Did the dotcom bubble feel like this?Everyone keep saying we are in a bubble, but to me bubbles are synonymous with incredible economic growth until they pop, everyone and their grandmother is making money until the bubble burst.When I look at the stock market I see the bubble But when I see how many people are unemployed, or laid off, or barely surviving with this huge inflation and energy prices, I just don't see it.I see recession indicators, like how my local contractors are available to work within the month, or how my neighbor's house hasn't sold despite being on the market for a year and being listed cheaper than when he bought it 7 years ago.Everything tells me we're in a recession, and yet, we're also in a bubble?How does that work? If we really are in a bubble, and it burst, how bad is it going to be? Considering it's already pretty fucking bad
>>62291737>dotcom bubbleThis is the Great Depression ser, check calendar years. It's going be so ogre...
The stock market and real economy decoupled many, many years ago. That became pretty obvious to most people during covid when the entire world was shut down for a year while the stock market soared.
most people are poor and don't invest in anything yes
>>62291737K shaped economy
If you think its a bubble take profits and go all in on consumer staples and utilities until it crashes. Or make that big purchase youve been saving for. Know your risk tolerance.
>>62291737Don't treat it as a mathematical equation where you need to plug in the exact same numbers to get the "bubble" as outcome.Every bubble is different/new. If it were the same, it would be too obvious and it wouldn't happen.
>>62291784But then when the burst happen it's going to be absolutely catastrophic isn't it?
>>62291863It's only catastrophic if you aren't invested in the food supply chain.
>>62291737> my neighbor's house hasn't sold despite being on the market for a year and being listed cheaper than when he bought it 7 years ago.Bullshit, unless niggers moved in to the neighborhood or he knocked a wall down and didn't repair it you're full of shit.
I bet this is what the roaring 20s felt like
looking at all the graphs smart crackas anons post here regularly, it's 100% da bubble my niggah. could last another year or 2 tho. i'm going to wait patiently
>>62291737like in the dot com bubble everything is traded on hype and "potential" and the reality is that a lot of companies have to realistic plan to make a profit
>>62291879Nah the 2010s were the roaring 20s of our time. This decade has been the worst since the 70s.
>>62292021But for gold it has been the best decade ever since the roman empire.
Equities markets are just decoupled from the real underlying economy in a way we've never seen before, and maybe it is just a new paradigm. It's not like there hasn't been potential crash catalysts. We've already had 2 under Trump. It simply rebounded. Someone is buying the dip hard and forcing institutions back in.
>>62291737High income are fine. Middle income treading water. Low income taking a hit. That’s what I heard in the news.
>>62291737You must make a distinction between the financial world (what happens on the markets) and the economic world (irl growth or recession, the job market, supply chains, etc.)A bubble happens in the financial realm only, although it can be popped by bad economic news and have bad economic consequencesThe dotcom bubble felt much more exuberant and "positive" than the AI bubble because the worldwide economy was great and the Internet was creating new, exciting economic opportunities; while the current AI bubble happens in a mediocre economy, and mostly powers ugly AI slop + mass layoffs (supposedly because AI replaces entry-level workers, which sounds like a false reason to justify layoffs)In my opinion, what could catalyze a huge stock market downturn is the disruption in the supply chains due to the conflict with Iran, which will affect people (fertilizer shortages, expensive oil) and AI companies (they need energy and helium) alike
>>62291737No this time it is different because AI is truly a new revolution of technology. This is the 3rd industrial revolution after AI we will look back on now like medieval times. Coupled with space travel humanity is going to become extreme wealthy.
>>62292076>Coupled with space travel humanity is going to become extreme wealthy.
>>62292076Buddy, revolutionary technologies are the most likely to cause bubbles. Your's is a shit argument
>>62292076LLMs have been available for 3.5 years nowPlease explain how they revolutionized anything meaningful in the economy since 2022 (don’t just say "productivity gains", explain what these gains are), and how AI companies are going to turn a profit one day
>>62291737The dot com bubble was overvalued companies and earnings that didnt justify valuationThe MAG7 have more then justified their expanding value. Dont cope because you had three years to invest and refused.
>>62291737>Did the dotcom bubble feel like this?Yes, but. The companies driving this parabola actually have products and make money. After this last earnings season, the average forward p/e of s&p companies actually fell from like 11 to 9. There is quote that more money has been lost preparing for drawdowns than has been lost by going through them. Basically, embrace the green dildos, this time is at least somewhat different, don't try to pick winners and losers just indices (leveraged indices if you're degen), and ride this fucking bus until the wheels fall off, because this is the next industrial revolution and this kind of everyone-wins stock bonanza is never going to happen again in your lifetime.
