Do you hold bonds, /biz/?Why/why not?Is it a good time to buy bonds?
>>62672038NoShitty long-term returnsNo
whats the best bond market to buy them? >>62672172looks like you get 5%+ just to buy and hold. can't really beat it.
>>62672181You *really* need to learn more about bonds. They are almost as bad as cash. Not even t-bill "cash equivalent" but actual cash in your mattress levels of bad.
>>62672038bonds are for pussies
they generate income no matter what. those reits u use to pay ur bills can and will cancel the dividend right when u need it most. looking at u epr.
>>62672181Bonds aren't bad. Well, except when you're in a bond crisis, which is like, right now. You should do an AI session to educate yourself on it because /biz/ doesn't understand that shit. I do, but if I explain it, I'll be accused of usijg AI, so... Qrd: worst time to buy bonds in history was 2020, second worst time in history is right now.
>>62672190>You *really* need to learn more about bonds. They are almost as bad as cash. Not even t-bill "cash equivalent" but actual cash in your mattress levels of bad.both investment advisers I've had keep telling me to put 40% in bonds and they just sit there losing money wtf
>>62672449>Bonds aren't bad. Well, except when you're in a bond crisis, which is like, right now. You should do an AI session to educate yourself on it because /biz/ doesn't understand that shit. I do, but if I explain it, I'll be accused of usijg AI, so...>Qrd: worst time to buy bonds in history was 2020, second worst time in history is right now.ok, thnaks, will pipe this into Grok right now
>>62672038I'd just buy boomer etfs
>>62672467In a sane/fair world, rates would be going up aggressively, but governments make it "impossible". Theyre overtly stealing your money, in USA as well as EU, but muh AI likely wont admit that unless you push it.
>>62672500tell it to include PCT in its answer
>>62672506>0.00% chance of rate hikeI.e. 100% chnce of long term value destructionSo if they dont hike rates bonds are trash and if they hike rates bonds are trash because youll get hammered short term
>>62672522Ah yes he will cut rates because the orange man wants it right? Welcome to turkey. Rate can go up. The extent to which rates can go up is determined by levels of heroicness. A real man (like me) would zap them to 6% overnight and let the necessary destruction play out
>>62672534>A real man (like me) would zap them to 6% Anyway everybody knows they wont do the needful so the truth is, it's bad to be in bonds in either scenario. >>62672522 thinks that makes it a good idea to buu bonds but he's wrong about that
Ugh fuckimg phoneposting i sware to me mum ah carn't format
Whu the fuck did you delete your post, we are both right, the only thing is thst its still a bad idea to buy bonds in your scenario
Other anon-san...come back... I miss you, I didnt try to be mean, you perfectly exposed why we are in the shit we are in. It would have been educational for lurkers
>>62672534It’s too late retard. Rates go up and the interest on the upcoming debt which is being refinanced means we are paying more in interest then we take in as revenue. 40 trillion in debt with high rates means we pay 2 militaries worth of cash to appease most bankers? LmaoDon’t worry there’s a new system in town, FluffySatoshisan
>>62672038i think i saw bonds oncedidn't bought, wasn't interested.then it dumped, i bought a bit and some solcatthen i got some spare soli wanted to post a pot on it on pot.fun but ended up picking solcatgood lord i did, solcat actually got the potbut yeah, bonds never pumped after thatmaybe a heavenly signal?
>>62672464>40% in bondsThis has been standard investing advice ever since 1929. It's become increasingly obvious that bond performance in the great depression was an aberration caused by the decade of high deflation rates (~10%) that followed. More recent studies of bond performance shows that they are *much* higher risk than had been previously supposed, and that the best portfolio for long-term performance is 100% stocks. Turns out that while bonds can reduce your downside in a crash by 25% or so, that is less important than the pre- and post-crash upsides of a 100% stock portfolio. Comparisons of portfolio performance during a downturn invariably assume they have the same starting value, but this is rarely true in the real world because that 100% stock portfolio had 2x-3x the returns of the 60:40 portfolio for however many years before the crash, and for however many years *after* the crash. It's just a question of whether you prefer watching your $1.5m 60:40 portfolio drop by 75% (leaving you with 1.1m at the bottom) followed by a 6 year recovery, or watch your $4m 100:0 portfolio drop by 50% (leaving you with $2m at the bottom) followed by a 3 year recovery.
