What happens to profit margins of US companies when the US government runs out of rugs to pull out from under Chinese competitors? Eventually, China is going to become fully self-sufficient in turbofans, microchip manufacturing equipment, etc.
>>62274978My dear child, China just learned how to make the tiny ball bearings for ballpoint pens about five years ago. Most of "their" tech is IP they've stolen from companies that were forced by their investors to set up manufacturing in China because "it's so cheap, bro!" China still cannot make modern jet engines; their best effort is a 1960s era Rolls-Royce engine copy that Rolls-Royce inexplicably sold them a complete manufacturing license and all the tech for. (Read Stanley Hooker's biography "Not Much of an Engineer" and you have to wonder which side the British were on during the Cold War.)By the time China catches up to where we are today, we'll have cities on Mars.
>>62274978>ITS DA CATACLYSM INCOMING>ITS DA HYPERINFLASHUN>ITS DA BANK RUNkys
>>62275081You sound like a person who has been in a coma since 2006.You're talking about the Rolls Royce Spey as China's best turbofan, as if that was up-to-date info. Leaving aside the matter of low-bypass turbofans, since that isn't relevant to the airliner industry, China's best high-bypass turbofan in production right now is the WS-20, which is the relatively conservative design with a bypass ratio of 6 and so is basically on par with 1970s tech. The more more ambitious CJ-1000A is in flight testing right now and is supposed to be ready by 2028. It will probably be delayed, but once it is ready, the C919 will have a competitive engine that can't be export controlled. The engine is the most difficult part to substitute and so is the main rugpull threat holding back investment into expansion of C919 production lines right nowWhat is the point you wanted to make by highlighting ballpoint pen bearings? It's a highly niche industry, with relatively little money involved. It sounds to me like you're saying that, some years ago, the Chinese became so good at the technology relevant to ballpoint pen bearings that it became feasible for them to start to compete in the market with the industry leaders abroad? Was that meant as an illustration of how the Chinese are seemingly gunning for every industry, no matter how small or niche it might be?
>>62275193I'm not saying Nvidia or Micron profit margins going to be crushed tomorrow. The China threat to profits might be up to 15 years away for some industries.
>>62275278nothing ever happens. Just don't buy their shit, worst case scenario
>>62275296The US might use tariffs and bans to ward of the Chinese competition, but that won't save US companies' profits from sales in foreign markets
>>62275193well bonds don't look good for the us.
>>62274978>Eventually, China is going to become fully self-sufficient in turbofans, microchip manufacturing equipment, etc.That’s kind of the crux - the only reason they’re behind in those industries is because of the manufacturing secret sauce needed for advanced designs. Otherwise, their engineers are smarter, work harder, and there’s a fuck ton of them; they out design and out engineer western companies already. See the automotive industry - Chinese companies have leapfrogged everyone to the point where the fucking CEO of Ford drives a Xiaomi (kek). Even if you don’t believe that Chinese engineers are better, just remember that western companies have engineering offices in China (like NVIDIA) which makes copying designs stupid easy. Anyways, it’s not a matter of if but when. If you work at a university/have friends that do, it’s quite obvious that our education system has failed and we’re graduating retards compared to the Chinese. The west’s dominance in technology is soon to be over, sadly.>t. engineering consultant
>>62275374So, what does that mean for stock valuations over the long term?
