1. The biggest technological boom since the internet2. Ongoing Fed interest rate cuts into the AI boom3. Trump's impending new Fed Chair announcement4. $700B+ in annual technology CapEx5. The end of Quantitative Tightening (QT)6. Widespread deregulation initiatives by SEC7. The most market-conscious US President ever8. $2+ trillion in annual deficit spending9. 13% YoY earnings growth in the S&P 50010. The return of global fiscal stimulus
>>61439792The bear case is I'm sidelined, having to save most of my money for taxes.
>>61439792burry said stocks are too high and some other people mumbled stuff about 1929
>>61439792>>61439803>>61439829If AI is so great, why has it lost a trillion dollars?
>>61439792Diminishing returns of the money printer. Eventually, soon, it will turn negative.
>>61439836gotta lose money to make money, unironically
Retail interprets “I’m miserable” as a bear market.
>>61439846>Retail interprets “I’m miserable” as a bear market.
>>61439792The rate cuts won't be enough for a good while to give the markets the liquidity and confidence crypto needs. The next fed chair is also May, plenty of time for a bear market. As for ending QT that doesn't necessitate QE now or large enough QE to help.
>>61439792You perfectly blogged buy the rumor sell the news scenarios and you don’t realize it
>>61439845The losses are getting larger instead of smaller. AI mania has people going into debt to buy GPUs just like the Dutch went insane buying tulip bulbs.
>>61439792The bear case is that most of it is propped up by huge CAPEX which is just short term spending of piled up cash savings. The cash savings of big tech will run out soon if such CAPEX is maintained, so they will have to tone down the spending.Most people assume CAPEX is just normal and they spend what they earn, that is not the case. They are spending a concentrated amount of savings that they do not even come close to producing back in the same time frame currently.
>>61439880Just to illustrate with a metaphor. Imagine if you spend 20 years saving up your 100k a year salary to buy a house with cash. Then you spend 1 million on the house with all of your savings.Then, the neighbour writes an article that your yearly spending is 1 million and including projected future spending your net worth is approximately 100 million, since you can spend a million a year. That's the stock market right now.
>>61439792inflation that is consistently at 3% is a slow burn on american consumersthe market now is bifurcated, that is, supported by the wealthiest consumers for nowtariffs will ultimately be passed on to consumers, regardless of whatever economists tell you and this is going to further exacerbate the years of higher-than-2%-target inflationthe president is not that market-conscious and installing politically-influenced central bankers will not be a good thing35% of the s&p500 is 7 companies
>>61439792shoe size?
>>61439869>muh tulips!>mania that didn't even last a year is now the nu-investoor calling card for bubblesDon't ever come near me or my boards' son again
>>61439856
>>61439792the bear case is that some schizophrenic on /biz/ that doesn't trade thinks it's funny to spam the board with the cartoon bear
>>61439869>tulipthe tulipmania never existedyou're humiliating yourself online by mentioning it
>>61439792she's dating a nigger, but she's only 5'10 so who cares.
> 1. It's called a hype bubble, which ALWAYS bursts eventually> 2. Rate cuts are ALWAYS bearish> 3. Which will create runaway inflation which will force this new fed chair to raise interest rates again = ultra bearish for crypto> 4. Pissing money away on a bet? This usually ends well for sure.> 5. Again, rate cuts are bearish.> 6. Which won't last forever - dems are poised to retake total power in 2028 and the new SEC chair will reverse all of these rules, remember dems DESPISE crypto> 7. Who has made an absolute killing with a scam rugpull memecoin and his family & friends being known to short the market and again making a fortune off of that> 8. tariffs will get reversed by the Supreme Court soon> 9. S&P is in a bubble too bro> 10. Global liquidity crisis confirmedYou ok, OP?
>>61439792I literally cannot even imagine what it's like to have sex with a goddess like this
>>61439792The only bear case is that the bubble will pop in a year. Until then, make as much as you can while waiting for the exit door. Save your money, wait, and remember in the next recession real estate is 20% off, Lambos are 50% off, vacation condos are 60% off.LFG.