>>62292092He can´t. It´s a paradoxon.
>>62292092Look at the state of LLMs 3.5 years ago vs. today. They basically replaced entry level white collar work positions and more specialized positions have been streamlined.
>>62291953The semiconductor stocks that are booming aren't trading on hype. They have record sales and have customer backlogs through 2027. That isn't hype. They aren't promising vaporware, they are selling their product and fast as they can make it at elevated prices so profits are huge.
>>62291745So we still have 4 years of stupid gains to make kek?
>>62291737>everyone and their grandmother is making money until the bubble burstSorry buddy - like most of us, neither you or your grandmother are a part of it this time around. The wealth does not trickle down>>62295073>They have record sales and have customer backlogs through 2027. That isn't hype.And just who do you think those customers are exactly? It's overhyped memefactories like OpenAI that book all the ram til 2028 for datacenters which may or may not implode part-way into their fulfillment if the hype train doesn't keep rolling.
>>62295152>Sorry buddy - like most of us, neither you or your grandmother are a part of it this time around. The wealth does not trickle downShut the fuck up, retard. My portfolio went up almost 50% in just the last 6 weeks. You are just pissed that you are missing out.
>>62295163Cool, do you think it will go up another 50% in 6 weeks?
>>62295187At this rate, his portfolio will grow 36x in one year, we’re certainly stupid to miss such as opportunity!
>>62295085>So we still have 4 years of stupid gains to make kek?You HAD 4 years of stupid gains to make it. How many more 4 years of stupid gains do you need?
>>62291737i liked a year ago when bears here said it was a bubble.... then it died down a bit with the rise of agentic AI and now bears are back again>i cant use AI>i used the free version 3 years ago and wasnt impressed>my company doesnt use AIlol
>>62291757exactly. market != economy>>62291759OP, listen to this. if you are an investor and browse investing forums daily, it will SEEM that the market is overbought. don't model reality based on /biz/ it's full of hungry investors and can make you feel nervous that too many people are buying tops. the reality is what the poster above mentioned, too poor/scared to invest. I make sure I browse /biz/ daily because it helps with my motivation to save and not spend, but I purposefully remind myself that it isn't reality or the real econ sentiment.
>>62292087just because you arent aware of emerging technologies at your part-time home depot gig doesn't mean they do not exist. there was recently a 30%+ increase in TCP speed by Google (most likely discovered by internal AI), there is pill that is allowing morbidly obese to drop weight instantly cutting blood pressure and stroke risks into fractions. and that is just what we know about. who should be listen to? you, the poor guy who thinks he's clever and has watched the big short a few times or use common sense and see the practical applications of these revolutionary technologies?
>>62291737You can't get a flatbed rental in the midwest for love or money, the backlog is tremendous. People on the coasts are getting raped which is why there's so much terminally online outcry, but economic activity is happening on a mass scale.
>>62295187>>62295209You faggots are so insufferable. We get it, you are pissed that everybody around you is making money while you keep waiting for the crash. Cope.
>>62295209Did you liquidate too early, champ? I thought you were happen with your locked in gains!
>>62291872This is happening in some spots in America, particularly California.
>>62292092Compare the internet of 1990 to today. Now think of what AI will progress like, and what it has progressed like. >Le Will Smith eating spaghetti vs nowIn 20 years people like you will be similar to Paul Krugman who thought the internet would just be a fad. AI is still largely in its infancy in terms of overall utility. It will change things in ways we can’t yet imagine, similar to the internet of the 90’s.
>>62292092>Please explain how they revolutionized anything meaningful in the economy since 2022SWE no longer manually write code >how AI companies are going to turn a profit one daycharge money to use their product
>>62295346I take your post as an admission that AI:>didn’t revolutionize anything meaningful in the economy>has no discernible path to profit>b-but it w-will turn out revolutionary and profitable one day, we can’t yet imagine how (these are your words) but the stars told me it’s gonna happen!!!Based on this, the current valuations appear unjustified.
Sexo
>>62295368Anthropic is on track to be profitable for Q2 of this year. What are you even on?
>>62295384He is coping and reassuring himself that it is just a bubble. Otherwise he would cry himself to sleep knowing he missed out on generational wealth.
>>62295389He probably doesn’t even know how to get in on Anthropic before it IPOs and will be buying baggies.
>>62295384Your opinion on this piece?https://www.wheresyoured.at/anthropics-profitability-swindle/>>62295389>generational wealthNot one single intelligent person has ever used these words desu, it’s like "globohomo" at this point
>>62295424Typical anti-AI article. The company isn’t really do anything shady considering everything mentioned in that article is public knowledge. It also assumes that Colossus 1 and 2 will actually ramp up costs, which I doubt. I think Elon has basically conceded the AI race at this point and is looking to sell shovels rather than mine gold. And yes, a return to not being profitable makes sense when they’re still investing in growth. Amazon did the exact same thing while they built market share.
