But which one?> Unbreakable Rule 1: Breaking out from the 1D 200sma after a bear market starts the next bull run> Unbreakable Rule 2: The 4 year cycle. If this is the start of the next bullrun, that means the bottom was 58k two months ago. And that would mean that the bear market was only 6 months long, when it was supposed to be about 12.These rules are incompatible at such an early month, so one of them is failing right now. We are in uncharted waters.NOTESLast cycle we saw another 'unbreakable' rule break: the bear market crashing below the weekly 200sma.I think the 1D 200sma is the "weaker" rule, and more likely to break.The 1D 200sma breakout, if we don't crash, leads to a golden cross about a month later. I can ignore the 1D 200sma but I would not fuck with the golden cross.FRONTRUNNINGEveryone is now aware of the 4 year cycle, and trading accordingly. This causes 'frontrunning', which accelerates and potentially breaks the cycle.But we have seen this once before. In early 2024 everyone tried to frontrun the bull market, which resulted in BTC passing the previous ATH way too early. People were calling for an immediate bull market peak and saying that the 4 year cycle was broken. But the 4 year cycle was stronger than the masses. BTC crabbed for an entire year, resetting the schedule of the cycle back to normal.I think it's likely we see the same thing happen here, and we crab/dump into octoBEAR as originally planned. But if we can hold these prices until a golden cross happens, I'd bet on that most of all.
>>62614656>And that would mean that the bear market was only 6 months long, when it was supposed to be about 12.Why is it "supposed" to be 12 already ? I unironically never understood this. I mean, it's not like there was 15 bullrun before in the past. There were only three. The first one doesn't even really counts. How can anyone makes statistics with only two occurences ? From a statistical point of view it's a nonsense
>>62614665correct, it is a low sample size. but it's all we have so it carries weight until proven wrong
My reasoning is the last cycle top was muted, so this cycle bottom will be as well.The next top will probably also be lacklustre. Money from stocks will likely be coming back to Crypto. If we get another run i'll likely be jumping off the train ride a few stations early and unloading some luggage along the way. I no longer need too much to make it and be set now.We might have another drop if war escalates or somethin major breaks again. People love a good reason to dump hard.I'm definitely not trading or swinging to pick a bottom or top, too much risk in that for me..t 2013 btc baggie, ex emunie baggie and 2018 link baggie
56k was the bottom sir you missed the train.
>>62614656>6 monthsOctober 6th to July 1st is nearly 9 months
>>62614656We still crabbin' brother
>>62614656>200d sma>4 year cycleThis is astrology with extra steps anonPls get help
>>62614656>My tea leaves saysNumber go up or down, and it just so happens to be going up this isn't anything esoteric.
>>62614832The sea be good
>>62614656>applying "rules" to an asset that is the transmutation of energy into value and basically alchemynot gonna make it
>>62614656>Makes up unbreakable rules>Rules get broken because they were made up>Surprise Pikachu face
>>62614665>>62614847>>62614848>>62614868>>62614895bis was much better when we had schizos.
Imagine thinking your little daily candles carry weight in 2026.BlackRock’s Aladdin AI is literally frontrunning the entire global retail cycle using predictive quantum simulations. They knew you tards would expect "octoBEAR" so they forced the breakout early to trap the institutional shorts.The 4-year cycle was deleted the second the ETFs went live. You are trading against a sentient military-grade algorithm while drawing astrology triangles on TradingView. It’s over for cycle-cels.
>>62614971>predictive quantum simulations
>>62614986Laugh all you want, you absolute meat-puppet. You think that reaction GIF is organic? It’s literally a standard cognitive dissonance response hardcoded into your brain by years of reading corporate media.The Vanguard group literally patented the sentiment-analysis algorithm that triggers these early breakouts. They aren't trying to hide the quantum ledger anymore.The 200sma is just the frequency at which the central bank servers ping the retail order books.
>>62614656this time it's different
>>62614986Silence caveman.
>>62614774If 58k was the bottom then a 220k top in 2029 will barely be a 4X.
It clearly shows that this is just a bull fakeout trap. The bottom is far from in. Dont even invest a dime until Bitcorn is at least 30k at the highest and probably much much lower.
>>62614656>>62614665>>62614813bear market started january 2025 or july 2025 retards
I have been saying this for the past 4 weeks: if it bottomed in july, the 12 month bottom pattern is technically not broken. Institutions and tradfi whales (who now have easy access to Bitcoin through ETFs) largely determine tops and bottoms by looking at candle closes. Bitcoin had its peak monthly candle close in july 2025, so a bottom in july 2026 would still (technically) keep the 12-month-after-the-top pattern intact. Most people will only apply this logic when hindsight is 20/20, but tradfi decided to frontrun the bottom on a technicality
>>62614656bear market started in October.
>>62615151A bear market starts ON THE SAME DAY AS THE TOP because thats the moment the price goes fucking down you fucking dumb retards holy shit
>>62614971My scyass muhfucka leddit!
>>62614656Thanks for the high-effort thread
>>62614665People have a strong prior probability/belief that bitcoin price strongly holds to a cyclical pattern because its supply follows a predictable pattern
>>62615155Yeah and the top was October 7 retard
>>626146561. It's a rigged market and your ta means fuck all 2. The people rigging the market are not sharing their plans with anyone like some kind of TV villain monologuing to the hero.
>>62615000You trashed him hard, as if he was a worthless pile of shitmeat.