>>61441483>goddessGod
>>61441309>rate cuts are bearishlol
>>61439792Bear case is quite simple no return on the massive investment so the stock prices of these companies will plunge
>>61439880>>61439899You're already wrong because the tech companies have burned through their cash and have issued bonds worth hundreds of billions to buy for their spend nowhttps://finance.yahoo.com/news/factbox-tech-companies-tap-debt-180752482.html
>>61441744To pay for their spend*
>>61439792snu snu?
>>61439838Where does actual value come from and why is it's limit how many au atoms in your GodTM given corner of a floating space rock? God I'm lonely
>>61441691How old are you?
>>61439792oh my science i want that huge hand wrapped around my tiny peepee
>>61441744How does that make me wrong? That's exactly what I said, if they ran out of cash and now have to take up loans it means they're running on fumes and can't sustain this much longer
>>61441807ad hominemyou don't understand money
>>61441309>Global liquidity crisisyou are a fucking retard who doesn't do any real researchyou only listen to youtube channels selling you doom and gloom to cope with your shit life
Thinking of selling my crypto and S&P500 now and buying gold.I just have a really bad feeling in my gut.
>>61439792Bear case on SPX in 2026? Not as strong as it was a month ago I agree. Bear case on real returns of US equities market before Q4 2028? Pretty strong imo:1. Administration who only cares about SPX going up will likely control the fed. 5-6 rate cuts incoming with inflation not close to the 2% target*. 2. QT ending.3. Good chance admin finds an excuse for stimmy checks before next election, weakening labour market may present an opportunity.4. Democrats will push the deficit issue in 2028 given how little headway Trump has made on it. The only option he has is to engage in financial repression. Not just him, the next admin too.5. People are slowly waking up to how artificial valuations are right now. "Passive" flows mean have created a huge amount of artificial wealth. Boomers are borrowing against it (e.g. high yield etfs) or slowly liquidating it to pay for their old age care. Unlikely that the house of cards will collapse in 24 months, but likely that the top 20% are going to increasingly turn it into cash that circulates without meaningfully lowering stock prices because of the perpetual buy.6. AI may just run flat. The market seemed to get ahead of too much of a bubble forming, so will probably give providers 24 months to show good cashflow given the understanding they're becoming utility providers, not staying as tech companies. Productivity gains for their customers are going to be linear over a 5 year period.* The 2% target is one of the crucial parts of what gives the USD its value. If markets see that the fed has abandoned it, expect the DXY to drop off and higher inflation.I'm a foreign investor in a low inflation environment hence my particular interest in US inflation and the dollar's value. The extremist BTC and Silverbugs talking about hyperinflation are retards. But ask if it's a bull run if at the end your stock certificate can't be exchanged for more of thing that concretely improves your life that it could today.
>>61439792>everyone thinks that everyone thinks where in a bubble>everyone thinks they've identified the counter narrative then as "not a bubble"It's like understanding the future impact of the internet and going all in on AOL and Enron.>>61441309>>61441691Rape cuts confirm the recession is in, otherwise they wouldn't need to cut.The market is not as efficient as people think and it's not priced in already.
>>61439792I don't know why people think rate cuts equal good.If you have to cut rates, it is because the economy is not doing well.
>>61444452>Rape cuts confirm the recession is in, otherwise they wouldn't need to cut.Tell me more anon
>>61439902We already have politically influenced central planners sadly.
>>61443013> The cash savings of big tech will run out soon if such CAPEX is maintained, so they will have to tone down the spending.You said they'd have to tone down spending after running out of their piles of cash they haven't they have done the OPPOSITE and ramped up spending and turned to debt to fund the infrastructure that means you're wrong you fucking moronic spasticated nigger
>>61439792The Bear Case is that the bull case is extremely strong, so they will just dump the fuck out of it because the market is a retail fleecing machine, not a valuing machine.
>>61439792the bear case here, as in on here?100% the k-shaped recovery and people exposing their real valuethe joke is that the market never cared about the struggling bottom xx% of society for decades and now that group is growingbut it doesnt matter since the group that actually owns assets got richer faster than the marginal buying power of the poor is failingin short the great western middle class experiment is over: turns out the middle class was in fact not needed after all so back to business as usuali am not even going to bother to explain it to the retards itt that cant look at a graph of fed funds rate against the s&p and see that rate cuts are not a certainty of an impending recession
>>61439792You were told to sell, now do it or else we send it lower until you do
>>61440085The signs are everywhere.
