjacking the thread for a little i guess i am a little too hyped up although if i made my own thread that thread would get shut down for some reason cuz 4chan censorship. anyway good luck to you all and years from now when the things i said come true just remember zenon schizo poster was right all along. kek.
I don't want to read all that.Will my 1.4 BTC get me into mid 6 figures or nah?
>>59763275this run I mean, don't care about future runs
>>59763256yes normies will be the last to adopt, look at the btc chart that is why we are at the crab part of the half rainbow. all the non normies are already priced in. where was the alt run huh? like i said the time is now to evolve to normie standards or welcome to crab world.
>>59763268>>59763287You can benefit from crab market easily since the shit is manipulated as fuck by MM, only need to look at piss snake and RSI to get the lows and highs, then it's simple: buy red sell green, don't long, don't short, don't leverage. Easy af, if market keeps crabbing of course. Again, we don't need normies since the normies susceptible to get in at this stage are already priced in. That's why retards are begging institutions and corporations to pour more fiat in. We don't need any of that. Exchanges, whales, and hedge funds are the only one capable of deciding where we go next and when the game's over until next halving. Until then, they rekt retarded people leveraging since it's much easier to do so by keeping the market crabbing indefinitely.
>>59763331true but how can you separate state from money with the normies, basically the 99%, still supporting the state? see the conundrum? normies have to get in eventually or its a failed project.
>>59763287There was no and will be no "altseason" indeed like every retard on reddit was spouting for the last couple of months. 99% of alts are over since last bullrun, except for some very specific alts, which are only hyped because of "utility" or memes. That is because normies were burnt on the last bullrun, I have lots of normies I know IRL who lost a lot of money on stupid alts like AVAX, etc. and that won't be coming back (except for BTC, and they are already in).
>>59763359well i believe there was no alt run because the well aka the interest/demand for crypto in general has run dry. it can only go so far as ponzis and coins you cant spend on real things imo. that is why it's turned into las vegas gambling which is a niche market compared to something like world wide currency, where its supposed to be.
>>59763355You don't need to separate the two. True normies will follow whatever they are told by the state, corporations, or their friends. If new leaders emerge and impose new stuff, people will follow since most people just want peace and tranquility within their own little social circle. If it doesn't work (see El Salvador), it's because the technology or implementation isn't there yet, or that it's too early. El Salvador is actually proof that you don't need normies. Again, we don't need crypto to be enforced by states anyway since people can choose by themselves whether they believe in it (by holding or spending) or not.If you're only interested in quick x100 and line-goes-up, then yeah you should probably consider playing casino instead, since normies getting massively and rapidly into BTC (or any other crypto) will NEVER happen. That is, even if Trump, Musk, or whatever billionaire's dick you like to suck were to tweet "BUY BTC" at the same time. Things will be progressive and slow, but in the long run, as it stands, BTC will outperform any other asset that exists and existed on the planet (no, your shitcoins will have disappeared by then, so no, them doing x100 in 2017 does not count).
>>59763465never say never bro. people thought normies would never use computers then steve jobs made the iphone and the ipad. thats all crypto needs, that iphone moment bro is what im trying to say.
>>59763408>interest/demand for crypto has run dryLook at BTC/USD curve nigga, we've been around the ATH for weeks now. Since supply is limited and more or less constant after each halving, and by looking at the production cost vs market price ratio pic from OP I'd say the demand and hype is still pretty good (production cost / market price = 0.9). Nowhere near the 0.5 factors from previous cycles, sure, but it's there. If the demand was truly 100% dry, this ratio would be way higher, mining would become unprofitable, hashrate would go down, and we would enter bear market as prices crash. This has not happened yet (but may).Interest in crypto has not disappeared, it has moved and changed, like all things. If you want normies on board (you seem to care about these retards), it's actually a good thing. Right now bankers and family financial advisors are finally being allowed to propose their boomer clients to put 5 to 10% of their savings into BTC via ETFs.
>>59763526uhm does this chart look like momentum is increasing or decreasing to you? lol, its a half rainbow bro, thats just reality.
>>59763490Crypto "iPhone"-moment may or may not happen short or medium term, but does not impact current state of things and fundamentals of BTC in any way. If you believe something will happen and you know where to look and what to buy, sure thing, go ahead.Same with NVDA. Its value is mostly driven by the fact that there are no competitors on sight producing such efficient chips. If a massive scientific breakthrough was to happen (imagine Deepseek but on the hardware side, x100), then its value would be severely impacted. What is the probability that some company comes up with a better way to design chip and manages to convince the whole datacenter market in the timescale of 1 year, 2 years, 10 years? Well, that's a fine question but since nobody knows for sure, it makes no sense to ask it (right now). Take profits while you can and move on when you see better competitors.
