Commodities Mining General: digging edition
>>23364474I nibbled a little Freeport at $35-ish. Ready to ride the falling knife.
Anybody own MUX? Ready for an Hecla like move?
Outrageous spike higher from Perpetua.
DUBAI, Sept 26 (Reuters) - Iran has signed a $25 billion agreement with Russia's state nuclear corporation Rosatom to build four nuclear power plants in Iran, IRNA news agency said on Friday.Rosatom said on Wednesday it signed a memorandum of understanding on the construction of small nuclear power plants in Iran, without giving a number.
>>23364719I thought about MUX a few months back but never pulled the trigger>>23364474121Moz in silver reserves for a fifty year asset is not a lot of silver. The supply effect will be like 2-3Moz at most.
>>23364762We love to see it
Anybody else bought the irrational short report selloff in Aya yesterday?
Final opportunity to buy Awale before it gigapumps I think. It has consolidated a long time. I like their exploration project a lot, think they should already have at least 2Moz in the bag. Newmont is funding most of the exploration and another vote of confidence came from Fortuna recently when they announced an equity stake. Very early stage project but a reasonable exploration target is a 3-5Moz district.
Holy metals! My main folio that holds gems like Impact, Eskay and Labrador Gold is closing in on $400k, despite my 2020-2021 retardation. Never give up hope bros
And now oil joins the party.
>>23364788I had a small Awale position entered at something like .18 I regretfully sold, have resisted looking at it ever since because of the pain I know it will cause to see it moon
>>23364803>>23364819>>23364779epicsimply epicnext week money will hit my account
>>23364827There was massive volume on Cenovus last few days. Kind of interesting.
>>23364821Hey could be worse. I made my initial buy in the post-Charger discovery fervor at like 70-80c if I remember correctly. Price went down as low as 40c within the following two year consolidation. Anyway I think if they're eventually successful in proving a 3-4Moz reserve the project could easily have an over US$1B NPV. They have a 30% JV stake with Newmont owning the majority, plus they have some of their own adjacent 100% owned concessions on trend. Equity dilution should be fairly low with Newmont funding most of the exploration. Reasonably I think the company's share of a successfully proven project might end up being worth US$300-500M. Market cap today is less than US$50M. Hard to ask for better odds in early stage exploration: the first discoveries are already made, basically half of the exploration target I have put for them is already discovered if my math is right, and equity dilution is kept low thanks to a JV partner. Upside is a six-bagger or better in the next five years. Downside is sector underperformance. I like the odds on that bet.
>>23364835somehow there are sale all over the place
metals and oil feel like the crypto casino right now
>>23364835oil stocks are officially getting a bid. Did you see the volatility in YPF? Thing gigadumped when news of a Peronist landslide victore started circulating, then gigapumped when the US announced some kind of currency support for Argentina. Now clearly forming a bottom. Exxon is trading up again. Blackstone Minerals has been on a tear since its bottom. Even the oilfield services stocks are holding onto their bottoms.Seems like a great time to be long oilcos. Cenovus is underrated imho, even if they end up not getting MEG they are still cheap and a fantastic company if you can look past their past downstream fumbles
>>23365117Still recovering from the Husky acquisition lmao.
>>23365117Of course there's euphoria. Things you see before a double bottom to -$37/barrel.
>>23364827Good luck bro, WAGMI
>>23365176And recover it will. Happily long here.>>23365196don't threaten me with a good time. But honestly this kind of bearishness is why I think oil is a good contrarian long right now. Seems overtly hated to me
at what point will it become pointless to feed money into the poorfoliolets say I have 200k and I can put monthly 1k in is it still worth it or does the shitfolio need to be 500k when it becomes pointless to kick 1k in each month?
>>23365200The whole sector is just riddled from cynicism and PTSD from the shale CapEx bubble. Price goes marginally higher and they panic at the Americans adding a rig or two.
>>23365206We're not getting into the billions so every little bit helps. If you could potentially turn $1k into $5k, why wouldn't you? Every added adds to the total and improves the compounding effect. I suppose when you're wealthy enough that you don't feel the need to invest any more into the portfolio then that's the point you're asking about. I'm above €200k right now and I'm still adding cash into the pile whenever I can
>>23365215makes sense
>>23365211perfect time to be a buyer. I imagine the tech sector might experience similar capex bubble PTSD in like five to ten years considering how much tech firms are pissing away money while racing for the AI crown
>>23365221It looks like a revenue sharing circlejerk and their depreciation periods seem unrealistic for their chips. I suspect the larger firms are starting to rent datacentres rather than own them because they don't want those write-offs on their balance sheets.
