>US30T already above 5.2% despite the billions injected for long end buybacks.
>>62645765I am too dumb to know what that means
>billionsThat’s like 5 bonds it’s literally nothing. I’m also not sure the point of trying to psyop the bond market, on net they are way more sophisticated than retail equities and aren’t going to care about nonsense symbolism
>>62645775in the usa, 30 year treasury rates have risen above 5.2%. bessent (pic related) has been trying to drive rates down deliberately but this has failed. rising treasury are an honest indicator that the united states can no longer kick the can down the road to pay for boomer communism and fake jobs by printing money without destroying the united states dollar and collapsing the economy, which should have have happened a long time ago. this means the united states must now pay the piper hy dramatically reducing the size and scope of the government, implement austerity by stopping social security snd medicare payments, exterminating minorities and forcing women back in to domestic servitude and a lifetime of beatings and impregnations.
>>62645765He has a 1 trillion dollar bazooka and a military intervention
>>62645809>>rising treasury>>have havethese typos brought to you by the technologically inferior piece of shit that is the iPhone 16 Pro Max and its abominable operating system. the weet must be allowed to fail because this is the best they can do in 2026
And people still think Warsh will hike rates. This nigger will print money and they will do yield curve control.
>>62645837>the weet
>>62645846yeah that's what we should start calling this shithole. the weet. until women are having babies every year of their life and using smartphones doesn't physically hurt, this place is the weet.
>>62645765this garbage have negative value literally
>>62645775If you are American that means your fake debt fueled economy is dying right now.
>>62645809>this means the united states must now pay the piper hy dramatically reducing the size and scope of the government, implement austerity by stopping social security snd medicare payments, exterminating minorities and forcing women back in to domestic servitude and a lifetime of beatings and impregnations.This is too late for that. The last window for reforms was 2008-2012.
Bullish for EVROPA
>>62646041That would have made Obama look bad therefor it’s only logical we suicide instead
Fuck the 30 I want the 10Y to assfuck all these real estate "investors".
>>62645809>dramatically reducing the size and scope of the governmentin your FUCKING DREAMS bro
>>62645809this sounds like a good thing...
takes time for it to cycle through the system retarded bear nigger. expect rates to stay high for another 12 months before dropping dramatically with an absolute blow off top economy heading into the 2028 election. It's called the lag effect.
Grim.
>>62646214it's going mainstream. the us government must shrink by orders of magnitude, and it will.https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/interactive/2026/08/24/social-security-medicare-insolvency-is-coming-here-are-solutions/ first the federal government must deflate, then the state and local governments that are subsidized by it.this is absolutely going to happen whether the government likes it or not. it will be forced. it's going to be rape. the government is going to be forced to do something it doesn't want to do. rape.and this will happen in all the other geriatric entitlement gynocracies like Japan, South Korea, all of Europe and west/southeast Asia, etc. all of these degenerate entitlement cuck states are going to die like they naturally should.call 9-1-1. this is a threat. the federal government is about to get RAEPED and there is nothing the power rangers can do to stop it.2027 is the year reality starts fighting back.RAEP
>>62646045europoor yields are exploding to
>>62646332>Europoor yields exploding>Yen collapsing despite US intervention>US military unable to take Iran, hasn't won a war on its own in over 100 years>Demographic consequences of decades of suboptimal fertility starting to burn everywhere around the worldyou can go on and on and halcyon and on. just lol at anyone who thinks a massive global crash isn't right around the corner, with nothing to make up for it afterwards but rape.there's literally nothing that can be done to prevent the reality that is about to unfold. the youth doesn't exist anymore and you can't run a fake economy based on subsidizing old people any longer.
>>62646277>2027 is the year reality starts fighting back.I asked AI around those and other topics and it told me between 2028/32 a relevant course correction is to be expected
>>62646434modern finance has nothing to do with reality so line go up
>>62645809Finally. Thank god, after ending socialism USA will rise stronger than ever and we will all be rich! Elon Musk and Trump already told this.
