So if you remember back in 2008, crunching the numbers on the stock market, the market kept "flashing" a signal that some wit had named "the Hindenburg Omen". Basically:https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Hindenburg_Omen&oldid=568537539(using an OLD version of the wiki page because the dumbfuck editors have removed practically all the info from the current version)> 1. market breadth sucks: The daily number of NYSE new 52 week highs and the daily number of new 52 week lows are both greater than or equal to 2.8 percent (this is typically about 84 stocks) of the sum of NYSE issues that advance or decline that day (typically, around 3000).> 2. The NYSE index is greater in value than it was 50 trading days ago. Originally, this was expressed as a rising 10 week moving average, but the new rule is more relevant to the daily data used to look at new highs and lows.> 3. The McClellan Oscillator is negative on the same day.> 4. The number of New 52 week highs cannot be more than twice the number of new 52 week lows (though new 52 week lows may be more than double new highs).> As a rule, the shorter the time-frame in which the conditions listed above occur, and the greater the number of conditions observed in that time frame, the stronger the Hindenburg Omen. If several --but not all-- of the conditions are repeatedly observed within a few weeks, that is a stronger indicator than all of the conditions observed just once during a 30-day period.I bring this up right now because apparently this signal has been hitting a lot lately, but the market keeps getting driven higher and higher by retards who think that they'll only survive the AIpocalypse if they own AI stonks.Anyway, just wanted to let everyone know that we may be looking at a significant market decline approaching fast.
>>626757822008 was more than a declineIt shut most of the country down for a year just like covid did.
>>62675782Would be nice but clownworld.
>>62675788Yeah I know, I was there, and it was more like four or five years. 2011 was actually worse than 2008. Also, the whole thing STARTED in 2007, you could see it forming when all the "new model" mortgage companies started collapsing.I did really well until early 2009, then I got wiped out when Bernanke started intervening hard in markets. Every fucking time I took out a position, that fucking kike would blow it up the next morning.A friend's brother made out like a fucking bandit on it, though -- he figured out that oil prices were a nearly perfect leading indicator for what would happen in stocks a few days later. He made enough to retire off of that.
>>62675782When will the blimp come down?
>>62675782Timing works with oil about to go bonkers. I’m already positioned in energy and PMs. I’m just not gonna sell you guys
>>62675969I've been thinking about buying S&P puts. I wish I knew how to model them to maximize return. Like, buy more at a shitty strike price, or fewer at a price where there's lots of intrinsic already; go long-dated or go short-dated and roll positions; that sort of thing.
>>62675782Finance analysts are an absolute joke tbqh. Sure, what they say makes sense and is coherent, but only because the narrative is always constructed in retrospect. Market predictions by experts are slightly less of a coinflip than randomly purchasing stocks. All the math behind it is, again, coherent but feels like an extraordinary amount of work for naugh. Plus even if an actor somehow found a way to predict the market, by using that information the system becomes unpredictable again.Point being, things like the hindenburg omen and expensive pattern alalysis software is astrology for men
>>62676003>Point being, things like the hindenburg omen and expensive pattern alalysis software is astrology for menI agree most TA is the equivalent of astrology. TA "works" because so many big Wall Street trading firms believe in TA.The HO is different. It is a measure of a market that is running on fumes. When the gas tank empties, the market drops.
