Halving doesn’t come around very often. I think there should be a one-time halving waiting room and general for questions and discussion. I will post some more hopefully helpful answered FAQ to keep it bumped for a bit in subsequent posts. Discuss any facet of interest to do with the halving, such as your expectations or a concerned bobo narrative you may have as a nocoiner. >Where can I monitor when the halving will occur exactly?Use mempool.space (which is the website pictured). Click on the halving button highlighted by the red circle. From this thread's creation time it will be around 24 hours from now.>What is the Bitcoin halving? Bitcoins or BTC are produced by a competitive process known as mining that requires the expenditure of computational energy. The BTC production schedule is predetermined by its protocol and, by design, approximately every 10 minutes a new block is mined by a miner (a computer participating on the Bitcoin network). Each time a miner successfully mines a block it is awarded a fixed number of bitcoins (not counting the transaction fees they are paid as well), and this is called the block subsidy. The block subsidy is the original source of all BTC produced on the Bitcoin network, and is its means of paying for its security guaranteed by the Proof-Of-Work consensus mechanism. Approximately every four years or, more precisely, once every 210,000 blocks, the Bitcoin block subsidy is halved in an event simply called the halving (or some people say halvening to be silly). For the first four years of Bitcoin’s existence, each block carried a reward of 50 bitcoins. For the next four years, the block subsidy was 25 bitcoins. These four year periods can be referred to as halving epochs. In the epoch currently about to conclude, each block rewards miners with just 6.25 bitcoins. Sometime in the next 24 hours or so, the reward will be cut in half once again to 3.125 bitcoins.
>Does the supply-shock effect of the halving go down each time a halving occurs? Yes it does, as obviously reducing the block subsidy by 25 bitcoin in the first halving was a bigger drop than reducing it by 3.125 (as will occur this time). This does not take into account however how demand may increase, like from new institutional means and interest to buy BTC which did not exist for prior halving epochs. Additionally, there is bullishness in the possibility that due to BTC becoming more absolutely scarce, more individuals may wake up to the potential of that in this very fiat inflationary environment. And they may simply be tempted to speculate that bitcoin will continue to perform like it has in the past after previous halvings. Most people are only familiar with relative scarcity, for example the scarcity of precious metals. When gold for instance becomes more valuable, it incentivizes people to bring more of it to market so they can benefit from the higher prices. For example: miners exercising new means of more efficiently extracting it from the earth. In contrast with the strict absolute scarcity of Bitcoin, the amount of new BTC added to the market can only decline over time regardless of how high demand for it might be. This is more of a theoretical way of stating things however, and a more meaningful way of comparing scarcity from one asset like gold to bitcoin would be looking at their respective stock-to-flow ratios. As the amount of BTC to be mined reduces over time, the stock to flow number (s2f ratio) increases, as supply coming onto the market is reducing. S2F = existing supply of something already on the market / amount of supply added last year. See pic related if curious for additional information concerning S2F.
>Why does the Bitcoin Halving matter? And Is the Bitcoin halving “priced in” by the market already due to everyone knowing about it and anticipating when it will occur?(Answer post 1 of 3) The answer is quite simply no, the halving is not already priced in. To say that the market could price in such an event, is imputing to the market a level of foresight and efficiency that would have to be supernatural in nature. I will elaborate more on why it isn't priced in across multiple posts and also speak to why the halving matters at the same time in simply stating why it's a bullish factor.Bitcoin’s protocol specifies that the amount of computational energy required to mine a block is adjusted periodically to maintain a relatively consistent output of bitcoins during each halving epoch. If the computational resources devoted to mining increase, the difficulty of mining is adjusted upward, and it becomes more costly to mine new BTC. This difficulty adjustment tends to make miners into marginal producers. That is, the profit from mining tends toward zero over time. Due to the marginal nature of the mining business, miners typically need to sell most of the bitcoins they mine to cover the continuing costs of running business operations, which are dominated by electricity costs. Thus, miners provide a constant downward pressure on Bitcoin’s price level. When the Bitcoin halving occurs, the downward selling pressure of miners is approximately halved in magnitude. All things being equal, if demand for bitcoins were to merely remain constant, the halving would result in an excess of demand over supply, causing the price to rise.