>>59763559If you disregarded everything that comes after 2nd green block at 2nd green block, same for third, and same for fourth, you would see that it always looks like this was the end of the ride. Just some pumping would already bring the chart to a completely new shape. Sadly, we can only say what the shape really is once it has concluded, and it is very unlikely to have concluded so fast, considering it takes about a year and a half from the halving to the high historically cyclically speaking when looking at the previous 2 bull runs. Besides, we have already concluded massive confluence that only keeps increasing in terms of market price and production price, so you can clearly expect the highs (and lows) to not be as extreme as the past. That does not say price won't go up, just that it probably won't go up as much as before. Gains far exceeding the regular stonks market average of top 500 assets are still very much on the table. Either way, the true shape of the rainbow will only become clear once the high of the cycle is in.
>>59763566yeah that is why im saying zenon, i believe zenon can take it there if you look at it's architectural design. im not just saying because i believe ******* invented it, i've deep dived even the tech for a long time. we will see how well it does long term but it has the best shot imo.
>>59763581welp look like its going into crab mode to me if you keep it simple. half rainbow into crab mode simple and plain. thats the current trend.
>>59763559>currently is green, aka "growth">high probability we're between growth and small bubble right nowWe're currently in a (weak) bull market and have been for the last past year, and I think everyone and the fundamentals agree with that statement, that's not even up for debate. Price is 150% since 1Y, smartest of the smartest (or luckiest of the luckiest) people are at x10 already, monthly RSI is relatively (but not too) high, production cost to market price ratio is still relatively low, no classic BR top indicator has greenlit, and yet people are still waiting. Most impatient of them get rekt on leveraging. So no, demand has not dried up, and there is still momentum (even though it's weak compared to previous cycles).I'm not saying the bullrun is only starting or that it's ending, that's the MM to decide. Only that demand is still currently there. But from there, things could go a lot of ways. I'm personally expecting crabbing until people are truly demoralized and capitulate en masse, followed by a top to 120-140K with retail FOMO, before a strong correction (though not as heavy as the previous ones). But I'm just guessing there.
>>59763606I used to think like you when I was younger "BTC is overpriced, I want something with more potential" so I bought worthless shitcoins that didn't even go up as much as BTC. Now I am older, wiser, and find that almost certainly, if not certainly, the risk to reward is best with big daddy BTC for the economical reasons we have been discussing in this thread. Please stop shilling your shitcoins here, this is a discussion of economics and BTC. Noone is going to buy your shitcoin from this thread, even if you are right (you are not) then you will still not help anyone by them joining your supposed moon train.
>>59763581Anyone has some real life insights on why would the pump only happen a year and half after halving, historically, and not shortly after? Or is it pure whale coordination?
>>59763616The current trend is the rainbow looking like it's finished, and then it is not after the run is over. As I explained, it looked like this several times before, only for it to break that pattern. So the trend is actually that your observations get shattered. Until the bull run has has definitely concluded, there is NO way of telling this. People who think like you would have permanently exited the markets 2 cycles ago and here we are 2 cycles later with massive gains.
>>59763606Good luck with your bags anon, but if I were you I'd move on to something more promising than this dead, obscure irrelevant shitcoin. Even if they are not shit (I doubt it), fundamentals are not everything and you need to build hype and trust with a narrative. I'm not sure larping as aliens and pretending Satoshi is behind the project is a good strategy but that's just me.
>>59763629aight well seems like you closed your mind without any real diligence so no reason to go futher on the zenon potential. alright welp nice talking to you ima go sleep but it was a nice civil debate i enjoyed it. just remember zenon schizo bro years from now when i was right all along ;)
>>59763633It pumps since the bottom a year into the bear market so it's been pumping for a while. We've already gone from 17K to 100K+. This was part of teh pump. It is merely that cyclically, historically, the high of the pump was about 18 months after the halving. As for reasons, peopel want to take profit, perhaps some conditioning as well by whales so that it becomes a self fulfilling prophecy of sorts? Noone can know for sure and I don't think there is a logical reason to conclude exactly why with high confidence. It doesn't really matter though, why patterns happen, it mostly matters that they DO happen.
