Four states are categorized as “uncertain,” meaning the likelihood of a Trump victory in the state is less than 65 in 100: Nevada (64 in 100), Pennsylvania (63 in 100), Wisconsin (59 in 100) and Michigan (56 in 100).

The model predicts a Trump victory is “likely” — meaning 65-85 in 100 — in Georgia (76 in 100) and in Arizona (69 in 100).

The Economist notes that each of those six states has a varying degree of importance to each candidate. The model predicts the likelihood of Pennsylvania deciding the election outcome is 24 percent, and the likelihood for Michigan is 14 percent. The other states are below 10 percent.

For Biden, victories in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are especially important to win the electoral college. The model predicts Biden has a 5-100 chance of reelection if he loses Michigan, a 7-100 shot if he loses Pennsylvania and a 9-100 shot if he loses Wisconsin.

A loss in Arizona or Nevada would bring Biden’s chances down to 20 in 100, while a loss in Georgia would bring his chances to 24 in 100.

Pennsylvania will be key for a Trump victory as well. A loss in Pennsylvania brings the likelihood of his victory down from 66 in 100 to 21 in 100. A loss in either Michigan or Wisconsin would bring the likelihood down to 30 in 100. An Arizona loss would mean he still has a 35-100 shot, a Georgia loss gives him a 37-100 shot, and a Nevada loss would give him a 42-100 shot.

The model then runs 10,001 scenarios, which each contain “different vote shares in each state and different values for the impact of polling biases and other characteristics.” The final determination reflects the percentage of scenarios each candidates won.

>>1303696
>according to The Economist’s election forecast model launched Wednesday.
Into the trash it goes!

>>1303703
There is literally nothing wrong with globalism.

Bidensisters, I don't feel too good

>>1303696
538 says about 50/50

https://abcnews.go.com/538/trump-biden-tied-538s-new-election-forecast/story?id=110789256

>>1303709
Don't listen to the American polling organization, this british magazine polls is better.

>>1303704
>instead of stores all around you can choose to shop at or not, we have decided 1 super store will be the one stop spot that is all thats necessary to accomodate the earth. please make your way to our centralized global facility in tel aviv, wait in line for years, and pay whatever price we decide because fuck you there is nowhere else to go...
Globalism

>>1303730
Nationalism died with the 20th century, you're wearing clothes made in China

>election forecasts

Oh bay, are we here already? You remember all the 'forecasts' that said Hillary would win? 90%, 95%, shit like that?

Why are you proud of 66%?

>>1303731
So sell me on globalism. Where are the benefits? Cheap legal slave labour? A supreme leader? I havent seen any nation fully realize even half a utopia but somehow if we make them all bow to global supreme leader theyll somehow just blossom into paradise?? Who sits in this devils throne enslaving mankind? We arent exactly swimming with supreme leader quality people. Do you think on any of these things?

>>1303733
I don't know where you got the idea that globalism leads to a utopian paradise but it certainly cuts down the price of goods for consumers and induces more competition.

>>1303733
Open up your computer. If there's so much as one component in it that says 'Made in China' on it, congratulations: you're not only a part of globalism, you're a party to it.
Welcome to the party. Drinks are over there...!

This just in: Hillary Clinton has a 98% chance of winning the election, based on all the polls we conducted

>/news/ won't let me upload a slowpoke.jpg

>>1303742
>>1303732
It's like you people are literally paid to say the same lines

What you are highlighting is the fact that the polls are democrat-biased, as you have clearly shown.
Check out the historical 2016 and 2020 national biases, in both cases you have to adjust R+ to even out the bias.

>>1303750
>polls are democrat-biased
Its what happens when the country is about 25% Trump supporters, 75% of the country doesn't support the orange rapist.
Its why Republicunts try to stop people from voting, 100% of Americans voting means they lose every election going forward.

