previous: >>144627558
Fresno state MLunlv is without their qb and rb
>>144679637the books havent adjusted in a day!
MLB Mookie Betts (LAD) Over 0.5 Total Home Runs +450 @ 0.25uAnalysis: Musgrove’s curveball has been effective vs. LHH, but none of his offerings limit damage vs. RHH (.210 ISO/.198 xISO/14.4° LA)Wind slightly out, great home park, launch for Mookie never an issueOh, and +4000 on for .2u as well
>>144679651Honestly I’ve seen a lot of picks for UNLV, I’m afraid the sharp money is keeping it in check from Joe Shmoe moving the line too much
>>144679719I like UNLV, they stood up on defense against a talented Kansas team and forced 2 picks and ran for a ton of yards. Everyones skitzing about the QB he only threw 7/18 for 89 yards in that game. Guy could be replaced by an rb.
Fuck's sake. Could've been 2-0 in the 12th min
>>144679755FCSB?
what were the odds for btts in fcsb game
>>144679760Yeah...>>1446797721.85
RFS goal just allowed me to dip more into FCSB live i got like 10 bets with them now, here we go back in the lead, FCSB o1.5 in the bag.FCSB might be shit but RFS is the punching bag of Europe and theyre extra shit domestically this season, theres just no way FCSB could be worse
>>144679785damn way better. although 2-1 now we´re back
Should've been 3-1 right now AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA
I bet a lasagna on the rutgas ML
now psg handball is stressing me out
>bet O3,5 in the Tottenham gameI am so beyond fucked
>>144680146>1 shot entire game Fuak
are we back, what happened to britTurk
Army vs. Temple Temple is still underrated in my opinion as they get healthier (5 starters missed the beginning of the year). They're getting back WR Zae Baines tonight. However, they're still 118th in run defense and facing Army's triple option offense on four days of practice. This could be a disaster for Temple's defense. Army's data points aren't great. Lehigh and FAU are atrocious. Rice is decent, but their QB play has severely limited them. I don't really want to play anything ATS, but sprinkling a Temple ML is somewhat worthwhile to me. Triple option offenses always struggle when forced to play from behind. Temple has been much better since Simon (Rutgers transfer) took over QB. I'm probably staying away myself
>>144680121alright we´re back
braga is probably gonna fuck up my other bet but i only put 5 on that
Good night >>144679809Never looked forward more to a compilation of your winning slips than i am right now kek
>>144680483I mean it when I say im betting small and building up, its like single digit dollars per bet, often <1 dollar for the smallest bets so its not as interesting as my HJK compilation or Stuttgart compilationReckon we have maybe at least one more FCSB goal in us?
FCSB bros... we did it
Ah there is 4, perfect timing
psg handball won. only fcsb left and it´s basically done too. lfg
>>144680614have you ever got cancelled/limited by bookies?
sad thats braga is gonna fuck up my @8.43 parlay i had on spurs/frankfurt/lyon/fcbs/braga
>>1446775442/3 should have been 3/3rangers should have had 5 alone but they are awful
Is qarabag double chance +180 a good bet?
>>144680278Army is kind of a joke with how much they rely on that QB. Temple can't be horrible forever and last week was a step in the right direction for them. Stats mean nothing. I lost my baseball bet today so I'm going crazy and will buy it to 14 points and watch the clean cut army boys get ran past by Temple's athletic philly negros. For the memes. Yankees clinch too.
>>144680669Yeah Stake would limit me sometimes when I did well betting big in 2020/2022 or so claiming it was because I was betting smaller markets, but the limit wasnt completely unreasonable and I could bet a decent amount still, or sometimes I could divide the money into multiple similar bets instead.Spotsbet would limit me hard without me having even done anything there before so I stopped there very quickly, also claiming it was because of "smaller markets" and they wanted me to bet Premier League slop for big bucks and such.Nowadays Im not limited at all.I have a really profitable australian friend who has been limited everwhere in Australia except bet365 and maybe betfair Im not sure, and they even refunded him on 365 quite a bit a couple times when BS happened, so thats another reason I want to go there in the future.I found him a second division norway game and he arbitraged it on 365 and betfair, he won on betfair, a bot that just kept taking his bets over and over like a money printer, and then he lost on 365, so they must think he lost quite a bit then.
