A. I've started a task force to assess the effectiveness of task forces.B. Due to the markets preemptive reaction to the rate hike we we're planning, we've decided to hold.C. There will be less future guidance going forward, we're going hiking next month in the hills around hiketober. D. While we were out hiking in the hills around holdtember we decided to take a break and hold.E. Sometimes you have a start a hike with a break by holding.E. Due to better than expected job growth combined with an impending energy crisis which will not effect america, we've decided to hold.F. We're definitely going to hike in holdvember.
That hiking speech is so surreal, i have rarely seen something so absolutely bizarre. Its pointless to write words about itIt's like a strange diagnosis of everything wrong with this bullshit system
>>62694457I remember in high school i'd prepare things to say and felt really cool about it likr some kind of mastrrmindI really wonder whats going through this clown's head. Not to know what he thinks about the economy but just thr absurd paychology of it all
>>62694461I remember back in High school when i could trap out a G for twenty and go flip Glass from the arab smoke shops on a 2-3x margin FUCK OBAMA
>>62694403>A. I've started a task force to assess the effectiveness of task forcesHe has to hike. He would of talked tough and acted dovish but the 10 year forced his hand.
>>62694684a hike would be a mistakeinflation is moderateeconomy isnt doing that welland labour market isnt either
>>62694690Economy is doing good, labour is doing great. You dont hike into an energy crises is the one ill give you.It doesnt matter though, bonds control the world and the ten year is fucked. 30 year is right beside fucked. Ever major crash started when the 30 hit 6%. These guys dont have a choice, especially with 40t in debt.
>>62694723>Economy is doing goodnah, growth is 1.5% in the last quarter>labour is doing greatnah>bonds control the worldbonds are likely going up, because people need money to buy energy
>>62694403I thought you meant actually hiking like we has off innawoods. Was a more comfy vision having a fed chairman out hiking all the time.
>>62694747lol
>>62694743That and 40t in debt, and inflation, and Trump attacking the largest bond buyers, and Japanese inflation.So well we disagree on the economy in my opinion it doesn't matter. Everything going forward is for the bond vigilantes. They want to see a hike.
>>62694759it would be a gigantic mistake to hikethe economy would keel over
No hikes. The situation is concerning but there is a task force looking into it further. *Leaves*
>>62694723>Economy is doing good, labour is doing great.TOP KEK
>>62694768The exact opposite is true. If they don't hike it'll signal to everyone that the dollar is a joke and there will be mass dumping of treasuries. He HAS TO hike.
>>62694768Rock and a hard place. I feel you dont grasp what 6% 30 year means. Everyone agrees with you, but they will hike anyways. If im wrong rub it in my face tommorow. If Im right educate yourself on bonds.
Where DO I PUT MY FUCKING MONEYHELLOHELLO HELP ME
>>62694773>>62694776bonds are going up everywhere, because people need cash to buy energyits got little to do with the fed hiking or notfed chair is a tough job and you need to be able to weather these traps the public sets for youdont hike Kevin
>>62694784How does the 3.6% inflation fit into your model?
>>62694403I don't fuggin know but I'm definitely not bottling up completely unhinged emotions on the matter
>>62694790core inflation is 2.4% and the lowest its been for 5 yearsthe entire rate hike discussion is a ruse
if they don't hike yields go to the moon lmao it's so over interest payments will pass even boomer gibs
>>62694796>lowest its been for 5 years
>>62694758>There will be less future guidance going forward, we're going hiking next month in the hills>Sometimes you have a start a hike with a break in guidance >Due to better than expected weather combined with an impending electrolyte burst which will not effect america, we've decided to hike
>>62694403Affect*
>>62694684>>62694723He isn't going to hike. Why do you think the treasury is mostly selling short term debt to buy long term?
>>62694819>sorry, we can't hike today, we lost our hiking boots
>>62694829please elaborate?
>>62694837If the treasury buys all its long term debt, which it doesn't control the rate of, and uses short term debt for such purposes, which the fed controls the rate of, you can at least make the interest repayments manageable. Bessent is playing 5D chess.The Treasury knows inflation will come down.The Fed knows the Treasury knows inflation will come down.The Treasury knows the Fed knows the Treasury knows inflation will come down.The Fed knows the Treasury knows the Fed knows the Treasury knows inflation will come down.And they both know that the other knows that they both know.They will always default to devaluing the dollar. The long end is going up so much due to AI Corp bonds going up, so treasury has to offer more. If they just get rid of the long end bond issuance, the fed can just keep the rates low and buy it, that way refinancing the debt is easier since you can just tell the fed to buy it and keep refinancing it easily.If they keep increasing the rates, the long term effect is actually worse inflation because the debt pile grows exponentially, so they won't do it.