>>59763650If Zenon ends up making it, I'll make sure to post ">Schizo-Zenon anon was right" with screncaps of this thread regularly. Good luck and be smart nigga.
>>59763656Captain obvious here: if you know cycles happen but cannot time or scale them, it's pointless. I was just trying to find the logic behind the "cycles" not to coincide with exactly the moment of halvings (at which the production costs should more or less double).
>>59763706I can time and scale them. That's why I said 18 months of bull market after halving. One year of dumping. And then the bottom is in. Here's a halving dependent strategy using the same exact times in market, in bull market, and the bottoms and highs (roughly). As for the reasons why, there could be many reasons, as I said, and many factors I didn't even mention. Just none that I can put my finger on and say with high certainty that it's the real trigger. I can tell you WHAT the trigger is (halving, as I have gone into detail to deeply explain the economics behind it). Regardless, there is risk in everything, you just take the goods shots you get that look like they have a decent risk to reward ratio and that's that. This timing and scaling all being true historically, I made this strategy BEFORE the last previous bull run and it held PERFECTLY. Again, there is a chance this cycle will be different, but for now, the trend is your friend until the very end, and this is the trend. I don't think anyone will ever have a very very solid explanation as to the bear season, maybe because its illogical, and this pattern is bound to break eventually as market prices correlate more and more to the production price?
>>59763750Is your strategy (on the last and current cycle) better than simply holding? Looks like your last "Halving Long" signal is late, due to the fact that this cycle, the market pumped in anticipation of the halving. What's your short signal, t0+18 months simply? What about your short closing signal?
>>59763750>>59763785Oh I see, short closing signal is just one year after shorting. Well, that's naive, may or may not work in the future. Try using some monthly RSI and power law in the mix maybe
>>59763803I have said that it might not hold in the future, so far it is though. I have explained my oppenness to reversal for this and far more. Answering to you would be parroting things I have already explained. Perhaps there is more to what I said than you think?
>>59763813Regardless a bunch of potential self fulfilling prophecies are occuring simultaniously, such as the pi cycle top being so far away. I think looking at my findings that many others have found and kept silent, and other findings that people who put money up use, that are kept relatively secret while many know them, may have great psychological effect. But as time goes by, the average person becomes more aware of the fundementals of the economics and self fulfilling prophecies, which might add strength to both. Regardless, I see no logical reasoning at all for this cycle to be shorter, if at all, it would be longer, so anyone thinking it's over right now is probably wrong and will probably regret it :/
>>59763813Nah nigga it's good. I think that simple cycle time indicators like you showed, on top of basic economical ones like RSI indicators (including Pi Cycle etc.), supply/demand (production/market) model are what to follow mostly, along with on-chain activity like long-term holder supply, hashrate and shit. Liquidation maps are always interesting to get an idea of the different floors.Log-charts like the Rainbow halving chart and the Long-term power law model would tend to agree with your implied bullish prediction that we are nowhere near the top, but like always, nobody knows for sure if "this time is different" or not.
>>59762557>Because you say production cost rises to market price, but then that price in excess of production cost induces hash rate increases?Yeah, hashrate increases increase production cost. When BTC trades above cost, miners are incentivized to increase hashrate to secure a greater share of the new BTC, which leads to overall higher production costs.During bull markets miners either don’t have enough time to increase hashrate (production cost) to market price or caution due to the known peaking behavior of bitcoin
>>59760811Interesting thread, have a bumpNot sure about using these ratios between cost of production and market price to predict anything, if thats what you were trying to say. Would have to look into that but its kind of hard to discern your point desuThere's been done some research that implies cost of production can act as a "lower bound" of the fundamental value of bitcoin though. - Garcia et al. 2014
>>59763842Here is my philosophy in this life: you could go on a diet as a fatty which would be an absolutely brilliant choice statistically speaking to increase your life expectancy and still through freak evolution of the butterfly effect initiate a sequence in which you get hit by a bus in a week. You can make the best choice and lose, you can make a retarded choice and win.