>>144680614Alright man, i hope to see you do well whatever you do
>>144680799noice.
>>144680617>seasons come and go>tip FCSB for /bet/So what you wanna do now? Wait for tomorrow or take flamengo to score & dallas cowboys?
Don't do that. Don't give me hope.(pic related, its me, I am literally the black guy in the pic, the picture is me in real life)
>>144680944Have you ever think on strategies/tricks to avoid getting limited/canceled by bookies in the future?
FOR FUCKS SAKE>FAGFURT
>>144680944Is this your tip?
OH YOU GOTTA BE FUCKING KIDDING ME
>>144681044Fucked my bet i cannot believe it all because of that monkey GKSaturday they didnt concede vs Gladbach, lost me that one. Today they conceded 3 times vs some Czech farmers up 3-1 with 5 minutes to play. Bro... there is no winning in this game
Its ok qarabag missed a pen, with the spurs win im gonna still make 1 buck of profit.
Ok here you go rommy, just for old times sake the, all the green still looks nice.>>144681019What people do is they get the ID of friends and relatives and set up fresh new accounts and get cheap burner phones.
>>144681127I was thinking about something like that. Still I want to read the romanian blog entry on this issue.
>>144681019I haven’t. Do you have that ‘problem’? >>144681068Matter of fact, it’s not. Burgers here claim Cowboys is an easy win, i want to take it, and Flamengo i’d take if sudaccas here say so, and they already said two threads ago that Flamengo might not be a good bet because of injuries, so i’m not sure right now
I told you guys that Braga will win. KEK
that the spurs game isnt 4-2 is an absolute sham. it is on days like these when we have to remember that God is good all the time, we disobey and reap our rightful reward
>>144681093Not 1, 2!!unless i cash out, which will only give me 1 buck of profit
>>144681171no. but someday I hope.
>>144680695LMAO no way braga made it and frankurt fucked up
I love you spursPlease dont pull off a frankfurt
>>144681212whats with the red cards for the juden at the end tho, was there a chimpout
im tilted i need a bet
>>144681171>>144681175Keep me updated. I will back your next bet :)
Bets for tomorrow>sporting lisboa @1.18 vs estoril>PSG @1.40 vs rennes>dortmund @1.25 vs bochum>AC milan @1.38 vs lecceProbably DNB for dortmund and milan, or may avoid altogether.
AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH OFFSIDE I AM GOING INSANE
Last year on Sunday Night the Giants opened against the Cowboys at metlife. The Cowboys were favored by only -3, the total was 46.5 and closed at 44.5, with 60% of the money of the Giants ML. What happened was Daniel Jones was driving the field, but a botched snap stalled them in field goal position. Their field goal was then blocked and run back for a Cowboys touchdown. Then the Cowboys won 40-0, but I'll never forget how good the Giants looked in the middle of that opening drive. G-men all the way tonight.
>>144681280ceedee lamb over 6.5 receptions around even money
>>144681374the only thing the giants have going for them are the DL and Nabersthats it and they are having to place a safety at corner back tonight. hes going to line up in the slot versus lamb. think the cowboys boat race them but its the cowboys/2024
>>144681393i dont have that market. Only player props is TDs scorers
>>144681393uhh this C.D. Lamb??
>>144681417TD scorers are almost always a bad price unless you have a boost and even then its really high variance >>144681421hes going to get 10+ targets tonigh yeah that on
>>144681412Nabers is a complete gamewrecker and since when did safeties not work as corners. Perfect week to fade Stat Padscott.
>>144680278>posts 200 words>i’m staying away >no bet
>>144681467the giants are all kinds of injured in the secondary dont see a world where they dont line up CD in the slot all game. hes an amazing WR as well and im not sure what the answer is for him tonight. if the cowboys are winning its through lamb and if they go down 21 the way to get back is through lambnabers is great >>144681499>I don't really want to play anything ATS, but sprinkling a Temple ML is somewhat worthwhile to me
>>144679637Being a sharp bettor is 90% about making the contrarian play. When the knee jerk reaction is to fade UNLV due to their overrated QB transferring, you should bet UNLV
>>144681417Yankees ML @1.65 vs. Orioles. Gerrit Cole at home with a chance to clinch. Judge on a HR streak. Orioles won the last 2 but have nothing to play for. Scales tip the Yankees way tonight.