>>62295346>>62295389>Compare the internet of 1990 to today.What's funny about this assessment is that you compare AI progess to the internet yet somehow skip the part where the whole thing crashed in the early 2000s despite how ubiquitous it ended up being today. Even if AI isn't a fad like the internet, don't you think all the current rapid growth is the result of everyone thinking the same thing and prematurely blowing their wad on something that needs another 10 years or more to mature and meet those expectations? Anthropic could end up being the Ask Jeeves of the ai landscape and you wouldn't even know you're putting your eggs in that basket until it's too late. Yahoo was also big once, and so was MySpace
>>62291737Nearly all of the stock market growth is from AI related tech companies. The economy is very K shaped, it’s always been but getting worse. You have people making obscene amounts of money rn while the majority are struggling to afford life. I work in tech as a generalist SWE and we’re all getting laid off while tech companies are pouring billions into GPUs and data centers while paying insane amounts of money to AI researchers
>>62291737No. Because they replaced pensions with 401K. The government will just keep pumping the stonk market as long as they want to.
>>62292092Some highly standardized software tasks have been completely converted over to AI generation rather than using wagies.One of the middle level managers at WIX just posted about how he fired 1000 "software engineers" who used to build websites for dumbfucks who couldn't do it themselves. Instead of a SWE getting paid $120,000/year to piece together formulaic code over a period of weeks per website, now the AI does it automatically in seconds. His effort-tweet about it said that the payback period for the $80M AI investment was seven months, and that after that it would be free money to the company.As a real software engineer, I am not particularly worried about that, because building a WIX e-commerce website was pretty much bullshit work. Just repeat what other people have done before you, except add different logos and sheeeeeit.Same with a lot of apps. If something is just "display this data within a standard framework" then AI can do it without needing super 1337 coders any more.
>>62291737Somewhere along the line companies discovered that consumers will give you money for a product, but investors will give you money for absolutely nothing, and we solved the problem of overconsumption that those artists were whining about.
>>62295707AI already had a first rollout and subsequent tapering off in the mid-2010s. Deepdream, "everything is dog" all that shit ringing any bells? Though you may have been in first grade in 2015 so I forgive you for not knowing
>>62295325>making moneySo you sold?
>>62296528>I am so old and knowledgeable about this>AI already had a rolloutSonny, i'm old enough to have been conscious before the internet was invented. It took decades from dumb teletype terminals in the 70s to the dotcom bubble and what you're describing are early experiments shoehorned to make your pre-conceived narrative fit. It took 7 years from Deepdream to deformed Will Smith eating spaghetti. It took only 2-3 years from Will Smith spaghetti to ChatGPT and Sora meme videos featuring Michael Jackson robbing Mcdonalds, Sam Altman buying up all the ram in the world and datacenter projects that need their own nuclear reactors to run. And this is not a bubble aand things will continue accelerating at the same pace... how? Are we building the Death Star in 5-10 years?
>>62296083In other words, labor has been utterly devalued in certain sectors while "productivity" can skyrocket. But if productivity is unbelievably efficient to realize, why would there not be a glut of supply as AI Wix Killer races with Wix to the bottom of the e-commerce website game? And why doesn't Super AI Wix Killer Killer take over from there, and so on, until it's effectively free to build a professional e-commerce website (if you can afford the electricity to gen it)? Now all those businesses have devalued their product to nothing, much like Chinese physical component manufacturers are currently doing with their own supply glut. What exactly is the endgame here?
>>62295406care to share for a humble anon
>>62295059Then why do will still take H1Bs if AI is so good
>>62295384That profit was EBITDA, they would not be able to parade this if the company was public.
>>62295435I think you’re paid to post.
>>62297714>are we building the Death StarClose, actually. You think all these datacenters are being built to make better celebrity nudes? Nah, it's a control grid. Palantir's going to use that horsepower to build a complete digital model of the world and everyone in it, so they can autonomously track anyone who acts out of line and if necessary silence, debank or erase them. The upper half of the K is obsessed with how to manage the lower half of the K, and this is what they've come up with.
>>62297841Synthetic futures on Hyperliquid I'm guessing
>>62302336You're not getting my point - the orwellian ai surveillance apparatus you are describing has already been booked, the money to build it has been pledged, line has already gone up based on that (potential) demand. What are we building *after this* so that this rapid growth in the ai sector continues and nvidia stock keeps pumping like a shitcoin the way it has in the past two years?
>>62302529Nothing man. That's the end of the track.
