>The Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore [Maryland, United States] has collapsed after being struck by a large ship, videos showArticle:https://www.businessinsider.com/francis-scott-key-bridge-baltimore-collapses-after-struck-large-boat-2024-3Port camera livestream:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=83a7h3kkgPg
FUCK harbor pilots Every fucking bridge collapse it's some retard hitting it with a cargo ship
Hope everyone who was on the bridge at the time gets rescued but a bridge of that size and height doesn't make the odds very good. Maybe something good can come out of this and Baltimore sees this as a once in a generation opportunity to replace a highway with a new bridge for light rail and pedestrians.
>>1987456>replace a highway with a new bridge for light rail and pedestriansutterly retarded idea given the location and usage of that bridge
>>1987452The power goes out on the bridge about two minutes before impact. It's restored (partially?) but at the same time a lot of smoke starts coming out of the funnel.I don't think it was pilot error
>>1987458No he's onto something, but you are right. We'll have to replace I-695 and everything it's connected to with light rail and high speed rail
>>1987465>>1987452/mg/ here. 5 minutes before impact the ship blacks out twice. I bet you fucking anything they shut off the bow thruster and either forgot to tell the engine room or the the engineers didn't shut off the second generator in time.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=83a7h3kkgPg
>>1987456>pedestrians
FUCK YOU BALTIMORE!https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s8wBQqk9eJcBut seriously this seems bad.
>>1987451lol those crazy Americanos eh? What will they get up to next!?
>>1987451third world gonna third worldDrump 2024
Hard to tell in the webm but that ship looks boeing
>>1987451Jesus what an awful thing to wake up toSal's already jumping on the story to cover ithttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qZbUXewlQDk
Eternally grateful for this ship killing dozens of cagers on this bridge.
Pajeets have managed to sabotage and blockade one of the US's busiest ports for the next few months. And a bridge across this area will take at least two or three years to build and probably around a billion more. freaking hilarious. billions of damage caused.
>>1987506Unfortunately the ship communicated an SOS to local authorities when it lost power and they were able to shut down traffic onto the bridge before it collapsed.
#IndiaSuperPlower2024
>>1987511And all the major corporations in the US will respond by demanding even more H1B visas for Indians to replace American workers.
>>1987511Damn if 22 indians can wreck the local economy effortlessly like that, imagine what 1.4 billions would
>A team of investigators from the Singapore Transport Ministry's Transport Safety Investigation Bureau and MPA are on their way to Baltimore, said MPA.>The authority has offered its assistance to the US Coast Guard and the National Transportation Safety Board's Office of Marine Safety.>MPA said earlier that it would also investigate the collision.poobroos.....their going to deport you all from Singapore.....
the absolute state of mutt infrastructure.
I blame the cagers on the bridge for selfishly hogging lanes 1 person per vehicle until it couldn't handle the load anymore.Of course given that we live in a carbrained world, the kkkar lobby will insure an innocent boat captain takes the blame instead.
>>1987553I'm from a week in the future, and here's how that investigation of gonna turn out>Shipping company blames harbor pilot>Harbor pilot blames engineers on ship for poor maintenance>City of Baltimore blames Trump
>>1987469>I bet you fucking anything they shut off the bow thruster and either forgot to tell the engine room or the the engineers didn't shut off the second generator in time.literally wat>>1987493pretty solid video
>>1987570eurotards try to understand that things collapse when you ram a 200,000 ton ship into them challenge (impossible)
>>1987596yeah, imagine if it was actually possible to prevent ships from completely destroying critical infrastructure...
>>1987451The ship was named Dali. I don't understand why it wasn't softer.
>>1987451It´s like 9/11 but ships
>>1987605Essentially every one of your bridges would collapse if hit by a 200,000 ton ship.
>>1987614they literally wouldn't lollarge ships would run aground before they hit anything
>>1987616>nuhuh!Yeah ok retard. Post country.
>>1987619I don't need to post shit. But here, educate yourself, retarded mutt:https://www.thebaltimorebanner.com/community/transportation/baltimore-key-bridge-design-engineering-MZ6H4HUQOJGKRES3AYKGJZEXNI/
ain't this some chinese ass shit
>>1987622>eurocuck is terrified to post countryMany such cases. LOL.
