why would i panic when i'm not holding any crapto?
I hold the real deal not the proxy.
My fiat bags are ready to slurp the $20k bottom in October
/biz/ is smart money and rotated to semi-conductors and data centers.
>>62405528I was tempted to buy STRC a month ago lmao. Dodged a bullet.
I'm getting greedy here.If you cut through the noise, their balance sheet is extremely strong. Even if BTC drops quite a bit further.There are also contradictory fears at play here. The main fear is that Strategy will start selling huge amounts of BTC into a massive downward spiral to serve the dividends. But if that is the case, the dividend is safe, and thus STRC not falling to $0, right? On the other hand, if they rugpull STRC, "thanks for the money we're suspending the dividend forever", then the market doesn't have that sell pressure.The dividends and other debt obligations are something like 2-3b per year, and the reality is that the market has enough liquidity to pull that type of money and top up the cash reserve in a week of selling. Sure, there will be panic after he announces what he did, but any time they do this it will give them another year of runway to sit out the bear market.If the bear market takes more than 2 or 3 years the BTC thesis is probably broken, but the fundamental treasury company assumption is that BTC will do OK in the future. Don't touch them if you think BTC will fail completely.
>>62405528how is this similar to LUNA? mstr can stomach a few years of low price bitcoin without major issues.>>62406041why would they need to sell anything? The only real negative thesis is that bitcoin is dead. and i don't think so but it could be yeah
>>62406363>why would they need to sell anything?They have to pay dividends and convertible debt.Per their website they have ~1.7b in annual dividend obligations now. They'll have to raise them for the $100 target, but they can do this slowly, so it may not change much.They have a total of 6.7b in outstanding convertible debt, which assuming it doesn't hit the conversion price due to a terrible bear market, will mature as follows:1b on Sep 15 20272b on Mar 1 20281.5b on Jun 1 20281.4b on Sep 15 20280.8b on Jun 15 2029Their current cash reserve covers the dividend for nearly one year. So the total open obligations for the next years will be:2026: $0, already covered by the reserve2027: 0.85b div + 1b debt = ~1.85b2028: 1.7b div + 4.9b debt = 6.6b2029: 1.7b div + 0.8b debt = 2.5btotal = 10.9bIf we're still in bear market in early 2027, they might bite the bullet and sell 2-3b worth of BTC in a single week, causing panic but getting runway to early 2028.If we're still in a bear market in early 2028, they might do another 2-3b BTC sale.If we're still in a bear market in early 2029, they might do another 2-3b BTC sale.Given that they pulled $300m from MSTR dilution just last week, it seems highly likely that they can pull at least 2-3b from dilution within the next 3 years even if the market sucks.Using very conservative assumptions this would yield 8-12b cash to cover 11b in obligations.They currently hold 50b worth of BTC. You can cut the current price in half and they can still stomach 3 years of bear market with plenty BTC left.
>>62405650People were dumping their entire pensions into that garbage because the $100 peg was "so safe", lmao
>>62406041I think they'll do what you're saying. Maybe sell off between $5-10B worth in one go to secure dividend funding and announce a lock-up on the remaining Bitcoin with a set number of years to try to reduce panic selling once it becomes public
>>62406041>>62406565Saylor is a retard and his ponzi is holding crypto back. Yes likely he is fine and it will collapse only 2029 but this is so retarded
>>6240636310x worse, Luna didn't cause a massive selloff of BTC. The problem with impacting the main asset of a whole market is that it will spread to the market as whole. Luna already showed this in a smaller proportion. Expect many protocols to depeg and break.
>>62406601Holding crypto back from what?
>>62406662From number going up
>>62406565He might as well dillute his shares to a single digit, what will happen is literally a death spiral, the market will stay away from MSTR and creditors might as well stop lending him money at low interest due to either a drop in his company rating and general macroeconomic data (rate hikes).Also, the problem with STRC depegging and not being able to get back to $100 is that the interest he will be paying will start to exponentially rise. The basis was 11.5% apy, right now it's sitting at 14%. Those 3.5% is a big difference in his balance sheet, if STRC reaches $60, the interest is going to reach 19%, $50 is 23%. So you see where this leads to? If at some point it get worringly at $20, you are talking about 57.5% of annual, semi-monthly dividends to distribute. If he has cash for 2 years as of today, that means he would have left only a fourth of that amount, so 6 months AND then the obligations from his debts.Anything that yields a really high disproportionate return relative to the whole market is really looked frowned upon by the market and investors, this is literally a ponzi and a death spiral. This could ultimately lead him to sell a portion of BTC still this year, and that could impact the market pretty badly, for instance, just see how the market reacts to any news of Bitcoin from MtGox that is retrieved and sent to exchanges., and that's a fraction of what Saylor has.