>>58415593(Answer post 2 of 3)Given the predetermined timing of each halving, it may at first seem plausible for market participants to anticipate the event and price it in before it happens. Individuals can do this so far as their own subjective appraisal is concerned, but the market pricing something is a different matter entirely. Individual bobo posters of biz will tell you that bitcoin is always overpriced wherever the market happens to be in the present moment, and we always have further to fall. So it is quite comical they will also say that the halving is priced in already. Put differently, a bobo is someone who thinks the bitcoin market can only be inefficient in one direction in the sense that their personal reasons for bearishness are never yet "priced in". Yet anything which they will admit is a bullish factor, they will say is already fully priced in the moment it enters the consciousness of a small amount of the public. In contrast true mumus are consistent in that they always maintain that the market is inefficient, because they think longer term across multiple future halving epochs to begin with.As you can see from these graphs covering most of bitcoin’s life span, it has never worked this way in the past when we have switched into a new epoch. It is clear that prior Bitcoin halvings have not been adequately priced in, and that BTC’s price seems to rise dramatically after each halving. There is no reason to assume it will be any different this time.
>>58415600(Answer Post 3 of 3)When a Bitcoin bull phase ends, the price drops precipitously until it finds an equilibrium where demand from buyers with strong conviction matches the supply from speculators seeking to exit the market and miners selling to cover their cost of production. The halving disrupts the eventual equilibrium, and the supply of bitcoins that are tradeable on the market is slowly transferred to the hands of long-term holders. As the pool of tradeable bitcoins diminishes, the market price of Bitcoin begins to drift upward, and the inexorable rise in price seems to trigger a classic “madness of crowds” phenomenon and the parabolic phase of the hype cycle ensues.A potential reason that prior halvings have historically not been priced in is that when a halving triggers a new hype cycle, it is unclear how large the cohort of participants reachable in that hype cycle will be, and to what extent members of the cohort will be willing to allocate their savings to Bitcoin. Complicating matters are the complex feedback loops involved in monetization. When some investors decide to save in Bitcoin they not only act as passive investors, but also become active evangelizers for the superiority of Bitcoin as a means of saving to others. This acts as a form of advertisement for Bitcoin. The extent to which this evangelization enlarges a cohort is not measurable or foreseeable.
So how high you guys think BTC will go this bull run?
>>58415619Between 250k and 350k
>>58415626Not a bad guess at all. I was gonna say higher than that for fun, like 500k but stop short of flipping gold's global marketcap.
>>58415575It's pronounced baklavening. Actually.
Newfags lurking, op is spoonfeeding.
>>58415600So what is the best time to buy BTC really before halvening? Now? One hour before the timers hit halvening?BTC is in a pretty decent fall just right now.
>>58415650Alright, OP as funny as that image is Keynesian economics can work when there is a surplus of funds to stimulate the economy. ie back when we had a gold standard. It is now used as an excuse for money printing. Also I don't think it will get to 500k, im not willing to hold out that high as it may not happen.
>If the halving is not yet priced in, will we see an immediate impact on price once the halving occurs?No we won't necessarily see an upwards impact on price immediately as a result of the halving, because that would again be naively attributing efficiency to the market which oversimplifies why and how large bull cycles occur. Saying something like the halving is “priced in” immediately after-the-fact, is only a little bit less absurd than saying it is “priced in” ahead of time. As you can see in these charts of prior halvings, we may not even necessarily see gains in the week or month after the halving. Nonetheless nocoiners and bobos will act like this is some huge cause for concern and post IT’S OVER if BTC does anything other than go parabolic immediately after the halving. >>58415737I don't know. Maybe some day trader who believes in TA could tell you. The bulltard response is always "the best time to buy BTC if you don't have any, was yesterday".
>>58415745>when there is a surplus of funds to stimulate the economy.yeah and that's exactly why it fails too. there is no such thing as unlimited resources. fancy words don't invalidate scarcity.
>>58415575While waiting on the halving, at least do something with some money that you have to spare, gamble a little bit on eesee, who knows, you might earn an NFT worth $20K only investing $200
>>58415884Ah, you are still thinking in terms of the current economy not during the period of the gold standard when cash was directly backed by gold and maintained its scarcity.
>>58415886KEK
>>58415886there is not a single NFT that is currently worth 20,000, all of them are at rock bottom.
>>58415575What will you all be eating to celebrate the Halving?I will be eating pizza all day to celebrate because Bitcoin was first traded for pizza.
>>58416008Wholesome anon. A family member is grilling burgers tomorrow, they are always excellent. The family I'm with don't know I'm coin rich so it would seem off if I celebrated too extravagantly. >>58415745I don't know enough to invalidate your claim honestly, but am skeptical. Namely because I don't think there is a need to stimulate the economy in the first place, if things were left alone rather than excessively micromanaged and manipulated by the state and the Fed as they have been for so long. There isn't a need to do that any more than there is a need to stimulate a healthy human body with drugs. As far as the magnum opus of pedophile John Maynard Keynes is concerned however, I think this fella did a pretty thorough refutation of it a long time ago: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dlpH4rDYk2I
Halving in 18 hours 40 minutes (give or take) from this post. I'm looking for some more questions about the halving to effort-post about. The only other one I can think to answer which people are typically interested in is: "What connection if any do altcoins have with Bitcoin's halving?"I already have an effort post explanation 50% done but am too tired to complete. Post your theory about this question if you will, without tacky shilling particular alts of course. Try to explain the cause of "alt season" if you think it can be said to be related to the bitcoin halving at all, or why it isn't.