>>59763890I get it, anon. What you are trying to tell me here is to not give a fuck and start making retarded choices in life. Thanks
>>59763890Still, rationally speaking a fatty would have a much higher chance to live long if he stops being fat, and this can be rationally and deterministically explained by a clear sequence of events in the human body. Given our information on how the human body works, the expected value of his lifetime is increased with 100% certainty as a result of him not being fat anymore. Does not mean he won't be hit by a bus, but the expected value increases for sure.Bitcoin price cannot (yet?) be fully explained rationally with indicators and metrics at hand. You cannot with 100% precision estimate the probability of making the right or wrong choice when buying or selling BTC (some try to do this for softer DCA strategies, see AlphaSquared, it's interesting). In other words, given the current information on the world and Bitcoin, you cannot know with 100% certainty that buying or selling using X or Y signal will increase your expected portfolio value.TL;DR: investing in your health is a much safer better than investing in highly volatile, fundamentally unpredicatable assets
>>59763936*bet
>>59763909 Kek, you can't not be joking. >>59763936 Regarding your first chink of text, you have made the exact observations that were intended to be observed. It is clearly always the better choice to enter positions in which the statistical likelihood of achieving health, happiness, and fortune is likely and the opposite is not. However sadly in life we must accept that even making the best move can result in loss. I chose being a fatty because losing weight as a fatty is a very smart logical choice and thus a prime example of an immensely positive risk to reward ratio for health. I find it important to respect losing if you made the right move and not break your head about it. Some people around you will make retarded choices and get rich, don't beat yourself about it, it's just some outliers from a probabilistic perspective. Regarding your second chunk, yes, it cannot, but I ran a diversified portfolio with statistically proven strategies as an experiment and I'm almost at year two with about 70% profit which is close to the best long term yearly performers. This is get billionaire when you're old level increases considering it's a diversified portfolio based off high statistical likelihood formulas. And still, using the bear market end timing relative to halving strategy would have been consistently now for the I think fourth time the best entry, better than any formulas. Except one which entered long at 22 and never exited. It has about 15 trades yet sometimes does not exit a position for years. Regardless, yes, the probability of becoming healthier through defatification is far bigger than stonks timing. If you're reading this and are a fatty lose some weight.
>>59764027>entered long at 22k and never exitedThat would be me if I wasn't retarded and had more liquidity in my early 20s.Hell, first time I entered BTC was to buy stupid shit on dark markets at around 200 euros per BTC. Bought around 4 BTC total, spent them all. Can seem stupid with the hindsight, but at the time, believe me given the information and context keeping it wouldn't have been a very smart move considering the giga-volatility. Literally nobody wanted to keep BTC, people just wanted to spend them. Still, had I been in my thirties I could have spent a couple hundreds more and left 1 or 2 as spare without looking.Thankfully I'm not (and have never been) a fatty and have been investing in my own health for a couple years now. Does not mean I won't get early cancer but at least I tried, as you said. Would be curious to hear about your diversified portfolio (which stocks? any bonds? other assets?).
>>59764083Crypto is my main focus for market analysis. Volatility is good for profits making. Not hypervolatile of course, but a bit of the old volatility is great for profits making. If something doesn't move much you greatly decrease your potential to make a profit. In the end even when I find good formulas for other markets, they are so stable I have to use 2X or 3X leverage for the same results (and similar drawdown) so it's all the same for me in the end I guess I can make money with anything as long as I get to analyze some markets you can throw 10 at me and I'll find some good formulas for 2-3 of them. I have some formulas for other markets I just don't really care much about them.
>>59764141Hey man, u seem knowable. Do you got any book recs for someone who wants to learn how to make your own formulas and stuff? I dont really care about money, I just wanna master the flow of the market
>>59764414Sorry, no book recommendations, I learned what I know on my own. This being said I could answer some more specific questions for you if you want, but I'm going out drinking so will respond in several hours.
>>59762993False. “Digital gold” i.e. “abstract economic unit” demand is the supermajority of value in gold, equities & land. Gold has limited ‘financial capacity’ as it has elastic supply, as do equities (what happened when nvda went parabolic? They diluted) What would happen if everyone tried to dump equities for gold? Gold price shoots up, but gold production also shoots up, there’s 2% annual mining inflation @ $2.5k/oz, this could be 5% or more @ $25k/oz. This negative feedback isn’t present in bitcoin, its perfect inelastic supply enables it to function as an arbitrarily large economic unit. Indeed, btc only becomes more useful (and therefore attracts greater demand) the larger it gets, as volatility declines with mcap
>>59765831Guys I think (no irony) this might be the smartest poster in this thread. The boldness, the intelligence, the efficiency...
>>59766473All I know is that I know nothing, and that BTC is going to infinity.