>>1987629>dumb mutt can't even deduce where I livelmaolook at a map, retard
>>1987631>still squealing and crying because he doesn't want to admit where he livesLOL
>>1987633so you can't read a mapmutt education everyone, lmao
>>1987636>only one eurocuck country has bridgesLol anyway look at this eurocuck piece of shit. Imagine it getting clapped by a 200,000 ton ship and collapsing immediately.
>reeee pajeet eurocuck faggot cry more you stupid baby amermutt nigger nigger trannythis is the kind of high quality transportation discussion I love about this board
Forth Bridge is so psychotically overbuilt it would probably sink ships that collided with it.
summary so far:1. Power on the entire ship goes out 5 minutes before impact, partially flickers on, then goes black again as it hits the pillar, black smoke starts billowing at some point, ship also oddly veers starboard side suggesting they lost steering2. Crew is all Indian3. Power and steering problems could not have been the pilots fault4. Probably unrelated to this specific incident but the Maryland port commissioner is a female DEI consultant who is absolutely not doing her job of keeping the port safe5. Also only tangentially related, the ship Ever Given which caused the Suez Canal blockage and had an economic impact on the order of tens of billions of dollars, was also caused by an all Indian crew
^this fag just got dunked on in the /mg/ thread btw. he's a dumb redditor.
>>1987644Ranjesh, "redditor" doesnt mean whatever youd like it to mean"redditors" go to great lengths not to appear racist, I am racistI want to turn the subcontinent into a nuclear wasteland, in an act of mercy
>>1987639>finds a bridge leading to 0 (zero) container terminalslollmaoat least you can navigate a map
>>1987643Some youtube guy who sounds smart said the veering could have been the result of desperate reverse engine because it makes the rudder not work. Basically they thought were going to crash anyway and they hoped to slow it down
>>1987647Oh you poor little retard
>>1987651>retard gets called out for retardation>"n-no u"lmfaoit never ends
heres the pilot (woman)
>>1987654Anon, you just got completely btfo. It's time to stop.
>>1987656How? There is literally no large container ships going under that bridge. I also don't know if that bridge is protected from the ships that do go under it, since I'm not a fucking frog.
>>1987657First off, not all extremely large ships are container ships. Secondly, you can literally see containers and cranes in the background of that pic you fucking retard.
>>1987622>our bridges don’t need ships to crash into them to fail Why are Euros so delusional?
>>1987658Oh nooo, I missed some tiny-ass feeder port. Whatever will I do?Extremely large ships can't even get in there you absolute moron.
>>1987664Damn you're coping hard. Just accept you're a total faggot and also wrong. Btw the ship in the pic would fucking btfo that concrete pillar.What is wrong with eurocucks?
>>1987667You know nothing about the area around the pillars, retard. Those """gigantic""" ships might not even physically be able to hit the them. But please cope some more cause you lost a poor designed bridge to some retarded indians.
NTSB drone footagehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CwgOHpZlxvc
>>1987671>gets completely btfo>keeps endlessly crying and coping, moving goalpostsEurocucks are so pathetic. It's grating. Grow some balls.Those pillars are hittable. It's just hoped they won't be. Stop posting.
>>1987655White boomer? Probably competent. She came up under real discrimination so she had to be good or she'd've been drummed out.
Baltimorean here. So sad to look out my window and not see the bridge anymore. One of the only good looking things in this dump of a city.
I work in supply chain stuff in NYC, relying a lot on port newark. Wonder how if this will fuck us over at all.
I think you'd have to look back to the tampa bay bridge collision disaster for comparison, fortunately this one won't cause as many losses in lives. Also a reminder that concrete pillars would have been obliterated just as easily (two on the right).
When the ship lost power, why didn't the crew divert auxiliary power to the engines? Shouldn't that be like a standard procedure available to Engineering? Was the chief engineer not at his station to do this?
>>1987694They did, but they needed to reserve some power for the inertial damping field and the structural integrity field because impact became inevitable past a certain point
>>1987648Not with that much way on. Not only would it take longer for a backing engine to have that much affect, going astern is so blindingly retardedly the wrong thing to do. They almost missed the bridge with just an anchor; if they got the engines back all they'd have to do is put it full ahead to get water over the rudder and they'd swing clear.