>>62406739Typical bogus assumptions, like nearly every anti-Strategy post.The STR products are very defensive. The dividend is voluntary. They can and will defend it, failing to do so would be a PR nightmare, but they are not legally obligated to run their entire company and the entire BTC market into the ground to defend it.If it falls to $20, they can buy back that debt at a 80% discount and retire the dividend. That's a great deal.Per the official prospectus of this product they also have an option to buy it back at par ($100), so there is no requirement to pay absurdly high dividends eternally if it turns out that this isn't working.Outside of this option they can also start buybacks below par to retire that debt at a discount.The basic sanity check you need is this:BTC holdings: 50bDebt (STR* + convertible): 22bThe convertible debt will take 3 years and is only 6.7b. The STR debt is designed to be spaced out over many more years, and they can suspend it as they see fit.If BTC gets cut in half or worse and goes into a 10 year bear market, this thing isn't going to work out, but in that case who even cares for any treasury company anyway? We will have moved on to other things.
>>62405528I lost all my money longing the way down already
>>62406565that's good to know but dividends are optional. If things are really bad they can just not pay them rather than dump a lot of btc.The fact that they have enough cash for 1 year of dividend is good.>>62406637Luna was worse. it was a stable coin pegged to a shitcoin. This isn't really the same thing. People can dump all their mstr and it goes to 0$ and btc will keep its value. The opposite isn't true however. Unless i'm missing something?>>62406739Wait, so strc is actually pegged to 100$ value$? Yeah ok then maybe you have a point. all of this confusing, i looked it up and it says STRC is a preferrential share? these holders come first for dividends. You're fudding me out of buying mstr below 50$ as i planned
>>62405528gonna buy strc at $10 and make 115% a year
>>62406788> bogusStop shitting the board with your claude slop posts. Fag.
>>62406637>We're now in the "total cataclysm imminent" phase of the bear marketHoly shit I'm buying
>>62406801He's bullshitting. If the price of STRC is $100 they're paying $11.50/share/year. If the price is $50 they're still paying $11.50/share/year. Unless they crank up dividends to try to maintain $100/share, but they're not obligated to, and it makes way more sense to just buyback shares at a discount, retire that obligation, wait for Bitcoin to drag itself along, and then start selling STRC at $100 again.
>>62406848Claude is amazing, thank you for the compliment. My posts are completely handwritten. English isn't even my native language. I guess the coolest high schoolers nowadays don't say "bogus" and will remember this in the future.I only clarified the meaning of the "Earliest Call Date" on https://www.strategy.com/credit using AI (not Claude).>>62406788>Wait, so strc is actually pegged to 100$ value$?STRC is not pegged. It has a $100 target price controlled by the dividend. There's a set of rules to respond to prices too far below $100 by raising the dividend incrementally, thereby hopefully raising it to par eventually.What naysayers also miss is that every $100 share was sold for the promise to pay $11.5 per year. If you want your $100 back, you have to sell into the open market. This is why the BTC bought using STR gives them a long runway.As stated above, if the whole thing doesn't work out, they have the right to buy all of it back at $100.
>>62405528saylorcoin is fucked till hes out
>>62406788You got a point. He can rebuy but the dividends will accrue with interest, he will need to pay someday.His bitcoin holdings are 50b now, at the money, we are expecting bitcoin to drop at least 30% further and hit 40k, so that will get closer and closer to his debt. From experience and seeing what normies are saying, they are also claiming 40k so I expect going even lower.>>62406801I don't want to fud I want to buy MSTR to have an extra exposure, it's interesting to buy at really low prices. He might not go bankrupt, but I would pay attention to his company until this bear ends.
>>62406801See >>62406897 (wrongly replied to myself).Also, the real risks are that dividend payments from STR products can be suspended as they see fit, and there is no requirement to protect the principal at any cost.This is why the death spiral fantasies of Strategy running itself and BTC into the ground are unrealistic. They don't have to do this, so they won't.However, rugpulling STR products, which they could do in theory, would hurt their credit line, stock price, etc. If you check the STRC holders and say Yahoo Finance you'll see that BlackRock, VanEck and Fidelity ETFs put hundreds of millions into this. Strategy is unlikely to rugpull them.Realistically they can easily sit out a bear market for multiple years, they'll easily be able to pay the dividends and make some effort to get back to $100 par, but you can't depend on this especially in the near term.