>>59765831It's a great store of value but that isn't enough, something being less elastic doesn't give it more "financial capacity." Being a store of value is only one of the functions of currency and one of the factors of adoption. There's was much more inflation in silver than gold historically and yet silver coinage is what made the world wealthy in the early modern era. That and the credit revolution in England. Nothing to do with having an inelastic supply, exactly the opposite actually. I'm not as bearish on bitcoin as the guy you responded to and you have a good grasp on the fundamentals of bitcoin but I don't see what that has to do with the growth of the asset class.
>>59761082kek i love that lil nigga like you wouldnt believeand same, im also an eth maxi. except i still buy and hold some btc. well, wbtc :^)
>>59768499is it just that people will keep mining as long as it makes money, but there's no built in inflation the way there is with gold? What gives it it's value besides the cost of production?
>>59768525Value is in the mind. If enough people value something, there doesn't need to be a "reason" as such. That goes for everything, by the way. Africans can be found using conflict diamonds as hammers because their values are not aligned with ours. Bitcoin has long since reached the point where the users are the value, not the commodity itself.
>>59761082Honest question: What makes you think that a the ongoing two year trend of eth dying to btc is going to reverse?
>>59769120>thinkETH bagholders do not think, they worship their guru and pray that their shitcoin pumps out of nowhere so they can finally exit. ETH fundamentals in 2020+5 are not looking good, and the hype is dying out. More generally, people are finally realizing that smart contracts applications are really niche and that the only working usecases are betting / gambling / casino, as well as centralized financial institutions. The only actual monetary application would be very basic, i.e. smart contracts as a multi-party transaction contract, which are already handled by BTC or XMR via multi-sig.I unironically hope for my fellow ETH bagholders that their shitcoin finally pumps one last time via manipulation so that they can see the light and embrace BTC. But like most people rn I doubt this ever happens.
>>59769514ETHBTC's ratio dump is probably the best example of the value of proof of work I have seen. It's like doing medical research with a placebo vs real medicine to find out if the medicine really works or not.
>>59769879PoS is a scam and has been since the beginning. It's the literal equivalent of>2 more weeks guys!!!!!My guts told me this since people started shilling ETH around 2019 and I'm glad I listened in the longrun. Call me retard, but I literally never heard a satisfying explanation (i.e. not schizobabble) of how PoS works. PoW on the other hand is easy to understand as fuck if you are not retarded.
>>59769899Also, the fact that PoW can only be attacked by a compute power attack (quite unlikely) while PoS can be attacked if someone manages to get rich enough should tell you which is safer. It's literally protection by work vs oligarchy.>inb4 "getting 51% of the ETH coins is not plausible"What are centralized exchanges again? Oh right.
>>59769899>>59769914
>>59768758The reason people value something is what drives flow in the short term. Even if it's just market sentiment, that's what creates those bubbles. Cycles might depend on value relative to production cost, but what determines the magnitude of those bubbles?
>>59769914When decentralized exchanges exist, why would anyone send their ETH to an exchange? BTC cannot exist at societal scale without centralized exchanges.
>>59770016Trump dodged a bullet to shill Bitcoin to the world and you ask these questions
>>59770095>BTC cannot exist at societal scale without centralized exchanges.wrong. you can wrap your btc as wbtc/tbtc/cbbtc and use it that way :)
>>59769914>It's literally protection by work vs oligarchy.actually it's "literally" protection by requiring an investment of tons of money vs protection by requiring an investment of tons of moneythe only difference is that with eth, it's like an attacker's mining farm is burned to the ground every time they get slashed and they have to start over. meanwhile if they manage to 51% attack btc that's it, it's just over. kek
>>59769120>MUH RATIO OF ETH TO BTCfudders gonna fud kekhow does it feel knowing you missed out on an extra 1000% return on investment?
>>59770095bitcoin spot trading will soon be launching on Hyperliquid (dex/L2)
>>59760811asic miners not accounted for. china makes like 30% margin on them. so why you even care about the cost to mine bitcoin when its actually always been profitable to mine bitcoin in china. t. buy monero
Finally a decent thread in this cesspool
What I don't really get about Keynesian economics is the concept that it incentivizes the rotation of currency by affecting the market in ways where it makes it easier to spend, but doesn't this overall affect the market negatively as well since it creates a dependency on the practices of affecting the markets instead of just waiting it out, as would normally be what is done in cases of recession?
>>59771104yes and keynesians don't want you to know this.