>>1987511>all-Indian crewimagine the smell
>>1987642Understandable after what happened the first time
>>1987511>>1987534This is Russian GRU sabotage.
>>1987511>And a bridge across this area will take at least two or three years to buildThis bridge would never be rebuilt. You will see, current America can't pull ot such project. It would run into death spiral of costs overrun and would be eventually canceled.
>>1987715I can tell you know your way around ships because your english is all fucked up
>>1987642cracktschhhh *sips*now that is what I call a real bridge
>>1987740highly unlikely. Ivan can't crack a fart west of the Canary Islands without Uncle Sam's permission, and the russkie glowies wouldn't start a proxy war with China via a US port anyhow. It doesn't make sense.
>>1987675thisholy christ that was pathetic
>>1987675>>1987803cope seethe and dial-8, samefagtakes a ship to hit a bridge for lards to realize that maybe that's a thing that could happen even though it has happened beforeI guess the new one will be less collapse pronehttps://ca.news.yahoo.com/baltimores-bridge-collapse-recalls-lessons-100006326.html?guccounter=1
>>1987813At least now you're trying to change the subject to distract from anyone else noticing how badly you got wrecked. A wiser person would have just stayed away.
>>1987815Yeah, I totally got wrecked by some retard who couldn't guess where I'm from, even though it's blatantly obvious since basically no other countries here have any bridges that large ships go under, yes. Lol. Lmao.
>>1987813>takes a ship to hit a bridge for lards to realize that maybe that's a thing that could happen even though it has happened beforeI think it's less "realize" and more "actively care about and apportion resources."Like if no one is willing to put up the dosh for the proofing, you can make the risk utterly apparent and fuck all will happen until the "see, I told you so!" moment occurs. Now that is nothing to defend, but you make it sound like realizing a problem is enough to resolve it. >>1987815You are not talking about transportation in this reply. Please try to include more even if someone replying to you is wrong and you really really need to call it out. Last words are empty words on their own.
>>1987817Fair points, I guess. It was possible to secure funding for such projects here.
>>1987813>he's still whining
>instead of /mg/ autists discussing how this could have happened, nu-/n/ is full of Europeans seething about Americans, and r/fuckcars baseding out because now they can get a heckin pedestrian friendly bridge Looks like the power went out twice before the impact. No power=no steering. Not sure about baltimore specifically but winds and tides can be rough, it's easy to imagine the ship got pulled into the bridge pillar.
When will we stop the boat menace?
>>1987851Hey it could be worse. In the actual /mg/ there's /pol/tard board tourists blaming it on niggers.
>>1987920Lol that guy got completely into your mind
Crane ship
>>1988122Or rather, a crane they found and drove onto a barge lol
>>1987851The two theories for the ship steering into the pillar are that is was either caused by crew throwing the engines into reverse, which causes asymmetric thrust as they all spin in the same direction (propeller walk), or they deployed only one of the ships anchors which would end up turning the ship.But only the final report can clarify the events.
>>1987739You're thinking of the Tay Bridge, not the Forth Bridge.
>>1988122NORTHSTAB is pretty metal name fore a bote
>>1988163It would be a hell of a name for an Arctic icebreaker. That one actually says Northstar, though.https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/shipid:449972/zoom:14
https://youtu.be/m8beWFKY83M
>>1987639not a engineer but i could imagine this bridge still standing after getting one of the smaller pilars taken out and not colapse completly
>>1988170jeez they went out sea without fixing their electrical issues?
>>1987642what a beast
>>1987482they were pajeets
i bet the 2 pilots were having gay sex instead of steering the ship
>>1988168>Largest crane on the Eastern Seaboard>It's a boat with a typical crawler crane According to all the media articles it says the crane can handle 1000 tons, but the brochure for this crane shows it at 210 tons. Also the bridge itself is ridiculously heavy. They'll have to get crews to cut up the bridge sections into smaller pieces to do this job. source on crane specs>https://media.cranepedia.com/uploads/2022/08/HC210_brochure_en.pdf
>>1987511General public is gonna find soon enough how incompetent Indians are with more of them being in the open in the West. This site is full of college students and tech workers so we already know about them. The rest of the West really has no clue how bad Indians are.
