Added the graph and just had some random questions
>>61432909I made that thread.What is in your noodle?
>>61432909I see the spiked that was discussed. But I also see that an even larger spike occurred on 10/31, was this initial red flag of oh shit there's a liquidity crisis or was this when they initially started to print under QT? Thanks bros
>>61432915Hey bro, thanks man, also is it worth adding the volume one? I know thisbis tardish but from here how do I correlate where the printed money is going? Maybe that's the wrong question....lastly any random anon that reads this, ive been trading since early 2017, poor as fuck, and I shit you not i learned everything about trading from 4chan. Fail fast and get called a nigger fag frens, it's the only way.
nice thread great words didnt read how does a retard profit from this thanks and go fuck yourself
it spiked againI give it until Friday, at best Monday and then its literally over for the line go up on anything over the past 35 - 54 years.>>61432922yes that was the signal to runThat was when smart money sent their liquidity into jurisdiction with no bail-in clauses
>>61432922Is not so much the indidivual spikes, but the general trend, and over all, the frequency of the spikes that looks bad. A single spike doesnt mean much, a lot of spikes in a quarter is bad news.
>>61432939Do the work thats how, I've remained profitable literally just by reading book recommendations from here and paying attention to the very very few good threads that pop up every now and then. This board used to be so much better, so you sir, go fuck yourself. I want to learn in a non echo chamber and discern things for myself
>>61432939And so there's no further fucking confusion
>>61432979could be lite skinned indian, asian, north african, midlle easternerYour hand is worth nothing
>>61432915>>61432950Thanks frens we will get this board back eventually
>>61432937This data only applies to relative long term trading, it gives some indication that liquidity conditions are getting weak. It has been proven that crypto reacts to global liquidity in around 12 weeks and the sp500 in about 6 months. That is why i am not very bullish for 2026.
>>61432988Fair enough
>>61432995back for what? 4chan is a dead web 1.5 website, with a bunch of alcoholic GenXer, a few millenials, three zoomers and 300 turd worlders that are sub contracted as freelancers for p2p advertising
>>61433008This board is like searching for a gold nugget in a pile of shit. The gold nugget is there, but you have to have the stomach to dig through shit.
>>61432956This is what I was looking for>>61432996And thisSo more of an additional long term confirmation bias. Looking closer there is massive spike on Sept 17 2019, thats before covid what was that? Lastly was it Monday Sept 15 this year that gave the first let's say minor warning to watch closer?
>>61432996The game plan is likely the followingFriday latest Monday JPB over 2%Next week BOJ starts offloading UST Bondsrepo goes drysofr spikes to 7%+ and stays thereStock market, crapto market, real estate market, commodity market correct in a bloody knife by optimistic 30% realistic up to 80%emergency rate cut between mid december - mid FebruaryFed starts to flood the market with credit lines, buying treasuries and probably helicopter moneybetween Q2 - Q4 short term rebound on everythingbetween Q3 26 - Q1 27 Inflation spikes to optimistic 25%+ realistic 100%+And then between Q4 26 - Q2 27 anarchy/totalitarianism; literally blood in the streets
>>61433008Where else is there to go? The discord telegram shit is worse
>>61433037Yes, is more like a warning that things are going to get volatile or bearish, specially if there has been a bullish sentiment before.There was a bank crisis in 2019https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/September_2019_events_in_the_U.S._repo_marketYes, around mid September this chart started to look concerning
>>61433039This is actually very close to the timeline I came up with but yours is backed by much more data. I was thinking q4 2028-2030 but I had the feeling they were front running the collapse
>>61433045Everywhere and nowhere, welcome to the horizontal epistem; there is no center, no dominant nod, no "alpha" place - all there is are uncountable atomized little epistemic communities, non having full or preferential information, all being more or less isolated - all are untrustful toward information coming from outside the bubbles
>>61433075Damn I couldn't have said it better....thanks man, learned alot today
>>61433062That's right I totally forgot about that, oh now I see the real importance of this graph
>>61433064its a hypothesis based on carry trade dying, delta between M2 and M0 being hard negative and everybody and his dog having chased on leverage a V of V bubble on everything DURING a fucking high interest rate cycle.I might of course be wrong, but the liquidity situation is dire, especially regarding M2/M0 delta, Zoomers are going to be 30%+ of the work force as Boomers and GenX looking to cash out and retire on no bid, leading to an optimistic 75% reduced tax income and consume overall. The big question is: Was the coof charade test run that simulated deliberately what is about to happen naturally adequatly; so 60%+ of the population being sheep, 30% opposing only passively and 10% being loyalists OR are the 30% rising to over 48% and going in hot.If the former, nothing ever happens, if the latter Grandma and the banker die
>>61433039Is not that unrealistic. We are in the late stages of the liquidity cycle. I am very worried of inflation going wild next year or early 2027, but for a true 'blood in the streets' situation, a long period of positive news and distribution is needed. The better the news get next year, the more bullish it looks inviting retail to get in (open ai going public), the worse is going to get on the way down.