>>59771108this is why crypto is such a valuable asset, since its impossible for one government to inject cash into the economy(effectively stealing money from the average person and giving it to stock market via QE or to the banks)
>>59760811boomp
>>59770899What, in gold mining the cost of labour of the machines used to mine doesn't matter? It's normal. Also labour, transport, this is all part of production cost. It's only normal a company makes profit for selling goods, no? >>59771104Yes Keynesian economics is a joke. From my understanding Austrian economics would just let those companies go bankrupt (survival of the fittest). Government overinterfering with economic models allows companies that should go bankrupt to stay afloat at taxpayer's expense.
>>59771647>Government overinterfering with economic models allows companies that should go bankrupt to stay afloat at taxpayer's expense.There's got to be a logical reason for this, though, it's not like they are a bunch of chumps sitting around making bad decisions constantly. Maybe it could have something to do with them believing that if they bail out specific businesses that they might overtime be able to produce more value than organically allowing them to go bankrupt and making space for another business to take their places.
>>59771716it’s because they don’t want economic prosperity for the country they live in, they want power over the country they live in. that is why they continue with policies of all kinds that seem so obviously bad for the country/people. after everything we’ve seen you can’t possibly still believe these people are “public servants” lmao
>>59772020Yes, because that is one of the main principles behind economy, power over the people.
>>59771716>It's not like gubermentZ are a bunch of chumps sitting around making bad decisionsStick around, kid
>>59772020I believe this also. Eventually most of the money flows itno the hands of bigger companies, and the system is rigged for them because they bribe politicians and lobby them.
>>59771064As a Brainlet I have to agree I always leave these type of threads with a slight upgrade of intelligence. Thank you for that bros.
>>59770780I dunno wtf that is but I'll bet all my garlicoin that it's more centralized than any ETH L2.
>>59760811Great thread btw, OP. I’m a midwit who bought BTC form advice from a rich friend. He explained its importance and it sounded good to me. Bought a whole BTC in October 2023. This volatile fucking thing tested my hands a few times, I would panic and consider dumping. Thankfully my friend told me to just set it and forget it. So far I’m happy with my purchase. Plan on holding for at least 10 years. In your opinion should I just keep what I got or DCA? If I DCA I’ll need to stop my contributions to my 401k
>>59760811>economical perspective>a shit databaselol - since it cant scale and cant parse there is no discussion to be had
>>59772706I really can't say. As you might see if you read the entire thread, I admit this might be a supercycle. However historically there was about 75% dump from all time high in bear market and it is more than possible it will happen again. If you enter now you might be in loss for a while if there is another year of bear market once this bull market ends. I would have said absolutely yes to buy at 20-30 even 40K, bthat was a "green zone", however now we are in yellow orange zone. Certainly not red (lots of upwards potential). There is no real way of predicting the future, if you don't mind possibly being in loss in a few years before breaking even again and then forever in profit, buy now. If you don't have the nerves for that wait for the bottom of bear market (about a year into the dumping from ATH) but if this is a supercycle you'd have missed the train. I guess your third option is to buy now and sell around October if you don't thinkt his will be a supercycle.
>>59772960I'll buy at 50k max I want one bitcoin to hodl
>>59773348We are probably never going to 50K again so you sir are priced out.
>>59773381Dw it will
>>59773565With the ratio of production price to market price historically peaking at about 1.45:1 I would be quite skeptical. Depending on how high we go about current price or about 20K lower is on the table. Cost of production will most likely become about 150K or more during this bull run, at that ratio 50K is very unlikely.
>>5977334850k is the next 10k
>>59772960>However historically there was about 75% dump from all time high in bear market and it is more than possible it will happen againit's possible but i think it's incredibly unlikely with the amount of institutional adoption that it's garnered, and momentum is continuing to build there
>>59763465I trade shitcoins to get enough fiat to finally get a good amount of bitcoin, but I refuse to pay $100k. Am I wrong in thinking that we should be able to see $40-50k again?
>>59762800Least spastic biz user
>>59768499>something being less elastic doesn't give it more "financial capacity."False. As I already explained, gold cannot function as Sole Denominator as a great increase in demand would result in a great increase in supply. For an extreme example, look at food: everyone needs it, everyone demands it, yet if we tried to use it as money it would not store value as supply not price would increase.>silver made the world wealthyKek. Silver is the OG shitcoin. Silver was used as currency as it was what was available. You are conflating correlation with causation.>functions of currencyBitcoin is an abstract economic unit (Money) not a medium of exchange (currency), MoE has little value as there is no net demand for MoE. The fact we used BTC as an MoE while it was still worthless should tell you something.