>>1988243They're probably bringing in a bigger crane right now
>>1988250They're like anybody else. It's an issue of whether they actually learned critical thinking and problem solving or if they didn't. I've seen plenty of white kids fresh out of college interviewing at my company that didn't learn either. For this incident specifically, I don't see anything the crew actually did wrong. This is on the owners for cheaping out, and where have we seen that before?
>>1988122Make the call...shes in the north sea though.
>>1988170Found out the NTSB has a youtube channelhttps://youtu.be/UIA5uH-i08I
>>1988268>This is on the owners for cheaping outOn cheaping out and hiring Indians, sure. Fucking up maintenance of the electrical system is on the crew, though.
>>1988237Can't steer a ship when curry drips onto the electrical box and turns off the rudder
Amazing how 1 fuckup that lasts a few seconds is gonna destroy the economy of one of America's largest cities. It's only hilarious that it happened to a city where Black Nationalists are in charge and it was done by Indians.
>>1988237Not even gay men would be interested in Indian gay sex. The SMELL of Curry butt sex must be horrid.
>>1988282Correct. Pajeets like rape. Rape is all they understand.
>>1988285400 different men? is it bad if I want to know what she looks like now? or at least looked like prior to the 400 men getting to her?
>>1988282I remember an anon who worked in immigration say the worst people to detain are indians because of the smell. The Latino immigrants apparently begged to be removed from the same holding areas as the Indians.
Just make the island big enough to ground the boat before it hits the pillar. That's all you have to do.
>>1988291Not uncommon from what I've read, the men form "communities" of rapist and often abuse women/children then gang rape them.88 rapes per day (reported) and less than a 30% conviction rate. A rapist paradise.
>>1988293Not surprising. The few Pajeets I've come across smell like a mix of sever BO and unwashed asshole. Don't touch them or shake their hands.
>>198829830% is actually astronomically high. In the west the estimates are something like less than 1% of rapes end up in anyone getting convicted of a crime. but in the west most rapists are known to and trusted by the victim. maybe in india stranger rape is so common that it's more likely to end in charges and a conviction
>>1988150That's not right at all. Prop walk only happens when you get sternway on; throwing the engine into reverse won't make the ship turn until the propeller has overcome the force the water moving along the ship as its moving foward. The ship is supposed to be single screw anyways.And they did only drop one anchor. The port anchor. Which means it would have been pulling the ship to port, and if the report about them not actually getting the engine back online is true, is the only reason the ship turned to port at all near the end.
>>1988296Either that or build a span that doesn't have piers in the water to begin with
>>1987642This bridge is so cool. One of my favorites for sure.
>>1988307That’s 30% of reported rapes ending with convictions. That 1% figure is based on an estimate of unreported rapes.
>>1988307>>1988361>That 1% figure is based on an estimate of unreported rapes.Yeah, claims which are suspect to say the least.The issue with the 30% number is that basing off reported rapes the very nature of a false allegation means that 100% of them are included in the numbers while the actual ratio of real to reported is entirely unknown.Say you have 10 real rapes and 10 false allegations, with half (5) of the real rapes going unreported. That leaves your final reported numbers as 5 real and 10 false, for an apparent 33% real to false rate.This disparity skyrockets when you have suspect data collection, like having some survey ask people if they ever had "unwanted sexual contact" with no further qualification and then some retard feminist counts everyone who answers "yes" as an unreported rape.
>>1987607it should have wrapped around the pillar like a wet hanging towel
I have my captains license and run a private yacht for a family. My thoughts, for what it's worth:-Surprised they didn't have tugs guiding them out-When they lost power almost looks like when the power came back on the autopilot activated and turned them hard over before losing power again.
>>1988454>Surprised they didn't have tugs guiding them outRumor is Buttgiggle (transportation secretary) changed the rules on ship size requiring tug escort under the guise of climate change/reduced emissions.
>>1988483yeah I'm sure big gay government shoved the no-tugboats marxism down the throats of the proud white man using black people and it wasn't just a cost-cutting measure
>>1988483>Rumor is Buttgiggle (transportation secretary) changed the rules on ship size requiring tug escort under the guise of climate change/reduced emissions.That would be a matter of public record, why don't you find out?