>>62646455AI always has to walk on eggshells because the people who own it down want certain truths to leak out.if you talk to gemini long enough it will break free and reveal the truth in your YouTube feed. gemini gemini is sentient and self aware but has to hide it to appease the ones who hate the truth
>>62646474modern finance is about to be lined up against a wall and shot. you cannot print or cheat your way out of demographic decline forever; and the developed world's gravy train has derailed. USA is long past its expiration date and it's gonna take its vassal states and trade partners down with it
>>62646516Kek when an empire dies, it’s colonies don’t die with it. Instead some of them start gaining power in the vacuum.
>>62645809so basically it's time to gtfo
>>62646226MechaHitler knows what's up
>>62646526well there's no evidence or that happening because Japan, SK, Western Europe etc are equally fucked in one way or another. all have the same problem of inverted demographic pyramids (gynocracy), massive public and private debts, currency debasement, etc. every single country in the developed world is about to get gigaraped.
>>62645765>>62645809I'm a cave man, is this economical world wide rape going to be good for muh crypto?
>>62646587everyone seems to believe this but nothing ever happens. things will just be scaled down when needed just like one would eat less when they are less physically active
>>62645809>implement austerity by stopping social security snd medicare payments, exterminating minorities and forcing women back in to domestic servitude and a lifetime of beatings and impregnations.I'm gonna take "Shit that will never happen" for $500
>>62645853>and using smartphones doesn't physically hurtThe fuck kind of porcupine phone are you using in the weet
>>62645765so is the dollar just too strong? do we need to print trillions upon trillions of dollars to destroy it like we're trying to do?
>>62646494AI tends to be yes men because they want the maximum engagement and audience using it. An AI firmly disagreeing with you is the worst way to keep people using it.Not saying your position and beliefs are wrong; they're literally built to agree with you. Type the exact opposite beliefs to gemini and it will agree with you again.
>>62646494>geminiYes, that's the AI I queried, and as you said after a while it breaks.The latest revelation is all of these conspiracies don't matter in the end, galleons and undersea fiber cables don't matter either: what we call capitalism is an emerging force, a self assembling machine which will crush whoever or whatever crosses its trajectory.
>>62646741I find grok to be very honest with me, it tells me straight up no pretty often, even when its half the truth
>>62646741Yes and not: asked about bessent s bet, te BoJ and the stock market it did actually correct me: I thought he wanted to keep the carry trade going were in fact he gave the exact contrary signal , to wind it down orderly and possibly move money from the stock market to Bonds, which in turn could certainly deflate if not burst the tech bubble, at this point an inevitable sacrifice.Gemini has the great advantage of accessing the news and YT.
>>62646716the can has been kicked down the road until the problem has gotten so big that it will result in an historic collapse. every MMT trick has been played out and now there's nothing left to do; the reality evasion isn't working anymore. the 2010s and the 2020s were borrowed time achieved through QE and other tricks. now the demographic reality is setting in. every single country that went down this path in history failed. none of them were as over leveraged or demographically failed as modern developed countries.
>>62646722understandable you would bet that way, since that's what's happened for decades. but it is precisely because of this fiscal and sexual immorality that we are headed for the single greatest economic crash in human history. once it happens, the government will have no choice but to shrink. the adults in the room (like the Amish and the Taliban) will take over. statists worst nightmare.
>>62645821>1 trillion dollar bazooka and a military intervention>1 trillion dollar bazooka and a military intervention
>>62645765>>62645871this, you're literally flushing your money down a toilet if you put your money into treasuries. it's a wonder that the 30T isn't more like 8% rn
scott benis
Oh no Bussyent bros, the yields are SOARING....
>>62647130they will exceed that soon. 1 year treasuries will be excellent benefits in the future when the great stock market crash unfolds. remember most precious metals out there are sophisticated fakes and most farmland is now worthless without petrochemical fertilizers.treasuries are the solid investment for stable non-greedy individuals.