>>62694783In your wallet fool, correlations are going to 1, and all the gamblers are going to kill themselves on trading paper oil, as usual
Trump complained constantly about JPow not cutting rates and pressured him to resign, then replaced him with a jew, who he hasn't accosted once even though he hasn't cut rates once.
>>62694829To try and prevent rising bond rates. The results speak for themselves. So here we are.
>>62694796>core inflation is 2.4% and the lowest its been for 5 yearsFucking kekNever learn anything about economics, /biz/. I live for these comedic posts
Long oil stocks while you are at it! 100x preferably. It's a sure bet! Demand? That doesnt exist! It's only supply! Only supply exists! At $150 per barrel, well who cares? Demand will never ever ever change! Oil is totally not a commodity. Just ignore the demand side. 100x long oil stocks. Demand NEVER changes. Only supply does.Good luck /biz/!
>>62694684.25 and I swear we're not fucking around.(Nothing happens after that)
>>62694866core inflation is at 2.4%rate hikes are a jewish trap
>>62694862>Trump complained constantly about JPow not cutting rates and pressured him to resign,Damn. Central banks have no hope. The orange man will complain and threaten to do something he can't do... oh no... the fed is really trembling.
>>62694881Ok. Well, thanks for making me laugh a second time.
>>62694876This, but again I think the bond vigilantes are in control so thats the plan but how it works out, who knows. 4 days ago I was debating putting 10k in for no rate hike, its just the 10 year suprised everyone.
>>62694885you have no argument, Shlomo
>>62694864That isn't going to prevent bond rates rising. The reason is to reduce the burden, not the rates.
>>62694891Oh I have plenty of arguments, but like I said, I come here to laugh, so I need you fags to stay uneducated.I mean, I'm replying to a guy here who thinks a negative real rate is the aryan way. All you can think about is number going up. Reality is completely irrelevant. This is what uninformed investing does to a motherfucker and I love to see it. How about this? I'd like to borrow money from you. I'll pay you back the nominal sum in 10 years. That's the aryan way right? Kek. Ah... pearls before swine.
>>62694854>>62694893This is a good post but>Bessent is playing 5D chess.Bro, the guys a fucking clown. When Yellen was doing this he criticized it non stop, only to do the same thing 5x worse when he got her job.https://nourielroubini.com/articles/ati-activist-treasury-issuance-and-the-tug-of-war-over-monetary-policy/>they keep increasing the rates, the long term effect is actually worse inflation because the debt pile grows exponentially, so they won't do it.Im going to need a source on this one. Definitely not economic theory, so what is the empirical evidence?
>>62694904Shut up. Trust Sessions, trust Flynn, trust Bessent, trust Trump. WWG1WGA, 2 more weeks, inflation is transitory.
>>62694904Thats because yellen had the chance of a lifetime to issue long term debt at all time low rates and she didn't.You don't know what the fuck you're talking about do you?Evidence? Thomas Sargent & Neil Wallace (1981), “Some Unpleasant Monetarist Arithmetic.”Welcome to fiscal dominance.
>>62694907Kek, but I do want to trust Bessent. Up until 2 months ago he the smartest man in the administration. That's why this 180 so bizare? Even his old boss/mentor publicly called him out. https://www.youtube.com/watch?app=desktop&v=FiRJmOX03TM
>>62694904>so what is the empirical evidenceThe empirical evidence is the national debt. Rates cant be raised too high because of that. The obvious truth is, jews have bled the amerigolem dry, and this is the killshot. The can cannot be kicked down the road infinitely. Where does the buck stop? Well, right here. There is no solution that does not involve max pain. That's the funny part.
>>62694913Oh and, Thomas Sargent was recently hired by Warsh, at the fed, as part of a team, on how to fight inflation. Essentially, they are looking for ways that don't involve hikes.
>>62694913She issued more debt than anyone before her dumbass. You sound like a 6 digit poorfag indoctrinated maga faggot with no friends, you should kill yourself. 1981 paper, Grok help you find that, LOL.
>>62694926Im sure they are, you keep talking about what they are TRYING to do you gullible faggot.
>>62694927She issued SHORT TERM DEBT when she should have issued LONG TERM DEBT at ultra low rates you absolute fucking spasticated cunt.
>>62694916Well they probably have gay blackmail on him or something. Don't you think it's strange that as soon as somebody enters gov't, they become complete government maxxers? They'll do anything to screw over everybody else. As long as it benefits the government. It doesnt matter if they only have 4 years in govt, somehow, they do EVERYTHING in their power for the government side, and they put in the maximum effort to screw over everybody else.
>>62694933Its not even worthwhile responding to someone as retarded as you. Keep slurping the MSM "rate hike" news you poorfag
>>62694933He's not just drinking the koolaid, he was baptized in it. Looks like we gotta add Thomas Sargent to the Trust list.
>>62694936>Well they probably have gay blackmail on him or somethingThis. If Bessent doesn't do what he's told, they are going to release evidence that he is gay. It's fucking over for Bessent!
