These last couple of years has been pretty generational for American tech stocks. Anything addressing the AI rollout has pretty much gone vertical. Mag7 is at ath, MU, SNDK, etc. all up 10-20x in a year. And there is plenty more. This is on the back of massive private and public AI spending (7.8tril by 2028 or whatever). These were great opportunities and could very well continue to go up.I've started looking at other countries. KOSPI up almost 200% in a year, NIKKEI almost 70% in a year. However I have noticed Chinas market is pretty much flat/slightly down. I know China is dealing with various issues (stagflation, unemployment, low productivity, gov intervention etc.), but this feels like a massive discrepancy. I'm gathering a list of some solid Chinese tech stocks as I think they have the most room to grow. In particular I'm liking BABA, BAIDU, CQQQ and XIOAMI. These companies are all exposed to AI growth, cloud, compute and data centre rollout across China and the world. If these companies were in the USA they would automatically be trading close to 10x they are now just cause thats the norm.I am also looking at Vietnamese tech stocks too but thats more niche. I think the US market continues to do well and thats fine, but the bulk of the money has been made. Chinese tech stocks is my prediction and I would love some input as to why these aren't a good buy.
>>62286463China doesn’t want people investing into their market. Simple as that. They don’t want funny money shit. China values stability. You can invest into their blue chips I guess.
>>62286501Stability will mean China loses the AI race and enriches their biggest rival. I understand it may have been that way, but at some point they need to compete. The companies are solid, revenue and infrastructure. It almost feels like at some point the blue chips I mentioned will need to pump to compete on the stage with USA.
>>62286463If I said the American stock market was a casino, a joke, a farce or a circus, you would know exactly what I mean. (Even if it isn’t 100% true obviously) The Chinese and their culture don’t want that for their stock maket.
>>62286558>loses the AI racethere is no race. the AI mania in the west is equivalent to china spending billions on empty uninhabited ghost cities. crony capitalism
>>62286564I value your input, I just feel like at some point the difference of 300b for BABA and 3t for AMZN will eventually even itself out, and the Chinese counterparts stand to gain the most in this situation. Just an observation.>>62286572AI has revenue to back it up. And China will always need their own versions of tech so they don't overly rely on the west. Sure its crony capitalism but the $$ being transferred between different companies is ridiculous (AI -> hardware -> memory -> AI) and surely China has to engage or be left victims to the empire of the USA.
>>62286558>>62286572Yeah. There isn’t a “race.”China also has cheap energy apparently. Also, the fact Bassent and Trump literally go on tv everyday and say>China is far behind the usameans China probably isn’t behind or far behind. Even Jensen Huang said “China isn’t behind” and then immediately had to correct what he said. Since China has cheap emergy, they can just use more chips or whatever. Jensen did a segment on this.
>>62286595> surely China has to engage or be left victims to the empire of the USA.Go watch some Jensen Huang interviews. I am sure he knows more than us. He doesn’t say China is behind.
>>62286604I will thank you. But in a way does that not also mean these companies are undervalued? pic rel seems like they are a combination of google and amazon. Or maybe I am just looking at it through the lens of Americanisation.
>>62286600>then immediately had to correct what he saidTo the gulag with the infidel!
>>62286660Idk, the companies are sound for sure but chinese government fuck with companies or do these things. I lost like $6000 on didi. Lmao. >>62286903It really isn’t a race but yeah watch his interviews. He explains it better.
>>62286463
Bump
>>62286463Alibaba is most undervalued. Did you know that they manufacture their own chips? T-Head semiconductors belongs to Alibaba Group.
>>62286463Chinese regulators have way less tolerance for market concentration and monopoly/oligopoly profits.
>>62286660Corporate valuation is supposed to reflect the present value of all expected future profits. Revenue does not automatically mean profits.The Chinese government has little tolerance for market concentration and the associated monopoly rents, so, if a private Chinese company manages to get into a position to extract monopoly rents, this is unlikely to be sustained. In a perfectly competitive market, profits tend toward zero.
>>62286558Chinese companies do not depend on public capital markets to raise money to the extend US companies do."Losing" a "race" assumes there's a finish line and winner-takes-all in an irreversible manner. However, this is not the case, because there is no real moat in AI. The only moat is the artificial moat caused by the export controls on microchip manufacturing equipment, which is a moat the Chinese are going to bridge, so it is not so much a moat as it is speed bump.
>>62286463CXMT is about to get IPO in the next couple months raising 29.5 billion yuan with 10% total shares, so a marketcap of 295 bn yuan, and it's projected to make 100-200 bn yuan this year. The rule for Chinese opening auction is that you cant make an offer more than 9 times the IPO price, so we are looking at a maximum initial marketcap of 29.5*10*9=2655 bn yuan. Assuming it hits the limit, it would put its forward PE between 13 and 26. IMO it's a very good buy and Im currently looking into how/if I can buy it. Keep in mind all of it's current revenue comes from DDR4/5 alone, HBM is where the money is at and they are about to mass produce it (HBM3 so it's one gen behind micron/sk hynix)BABA is very solid, I see qwen regularly on AI rankings
>>62289048This is what I was thinking. They seem to do everything from cloud, to ai and chip manufacturing. Western competitors sit over 10x val. while only doing 1/3 or 2/3 of their products.
>>62289193>>62289180So what you're saying is that potential government intervention and limits on monopoly power are a major reason Chinese companies can't be valued the same way as their US counterparts. That makes sense.But is the "China discount" just permanent now? At what point does the discount become excessive? GOOGLE + AMZN = 7.5tril, BABA = 300b..
>>62290173Appreciate the tip I will monitor. I didnt know there was a maximum offer price following IPO. The only problem is actually buying these positions. BABA is the easiest as its traded on the NYSE as well, and can also be traded on perp dex etc.
>>62290173I do use Qwen among other LLMs and it’s very solid. I like it a lot, it’s the best Chinese LLM to me (better than DeepSeek, Kimi, MiniMax, Z.ai, etc.) and generally on par with the Western models. However there is no app on iOS, at least in my (EU) country, so I don’t use it as much as I would like. But great product.
>>62286463when's the last time a chinese company invented a useful new technology? Feels like it's been a few thousand years now
>>622909225G cell towers in Europe are mostly Huawei.