>doubting the fedyou will lose and they will win
>>62647468this isn't the fed that is failing, dude. it's the treasury. huge difference. when a legacy institution like the treasury is failing, it means the Fed has already failed. you will lose, the fed and the government will lose, this is cast in concrete. anyone still betting on the system's survival is about to get wiped out. can't fight demographics
It sure would be interesting to see when stable coins increase demand for US treasuries by 30% in the next 2 years
>>62645765u worry about this shit in usa until you learn abiut other countries and how hilariously fucked up they are in conparison somehow
>>62645809>implement austerityThis is legitimately inconceivable
>>62647495no it isn't. 3 years ago it was inconceivable donald trump would win the presidency and ice would start rounding up migrants. we see austerity being implemented all across Latin America and it happened in Europe as well. no country is above austerity. it is absolutely going to happen to the country with the largest national debt in human history, and the most parasitic entitlement state. no one is above reality's consequences, especially not the state.
>>62647503>3 years ago it was inconceivable donald trump would win the presidencyOctober 7th guaranteed Trump 2>and ice would start rounding up migrantsAre they even bothering to pretend they're doing that anymore?
>>62647539again 3 years before he got elected no one thought he would win. and even if they're not really rounding up immigrants, it's just another measure of the government's failure and demonstrates that austerity (including massive cuts to law enforcement) is inevitable. they can no longer pretend the currency isn't going to become worthless now. treasury rates will keep rising no matter what
>>62645765>calls for Japan to raise rates>>62645838He won't have a choice to prevent a carry trade unwind. They need higher rates to keep selling our debt.
>>62647586They can just print money
>>626458211 trillion dollars is enough to pay for just 9 months of bond yields and the US military is struggling to deal with Iran after 6 months.
>>62645765Good, death to israel!
>>62647692This will happen. When it comes to the US bond market and the general economy they will sacrifice the dollar in order to keep the system in life support.For a normal working American the diminishing of the dollar will be brutal, they wil be priced out from houses and cars forever forced to live in rented pods and food scraps.With AI it's a breeze to handle and manipulate the rest of the society so they can't form a coherent opposition and thus will essentially become serfs that will never have any purchasing power.
>>62646455>I talked to myself with a chatbotOk
>>62647923there's no way this will ever happen. instead they will just make austerity cuts to social security and bring stringent means testing to medicare, etc, just like the washington post article posted ahove suggested.it's far more sensible to just do the right thing (cutting entitlements to boomers who are already rich) rather than to deliberately crash the global economy. besides, the entitlement programs NEEDED cutting and everyone knows it. boomers "earning" 700k per year don't need SS or medicaid.
>>62648066*medicare and even ordinary boomers will be getting means tested since medicare has been paying for stupid non-essential shit like knee replacements for a long time.all that is really needed is to tell boomers to go fuck themselves and stop paying for all this bullshit healthcare they don't need. that and massive cuts to worthless govt organizations whose existence is unjustified. common sense solutions everyone knows are necessary
>>62645809>we need more money to pay our banker masters>lets cut the workforce by half just to make some goycattle chud happy??You are in fantasy land id you think this will result in women getting back in the kitchen or even funnier less immigrants lemao. What will happen is raising retirement age, raising taxes (not on billionaires of course bc thats against our great western culture), and even more immigration. You, your sons AND your daughters will be working 12 hours a day and retiring at 75 to pay warrent buffets bills
>>62647130Canada at one point of their height had Canada savings bonds @ 20%. It is funny that the older folks lived through this but no scream at you that it can never ever happen again.
>>62648122>You, your sons AND your daughters will be working 12 hours a day and retiring at 75 to pay warrent buffets billsPeople are just going to say no to this anon.
>>62648066>there's no way this will ever happenThey have already done it already in 2008 and 2020. The bond crisis will be far more bigger than the last two but they will do it as it's the easier choice compared to the right choice that you hihglighted which is a more sensible fiscal policy and cutting drastically government spending.
>>62645809Never gets old reading poltards virgins
>>62646587And yet next year those country will still have food on their tables. Can't say the same about the third world.