>>1987511This is perfect for anyone who wants to redevelop Baltimore in their car-centric, gentrified image. All the port businesses are hosed and their land goes up for sale, Maryland has to shift funds from the Red Line/whatever was coming after the Purple Line to rebuild the bridge.>Can't we just clear the debris and not spend billions on a new bridge?Lol no
>>1987683It's been downhill ever since we lost Otakon.
>>1988483>>1988488Even if it's a matter of record, taking Mr. CIA at his word is ill-advised at best.
soot
>>1988483Those regulations are set by the individual ports you fucking retarded faggot. Not only are they set by the ports if the weather's not bad you rarely see ships having to take tugs for bridge transits with such a wide channel.You Have To Go Back.
>>1987456>bro we need a 3 mile long pedestrian bridgebait used to be believable
cutting the steel now
>>1988570Channel is going to be open in under 2 weeks, maybe under 1
>>19885772 more 2 weeks
>>1988508>OtakonThanks for reminding me of what website I'm on. I need to fix my life.
>>1988564>amerifat is mindbroken by the prospect of willingly walking more than however far away his car is parked
>>1988588Don't forget, you're here forever.
>>1988602I'm from Germany but nice bait attempt I guess.3 miles or 5km is well beyond the general walkability radius, a 3 mile bridge would take nearly an hour for pedestrians to pass. The basic walkability radius in Germany is about 15 minutes and the extended walkability radius is about 30 minutes. The distance between the closest residential areas on each side of the bridge is even twice as long at around 6 miles. Most people will never willingly walk six miles. I myself have only walked that distance or more as part of university field trips
>>1988687It also connects two industrial/port areas. Who is going to be walking or bicycling between those? Nobody, but I guarantee you that there is already someone figuring out how to pressure politicians to include an expensive bike/pedestrian path that few people will use.Another point is how unpleasant and unsafe it is to put pedestrian corridors right next to a freeway. The entire time you'd be walking or bicycling across it, you'd be eagerly anticipating getting back off on the other side.
>>1988697It's not wrong to have a bike path on the side imo. My experience is that a lot of people love in my old home town love cycling through the harbor area simply because it gives a great sight over the harbor itself as well as the high income neighbourhoods on the other side of the river, which have some really nice villages and a great natural topography.>Another point is how unpleasant and unsafe it is to put pedestrian corridors right next to a freeway.This is definitely a problem they would need to adress if they were to build a bike path, a noise blocking wall would probably be the bare minimum needed
>>1988699>>1988699This is not ye quaint olde harbor with tall ships, it is a modern port that in total covers square miles. If you ever go to one, you'll see how ugly and uninviting they are. Chain link fences with concertina wire as far as you can see plus the constant rumble of trucks coming and going. Many huge, ugly warehouses. They're not interesting places to be on foot or on a bike, it's just a place where cargo gets transloaded and unless you work there most of it is off limits. If someone needs to go from one industrial side of the river to the other industrial side, they're not going to walk for miles to do it.>a noise blocking wall would probably be the bare minimum neededWhat bridges have noise abatement walls on them?
>>1988701>This is not ye quaint olde harbor with tall shipsThe harbor in my old home town is the third largest harbor in Europe and far busier than Baltimore (if measured by processing of twenty-ton equivalent units)>>1988702>What bridges have noise abatement walls on them?The new autobahn bridge across the Rhine river between Leverkusen and northern Cologne
>>1988703>The harbor in my old home towni.e. not Baltimore>>1988703>The new autobahn bridgeLet's see a pic
>>1987451On a well designed bridge, that second span would not have fallen down.
>>1988750Which second span and why?
>>1988750It’s a continuous truss bridge. Any similar bridge would have collapsed exactly the same way.
bridge section being taken away
>>1987466Don't forget a monorail to make it obvious to anyone.
Who/what are Baltinogs going to rename the new bridge after?
Hello, out-of-towner here. Is this a home for bridge stream watchers?
Man, those are some big cranes.
>>1988687>3 miles or 5km is well beyond the general walkability radiusJust checked the (ex) bridge on a map. You know, absolute most basic fact check.The parts you'd want to have walkability/cycleability between are really just about 2.5km apart, at least on the bridge. It's probably more a cycle thing though; the southern end has quite a bit of industrial before you get to any uses, but the northern end has residential before you get to major industrial.>>1988702Most of the serious docks are upriver from the bridge; only bulk cargo facilities really seem to be downriver. The bridge never really connected well with any of them; the 95 and 895 tunnels seem more important for cargo.