>>61433075A privileged minority gets the money of a dumb gregarious majority. That is all you need to know.
>>61433159I doubt many will fall for the llm company IPOs - them going public is more of a private funded bail out than an opportunity. Too many free models, its software; software in the 2020s isnt a software in the 1980s; why use some 100B paid model, when you can use for most tasks locally an 30B model for free
>>61433180I don't know. When my 30% sheep 48%+ angry trustless blood raged opposition and 10% ish loyalist hypothesis is true, and looking at trust metrics over 4 years, I might be close; then the worry for the next 30 years isnt monies, its survival in the natural state
>>61433191Right now it looks impossible, but we will see how the general sentiment gets next year. Fomo and bullish news are a powerful thing (for the retarded majority). Think about how many people have Tesla or Palantir stock, or the bitzards that have lost a ton of money in shitcoins.
>>61432915What exchange lists SOFR? I can ape in.
>>61433224Who knows; trust in media/advertising of 15 - 30 is depending on the study and normalization between 8% and 23%. Boomer and GenX dont have really an incentive to dump cash into an ipo; and me; I am going to at best short the initial, and if I am wrong, maybe buy in 2 - 5 years, likely not
>>61433235tradingview indicates the Federal Reserve of New York as source for this data.
>>61433075Well putThe early internet was similar, but without the intense mistrust and tribalism, possibly due to the absolute cratering of QOL in the same timeframe.
>>61432956WTF is this unlabeled graph?>>61432979Thank you for confirmation. I’ll continue to read. >>61432996So it’s fed liquidity. How is it proven? Is this your main, or just one of many indicators you use?>>61433039So home prices and everything spike, interest rates drop. How low should they drop?>>61433134Interesting. >>61433191Google started out as one of many search engines. ChatGPT is a better search engine plus spell checker.
>>61433425>everything go upshort term, yes, after the initial correction that is as said happening between this Friday and 12/19 (BOJ meeting) until the fed starts QEing the shit out of the market (realistically Q2/Q3 with emergency rate cut); though I have no idea where the bottom of the correction is; could be 30% could be 80%, and the rebound might be like the evergrand rebound; a fart in the wind>googleyes, that was the early 00s - Who bought google shares, microshit shares, sun system shares, pet.com shares? Yes, tech illiterate boomers who did not understand the underlying market at all and were baited by>Ids da futureMillenials and Zoomers are not tech illiterate, the know what linux is, they know where to get free llm models and how to use them; you cant bait and scam them with software and>ids da future
>>61432964>I got mine now fuck youYou wouldnt be where you are today without the help of anons. Pass it on. Bare minimum is to share the book recommendations.
>>61433039>>61433159This is has been my belief for a long time, every time the can gets kicked its another small purchase of ammo, food, and essentials. Over time it becomes enough. Seems the debasement trade really is the best move. What are you guys considering for preservation? Etfs? Staples?
>>61433469>What are you guys considering for preservation?Your cash in the Caribbeans and Switzlerland; any place where there is no legislative bail-in clause and a banking secrete exists (Not the EU not the USA)
>>61433468Of course fren, this is from the other night. Absolute bangers, these are channel recommendations from anons and so far they have been very good
>>61433481Middle class, not an option, too poor for all that. I guess ammo and staples? Park the rest in SCHD, fucking hell I'm really starting to realize the gravity of this. I def do not want to all in on staples and boomer rocks
>>61432964fucktards like yourself are what is wrong with this world. plz return to plebbit and continue sucking the cock ofyour boyfriend
>>61433509Maybe CDs or money markets with a reliable broker but if they are US or EU based, no guarantee that you wont be hair cut if you park north of 100K there
>>61433530.....well fuck, thanks man
>>61433486
>>61433467I’m not hyping ChatGPT. But I can see how they can be profitable. Large companies don’t want to design their own LLM packages. They want a secure out the box ready one. They won’t trust DeepSeek even if it’s 1/4 the price. But thanks for the comments on my other thing.
