Why do people watch the jp10yr when discussing the Japanese carry trade? Isn’t the central bank funds rate what’s important
No and yes. Boj has to hike and has to dump. But a communist like you doesn't understand that and won't ever understand that. Die in the gulags
>>61438045I’m Cambodian
>>61438139Sorry to hear that
>>61438139Back to your rice paddy, Kai-Cheng.
don't the 10yr and funds rate converge eventually because banks are able to arb the difference?
>>61438147Winner. So what is the boj going to do on the 12/19?Hike those rates of course and dump ustbonds, likely over 50%, spiking yields on ustbonds to double digits, adding optimistic 5T extra debt on the US pile in a few hours
>>61438220So mega inflation is coming for the USD while simultaneously everything dumps?
>>61438626People have to sell to pay debts. Those debts have already caused inflation.
>>61438722But unwinding the carry trade will increase US yields -> more inflation
>>61438220They are going to ramble yellowly then do nothing because big us dick in their face. Then we pump until mid 2026
>>61438867Yes, it will be exactly like an episode of southpark in 2011.
>>61438845Flight to safety into US debt because everything is dumping while US debt offers safe returns. Yields go down. Demand for goods and services drop because its only what it is right now thanks to high networth consumers. Lower prices.
>>61438147how do you figure this, their bonds--assets, are becoming worthless, which means they can't exchange them for more credit, it could also mean they are being "margin called" so its safer to dump them and wait for the government to issue bonds with better rates, or just invest in something less risky
>>61438923>Yields go down.they arent they are going up together with jap yields
>>61438899I wouldn't know because I stopped watching that show in the 00's but I will defer to you goyslop connoisseur
Looks like their average debt profile is pretty weighted to the long end, so the 10yr rate will be driving most of their decisions on their central rate. Although I do agree I would think TONIA would be driving the carry trade the most as that would presumably be the rate used to price most of the FX swaps used to take advantage of the carry trade
>>61439038