>>62694942>No U r poorLOL. When you are wrong tomorrow, kill yourself.
>>62694942Trust Bessent. Trust ... Tomas Sargent. Inflation will be fought by... um... they will fight inflation by... uhhhh... lemme think.... other ways....yep. Other ways are going to slay inflation. Are the other ways in the room with us right now? Does ''other ways'' include bombing the global economy? Cause that's what they're doing.... but I guess... yeah.... those other ways... trust Tomas Sargent!!!
>>62694952You don't get it do you? Higher rates, higher inflation because debt servicing goes up requiring more debt issuance.There is no uhm and ah.
>>62694948OK faggot. Enjoy your "hold" tomorrow while you're holding your virgin cock watching cuckporn, childless little waste of space. Don't forget to clock in tomorrow.
>>62694958Don't worry, I get it. Other ways will fight inflation. The situation is entirely sustainable and fixable, and I trust the plan. I for one will cast my vote for the guaranteed $5000. As long as Iran doesn't have a nuclear weapon.
>>62694935Wrong. I am embarrassed for you. You should kill yourself.
>>62694960This poorfag nigga thinking about my cock. He mad, LOL.
>>62694403didnt trump hand pick this fag why is he tightening they should cut rates to 0 and rip the inflation bandaid off rather then break the entire economy to save their credibility
>>62694982>they should cut rates to 0 and rip the inflation bandaid offWhat is the inflation bandaid?
>>62694900reality is core inflation is at 2.4% and the lowest in 5 yearsinflation is a none issue
>>62694943Kek, just seeing this now.Fuck, came here to see if I should put 100k into Bayhorse silver, got distracted by these retards and soulless Banon shills. You have a gooder.>>62694891You are clearly clever, and know your 200 level macro economics. You just need to read more on bonds. They are the real kings of the world. Even Stalin starved his people and sold grain to pay the bankers. Knowing dead people were preferable to a late payment and higher rates.
>>62694988>inflation isInflation was*KekLike I said, stay uneducated, you just made me laugh for the third time. You should be getting paid for this. it's hard work being a comedian.
>>62694995>makes a statement about Fed sovereignty by raising it a token amount before capitulating like a good goyNothing personal Mr. President.
>>62694997no thats the latest number2.4% is core inflation for august
>some biz anons are still saying rates are staying flatI bet a lot of money that they are staying flat because of you guys. Please tell me im going to make it.
I'm going to buy approximately 5k worth of 0DTE puts around 10 mins before the rate hike. What am I in for?
>>62695057Thats what I want to know. Some insiders here claimed that the market is wrong and rates will be flat, so huge money can be made betting if it pays off.
>>62695036Who gives a fuck about your little metric which excludes the biggest pain point (food and energy) for 99% of people.Eat shit faggot. Inflation is up, people are struggling. Done deal.
>>62695062>Some insiders here claimedGives me full confidence that we are in fact getting a 50 bps hike just because of that
>>62694403his face is weird It's like a kike and jeet did a fusion dance
i plan on using margin and buying 1000 shares of SPY, i will close at market close but do I buy/short at market open or 1 minute prior to FOMC
You tards realize the chair isn't the only one calling the shots?
>>62695084What do you mean? Whats happening with the rates?
>>62695084>>62695084>You tards realize the chair isn't the only one calling the shots?The fed chair has the power to coerce though and since fed chair has one of the few non governmental positions with a license to kill, most don't vote against the chair. Saying that he's not "calling the shots" is a bit like saying a home invader who woke you up out of bed by holding a gun to your head and demanding that you suck his dick gave you "the choice to perform fellatio and he was never actually forcing you to do it" and isn't actually "calling the shots" either. At best, it's disengious.
>>62695067an energy shock is not inflationaryas the core inflation showsthats why that metric exists
Good thread and discourse, a bump good sirs
>>62694403>C. There will be less future guidance going forward, we're going hiking next month in the hills around hiketober.Kekkarooo. I laughed bigly when I read the second paragraph or whatever it was of his last speech. Holy signaling
>>62694403G. Pee is stored in the balls
>>62694403No hike. He's a coward. Market will have a celebratory pump and then start crabbing.>>62694829The federal reserve is not subordinate to the treasury
>>62694403I need a /biz/ task force to assess effectiveness of having two E. options.
>>62694403A. I've started a task force to asess the validity of data we've been looking at. They found out that some people have been lying about prices being too high, and actually prices have never been lower. According to our new TruthData model we will lower rates.
>>62694403A for sure. That fucker sure does love to say task force.
12-0 vote for a rate hike kekI'm laughijg so hard at all the retards here
Niggas itt and other threads tried all the mental gymnastics in the world...all they wanted to see was the words that made their gambling habits pay off, with their heads firmly stuck in the sand. Let this be a lesson to you morons... never talk about economics again. May your shit go -70%. Never invest again. And then kill yourself.