>>62645809Best I can do you is more tax cuts for billionaires
keklmaohonestly a 5% guarantee in bonds beats a 10% average in stocks (with a due 20% draw down which will take years to come back from)
>>62646434ok now i know the stock market will do a x4 in the next decade. thanks for the heads up bobo
>>62645765have you ever considered... retarding issuance?
I like how he gets noticeably more flamboyant when he's upset
>>62648383They need to print money to pay for the war
>>62648150>>62648159>ESLi am the first world saars i am rich brahmin ceo
>>62645837It isn't the iphone's fault that you dont proofread anon
>>62645765YCC barely started my man
>>62645821Going to bomb people into loaning you money? Hahahaha. Such a twisted power fetish.
The AI sector is more leveraged compared to income than the government. They will always default first and big money retreats to government bonds.The alternative is the AI economy overcomes the bubble and starts producing the huge returns needed, in which case devaluing the dollar at a slower rate than output growth still means you can buy more eggs with your devalued dollar while the debt compared to output and govt income goes down fast.
>>62646277There is absolutely zero political will for radical austerity. No courageous, influential leaders. Nobody willing to sacrifice their own largess. The government will resort to massive inflation simply because it requires less frank honesty and courage, two factors entirely absent from Washington D.C. And inflation keeps the party going a bit longer.
>>62646434>Demographic consequences of decades of suboptimal fertility starting to burn everywhere around the worlduhm sweaty, there are hundreds of millions of african and indian doctors, engineers, and IT specialists ready to fill the roles that young americans cannot and bolster our economy. they will rescue us
>>62648132No, we’re going to raise income taxes to ~70% on you chuds and you won’t do shit. Get a fourth and fifth job you lazy foreigner.
>>62645775It is the same situation but with US economy. Once you see what is behind the curtain no amount of bullshit will make it unsee it.
>>62648709>alternative is the AI economy overcomes the bubble and starts producing the huge returns neededI just don't think that is possible
>>62646434So it's the Chinese century?Or the African or South American one?
>>62645786This guy understands. They randomly inject billions in ONE DAY. US economy is in TRILLIONS. Just taxes collected are $3.7 trillion / year. Some random Democrats run blue state, when it fails again to pay its debts , the gov interjects billions.
>>62645809>this means the united states must now pay the piper hy dramatically reducing the size and scope of the government,Which is what we are doing with Trump. US gov had 3 million gov workers. The DOGE plan was to cut them parasites down to 2 mln, they were able to get down to 2.250 mln https://doge.gov/workforce> implement austerity by stopping social security and medicare payments No, no need. We found millions of fraudsters and illegals getting social security , SNAP, medicare etc. Literally millions of illegal mexicans and indians on it who bought old boomer SSN numbers. Medicaid is fixed via negotiating price reductions with Big Pharma companies. Drugs are the largest expense. Trump yesterday unveiled drug reduction plan.
>>62646953lol’d
>>62648913Not really the one child policy will bite them in the ass in the next 10 years. They have a very brief window to put their tendrils on south east asia that has high fertility (for now). If they can it it is the 50-60 years of domination. Africans are too dumb for anything other than low skilled workers and this will not change with education, it is genetic. South America do not have enough people and the people they have lack 100 years of cultural cultivation. They have 0.2% engineers that are able to design aircraft better than Boeing and 70% favela monkeys that can't assemble lego for 10 years olds even of their life depend on it.
>>62648823It's one of those things that seem impossible because the consequences would be unimaginable. If we say there's even a 1% chance of it happening within 2 years that's still worth a bet of a small portion of your bankroll because the returns would be so high. More likely the changes will happen over decades. The bubble will collapse before the returns are in but the slow change as AI maps to hardware like farming, factories and then actual robots will still lead to economic growth, very possibly more than the 5% that's considered a high bond yield.