Where Saylor get the money? There must be some glitch.. he keep buying at loss and pay High interest but he don't produce nothing useful. That's like a life cheat code, the ultimate Ponzi materialization
>>62406959he just needs to increase the strc yield to 35%
>>62406934>His bitcoin holdings are 50b now, at the money, we are expecting bitcoin to drop at least 30% further and hit 40k, so that will get closer and closer to his debt. From experience and seeing what normies are saying, they are also claiming 40k so I expect going even lower.The price of STRC is controlled using the open market.Strategy sold each STRC for $100 and bought $100 worth of BTC at (I think) an average of something like $75k.Strategy committed to paying $11.5 per share per year (likely going up a bit in the future to try and restore the par value).If they are able to sell the BTC they purchased using the $100 at their purchase price, they have 9 years of dividend coverage just from selling the BTC bought using STRC.If the BTC they purchased falls 50% when they sell, they still have 4.5 years of dividend coverage from selling that BTC alone - ignoring all of their other holdings, ignoring common stock dilution, and ignoring other credit market options.Notably, Strategy is not required to buy back any shares and give you back the $100 directly. If you want your $100 back, you have to sell into the open market. At this time only dividend, which they did commit to paying (but which they can suspend at any time) is used to try and keep the shares at $100. I think in the future they are likely to buy back to stabilize the price, but there is no requirement to death-spiral into anything.
>>62406974Looks like a fraud to me
Bitcoin is getting Stretched!
I have a feeling MSTR is in the same situation that FTX was. Their books are all good, they have strong investments, but they have just enough weird shit going on that they can't survive a bank run in the middle of a bear market.
>>62406959Yes. Thats the problem. This retard thought everyone would switch to Bitcoin so it would be fine but it doesnt look like it.
>>62407588>Their books are all goodFTX's books weren't all good. They had a giant hole because the weasel thought stoplosses were for pussies, so Alameda lost billions, and SBF funneled customers money from FTX to Alameda to try to recover the losses
>>62407785what i mean is, FTX would have been fine/profitable in a normal bull or bear market. Their mistake was having enough risk that they were unable to survive a bear market + black swan
>>62407826nah they were misusing customer deposits. The slightest hint of withdrawal issues would have and did cause them to collapse
>>62407826>they would have been fine if the fraud hadn't come to lightYeah, I mean... So would Bernie Madoff
>>62405528>and literally in a Lunahello saar
>>62407826strategy is orders of magnitude better at risk management than FTX. Look at their debt ratio
>>62408624There's also a difference between running a private company out of the Bahamas and a multi-billion public company in the US.For Strategy the main question is whether they hold the claimed coins, and for this not to be the case requires an unlikely combination of a accounting/finance/controlling scam with the execs and/or auditor and/or custodians looking the other way.Things like the Enron scam can happen, but this was a rare event which wiped out the auditor that colluded with them and turned the Big 5 into the Big 4 of accounting.Arkham supposedly tracked down some of their holdings as well.
>>62406974Anything above 20% would make it pointless to even sell strc and it would be easier if they rebuy it back.
>>62406788Now that I think about it, they are seriously incentivised to stop increasing the dividend and to just keep it at that level while waiting for people to sell at a large loss so they can buy back at a discount.
>>62405528100%.
>>62409206>>62409206An incentive does exist, but there's also an incentive to watch out for those shareholders so they are able to sell more shares in the future. Looking at it as an incentive frames it, as usual, as a "Strategy trying to rip everyone off" thing. If you were to give them the benefit of of the doubt the main take-away might just be that it's not the end of the world.The current sentiment is that everything is a collapse scenario. But STRC trading at a discount is not a collapse because it might enable them to buy back debt cheaply. They recently also bought back 1.5b in convertible notes for 1.3b from their cash reserve because those notes had a 0% coupon and the conversion became unrealistic, so holders of those notes agreed to sell them back at the discount. That's where the whole "STRC depegging" thing really kicked off because they ate into the cash reserve, but there are many things to like about reducing debt and doing so at a discount.Another way to look at STRC outside of the endless "ponzi" accusations is they they bet on dollar depreciation over the long term here (not an unreasonable bet in general):- They collect $100 for the promise to pay back $11.5 per year, giving them 9 years of runway.- These $100 are used to buy BTC.- If BTC goes up (preferably sooner than later) in the next 9 yearsThere are many scenarios where they can make out like bandits without ripping anyone off. How about:- There's a 2y bear market where they pay $23 for every $100 share in dividends- Trust is never fully restored, there are no new buyers- BTC eventually goes up again and doubles back to its ATH- They sell half of the STRC-financed BTC, pay back STRC fully, and pocket the difference minus paid dividends (23%)Everyone got paid in dividends and received the principal back, and Strategy still made a profit for the company.
>>62405528Saylor promoted $STR to risk-averse retirees by assuring them that all the volatility had been stripped out. STRC is down over 5% today, more than 17% below what many retirees paid last month. Almost two years of dividends gone. @Saylor clearly made material misrepresentations.It's true that I never bought into the Bitcoin narrative, but I always respected the views of those who disagreed with me and their right to express their opinions. But I drew a line with @Saylor defrauding investors with his $STRC Ponzi scheme and those who covered for him.So far the low on $STRC is $80. That's a 20% drop in an investment @Saylor promoted as safe, with near-zero volatility. At that price, the current yield for new buyers is 14.4%. Clearly, investors don't believe the dividend is sustainable and expect it to be reduced or suspended.