>>62672038I held bonds the past 8 months and lost a lot of money. Should have been in VDE the whole time, but have corrected it.
No because I do not need protection being a younger person who can simply wait If they hit 8% I’d buy some but otherwise returns aren’t there. I would also consider some war bonds but this is more of a help my country thing and not a make money thing
>>62673201>a patient anonWait am I still on /biz/?I'd forget about helping your country, because your country has 0 intent of helping you.It's quite ironic actually. Democracy is supposed to recycle politicians. While this has many downsides there is also the possibility that someone of good character gets in charge and does the needful. that never happened and now it's pretty much too late. It's fascinating; as soon as someone gets into power, they instantly become governmentmaxxers, and they double down on fleecing citizens.
I hold a short term money market fund. It's a basket of short-dayed gov. Bonds - $230,000 of your dollars' worth. It gets okay returns, like 4.5%. The best feeling is that it's guaranteed, that cash is always going up no matter what, so that's a good backbone to the portfolio.I do want to move it into index funds eventually, but I'll wait for some dip so obvious even I can notice it. Until then I'm very happy to have it as dry powder.
>>62672038I have a lot in short term bond and short term tips, SGOV and STIPS, but more of my safety cash in precious metals. I have a lot in bonds and metals because I am not too concerned about making much growth, and I think metals are unironically going to keep doing better if not much better than equity indexes. Short term bonds just keep me liquid enough
>>62672038I switched my entire 401k at the start of the iran warto a stable fund which is essentially bond minus being stuck holding for the time limit. This has been a retarded move because i miased out on probably 15k of gains since then but i havent switched back to large market cap yet because im still expecting a crash once the oil reserves run out. Actual bonds seem like a terrible idea because youre locked into them so you cant take advantage of slurping opportunities
>>62673201If a bond hits 8% it means you should stay the fuck away from it
>>62675631what if a bond has dropped to 8%?
>>62675649Still pretty risky for a bond imoCurrently the only bond above 5% I would buy is IcelandHigher coupon rates are almost universally indicative of higher risk. For example, the russian bond coupon looks amazing until you look at their currency implosion over the past few years. There is no free lunch in finance
>>62672038Bonds make sense for people with a lot of moneySo not /biz/Never been better but stick to ETFs, 5-10 yrs max
OP it helps to understand what bonds are. Do you know what they are? Here's a simple description. the government wants more money to finance spending. they sell bonds, and to entice people to buy them, they pay interest. If there isn't enough demand for those bonds, they have to pay more interest, to entice people further. That's really it. it's an asset class, and you can put 2+2 together and decide house much of them you want in your portfolio. it ain't going to make you rich though.
>>62673170okay so the key thing is to already have 1-2MM.
>>62674800you know as soon as oil reserves come even close to running out, there will be a mysterious peace deal out of nowhere, and the crash you were waiting for will never materialize.
>>62672038only buy bonds when the stock market tops out and everyone is feeling irrational exuberance. bonds will be at a steep discount with double digit interest rates.there's a short window there because you gotta do it before the stock market collapses and fed announces rate cuts and qe5.
>>62677329No, the key thing is to get the highest value portfolio you can before you retire, and the ratio that gets you the highest value portfolio is 100% stocks and 0% bonds. The downside is that it's more volatile, but you can get it high enough that the volatility doesn't affect your ability to live comfortably, and 100% stocks gets you there faster and more reliably than anything with bonds in the mix, because bonds - like cash - are a drag on your portfolio.
