EcoPetrol is the state owned Colombian oil and energy monopoly that supports the grid for a country of 54 million. It's been held back by a leftist anti oil government the last 4 years but the politics may become far more favorable for the company soon.This weekend the first round of Colombian elections took place and had a suprising result. It was widely expected the leftist Historical Pact candidate Cepeda would get the most votes with the right wing split between outsider radical right Abelardo De La Esperillla and moderate Paloma Valencia. However, Esperilla came in first with 43% to Cepeda with 40% and Valencia trailing far behind with 7%. Since nobody got 50% it will go to a runoff on **June 21st**.Now Esperilla is tipped to win as the Moderate right has endorsed him. I checked polymarket and they have him at 82% as of today. Why this matters is that the Historical Pact has basically made it very hard for EcoPetrol to pursue further oil exploration and has really stymied them.I was listening to an interview 2 weeks ago in which Esperilla was saying he would like to get EcoPetrol's barrels from 700k to 1.3 mil a day and was promoting oil and gas fracking. He has referenced de-regulating oil and energy exploration that will directly benefit EcoPetrol. Esperilla is not from the traditional Colombian conservative elite and is a businessman and lawyer that understands how to make corporations profit.The risk is if Cepeda ends up pulling off an upset the stock is gonna take a shit as it has already been rallying all year up from $10 to $15.50 because of the energy prices skyrocketing globally. This $15 level is where it had been before Historicla Pact won the 2022 election and caused it to tumble below $10. Furthermore this stock was once above $50 in the early 2010s and if Esperilla can secure investment with the US and tailor a pro energy domestic policy it will become a powerhouse and skyrocket.
neat
