The Chinese have over a dozen Falcon 9 clones and 4 Starship clones in development
>>62322047Isn’t this why it’s going public now? They’re going to dump on us.
>>62322047same as is happening to his other piece of trash. they'll always have Twitter tho. Not even the chinks would want to replicate that.
they don't have the raptor engine though, they can build their rockets but will take years to match the cutting edge monster that is the raptor series of engines
>>62322125>but will take yearsand wheres Musk gonna go meantime, Mars?
>>62322114That's what I'm thinking, but I'm also thinking that TSLA stock price has stayed strong despite endless Chinese competition
You're thinking too far ahead. It'll take them 5-10 years to catch up in constellation size to SpaceX.
>>62322119Tesla is trading at $1.5T and it's only down 20% from the top. Your hate for musk has fried your brain
>>62322151he's going to keep launching satellites and dominating global telecommunications, that's his real moat, then he can pivot to moon mining or something else
>>62322125It's only a matter of time, though.What I'm thinking is that, when people see a dozen Chinese companies replicating SpaceX's technology, many investors will realize that the eLawn special sauce might in fact not be as special as they had thought, and that SpaceX's technology advantage was just a case of being early.
>>62322235aren't they hyping SPCX on AI rather than Rockets n sheeeit tho? Not that the long-term outlook for xAI looks any better.
>>62322119>no TwitterSo you don't know about QQ, Weibo, and all of their Twitter clones which continually stuck because of censorship?
>>62322235china can't even replicate jet engines from rolls royce, its not as easy as you think, they then need to stack 30 of them together to match starship, that's a lot of complex plumbing that could go wrong in so many ways
>>62322259Everyone I've talked to is by far most impressed by the self-landing rockets. They attribute it to unique genius that makes Einstein seem mediocre in comparison. Bezos' rocket exploding reinforced this view.
>>62322328bezos just got his first lesson in trying to compete with spacex
>>62322151no
>>62322295I'm by no means an expert on this matter, but I think your information on Chinese tech might be about 25 years out of date. The Chinese long ago moved on from the Rolls Royce Spey to better, independently developed engines.Replicating Starship is obviously a big engineering challenge, but my point is that, when the Chinese start landing rockets, investors are going to realize that the Chinese will be able to follow SpaceX's path; it's just a matter of time.
>>62322188Does Starlink really have much of a moat? China's Qianfan is probably going to attain initial operating capability in 2027. It won't be able to serve as many customers as Starlink, but it will be an alternative, and it's only going to keep growing. If China replicates Falcon 9 several times over, investors will realize that China's plan to launch 28,000 telecommunications satellites is achievable, and that eventually the space telecommunications market might become saturated several times over.
>>62322411NO!!!!! The Chinese don't care and SpaceX really doesn't care. They will land the rockets and nothing will happen. NOTHING! You think everyone using the SpaceX rockets will just jump ship and partner up with China? Are you fucking retarded? Think about all the military applications that go through SpaceX. Think about all the payloads.This retarded notion that if China makes a successful copy, everyone will jump ship. NO!! China is an adversarial country. No smart company is going to grant China a multi-billion payload contract when SpaceX has a proven track record.
>>62322411and then what, take over the american market like byd has done with tesla?
>>62322177Yeah, but stocks are supposed to be forward-looking, so when investors realize it's going to happen, it should be immediately reflected in the stock price
>>62322459>take over the american market like byd has done with tesla?see >>62322367Its fake sales as per usual. How are you still dumb?
>>62322459Qianfan will surely be banned in the American market, like BYD, but it will compete with Starlink in much of the rest of the world.
>>62322455Government payloads are only a small fraction of SpaceX's revenue. Starlink is the cash cow, and the US can't ban Chinese Starlink competitors outside the US.
>>62322459100% tariffs is just shouting at the tide to retreat. At some point, even Burger consoomers begin noticing everyone else in the fucking world is paying 50% less for (arguably) better cars. And they start demanding to know why.
>>62322500>Starlink is the cash cowstarlink is the military conttract
>>62322485if they can do it at scale and cheaply sell it, good for them, but i don't think china will be able to subsidize this for any length of time since europe is also calling them out for what they are doing with evs and europe is a major customer compared to the rest of the third world, china will have to choose btn self sufficiency of everything and dominating a few select industries
>>62322515Starshield is the military-oriented product
>>62322500>Starlink is the cash cowwhile I consider Starlink perhaps one of Musk less obviously complete junk enterprises, its still just an argument against gravity.and gravity (invariably) wins.
>>62322047The US and the rest of the world will welcome Chinese space companies obviously. Obviously the Ubited States will tell musk to fuck off and build a Chinese headquarters in the United States and give China billions to run our space programs. Fuck you think will happen OP?
>>62322545The car industry is an important employer in Europe, whereas the space communications industry is not. I don't see why Europe wouldn't want maximum competition in space communications in order to drive the price as far down as possible.The Chinese don't need to subsidize anything to offer service to Europe or any other region. Once the satellites are in orbit, the marginal cost of extending coverage to a new region is essentially zero.>china will have to choose btn self sufficiency of everything and dominating a few select industriesThis isn't really related to the thread topic, but it is an interesting thing to discuss. China has more people than North America, Europe and Japan combined, so I don't see why they need to specialize on a few select industries.
>>62322558I think Chinese Starlink competitors will be banned in the US market but not in other markets
>>62322590there are communication companies in europe, no, china will need to compete with them too, china produces fewers ev vehicle than toyota exported cars, to keep this running, the govt is running massive subsidies because demand isn't that high, especially for their high end evs, europe and america have imposed tarrifs on these cars and they are not likely to relent, same thing will happen with telecommunications, isn't nokia a telecommunication company nowadays?
another day, another lieI'm not certain they won't postpone SPCX takeoff. Conditions do not look promising and the S&P telling them to fuck off and abide the fucking rules has to be a blow.
>>62322644Nokia and Ericsson are telecommunications equipment providers. They are not service providers.Space communications are supposed to provide coverage where terrestrial networks are underdeveloped or unable to fill demand, such as in remote regions or on aircraft, not compete directly with terrestrial communications. Terrestrial communications are much more capable, wherever proper terrestrial infrastructure investments have been made.
>>62322696on aircrafts, yes starlink is now on aircrafts, you think airbus will allow china on their aircraft after what they are trying to do with their aircraft manufacturing companies trying to replace them, i think europe has pretty much made its stance with china, if china wants to dominate these technologies, it will have to sell to india, south america and africa, but make products that these countries can buy cheaply, and i don't think it will be able to scale
>>62322747As mentioned, space communications is not a major employer in Europe.I think Airbus will offer whatever the customer wants, and I think operators will want as many communications providers as possible in order to increase competition and drive down costs. If an antenna for a communications provider the operator wants does not come preinstalled on an Airbus aircraft, the operator can just retrofit the aircraft.
>>62322119Tesla's stock price has been remarkably resilient in the face of increasing competition, and that's why it's by no means obvious what will happen to SpaceX's stock price
>>62322792europe's networks will also be subsidised to compete with china, europe is also pretty well connected compared to the third world, and internet is pretty cheap nowadays, this is a hard sell
>>62322047The US space program is a weapon. There will be no shortage of funding. Maybe they will be forced to merge with each other if things get real bad but they wont go away.