>>23365225Zuck at least is going all in with data center buildouts (picrel). I think the data center boom is very real and will have a material impact on energy demand.Also check out this OpenAI/Oracle data center project on X, wow: https://x.com/stevehou0/status/1971141586403680350
>>23365234Railroads, internet and shale oil all transformed the economy but they all had their CapEx bubble implosions as well. The real growth and innovation usually happens after that.
>>23365238Good point. Eagerly awaiting the gigadumpening in tech to rotate into it from commodities. I should probably monitor /smg/ more to gauge sentiment but we're still not even close to the tail end of this commodity bull so I'm not in a hurry to do all that.Btw my friend works at a chip manufacturer. One of the big two. He tells me stories about pretty much consistent mismanagement at their work place. Too many office workers and not enough real workers, constant issues. Makes me wonder how they make money but apparently that company makes the lion's share of its revenue from service fees interestingly enough. Smart business, sell the product and capture the customers within your infrastructure, then milk them dry with service contracts
>>23365247It was similar in oil and gas prior to the 2015 price implosion. Calgary I believe still has a 25% office vacancy rate as the companies were all forced to streamline their operations.
>>23365252I'll have to keep tabs on my friend in case there are layoffs at their firm some years from now. Right now though? Business is booming from what I hear from him. They're securing contracts with an unnamed Playstation manufacturer and seems like their technology is constantly evolving. Despite the management issues my friend mentioned it seems the company is doing really well at the moment
>>23365271That's nice to hear. The North American LNG and datacentre buildout is why I took a large position in TCW a few years back. It will be interesting if the commodity doesn't become dependent on the weather.
ae there companies that supply the mines with machinery that you can invest in? as in the companies that supply the shovels?
>>23365247smg is still very bullish on the broad markets / s&pthe party isnt over, they just printed alot more cashin my opinion trump is chopping profits for the whole economy and slowing down the s&p with all these new tariffs
>>23365334natgas always has been dependent on the weather... Not sure how LNG will be. I think there's a possibility that LNG capex is also bubbling and that global LNG prices will swing down hard in the next few years. I'm not one of those North American nattygas bulls as I'm sure you can tell. There's so much fucking fartgas up there and it's so trivially easy to produce nowadays. Trican may be a smart way to play this infra buildout, I hope you do well with it>>23365340Yeah Caterpillar is a classic. They sell popular mining haul truck models.
>>23365348>Caterpillarholy shit this guy doesnt stop going up
>>23365352as you'd expect in a mining boom. Volvo also sells haul trucks.>>23365345cheers
>>23365340Also there's the Swedish Epiroc that produces drilling, construction and mining equipment with focus on hard rock equipment, and the Finnish Outokumpu which produces milling technology for mines' processing plants.A lot of ways to sell shovels!
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>>23365620glorious
Kek, mids and senior foing down as silver goes up.
>>23365676PAAS up like 4%. AG is up 5%. HL up 2%. CDE 2.5%. AYA is up over 10%.
>>23365683zoom out
>>23365689Ok now what?
>>23365697Now notice selling
>>23365117>Even the oilfield services stocks are holding onto their bottoms.I don't know the general attitude of people here regarding their planned holding period for the equities they own. However, if it's the Buffett-like answer of "forever," they should be very careful of the oilfield services companies.The oilfield services companies appear to be excellent equities to hold during a crude oil/commodities bull market. However, they are absolutely terrible companies to hold "forever" across multiple business cycles. Look at the price history of Schlumberger and Halliburton over 30, 40 years and compute the total return. It's pathetic.Meanwhile, the international oil companies such as Exxon, Chevron, BP, Royal Dutch Shell do quite well over multiple business cycles. At least for the American companies (I have not look too deeply at the non-American companies), they also offer excellent protection against inflation in secular high-inflation periods.tldr; Oilfield services companies should only be held for a trade, which may last up to around seven years. Be sure to sell on the way up to lock in gains and prepare to dump the entire position before the business cycle ends.
>>23365352Caterpillar also sells mega bulldozers to Israel so they can flatten Palestinian houses.
>>23365703...where? All I see is green upon green.>>23365704Thank you for the input. Yet another excuse for me to avoid learning about and investing in OFS. Integrateds indeed do have a history of generating long term returns, I wonder what it is about OFS that makes even the major service companies lose money across cycles when the oil megacaps are able to make money across cycles?
>>23365703take your meds
Did Dome Mountain flood and the bonanza is lost? How could Rana give us red on a day like today?
>>23365792he redeemed the options?
