I spent the last 2 days trying to develop a model to optimally time buys and sells for Bitcoin, and although I've finally managed to come up with something promising, what I've ultimately discovered is that for the most part, simply going all in at literally any point, even a cycle top, outperforms trying to "outsmart the market"So in other words, if you were to hypothetically go all in, right now, which is definitely not a cycle top, you would 100% not be making a mistake (even if it goes down in the short term) and would be outperforming 99% of "traders"Let that sink in, anon
Have a bump and share more, wise one
People forgot how to accumulate. It's going to be so funny watching all these new traders completely miss out on the bull market and have to wait years to even think about making it again.
It's depressing how every market works the same and everyone selling models and rainbow charts is just bullshit.
>>62652074>optimally time buys and sells for Bitcoin,buy each week, same amountsimple as
>>62652241surprisingly going all in and HODLing actually outperforms blind weekly DCAing unless you go all in at a cycle top
>>62652074Buttcorn will never be significantly above Saylor's average buying price again. Lets that sink in.
>>62652204mine is kinda good, but not amazing. Going all in uses way less brainpower, you don't even have to do anythingpic related: if you started in January 2017
>>62652286This is Feb 1 2023, the rally after the cycle bottom was in, similar to where we possibly are now (still don't know)An additional 15.7% is pretty meh
>>62652315August 17 2022, the rally before we bled out into Q4
>>62652286>>62652315>>62652328worth noting that on all of these, obviously DCA makes money. But if it's a matter of "I have 10k now, do I go all in or slowly deploy it over time", going all in wins basically all of the time
>>62652286>>62652315>>62652328how much non realized loss are you able to hold?
>>62652341How much Bitcoin in loss could I hold? Infinite.
>>62652435So you could put your entire nw into btc and see it dump -99.99% and go with a smile to flip burgers? i dont believe you
>>62652074Consider the following . There are trading B---o---t---s that are going to look at the buy , sell, shorts and longs, and then trade down below one group, and then above the other group. And then come back into the middle. You are welcome.
>>62652254 > going all in and HODLing actually outperforms blind weekly DCAing unless you go all in at a cycle topNo, you didn't recognize how it all works. See my post below.>>62652800
>>62652074I'm up 60% in 2 days trading RH shitcoins while BTC has floundered and dropped. You're not factoring in time horizon and opportunity cost. Yes, long term, trying to trade the market probably it's tough to beat just buy and hold, but if you trade for upside during bull markets and downside during bear you'll beat buy and hold. The real problem is, your algo sucks, but that's not your fault - if you could perfect it, you wouldn't be whining here about how it doesn't work. It's not easy to do.
this is all very interesting but it's only half the game. you've got to sell the top too
>>62652859The thing is that you have to correctly pick which shitcoin to buy out of thousands. Pick wrong and you get nothing, or rekt. It's undervalued how BTC removes this risk completely. You can go all in with basically no risk of picking the wrong horse. Growing your stack when its all in, instead of only growing ~20% of it because you had to diversify for safety, is worth a lot of money
>>62653016That's what the model tries to do, buy low and sell high, in such a way that you make more than just holding (ie. grow your BTC stack by trading it)Selling the top is the hardest part because selling early is so punishing. That's why just HODLing is so effective
>>626526071 BTC = 1 BTC