>>144681547Nothing to play for? They can still win the division.How the fuck will Dallas score if not through Lamb or their TE? They have no one else, i think im going to go with one of them scoring tonight
>>144681576cooks is a bit washed but he could be in for some targets too
anyone betting on flamengo match?
i have a smaller bet on dallas -4, but i'll be ready to cash it out if it's ahead. i don't trust dallas.
>>144681610I consider placing something on Penarol to score but i think Flamengo is going to play with 3 at the back so im staying away
>>144665994Struff withdrew by the way. Same with Dimitrov. Looks like the Laver Cup hangover is real.
>>144681321Ok, i’ll post tomorrow. Right now i’m not confident in anything. This is actually ideal for a bettor: not playing anything, waiting until you get that gut feeling that you *must* bet ASAP. Could be a LIVE bet ( on some of the games chile posted >>144681352 ) . Later
>Milan+Sparta+Slovan for tomorrowKinda scared of them resting up players for CL and getting caught of guard, thats why im just going for the win, no goals involved
>>144681730tsitsipas, cilic, and fritz all lost. not a good read. michelsen looked good.
>>144681815Michelsen and Thompson were the most obvious upsets ever in retrospect. I swear I thought they were so obvious I must be overlooking something so I psyched myself out. Wasted money on Bellucci instead.
>>144681923yeah. i thought ruud would win easliy, so i made 2 bets. ruud -2.5 and under 22.5 games. they cancelled each other out. i did hit with o'connell.
Giants ML. Cowboys D is atrocious and they have no run game.
>>144681777Yes sensei
i´ve still got that 100 no risk bet with up to 2 matches
Does anyone have any experience, or ever tried, building a simple model for betting?
>>144681576Oh my bad. But for all intensive purposes, and for a club to turn the page. Instead of worrying about winning out and the Yankees losing out, I'd say the writings on the wall for the Orioles. They already popped their champagne and the Yankees haven't. Sounds like you're not into it. But Gerrit Cole owns the Orioles.
>>144682370i use other peoples that are way smarter than me. its quite a bit of work but doable and if you dial it in right will be able to beat props markets for sure. if you are smart youll be able to beat MLs
>>144682182No risk bet?
>>144682447Yeah, I tried messing up with that like a year or so ago. It's hard work that's why I stopped, but I'm considering trying again.Hard to know where to start tho
>>144682556honestly the best starting place is getting to know and be really good at using excel after that you can find articles and things on the intetnet to get you going. a lot of it is historical data and youll want as much as you can find on the interetfor baseball you can use websites likebaseballsavant.mlb.comfangraphs.comif you can get a good model and backtest it you can make a living betting. and if you are a breakeven player you can probably work for a company as a tout
>>144682012giants are tanking. cowboys -12.5
>>144682504if i win i get the normal amount if i lose i just get it all back
>>144682632Baseball is really intriguing because they use so many advanced stats and there are so many different variables going on. I feel like you can really optimize your bet in that sort of market, but then again there are so many games every single day it is impossible to study every game in detailI think that nowadays stats are all online and everybody has access to them if they know where to search for. The hard part i think it is which data to extract, which market to focus on, and how to interpret it
NFL Daniel Jones (NYG) Over 31.5 Total Rushing Yards -110 @ 1.1uNFL CeeDee Lamb (DAL) Over 81.5 Total Receiving Yards -110 @ 1.1uNCAAF Iowa State Cyclones () -14.5 Point Spread -110 @ 1u
>>144683157if you can get a model up and winning you focus on smaller markets first until they limit you. after that you can tackle bigger markets. EPL and NFL lines are insanely efficient though
>>144681321You responded to two different people btw. I put a bet on PSG winning tomorrow, but don't blame me if you do the same and it doesn't work out.