>>23365713I want to be careful of what I say but I worked a long time with a major oilfield services company. My personal opinion of why they're such lousy long-term investments is because they behave like "body shops" and that is largely the fault of the management.If you don't know what a "body shop" is, it's a company that has a bunch of workers that are essentially contracted out to clients. In this case, it's the various international and national oil companies of the world. When the business cycle ends, the clients are much more reluctant to hire and the oilfield services companies lose a tremendous amount of revenue and they don't have much in the way of other business to make up for that loss.There have been efforts in the past to diversify the business but due to weak management, they screw things up and the businesses either don't make money or they make a terrible mistake elsewhere and a new CEO comes in and un-diversifies (divests the non-core) the business to appease Wall Street.Meanwhile, companies like the oil majors have both exploration & production (upstream) businesses as well as refining and chemical businesses (downstream). When the oil price is booming, the E&P business typically generates a tremendous amount of profit and the downstream businesses make a relatively small profit. However, when there is a crude oil bear market, the E&P businesses eat it and go into some sort of maintenance mode but the downstream operations because much more profitable thanks to low input costs.
>>23365713>...where?On a chart.>All I see is green upon green.Then you are reading only half of the information.
>>23365726What meds? To worsen my eyesight?
>>23365797that stinky little Poo, he and Crescat should be ashamed
>>23365819Makes a lot of sense. Also the equipment servicing and depreciation probably has something to do with it as well. In an upstream oil company, the producing wells themselves are the depreciating/depleting assets and they require minimal investment to maintain, drilling a new well is a larger investment. The wells do depreciate/deplete but they still produce the oil, gas and NGLs which provides cash to offset the depletion. But the OFS companies don't have always have a source of cash flow from their equipment so those assets can depreciate without cash flows.>Meanwhile, companies like the oil majors have both exploration & production (upstream) businesses as well as refining and chemical businesses (downstream).We can hopefully also add lithium to the list soon if Exxon and others succeed in their brine extraction technology>>23365832see pic related. You're huffing some weird chemicals again aren't you?
>>23365850>see pic related. You're huffing some weird chemicals again aren't you?Why? Because I see long bottom shadows? Is that just my hallucination?
>>23365857Yes, you are literally hallucinating rn.
>>23365859Aha, having good eyesight is called Hallucinating in Finish. I didn't know you are using a foreign nonindoeuropean word.
>>23365704I did this. Bought multiple ofs around sand in 2022, sold after the election. Too much uncertainty for me. Source energy went from $1.89 to $17 in that time frame.Might jump back in soon. Waiting to see if war expands in Europe and ME
>>23365866if you cannot point to the part in the chart you mean then you are hallucinating. Cope however you want but you're just not making a real observation. You're trying to make up something that doesn't exist.
>>23365989I already described you in detailed manner what to look at. Even a retard like Trump would understand. Don't act like you don't know which part of candle is shadow. Or face being considered tobe even dumber than orange monke of White Hoes
It's time to make a note in all new threads ***no polish posters***
>>23365996being considered dumb by you is the highest form of praise I could ever receive. You are after all the dumbest retard on this general as you are proving yet again.
time to do the usual.
>>23365340Metso Oy is a Finnish company that makes equipment.Artemis Gold just ordered from them:https://www.artemisgoldinc.com/news/media-releases/artemis-gold-announces-33-increase-to-phase-1-processing-plant-capacity-at-blackwater-mine-and-places-order-for-long-lead-equipment-for-phase-2-expansion> In anticipation of a Phase 2 investment decision in Q4 2025, the Company has placed orders with Metso for both an 18MW semi-autogenous grinding (“SAG”) mill and an 18MW ball mill for the SABC grinding circuit. The new ball mill is already fully fabricated due to cancellation by another customer, which is expected to significantly de-risk the Phase 2 expansion schedule.
>>23366017kek
>>23366013OK let me do a fast course in candles. I will try to use simple language that so even non Aryans like you could anderstand| - this is a knot of candle|# - this is candle###| - this is shadow||If you still don't understand than indeed consider yourself to be praised by me.
Redeemed the Lagoon. Some could say that I don‘t have the patience but trading a shitco to one of these is simply just a good choice.
Also kind of addicted to black jewish moneymagic now.If these were cryptos I would say that when you want to send a picture of your gains it is time to sell.
>>23366054You made the right choice Pekka. All of those are great companies, maybe with the exception of Hecla which is just kind of an average silver producer. But silver companies tend to be shitcos so an average producer is actually good. It seems I may have had a bit of an effect on your trading with my posts, let's make a lot of money with these stocks.>>23366075always be careful with the Jewish tricks. I'm also very much entranced by the easy money but I try to remember the fact that it's fugazi
>>23366075>Metso OyI dont feel anything anymore, weeks on weeks jus greenmy monke brain is fried
>>23366075How the fuck do I get more margin?