>>1303740
>trading with foreign nations is basicly globalism...
No, and you didnt address any of the concerns

>>1303754
>NVidia investing heavily in Vietnam
...and you're not concerned about that?
>whining about globalism by retards
Something like the United Federation of Planets in Star Trek: no separate countries, the world governed by the Federation based in San Francisco? I'd have no problem with that.
>whining by anti-semites: The Man in the High Castle not a documentary
>what happened 80 years ago made sure of that. The UN & EU since: both good things
I for one welcome our new Jewish overlords: they're infinitely superior to inferior subhuman anti-semites.

>>1303752
Source: some gaping tranny ass

>>1303750
>the polls are democrat-biased
Funny, because all the same polls in 2022 were predicting a RED TSUNAMI that would sweep the House and Senate.
Except that never fucking happened, because the pollsters overcompensated and ended up with a massive R bias that did not manifest itself at the ballot box. And it's been the same way for those post-Dobbs abortion referendums, recent polls have consistently failed to accurately predict the results of those.
These polls and "election forecasts" are fundamentally flawed because their methodology is broken and their traditional polling base is no longer representative of the wider electorate. They were broken in 2016, broken in 2022, and there's no reason to believe they've fixed anything since.

>>1303730
And yet when leftists want to stop this logical end result of unlimited capital accumulation and government capture, right wingers scream about how evil trans people are and how evil commies are gonna take over. If only you could see that capital is the enemy

>>1303700
The Economist is a never-trumper rag. Aka it's anti-Trump GOP.

>>1303760
Have you seen how every country in the history of the world turned out under communism?

You people keep regurgitating "end stage capitalism" garbage, but capitalism has been how the majority of the world has operated for all of written human history, people had private property and traded it for things of value. They would often kill each other over fueds over private property.

>>1303779
Nice false dichotomy. Why is communism the automatic opposite of capitalism for you? Why can't there be other less damaging kinds of capitalism?

>>1303780
>Why can't there be other less damaging kinds of capitalism?
Like Chinese-style communism?
No thanks, Chang

>>1303782
No, not like Chinese style communism. Not communism at all. More like Costa Rica
https://www.visualcapitalist.com/state-of-democracy-around-the-world-2023/.

I understand your confusion with communism.. On the surface its all for one and one for all! But this just isnt how people work. Once its all for one, the rest get none every fucking time. Why should they?? What WE are doing is much more important...
And then come the killings. Capitalism is a form of economy. Not governence. Communism in reality is the goverment takes over the economy and produces whatever they want with no regard to the actual people they govern which is why the USSRs budget for war making was greater in the early 1900s then the USA in the 2000s..
Did the people like their super powerful military?? Well we will never know because 100M of them starved.

>>1303806
Good post

>>1303779
>but capitalism has been how the majority of the world has operated for all of written human history, people had private property and traded it for things of value
ah yes, those noble capitalist kings who simply pulled themselves above the peasantry by their bootstraps, those profit-minded roman emperors, the vast stores of money the khans and huns sought, the list goes on.

>>1303809
Capitalism has a better human rights track record than communism.

>>1303859
It isn't an either/or argument like you think it is

>>1303859
There is no communist faction in the United States

>>1303696
I really don't hope trump gets elected because I don't want Dems to blame him for the poor economic opportunity being caused by biden's disastrous policies

>>1303756
Republicans never win the popular vote and are the engine behind gerrymandering. Being a Republican in America is being a minority.

>>1303696
Same polls that said hillary would win lmao

>>1304012
They are often democrat biased, yes

>>1304041
Reality is democrat-biased, correct

>>1303806
So weird to say communism doesn’t work because people are selfish then you shill for capitalism which you are correct is an economic system not a social system, but unchecked capitalism leads to consolidation of wealth and gives us the Corporatocracy we find ourselves in now.

Your arguement against communism is a better arguement against unchecked or “free market” capitalism, people are selfish asdholes and must be forced to share.