>>59768758>Value is in the mindUltimate midwit take. To believe such is to believe value, and therefore price, are arbitrary, yet price carries information. How can price carry information of price is arbitrary? It cannot. Ergo, price, and therefore Value, cannot be arbitrary. Indeed they are not, both are mechanical, the problem of supply and demand.
>>59770095>BTC cannot exist at societal scale without centralized exchanges.And? Holding btc does not grant control over the network. You’re aware stock exchanges are also centralized, right? Centralization has advantages, doubly so for exchanges. The key is to ensure this necessary market structure does not compromise the security of the network, meth skelely ignored this to pander to greenfags and in the process killed eth
>>59770458>if they manage to 51% attack btc that's it, it's just over.51% attack on btc only allows the attacker to clawback there own transaction, dumdum. You thought it allowed arbitrary charges to the network, didn’t you? Hahaha. >actually it's "literally" protection by requiring an investment of tons of money vs protection by requiring an investment of tons of moneyNo. Attacking BTC requires an huge investment of REAL RESOURCES, an attack on mETH requires The Fed to magic up numbers on a screen and buy high while selling low.
>>59771716>There's got to be a logical reason for thisYeah, the logical reason is that wish to parasite off you>>59772020This anon gets it
>>59774282Haha, I should not tipsyposts/problem/product
>>59773946Probably, yes.>>59774282Based perspective.
>>59775008give it to me straight, when do you think we will reach this cycle's ath and what would be the range? if we're in a supercycle, don't we have further to go?
>>59760855Why would the production price increase when they lower the electricity price?
>>59775150If supercycle then there will just be a huge increase in hash rate consistently and price won't drop more than 50% from ATH. If no supercycle and it follows the regular trend then the high will be around 550 days post-halving which would equate to the end of October 2025. I would like to give a more specific range but my targets are 200K-400K. We are almost certainly going higher supercycle or not.>>59775173Because the hash rate would increase.
>>59762557>>59763845>>59763890>>59763842bretty good anons, pretty good.>>59760811>Teh2005 vibes
>>59775276I've used "teh" 3 times and each time it was an accident but I realized before posting and left it anyway. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qItugh-fFgg
Eh I expect at least one more ftx level crash before it becomes mainstream
>>59764041>If you're reading this and are a fatty lose some weight.Best advice in the whole thread
bearish
>>59775576It’s finally time to rug China.
Should I invest in Bitcoin?
Why is there not a huge jump in production cost at each halving?>can even supply you with the formula for thisYes please.
>>59777686except there is. most if not all miners spent months mining at a loss last year because the price was lower than it was supposed to be compared to its manufacturing costs, so a lot of smaller miners got out of the market and the bigger ones bought their hardware and got bigger and therefore better at surviving the drought>Captcha: XRPW8T
>>59775267>Because the hash rate would increase.Is it possible that the hash rate could decrease in the future?
>>59760811We used to talk about this all the time on here but not it's like nobody has heard or seen these carts before :'(
>>59777686But there is (pic related and marked area). production cost doubled. Formula (top percentage of total hash rate by country) and electricity cost by country included.>>59777810It has gone down many times but not permanently. Everything is possible regardless even if unlikely.
its funny watching you guys spin your wheels talking about hashrates and production rates and all this bullshitlet me keep it simple for you, this is how markets function:every celebrity including the PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES AND HIS WHORE WIFE all dropped their own coins, and every single kid was trading sol shitcoins.now - heres the real truth of markets - and it really is this simple1. if everybody is already in the market, they're long, they're holding, then who is left to come in and buy at a higher price? nobody. thats when price goes down2. conversely, once everybody has dumped and flipped bearish, and the market is a graveyard, who is left to come in and sell it down lower? nobody. thats when price moves upthats it. it really is that simple and applies to every single asset class on the planet
>>59778330refer to the wall street cheat sheet. the problem is that you guys are so retarded and blinded by bias that you cant see whats right in front of your faces
>>59778330>>59778334Just the fact you are so emotional already makes your opinion less valuable than someone who has logical perspectives on things. I don't hate people who might be average at best, but I do dislike them when they think they are smart (you are the lather).> muh wall street cheat sheetFucking pathetic. Just holding BTC in the last 10 years has given per year on average better returns than 99% of WS hedge funds.
