Excess Cape Yield (ECY) is the inverted CAPE minus the TIPS yield. It means there is zero risk premium left in the S&P 500 compared to bonds. Yes, even TIPS are a better value. Hasn't been negative since 2000.
Whut dat mean?
>>62558214Lol this indicator is based on numbers before LLMs even existed. Completely useless.
Bonds having "better" value implies a non chance at state failure. The chance at state failure is not non-zero anymore, its extremely elevated
>>62558214Why in the ever loving fuck would you hold bonds when you could just hold ownership in companies that will survive countries going tits up because they can just hop the border to a thriving country.
>>62559141Because companies have a 10 year expected return of 2.409%, while TIPS have a 10 year real return of 2.447%.
>>62559141And what country is that supposed to be? There is not a single territory on this planet whose governance organizations aren't on the verge of collapse, whose actors aren't mainly preoccupied with looting and attempting to "fight" system internal opposition when the system external opposition is growing like mold over them