>>1304055
Your post reeks of esl, chang

the conviction of Trump for a paperwork technicality will be for the 2024 election cycle what Hillary Clinton's basket of deplorables speech was for the 2016 election
the issue is not that Trump looks, or even is, corrupt
to quite an extent, Biden looking or being corrupt is also a non-issue
nailing your chief political rival for a paperwork technicality looks DESPERATE
in US politics, you can BE desperate, but you can't LOOK desperate
you can look weak, corrupt, mean, nice, smart, stupid
but you CANNOT look DESPERATE
nothing arouses disgust and contempt more than a desperate political candidate

>>1304075
Good post

>>1304077
How so?

>>1304078
democrats were talking about Trump being an election meddler, election denier, Russia puppet, etc for years
not a dude who misfiles paperwork, which is what they're nailing him on with the NY case
getting him on the Fulton County, GA election interference case would have definitely hurt his chances of winning because democrats were talking about election interference forever
it connects two circuits
instead, they get him on ANYTHING, a paperwork technicality, and it smacks of desperation
people don't want to vote for a party that looks so desperate to win that they will do everything in their power to nail their chief political opponent for breaking paperwork rules

>>1304082
it's funny how you have to admit he's a felon now, so your next best option is to downplay it

>>1304083
listen dude: if you're a shill, free or paid, then whatever, enjoy yourself
however, if you're being serious, then it's frankly sad and upsetting that you are incapable of addressing anything that I said in my posts
no one cares whether Donald Trump is a felon or not
guess what? no one cares whether Joe Biden, or Hunter Biden, or Hillary Clinton, or whomever is a felon
there is an assumption on the part of most voters that politics are dirty and they're all involved in corruption in some way
they get away with things that regular people cannot
it is baked into the cake and not an important consideration during elections
X and Y always call each other corrupt during elections
the polls have improved for Donald Trump post-conviction
why do you think that is?
I'm telling you: it's because it looks DESPERATE, and you cannot look desperate in a US political campaign
you can spew out whatever brain rot keywords or memes that you think are going to upset me or hurt my feelings, but the reality is that Biden's chances of winning his re-election are not good

>>1304084
>no one cares whether Donald Trump is a felon or not
you're caring right now, otherwise you wouldn't have posted all that denial-laden text

>>1304086
>>1304087
this is a discussion forum, you double-posting retard
people are going to post their opinions
I'm sorry if you don't like that but you chose to come here, so I don't know what to tell you

>>1304089
this is a forum where right wingers lie 24/7, and you're one of them

>>1304091
what you're doing right now is an act of desperation
unable and unwilling to have a discussion with someone or even address their points directly, you retreat into insults
this is why the democrats are going to lose

>>1304092
pointing out that you're a liar isn't an insult, it's an observation. saying "nobody cares that trump is a felon" is an especially absurd lie given trump himself is furious about it.

>>1304094
I'm not talking about what Trump thinks about it, I'm talking about what voters think about it
Republican, undecided, and Independent voters increasingly thing it's desperate and the polls reflect this

>>1304097
you can believe your own lie and pretend it's actually good that trump is a felon, no skin off my back. like you said, this is a discussion board and i'm free to point out your behavior

>>1304097
>carefully designed polls citing mostly boomers reflect this
It'd be dangerous if people cared what Boomers thought about, for sure.

>>1304097
>>1304098
The polls don’t reflect that my dude. The exact opposite. Trump’s power wanes because in reality even the other republicans hate him. He is terrible for their brand and terrible for the right in general. He not cares about himself and every time he speaks lately that becomes more clear. Remember he said just this week “ I don’t care about you, I just want your vote” to a large crowd of his supporters.

Even the republicans hope he crashes and burns because he can’t help but say the quiet part out loud. I know you like to hear a rich man who has never worked a day in his life bitch about his problems, but more and more it is putting people off.

>>1304121
>he not care
>he bad
ok, changfei

The right wing meltdown continues

>>1304138
Oh auto correct, must be Chinese right? Your desire to dismiss instead of engage with facts is telling of the weakness of your position. Keep trolling kid. The adults will continue having a real conversation around you.

>>1304121
Blatant ESL shill

>>1303782
Nice job proving anon's point about false dichotomies

>>1303696
swing state polling says otherwise

>>1304042
So Hillary did win?