>>62697049>>62697086the hike is a mistake
>>62695152We've been dealing with an energy "shock" for years since Ukraine.
>>62697107You especially have absolutely zero clue. Imagine coming back to cope after spewing the absolue rank garbage you've spewed itt. Delusional pig. Holy kek.
>>62697170calm down, shlomoyou got what you wantedthis hike cycle will kill the economy
>>62694829The quintessential modern /biz/ poster and the quintessential modern /biz/ threadJust a bunch of fucking ESL retards armed with Grok arrogantly spewing shit up and down about shit they know nothing about, wasting everyone's fucking time, and then fucking off when they've been BTFO'd by reality because of course it was a 12-0 vote with ANOTHER hike planned by EOY. If this thread doesn't shellshock you into doing a 360 and running the fuck away from this board then enjoy losing all your money listening to these fucking retards lol
>>62697204>armed with Grok arrogantly spewing shit up and down about shit they know nothing aboutTopkek. Truth nuke. Only reason to come here is to laugh at these crabs in a bucket. I get carried away and start giving them (you)s, kinda wastes my time, but it also makes the payoff better
Btw is this the famous ''other ways'' to fight inflation? Or should we now remove Bessent and ''Thomas Sargent'' from the Trust List?
>>62694958Unnnnnggggggg, you are a fucking retard! Bam. LOLOLOLOLOL!
>>62697170>>62697247see, Shlomoeverything is crashingas I told youtheyre killing the market and the economybut thats what you wanted, right
Guys I don't think Donnie is gonna like this one.
>>62697548basically everytime the fed does a rate hike cycle it crashes the marketthe jews have chosen to kill it all while trump is in office
>>62697560>Posts pics of Hitler>Actually a MagatGross
>>62697560All trump had to do was nothing and he could have set up 20 years of GOP rule and he couldn't because he's a senile old mango that can't let his ego go and wants to suck jew cock. You're a fucking dumbfuck.
>>62697560The market is fine though Only portion that got a little butthurt was the financial sector
>cuts 15-20 min worth of questions from the presswhat did he mean by this?
>>62697542Your stocks arent the economy, baggie.
>>62697686oh reallyyou think rate hikes help the economy, Shlomo?
>>62697697:D do yourself a favor kid. go on youtube and watch economics 101 before buying your next batch of stocks
>>62697746rate hikes are explictely a tool to weaken the economy, Shlomo
where have you gone, Shlomo?
>>62697859Economics 101, baggie. Watch it.
>>62697879see>>62697775
>>62697885? It's not my problem that you think you just posted a gotcha. Again, economics 101.
>>62697903its no my problem, you ve been wrong the entire thread
Turns out being kowtowed by the bond market is bad. Who would’ve guessed that market speculators are going to see if they can push you around and if they can will punish you relentlessly. Warsh failed the leadership test by not being able to guide the FOMC to look past market expectations and lagging data.
>>62697911Ok baggie
thats why u buy bio protocol, because biotech is getting started hike or bike
>>62697107>fed chair is wrong>fed governors is wrongkek you people really are deep in the cult. Bessent is a midwit that's deep on the dunning-kruger curve. He thinks he can outwit the bond market with his inept """"intervention"""" Tariffing and starting a war against Iran of all countries when you're 40T in debt AND got elected on inflation worries is beyond retarded. Anybody still on the Trump train ought to have their voting rights revoked unironically. The nice thing about bond markets is that they are indifferent to your retardation. the Fed had no choice but to raise rates
>>62698368we dont have inflation we have an energy shock, shlomo
>>62698381yeah generally speaking killing the ayatollah in a surprise attack mid-negotiations will cause "energy shocks" weak b8
>>62698405no shitthats what I said
>>62698411what's inflation? Give me your working definition
>>62698420accelerating price increaseshowevercore inflation is at the lowest its been in 5 yearthere is no inflation problem, there is an energy problem
>>62698429do energy shocks accelerate price increases?
>>62698441>do energy shocks accelerate imaginary price increases?
>>62698441nobecause core inflation is stableholy shit you people are utterly retarded
>>62698573>energy shocks aren't inflationary>because their inflationary impact hasn't shown up yetI could get lobotomized and I still wouldn't be as retarded as you. Just another reminder that MAGAts are hostis humani generis and should be treated as such.
>>62698589high energy prices destroy demand in other placesand are thus already negative for the economyhiking interest rates is utterly retardedyou want to destroy the exconomy even more?yes, thats what you want
>>62698609what other places retard? find me a single other place for demand to "escape" to that's insulated from energy prices.holy shit why am I feeding a troll
>>62698787hu what?are you asleep at the wheel or what?fucking McDonalds is struggling