>>58416043Let me be clear, I am have an Austrian perspective of economics and in no way advocate for Keynesian economics as a long term viable option. I am merely saying at one point, before the fed was on the rampage it is on now. I believe Keynes argument of stimulating aggregate demand had potential to work when currency is tied to gold directly and the government is in surplus and not totally fucking retarded like it is now. That's all. No way in hell could it work and it does not work in the current economic climate.
will anything actually happen the moment it happens? from what I can tell it'll only have more longterm effects, nothing immediate
>>58416928Never had in the past. No dump. No pump. Just a crabbing for months until baboona. Halving just sets the stage
>>58416936makes sense
>>58415963You should consider why we've ended up in the economic paradigm we're currently in. This was inevitable with the economic stage Keynes manufactured. You're right that it worked once, in very specific conditions; but economic systems are not static and it was inevitable that monetary velocity would slow, cause growing pains and providing the political elite with the perfect cover for the largest transfer of wealth in human history.I don't think Keynes really knew what he was doing, I like to believe he was naive rather than malicious.
>>58416098I don't know if I feel like finishing the effort post explanation of explaining the connection altcoins / altseason has with the bitcoin halving. I think it'll end up three thousand words or something from me being autistic about how I explain things. Maybe I'll do it as separate thread on a later date. I was interested in doing this because I never see actual sufficient explanations for how something as retarded as alt mania malinvestment kicks off, with people just asserting it is inevitable and sometimes related to the bitcoin halving.But the lazier tldr of it is: Alts don't have a formal rational connection to the bitcoin halving and ensuing bull market whatsoever. But they do have an irrational connection which stems from normie dumbfuck conceptual confusion / perceptions. I'll be referencing the image. Joe Average McNormie notices bitcoin setting new all time highs after he thought it had died or something. He knows bitcoin is called a "cryptocurrency". He hears idiots on social media (who may only be slightly more savvy than him) that it is a good idea to get into "crypto". He looks up content about "crypto" and tends to see a lot of images like image-B. He knows nothing about money, so the tendency for Joe Average McNormie is to basically perceive and form all his ideas about "cryptocurrency" markets as if they were the candies in image-A. Money is nothing like candies of course but Joe Average Dumbfuck does not know this and does not actually have the competency "to do his own research", and so he thinks it makes sense to simply go about picking a crypto like he would pick out his favorite candy from a pile. Enough people doing this causes alt season. He is encouraged by people who have already done this by them shilling all manner of erroneous narratives that will always seem stupid in hindsight after some years later when their chosen alt is 90%+ down from its ATH sat value.
>>58417521There are quite a few points I'm leaving out, but that is the quick lazy tldr of my theory. But holy shit is the two-thousand characters limit for posts unreasonable! Are anons supposed to pay to be able to communicate beyond mere sound bytes? >>58416928See: >>58415748Halving in 6 hours 50 minutes. It would be fun if the bottom to this correction were in already and we take off tomorrow or at least Monday.... but who knows.
>>58417038Keynes writes about the dangers of abusing his system and talks explicitly about avoiding long term fallout. Your right he was naive but he wasn't stupid. He gave them a friggin instruction manual to create slaves!
Halving in one hour / six blocks... You know although I'm not new to bitcoin, I've never bothered watching it happen live before. I don't know if when they say "next six blocks" the reduced subsidy happens on that sixth block, or if it happens on the 7th after it.I'm talking to myself anyways though biz is so dead.
>>58418258I'm listening. :D
>>58418258I'm here. I only hold btc and a little hut8 for shits n giggles.
Fuck btc. Although I'm scalping btcfdusd now but it's a slow coin. I'm a degen for life. I'll lose it all or make it big. No middle ground for me. But degen trading can have risk management. It all depends on the trader
>>58418343Good luck fren. When you make it, remember that btc is always there for you if you need it. You may reject it now but it will never reject you.
>>58418350I don't hate btc. It's just a way to store your wealth not a good trad subject for someone in a hurry. I will certainly convert my unused money into btc. It's better than gold for me.
Neat that they made it glow
>>58418354Very based. Ygmi.
last block with 6.25 has a bunch of shit stuffed into it so transaction fees on it are insane. I guess it is the trunes people.Just the fees on it are 28 bitcoin so far
halved. done. gz.