>>23366085get more capital. Or don't invest so much into Venture shitcos with 100% margin requirement. Or switch into a broker that offers more leverage.
>>23366075MASSIVE
>>23366036Oh yeah how could I forget Metso! Metso also provided Endeavour Mining with their BIOX circuit for Sabodala-Massawa a few years back. I might actually invest into Metso...
>>23366075lol I know what you meme. I was sending screenshots of my YTD returns to close friends and my dad and later thought "this must be the top." But upon zooming out I realize we're no where near the top and we're going to get fucking rich.
nibbling on this today. I guess it's all share dilution for the last 4 decades but the looking solely at the charts... it suggests it could go a lot higher, plus around $15 makes it more appetizing to buyers.
SGD CHADS:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fUMoYRk7wks
>>23366178>I guess it's all share dilution for the last 4 decades but the looking solely at the charts...
>>23366126I only have sent my portfolio gains to friends that asked to see them
silver breakout against shitcoin LTC?
>>23366220yea crypto is finished
the generational crypto baggies will be huge
>>23366235cockroaches are hard to kill so I'm not so sure
>Twitter biz and finance news trending>Silver Lake>1519 posts>Go check it out, maybe something cool>It's Jewish spy firmsMfw
>>23366181line went up today
>>23367244checked, Snowline & Scottie #1 & #2 this week
>>23365117Same happened with ABRA. Had a buy order at $5.50, but it didn’t hit :( It was up like 15% at one point this session. YPF sounded like a fantastic buy during that hiccup
>>23367704Copper has now made up 25% of the huge drop in relatively short succession.4.77 is a key KEY area to break. Buy copper miners and let this sticky inflationary environment reward you.
great videoholy fuck this bull market is going to last for years and go ballistic https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZbRxrvEGofEI'm going to live a good life.
what mining stocks have the greatest potential to 100x in the next year
>>23367938Whew, Surge up 20% today to $0.245. Expanded my position by 25% at 0.17 recently, $1 next year with copper re-testing high $5 on persisting inflation.
>The development at Freeport shows "how little it takes to tighten up this market," especially when two of the top copper mines have problems at the same time, said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank."Traders buy first before asking questions," he said.Based Ole beating the drums.
>>23367977top signal
>China
>>23368451Cowboy hat man stock
Apparently this 1911 has a 20x trajectory at $5000 gold
>>23369896Don says shit like that about every stock he owns. He called Great Panther a fourbagger months before it went bankrupt. Don also said Allied Gold should be a ten-bagger within a year. He simply has no idea what he is doing and the worst part is that he's leading on retail who know even less what they are doing. His retarded strategy may work during the bullrun but everybody who follows him will be lead down a cliff when the bull turns to bear
>>23369896like look at this retarded shit he is postingHe's assuming:>no dilution>no financing costs>no capital costs>no g&a costs>no taxes>no royalties>time value unaccounted for (no DCF)>$5k gold>production costs from his own ass>production as a matter of certainty>flat 18x FCF multiple (LOL)just pants on head retardation. I cannot believe this guy has been doing this for 20 years and somehow made money. But I guess he hasn't since he's selling a subscription or something.
>>23370120His portfolio seems to consist of every single publically listed mining company.
>>23369896>>23370110It's definitely important to be careful with guys like Don and GV. They will shamelessly pump shitcos they no longer believe in, but are positioned in and want to exit or take some off the tableA few years ago Don was not only pumping failing Great Panther, but Aurcana, Alexco and Puregold tooHere's Don's legendary Great Panther pump at 29:06https://youtu.be/ek94-r_6WpM?t=1746
Just remembered, for years Don also pumped the shit out of Ascot, they are on the brink of going under currently and diluted to almost 1.5B shares
Where is Staking-anon? Did he step on a rattlesnake and perish in the Nevada desert?
>>23370455Shortfag probably spent all his bllg short gains on hookers in Reno. Currently relegated to sucking cocks under the bridge for cigarette money, although he quit smoking years ago
>>23366078Yes I do try to take a look at many companies mentioned here. A big thanks of course for all doing the work.But you do also come across the good companies yourself when researching good companies because they sometimes refer to other good companies.Anyways if you are wanting to rotate to some other industry after the commodity bullrun and software is one here is a very good example of a good software incestment company. https://www.hgcapitaltrust.com/They also have this trust that is public. I might buy it if tech gigadumps at some point.In the long run software and especially business software should be a race to the bottom in terms of pricing and margins but currently you can still have some insane margins. I would say most businesses have no idea how cheap software could actually be and most often do not even care since it is just cost of doing business. Reg tech is a boring but growing industry for years to come.
