Oil is an easy long here. Price has fallen to almost pre-war levels, for literally no reason because the strait is still largely closed and reserves are still being drained at unprecedented rates. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve in the US has lost 20% of its oil, nearly 100 million barrels, in just two months, and it's not slowing down. Even if the strait somehow were to open immediately and fully, production and transport will take months or even years to normalize. We should be rationing but the government is too scared to do so, they must keep up appearances. This is the recipe for an enormous squeeze.
I need 3500 so fucking badly my life is awful and I want to give up.Wouldn't even get to enjoy it but literally what I need or life is going to fucking eat me alive more than it already has.
>>62407727You’re poor.
>>62407877Yeah I know.
>>62407727>>62407949Kys you stupid begger >>62407877Basedo ik from Argentina my family struggles a lot but I hate poors
>>62407558I've been getting decent returns from investing in Caterpillar Inc, so I think I'll ride that out.
>>62407971.... yeah I love being told to kill myself from some faggot from argentina is all of 4chan brown now?
>>62407558You should stop getting your news from turd worlders.
>giga crowded normal fag takeWe are entering oversupply
>>62407558They can slow panic for another 2-3 weeks but its already showing up in every other asset class. The cure to high prices is high prices, the cure to low prices is low prices. This is the only real golden rule for me anymore when it comes to commodities. If prices are held artificially lower to say spare the bond market briefly then the reaction to mean is all the more violent. Always invert, and the problem is clear as day.
>>62407558You didn't hear? Trump said the strait is open
>>62407558I'm long oil but some bearish arguments are that Venezuela and Iran are now no longer sanctioned, at least 60 days for Iran. China still on a buyers strike, unknown when they'll start buying. Tankers were/are getting through with the transponders turned off. Hits on Russian refineries might make Russia sell it's surplus putting downward pressure on the price.
>>62409516>unknown when they'll start buyingWhere do you think all those Iranian tankers are going?
>>62407558>As of the week ending June 19, 2026, the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) holds 331.19 million barrels of crude oil, putting it at its lowest level in over four decades>The physical safety threshold where the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) caverns face severe structural risk and potential collapse is estimated to be between 150 and 160 million barrels.>243 to 245 Million Barrels (The Policy Floor): The absolute operational limit currently committed under recent strategic drawdowns. Going past this threshold enters unchartered territory for cavern physics>150 to 160 Million Barrels (The Physical Collapse Threshold): This is the physical "cushion" line analyzed by institutions like JPMorgan. Dropping below this point leaves the caverns without the internal fluid pressure needed to counteract the immense weight of the surrounding salt domes, risking catastrophic collapse.>While the physical collapse line is roughly 171 million barrels away, the U.S. will likely stop drawing oil well before then. Dropping below 300 million barrels starves the system of hydrostatic pressure. This slows maximum emergency pumping rates by up to 30%, which mathematically cripples the reserve's usefulness during a crisis long before a cavern physically implodes.
>>62407558>The Strategic Petroleum Reserve in the US has lost 20% of its oil, nearly 100 million barrels, in just two months, and it's not slowing down. Even if the strait somehow were to open immediately and fully, production and transport will take months or even years to normalize. We should be rationingThe US is the world's largest oil and natural gas producer.We're not going to "run out" of either, even if it becomes more expensive.>but a lot of what's refined here is actually imported--yeah, from Canada, Mexico, and now Venezuela.And if prices go up enough, dormant shale basin sources (which got wiped out during COVID) will be developed again.>but investors will be to skittish to reinvest in shale players given much money they lost--Do you not understand energy investors?
>>62409539https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=727&t=6
>>62409543>US energy imports.