>>59778330there is trillions of sidelined $ from boomers, pensions funds, corporate treasuries, family offices, hedge funds who have capital to allocate. "kids" trading on sol shit are irrelevant
BTC 240K July 2025, which may lead into a supply squeeze no earlier than Q3 2025.
>>59778330>>59778334Trillions in new nominal capital flows into global markets every year, a number that increases every year through monetary expansion. If BTC only captures a share 10% the size of gold’s, BTC goes to millions by 2040. If it captures 5% of ETF inflows, it's breaking $1m before 2030. @$200k BTC only needs $34bn in annual inflows to offset mining. To put BTC into perspective: $270bn of gold is mined every year, gold market needs $270bn in net inflows every year just to tread water. Bitcoin subsidy halves every 4yrs, so net nominal inflows necessary to support a given price also half every 4yrs.>b-but muh industrial demand for muh shiny rock!We have 500 YEARS of functional demand for gold sitting idle above ground, we mine a DECADE of functional use every year. Manufacturing plays zero part in gold price, other than the ~$25bn in annual demand (10% of mining production). Gold still needs ~$250bn/year in net inflows sans ALL functional use just to tread water.
>>59780108I think you are more intelligent than me, not that I am that smart. But I applaud your logic, not just for this post, but many others.
>>59760855this man has done his research. i follow stansberry research and he mentioned that texas is a growing capital for BTC farms due to cheaper energy.
>>59765831all i know if once BTC reaches 1M, im dumping that shit for gold.
>>59769514everything ETH can do ICP can do far better, as well as shitlana. but ICP has a horrible track record so far despite the technological abilities so whatever.
>>59760811>>59760855Cost to mine it depends on how many people are mining it, which depends on the price.The divergences between cost to mine and price must be because of short term inelasticity in the supply of miners, because manufacturing those machines takes time.I'm just not sure if it's an exploitable stat arb opportunity.Longing or shorting the price is easy, but longing or shorting the cost to mine isn't. You could set up your own mining rigs, but other people are going to want to do that too so the price of mining rigs is going to go up a lot quicker than they can manufacture them.And nothing says that the price HAS to come down rather than the mining costs going up.I think it's mostly that the divergence is caused by bubbles, and I'm not sure the cost to mine adds any alpha vs simply tracking the divergence from a log regression.
>>59781671>The divergences between cost to mine and price must be because of short term inelasticity in the supply of miners, because manufacturing those machines takes time.Even more true when you factor in miner production must be exponentional to keep up with demand if trends continue. As for the rest you raise very good points.
>>59774282I never said the price was arbitrary. What information does price transmit? Think about it. That's right - what other people think the value of something is. Key word here is THINK. As in the value is information in their heads, being transmitted in the form of numerical information to your head. The market is a pool of collective opinions, or thoughts, about what stuff should cost. The item being valued doesn't matter AT ALL. The value only exists, and can only exist, in the mind of an interested party. Because price is not a real thing, you understand that, don't you? The same way that the price tag is not the product.
why is it pumping
>>59781935see >>59781974
>>59778330It seems that this is the beginning of when large investment firms and governments begin to pour trillions in to BTC and other established coins.Companies will want to mimic MSTR when they see how successful they become but likely won't be able to catch up. Companies will be racing to buy up as much as possible before BTC price explodes and they're completely priced out.The UK, for example, doesn't allow crypto ETFs or regulated crypto investment opportunites. Once this is relaxed (it inevetibly will be because it will be taxable) the capital investment which could come from the UK alone is potentially trillions. Other EU countries have already started to adopt crypto investment schemes. How much is worldwide investment potential if boomer pension funds can pump money in? The US government could, in the near future, start buying up billions, if not trillions, of dollars worth of coins. Other countires will follow suit. China and Saudi are still locked out, how much potential investment is there?The time for the individual hodlers is drawing to a close. It will be a new era in the next few years.
>>59781935I find it humorous you ask why the most bullish asset in modern history is pumping.>>59782432I am surprised how many intelligent things were said in this thread. No joke. It seems that not being a retard in the OP goes a long way in drawing in intelligent responses. Maybe I should do this more often. Thanks for sharing your based perspective.
>>59762993this seems like the first person to actually give it some real thought. there will be a digital replacement for the USD at some point. It won't be btc. it might be XRP.the real big brain move here is buying stuff with intrinsic value. like gold, ammo and RE.