>>62615556The Vanguard sentiment-analysis engine didn't just target him - it logged every engagement response in this very thread to calibrate the behavioral friction parameters for the upcoming US session. Every time a retail account flags an interaction as "based" or "shredded," the central bank liquidity nodes adjust the automated order flow by 0.003% to optimize short-squeeze margins.You think you are participating in a organic imageboard culture, but you are actively training the military-grade neural nets that frontrun your entire 10-year cycle. Your applause has already been monetized. Thanks for the behavioral data.
>>62615852Fuck off, Claude
>>62615474Cycles should weaken according to supply logic because the halving gets weaker every time
One more thought on Rule 2: if 58k was the bottom, that’s a bear market drop of only 50%. We were “supposed” to drop by about 75%. So the four year cycle may be breaking in both time and price, X and Y axes.
>>62617013more like some sort of event will drive the price to 50k that no one is expecting.
clarity act will fail again, just watch and learnbitfuck to $30k
>>62617042this
>>62615468Lma0
>>62617042would love this since im still cash heavy but it seems impossible. i thought max pain would be 68k to 55k. turns out max pain is forcing everyone to buy above 75k
>>62614971>You are trading against a sentient military-grade algorithm while drawing astrology triangles on TradingView.>You think that reaction GIF is organic? It’s literally a standard cognitive dissonance response hardcoded into your brain by years of reading corporate media.The Vanguard group literally patented the sentiment-analysis algorithm that triggers these early breakouts. Fuck off Claude
>>62614656you are retarded
>>62614656This is the reason i haven't accumulated. I only have low 5 figures i could throw into crypto so i have to maximise my gains by getting the timing right. Btc will likely at least do a 2x this cycle, but thats still not enough to do anything for me but a x4 from what i was banking on the new floor to be sub 50k would be enough for a house downpayment which i would seriously consider sacrificing future making it money so that my kids have a better childhood. This shit sucks if i fomo in now i could likely get enough for a house next cycle, but all historical data says btc should be dumping at this timeframe and if thats correct i could get to my goal by the end of the new ath
>>62618224Why not both?
>>62614971You''re a streetshitter jeet and blackcock's aladdin genie magic AI is another indian made mass of a turd.The very reason this site's been disgusting to even visit is because of you cowshit eating brown little pieces of garbages and the fact I can't region block you because it would nuke visitor numbers down to me and 3 other miserable fucks that can't let go of the good (never was but least you jeet trash weren't present) old days
>>62618306>I only have low 5 figures i could throw into crypto so i have to maximise my gains by getting the timing right.People like you are why trading firms make a reliable profit
>>62614656there are no immutable rules, economic 'rules' are coarse grained at best and subject to drift
>>62618316I doubt it im too much of a pussy to ever sell ive been in nearly a decade and the only time i took profits was uncesussfully trying to swing doge 5 years ago. Explain yourself brainlet how does someone being stibborn about buying until an established floor is settled make a reliable profit?
>>62618430u mad
>>62614656>if if if just flip a coin. pigeons and rats trade smarter than you.
The 12 month bear argument is way weaker. Crypto has been in a bear market since Jan 2025. Look at the Others chart: it peaked December 2024 when every other cycle it peaked at the same time as bitcoin. Last cycle it peaked 10 months earlier. That's not a coincidence
>>62617042doesnt matter, ctfc is going to implement it anyway
>>62615474The 4 year cycle was caused by the halving of supply rewards. The entrance of ETF's etc allowed that to be mitigated through futures trading. It's no longer relevant.
>>62614656The 2021 bull run was supposed to extend to December, but it was finished by summer.
mfw idiots think a retrace is a bullrunmfw i have no face
>>62618662>if you just exclude the top10, the most important cryptos, then it peaked in januaryall that chart shows is we never had a proper "alt season" which is totally reasonable considering alts are complete dogshit and the market is catching onto that fact
>>62619445>t. iq 100-110
>>62614656Link pumped against the market, so Bitcoin had to do something.Apparently the suppressors were no longer willing to dump Bitcoin anymore, so they pumped it instead.This exact same thing happened in October 2023.
>they felt for the bulltrappathetic goyim
>>62618756CME launched Bitcoin futures for tradfi in 2017. The only thing the ETFs did was blunt volatility in both directions. You dont know what you're talking about
>>62619525>they felt for the bulltrapthis
>>62619525>>62619548These two retards don't know what a bull trap is
>>62619564>sidelined goy>fake pump aka bulltrap>oh no, better buy now before we go back to 100K>dump
>>62619583Bull traps happen at the top.This was a literal bear trap.>Price broke to a new recent low>Bears pile on hoping for a new low>Price reverses to the upside extremely quicklyBear trap. Literally the textbook example of a bear trap.Both of the recent ATHs at 60k and 120k were bull traps. The price trends up, breaks the ATH, then quickly reverses back down, trapping bulls in a really bad trade.Which is the opposite of what happened this time. Retard bears were shorting the 60k range.Bear trap, bears lost. The bulls won.I swear /biz/ doesn't know the first thing about the terms they use.
>>62619603bears were sidelined, not shortonly retards use leverage
>>62618662Dead market, all greatest fools are in or looking for an exit. Crapto is worthless, just another part of a ponzi that run out of story, let alone usecases and demand
>>62614656There are no rules. The market is made up. Pretty much none of this shit is used for anything tangible.