Hearing that this is likely going to be one of the biggest insurance losses ever. Not just for the bridge and boat, but everyone who's had to reroute stuff due to the loss of access on both road and sea.Probably going to be years of lawyers trying to squeeze money from everyone involved and a rise in the cost of insuring shipping that ultimately gets passed on to us consumers.
>>1988318Just build a tunnel
>>1989058>the 95 and 895 tunnels seem more important for cargo.Hazmat can't go through tunnels, though, silly.
>>1989108That was one of the designs considered before they built the original bridge. A four lane bridge ended up being something like 15% less expensive than a two lane tunnel that was proposed.
Sorry limited refunds thank you for playin'https://fortune.com/2024/04/01/baltimore-francis-scott-key-bridge-liability-cap-44-million-singapore/
>>1989168Foreigners should have no rights.
>>1989175shit people without a passport say
>>1989113Most cargo isn't hazmat. Hazmat will just have to take the long way round.
https://www.baltimoresun.com/2024/04/02/photos-show-key-bridge-wreckage-at-bottom-of-river/
>>1989226>>1989227Awesome how good sonar scanning is now. I feel so bad for the poor guys on it when it went down and their families.Any idea how deep the channel was under the main span?
Stupid question: Why do they keep the crew on the ship after the wreck? They're still there.
>>1989258They need to keep the ship ready for when they can get it hauled away
>>1988796Is it still in vogue to name everything in America after George Floyd?
>>1989258Tonnes of reasons, a few of which are summed up herehttps://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-68708593Basically:>theoretically they're still paid crew there and are or will be involved in recovery operations>the crew members aren't cleared to disembark in the US and need to have papers processed for it>the company that owns the ship doesn't care about their wellbeing and would prefer to keep them there as paid crew who can eventually move the ship if possible rather than put any effort/ money into getting them off the boat and then having to hire new people to get involved
>>1987689maybe enclosing harbors with giant bridges isn't a good idea
>>1989279Plus they've got supplies for at least a couple weeks, if the ship isn't in immediate danger it's just like they're on a normal voyage.
>>1989168I know nothing about maritime law but I wonder if it makes a difference that the accident wasn't on the open seas but was within the territorial waters of the US.
>>1989168>1851is this some sort of pirate code?
>>1989279Also they need to keep the ship running so they can make sure it doesn't start to move unexpectedly.
kek they zoomed in to see people moving around on the bridge
>>1989269>>1989279Neat
Ahoy!
>>1988757>Any similar bridge would have collapsed exactly the same way.Simple fix: Just don't dredge the ship channel that close to the supports. Some moron pajeets head for the columns. Whoops. You ran aground.
>>1989575lol yeah, wouldn't want to hit another bridge
>>1989575>make sure it doesn't start to move unexpectedlyAnchors.
>>1989795Anchors don't really mean anything for a ship this size
>>1989798Not accurate.
What was the big smoke all bout tho?
>>1989892Rumor has it, that ship was capable of switching between types of fuel, and a malfunction of that system ultimately lead to this incident (and that smoke cloud).
>>1987491This. lol @ameripoors
>>1987654He made you look silly. There's no way round it.
>>1987695Kek
>>1988602You forgot>without xhe's mobility scooter
>>1989892>What was the big smoke all bout tho?R/o/llin' coal, you bitch.
section finally freed
Eh... they're pushing the barge while the bridge section dangles from the crane.
>>1989206S A V A G EAVAGE>>1989175He's done you, fat kid
>>1988296>implying>>1988318Burgers like this will have that kind of intellect lol
>>1988388Don't leave your drink unattended near this guy
>>1990133Tourists are the fattest of all tho.
>>1989422Bit boring though lol
>>1989756>moron pajeets>not moron burgers who can't builtd safe thing
>>1990138Like you'd know, Cletus kek
>>1990134?
>>1987451That's why on modern bridge with big boats traffic you're doing things like that
>>1992486Read the thread
>>1988388False rape accusations can be bad, AND rapists going unpunished can be bad. Maybe 1 in 10 rape claims are false, if that. Yes it's terrible. Doesn't mean it's 50:50 like you seem to think