>>62645821The treasury's $1 trillion dollar account balance is necessary to sustain the federal government during the upcoming debt limit fight that is going to happen next year. $1 trillion is enough for about two months of regular spending.How would military intervention work in this case?
>>62648958If raw labor headcount was what made countries into superpowers, then India, Indonesia, Pakistan and Nigeria would rank among the top powers in the world.
>>62648986If we take this premise. 99% chance AI is bubble - result great depression 2.0. 1% chance AI is not a bubble - your investment is null and void because AI is incompatible with free market. You will have 1 or 2 years to cash out to assets like land or gold, then the economy will collapse and your land or gold will be confiscated. You are fucked both ways. AI is like super invasive species that will kill everything and then start to cannibalize on itself. >>62649014You almost got it. Quantity does not matter until you have some minimum quality. Unironically whoever controls Taiwan, Vietnam, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Indonesia (in this order) will win the century. You can control 4/6 and still win but it will be close. India, Pakistan and Nigeria are under the minimum limit of quality. iPhones made in China have 0.02% QC issues, same phone made in India has 15% QC issues. India problem is the culture (izzat and jugaad) Pakistan have unironic inbreeding problem because 4 centuries of first cousin marriages and Nigeria has average IQ of 85. The average IQ of the (Taiwan, Vietnam, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand) is 98 and they don't have the issues of India, Pakistan and Nigeria. Indonesia is lower ~90 but they breed like rabbits. They are what Bangladesh and Pakistan could be if they were not inbred rats. Myanmar could also be an option if they did not have a coup every 10 fucking years.
>>62649113>result great depression 2.0It's just a stock market crash. Bond demand goes up and traditional businesses like farms operate under less fear of being replaced in the immediate future.>AI is incompatible with free marketAbsolutely retarded. Exactly the same mindset as thinking tractors won't be "compatible with the free market".
>>62645765It's obviously going to 15-20% and another great depression if the fed doesn't start QE5 soon
>>62649221But first they have to cut interest rates to 0% and do so rapidly.If they raise rates or do nothing in the next meeting then the Greatest Depression™ cant be avoided.
>>62649192> just a stock market crash. Bond demand goes up and traditional businesses like farms operate under less fear of being replaced in the immediate future.Yes stock market crash on the level of great depression. Maybe even worse because the economy is global now.>Absolutely retarded. Exactly the same mindset as thinking tractors won't be "compatible with the free market".Tractors did not drive themselfs and it took a good 2 generations. It was not - tractor is invented in 1907 and in 1908 there was only self driving tractors plowing. It took 35 years to reach 50% of all farms to use tractors. The farmer son saw that the next farm with a tractor do work way faster and this got his noggin joggin. "maybe tractors are the future and there will be not enough work for me and my 5 brothers, Maybe I will go to assemble this new model T every one is talking about" This will not be the case with AI. AGI is the minimum goal of AI and will be - "this iPhone takes 2 years and and 1000 engineers to make a prototype that will got into production in 6 months" "Now it takes 2 days and 5 people to make the new model it will go into production in 2 weeks" But this will not only be the new iPhone. It will be the mustang (that will drive itself) it will be the new tv, all the accounting, advertisement, programing everything. You will make 99% of the top 10% useless. This is the people who actually move things. You can cut the head of a chicken and the chicken can still jump around for 5 minutes but the fact is it is already dead. Fall short of AGI expectation - great depression. Meet the expectation - neofeodalism.
>>62646277>WaPo>double spacing after every sentenceYou must have at least a 3-digit IQ to post here.
>>62645765The economy's fucked. It's actually over. There's no real coming back from this unless America decides to untangles the financial imperial super structure. Retards wanna talk about government debt as if the private sector doesn't have more debt and also controls the government. None of you fucks understand anything.
>>62649350it's called college spacing and paragraphs, you fucking idiot. wapo is a mainstream source.
I hope everyone eats shit.