Danny Dimes 31.5 Rush YdsDanny Dimes Anytime TDJake Ferguson 60+ Rec Yds+14360.25 UnitsNCAAF Louisville Cardinals () +7.0 Point Spread -110 @ 1u
Friday bet - Any tips?
CA Paranese O1.5 goals 50% chance of hitting and its +450Cruzeiro U1.5 68% @ -110Blooming vs. Almost Ready U2.5 68%
>>144666087Kek literally 0 shots, too easy.There will be goals in the next 2 tho, I’m doing 2FHG and some silly correct score bets. Fading the last one of the day
>>144684019Well actually 2FHG U.N.A.M/Guad and Puebla +3
>>144681421>uhh this C.D. Lamb??4 catches in the 1st Q
This time next year we'll be millionaires!
covered over on yards 5 catches for 80 with 40 minutess left laddered at 80 90 199 yards as well
>>144685218Nice Unsportsmanlike penalty
bet on the wrong kicker
>>144687297aubrey has one and should get another crack at another the way the game is going
army making me sweat. thinking i should have cashed out.
>>144687534We good, army can just get the ball back and run it out even if temple gets a tud its still 14
>>144687534>>144687806Yep, game over.
Dal -4.5 was a good deal!
>>144689000checked and easy money-5.5 cowboy bets steaming about the missed FG
>>144689129U45 chads we held firm. Always do primetime unders. Whoever said brandon aubrey O1.5 kicks made good on you. Army was my main big winner today though did a full unit. Probably going to jump on the UNLV spread tomorrow I think theyre still better
>>144689530that was me on the o1.5 kicks and dallas -4.5posted lamb over 76.5 yards ladder 80 90 100lamb o6.5 comp. made about $400 on that game was a good day in nfli wanted to bet army at -12.5 but couldnt muster the ballsjust bet navy -3.5 versus uab. uab has the 113th defense and 133 run defense (last in fbs). no way that they can prepare for a triple option in a week with those metrics.
Guy who gives me Tennis picks put 30 into this to make 1000Lets hope it hits
>>144690615Wrong photo, that was one i won with that guy the other day.This is the parlay
>>144689649Service academies could probably all go undefeated until Army plays Notre Dame. Hell they might beat notre dame
>>144690626does that mean wins at least one set or wins the whole game?
>>144683517im doing this +slovan bratislava in the slovekian league which i dont watch but was recommended to me and checking the statistics it doesnt look too bad. dont wanna recommend it in case they lose but thats what im doing
>>144682036Thank God i didn't put you on Flamengo last night. Still haven't bet anything yet
>>144683517nine times out of ten- one of these teams loses when i put on a bet like that
There is a game in German 3rd division which looks goaley to me. Will bet on FHG like usual.Also Excelsior and Den Haag in Eerste Divisie are my goal matches.Only 3 hours until aussies lose the toss in the cricket again as well.
>>144691470Fuck I didn’t say the German game, it’s unterhatching vs sandhausen
>>144691485GL.Im testing small Dresden-1.5@2.32, Cottbus@2.70 and very small Rostock@3.25 there
>>144691557NRL in an hour, my australian friend likes Storm-11.5@1.90 for a small bet, I get Storm-10.5@1.92 which is the same, slightly better, so Ill try that NRL. Storm at full strength and Roosters missing their best player etc
>>144691614I'm getting 2 on a -10.5 on that game, how confident are you about this? It seems like a lot of point differential. This is a final right? They are supposed to be the best teams or is Melbourne superior?
>>144691640if you are getting @2 thats better than anything offered on major sites or anywhere in Australia.Storm and Panthers are pretty strong atm, Roosters kinda dipping lately and missing their best player.Its a small bet for a reason because roosters arent bad, bet a small comfortable amount. Something that would get you a satisfying win and if it lost you wouldnt miss the money too much.
>>144691640For reference I put about 5% of my available bankroll on it, not counting the money technically tied up in other active bets
>>144678492Both Bautista-Agut and Boulter won 2-0 so that worked perfectly. Can't believe I got 2 out of 2 right. Decided I'm staying away from Sun even though the odds got better. Feels like a trap.
As much as I hate the Poosters, they ain’t losing.