>>58418362Holy shit lmao it's up to 3M sats/vB nowLet's go boys
>5350 fee
Uhhh now what?
>The last Bitcoin halving happened on Apr 19 2024, 17:09:27uhh bros?
well i was here, i would say it was fun but it really wasn't, imma go masturbate for a while
It's over :DHoooray
I can feel the warm embrace of something greater than me
Some launch a coin and make the ticker the transaction of the block XDYou will make good money
>>58418383Same. I got about 10 tabs open on jav guru.
first block with the lower subsidy. but the fees are way higher atm because the trunes or ordinals fags are going crazy so miners getting more. Neat anyways
So when does the price crash so I can buy more???
So that's it?No pump?
>>58418258>You know although I'm not new to bitcoin, I've never bothered watching it happen live before.I watched bitcoin magazine's livestream like I did back in 2020. What was nice about that one is the halving block itself was treated as a total non-event (the only thing people took note of was that it actually got reorg'd) and they had some interesting interviews - I remember enjoying hearing from the Trezor guys. But this time they had all this fanfare on the last block, doing shots and stuff, and instead of interviewing the Trezor guys they just have some clueless Mexican bitch.
>>58418387
>>58418408Read: >>58415748
>>58418411Damn that amount could change my life forever. And he just threw it to be on stupid block. Such is life.
I heard from an Ocean miner guy that even using their template for blocks (which filters out stuff they consider spam like trunes) they would get 6 bitcoin in fees right now. Not sure how that works. Ocean Mining is the miner that Jack Dorsey has been backing.
>>58418422I know. It's just weird when you think about it. How people find it so easy to waste such amount simply because they have too much and it means nothing to them. They never consider how much it would mean to someone without rent or food or meds or clothes or anything. One of the things that motivate me to get into degen trading is to become rich enough to help all the cases I come across. Helping people brings such a joy to us human if we haven't lost our humanity too much.
>>58418440yeah that block was crazy, rewards were more than last halving's final block
>>58418410Almost as if Bitcoin had promise and relevance back then. This time nobody cares unless the number goes up. In the coming weeks it will become clear that Bitcoin is finally dead.
>>58418453BTC is an immortal dim wit
>>58418453Seethe some more shitcoin faggot with the old shambolic narratives you put your ego into. The amount of spoonfeeding I would have to do to cure you of your delusions would be insane and you don't deserve it.
What does the future hold for the Lightning Network? Are there any other viable solutions to scaling?
>>58418494any projects in the work or is this a meme?
>>58418411>>58418420Can you guys explain to me what that means like im 5? The reward is 3 btc (now) for the block but they are paying 60k to 100k+ to be in the block? How does that work for a miner? Who gets the reward?
>>58418567Whoever processes the Transaction gets the fee, who ever finds the block gets the reward.
do these halvings do anything for the bitcoin price
>>58416043>>58416114Stimulus works if the government chooses to stimulate actually productive and profitable industries, whose profits can cancel out the effects of currency debasement. Unfortunately, government isn't good at this one job, hence the total clown market. The alternative is the ancap paradise of limited or no government economic intervention, which has other drawbacks, like high inequality through emergent monopolies. Arguably it happens either way, thoughbeit.
>>58417521There are different classes of altcoins.>alts with legitimate value propositions>alts with potential but unproven value propositions>alts with no value proposition (scams)The first class is exemplified by ETH amd a few others. Generally speaking the market has converged on a stable ratio of ETH/BTC, so when BTC goes up after the halving, traders see this as ETH being cheap relative to BTC, so they sell BTC and buy ETH. The second and third classes are more squishy. With the second, there might be a compelling reason to buy based on solid fundamentals and tokenomics, but will generally have no or little relation to BTC other than more unstable altcoin/BTC price, often will also require some hype to pump. The third class are useless shitcoins which pump based on hype alone. In these two cases, often BTC or ETH whales will realize some of their gains and gamble with it for multipliers. This is the late stage of the bull run.
>>58415659It's pronounced colonel and it's the highest rank in the military
>>58418435>One of the things that motivate me to get into degen trading is to become rich enough to help all the cases I come across. Helping people brings such a joy to us human if we haven't lost our humanity too much.you aren't going to do that when you actually have the money
>>58419007I hope I will. But you never know. Money do change people. But you sound so sure that I won't XD
>>58415575I woke up just in time to witness the halving (in the last block before the halving).What did God mean by this?
>>58418435Dullard. You can't eat BTC, giving a parasite resources only makes the world poorer
>>58418681>stimulate actually productive and profitable industries, whose profits can cancel out the effects of currency debasementEconomic calculation problem. It is literally impossible for the State to do that