>>23370598> incestment companyKek, might not even be a big typo considering we are talking about private investment firms.
>>23370608>incestment software companyMindgeek?
>>23370120Kek like that Eric Sprott math on NFG. 2M oz a $4000 gold that's $80B, and NFG is only valued at $500M. Trust me bro, this is how it works.
>>23370595kek, that's possible, he might have also fallen to the bottom of an old abandoned mine he entered hoping to find a vintage pair of Levi 501s
>>23370654I'd guess NFG has closer to 4-5Moz now since adding Maritime, Lab and Exploits
>>233660545 montha ago people here told me HL is a shitco
>>23371312Not me, I'm balls deep HL for years with 10,100 shares total, but they were mostly disappointing every quarter until their record revenue and record free cash flow in Q2 when they sold Ag close to $35. Q3 earnings are coming Nov 4
>>23370595shortfag is probably soon making bank with his newest mineral claim flip near i-80
>>23370598>But you do also come across the good companies yourself when researching good companies because they sometimes refer to other good companies.correct, and the more you spend time investing in this sector the more you learn about the companies in the landscape, and the more you get a handle on what's good and what's shit.>https://www.hgcapitaltrust.com/I don't know jack about this shit but thanks
>>23371711I wish I were in better health. I would find those plots, drive over there, and build a toll booth on his road access
>>23370455Flying out tomorrow.>>23370595Reno hookers are horrible.>>23370673No, I missed my chance at an antimony mine.>>23371711This. >>23371947>toll boothThere's 21,000 feet of perimeter on one package, broe. That's going to have to be a big toll booth.
>>23372003>Eureka NVNice, pretty sure I spent the night there years ago with my dad in an old hotel when we were driving through NV on 50, good times. Godspeed staking-anon
>>23372322Cheers, broe.
I unironically gonna buy me these LV Attitude shades
>>23372367
>>23372426you can get them 10x cheaper and unbranded from China probably lol
Is it too late to buy shitco, Bear creek, ticker BCM or has that ship sailed?
>>23373120I didn't do proper DD on Bear after I saw a female CEO, so consider me retarded, but their chart reminds me of Galleon which I hold and still like
>>23375884>Catherine was named "Mining Man of the Year" by The Northern Miner in 1999
>>23375931
Am I too late to long commodity miners/extractors/explorers? I have half of my port in American tech and the other half in European defense. It seems to me that the war stocks have plateaued. Thinking of reallocating, but I don't know anything about this sector. Silver and gold have mooned, is there a runway anymore? My understanding is that silver and gold prices can go down 15% in a single day and that would rape any miners. Buying at these prices risk seems very high and upside is mid?
>>23375960>Am I too late to long commodity miners/extractors/explorers?the easy money is made but this bullrun is still not even near its end imo>Thinking of reallocating, but I don't know anything about this sector.if you want to play it safe, stick to the majors and ETFs. If you don't know jack about this sector you're better off that way.>Silver and gold have mooned, is there a runway anymore?yes. Consider adjusting prices for inflation (silver just recently broke its nominal highs) and also consider that the traditional portfolio allocation for gold used to be like 2% while nowadays it's 0.5%. Central bank gold holdings are also still way below what they used to be decades ago. I expect both private and public gold ownership to increase much closer to the levels they were back in the 70s.>My understanding is that silver and gold prices can go down 15% in a single daylol never seen anything like that happen. Commodities usually move 1-2% a day, 5% is seen as a major swing.there's still a lot of value to be found in the sector and I expect to make a lot more money. Some of the companies are still trading way below net present value at $3k gold let alone $3.7k.
>>23375960Likely not even close to being too late, but at this stage of managing risk I'm looking for 2-4x and plan to only buy more Snowline or B2Gold in the near term
Silver was up like 1.6% on Friday and people were losing their shit. It ain’t going to move 15% in one day, unless there’s another event similar to the LBMA nickel debacle
Physical chads...ww@
>>23375988>lol never seen anything like that happen. Commodities usually move 1-2% a day, 5% is seen as a major swing.silver for sure dropped $2-3 in a day in the last year.
>>23375960Oil is coming out of its bottom vs gold and the dollar
>>23375884>>23375931lol. Ya Im a little worried to buy at the highs since its up like 100% last week.
>>23376318
>>23376694If someone like Don Durrett or GV is pumping it hard (they have a lot of followers) you might buy the next dip, then sell some at a profit into their next pump and then let the lower cost, smaller position ride