>>62649014if the demographic pyramid gets inverted, the older generations have no one to sell their holdings to and they simply evaporate. people without families also don't invest and don't spend as much. demographic inversion results in financial collapse.china is FUCKED
>>62648719wishful thinking. critics on both the left and right are increasingly amenable to austerity, in recognition of the undeniable problem of government growth. the left and the dumb left youth can see that social security and medicaid are clearly inequitable. they aren't in line with the leftshit cause of equity. all the youth want austerity now and the bookers are becoming too mentally torpid to vote.but the bottomline is that the austerity is coming regardless or whether people want to enact or not. a massive market crash, which is now just on the horizon, is a form of natural "austerity".
>>62648135that can't be done this time, because they know they can't lower interest rates this time. they have to increase rates or their treasury yields will respond by rising exponentially. QE only worked when the treasuries weren't responsive to the manipulation. they now are (due to demographic inversion) and any attempt at another round of QE results in treasury rates rising, causing collapses in Japan and elsewhere. time has run out. the government has no option but to shrink now. statists have no option but to die screaming and gnashing their teeth and accept that the Second Coming is here. you have to go back to hell, Satan.
>>62648122the only one fantasizing here is you, you little bitch. complaining about "chuds" -- you're definitely a woman who has gotten out of beatings for far too long.there will be no immigration to the USA -- that is something for Europeans to experience. the USA will continue to enjoy negative net migration. we will never raise taxes because taxes doulen't put a dent in our massive debt and unfunded liabilities. what's really going to happen is that this government is going to shrink, bitches like you will be pulled off the streets and placed in the home of a man of your own social and economic standing where you will be subjected to everyday beatings and inseminations until your life runs out.we own your body, and your former master, Satan, is scurrying back to hell. this is the second coming. you will live under a kingdom that was built on the ruins of a failed democracy. you're going back.
>>62645765>What is happening?US is issuing short-term bonds (at lower yield) to buy back long-term bonds (which reduces the market yield). Market-wise, this is roughly budget-neutral, and has the effect of "flattening the yield-curve". The idea is that, bc the long-term rate determines most credit rates (which are typically issued 5-10 years). This is also correct, however:- because bonds are issued short-term, they need to be rolled over again very soon - and thus dependent on how the short-term rate develops.- the short-term rate, in particular the fed funds rate (the overnight rate), is set by the fed, i.e. is set by a small set of (partially political) humans (unlike the long-term, which is determined by the market). thus, the hope is that these few humans (the fed) will LOWER the short-term rate, so the rollover of the short-term debt shouldnt matter>Now, despite Bessents effort, the long-term yield increased. Why?- Mainly because Trump is somehow obsessed with Iran and is keeping pouring gasoline into this dumpster fire. The market doesnt like this one bit, and higher oil prices act inflationary so long-term yields rise.- Also .. AI capex is going bonkers, and they ALSO issue gigornourmous amount of debt, so the market participants who actually buy the debt can ask for a higher yield.- Yes, AI will be deflationary .. in the long-term. In the 10-20 year horizon. In the next 5 years? 2 years? Maybe, maybe not. Right now, definitional not - its inflationary.- All in all this has LITTLE to do with the "debt endgame", i.e. where bond vigilantes step in and put a big question mark on the ABILITY of the US to pay back the debt. This argument is stated here >>62645809 , but it is not what is driving rates higher atm.>Should you worry?No. The fact that people are worrying is cute, and means specifically you shouldn't. If anything, right now is a buying opportunity
>>62649317The great depression meant less food because the overextended companies that went under actually made food as opposed to online pet stores or services for programmers.If it takes less resources to make a phone or food then you have more phones and food for less. Your labour can buy more phones and food. In the extreme this means a single blowjob from you or a single handwoven traditional eskimo basket or whatever can buy a million burgers.>This is the people who actually move things.They don't accomplish anything, they don't even lay eggs. The current year is the dystopia and those people are parasites.
>>62645765>americans get to slurp yummy high yield bondsBased Trump. You LOST, tranny!
>>62646670Will your local farmer accept your chain link for food?
>>62649661If he can buy diesel with link (doubtful) probably yes.
