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Weekly close above the 50W + a higher high, so I'd say about a 99% chance the bottom is in

>>62711559
Let me predict anons future posts
>80k -- should I buy now?
>90k -- should I buy now?
>100k -- should I buy now?
>120k -- should I buy now?
>150k -- should I buy now?
If you aren't buying now then you're a pussy and you were never going to buy and it aren't ever gonna make it

>>62711575
>>62711591
when would you guys start selling?

>>62711575
So an analysis on a sample of 3 gives you a 99% chance?

>>62711600
Anyone who gives you a number is lying. If you're retarded you're better off just holding onto your stack forever and accumulating every bear market instead of trying to time the tops and bottoms. Only sell when you reach your make-it-number, or buy-a-house-number, or whatever it is you need money for

>>62711610
Yeah, let's just ignore the higher high as if that's irrelevant to the equation

>>62711559
55k was the theoretical bottom, so 60k is a perfectly reasonable materialized bottom.

>>62711623
I am not saying to ignore anything, but last cycle a couple of well know indicators went to shit, most notably pi cycle, yet somehow this one is rock solid. Generally I would agree with you, as it seems everybody tries to front-run cycle, but I don't get that kind of certainty.

>>62711613
is that actually better? would hate that btc shoots to 150k in 2 years, then back to 85k where I bought, which means I made 0 in 2 years (less if counting inflation)

>>62711575
So this is why some say the bottom in october idea is dead? Unexpected events aside.
Wasn't banking on it especially with how many times I've seen assets take off and ignore the market, but it's not like I could explain why people were saying october either.

>>62711559
.9

>>62711600
$2 million BTC and $50k ETH unironically.

>>62711688
What does the global economy look like in a world where that's become true?

>>62711575
Your picrel is missing 2012 where it also crossed.
>>62711656
>last cycle a couple of well know indicators went to shit, most notably pi cycle
That's because hitting an MA that's multiplied by a constant is very hard for a large mcap asset. Even if BTC kept pumping at 2023/2024 pace until forever it would've never hit these indicators because they measure blow off tops aka acceleration. Those don't happen for large mcap assets because they move slower.

>>62711665
That's greed talking.
Truth is most people lack both the ability and discipline to reasonably time the market.
I've never attempted to time the market for that reason, just DCA to infinity with whatever money most people would typically throw into retirement accounts.

Also worth noting that 4 year cycle theory might have just been completely obliterated, so previous laddered buy/sell strategies may no longer apply.


t. HODLer since 2015

>>62711980
do you think it's worth buying btc at this point over index funds? I'm all in index funds right now and I never check anything, just auto dca. I was thinking maybe 90% index funds 10% btc and never really checking it

>>62712038
I quit my job and early retired last year because I remained >90% allocated in BTC for over a decade while ignoring every bit of "reasonable" financial advice offered to me.
In hindsight that was obviously the right call, but having that kind of conviction isn't easy.
I've watched my net worth plummet +$800k during a bear market before without flinching, could you do the same?

No one can decide what your risk tolerance is but you.
My only advice would be, if you're relatively young and have a decent stable income then NOW is the time in life to be taking risks with investing. Whether it's Bitcoin, tech stocks, or whatever.
By the time you're older, maybe with a wife and kids, you won't have the same kind of leeway for making ballsy bets.
Currently, Bitcoin is still widely considered a high-risk speculative asset. By the time it isn't, well, you'll have missed whatever gains there were to be had prior to then.
Personally I'm not interested in diversifying my portfolio because I have zero faith in the financial markets as they currently exist. I've always treated Bitcoin less as an investment as much as an inflation resistant savings account, it just so happens it made me wealthy at the same time.
YMMV

>>62712116
>Currently, Bitcoin is still widely considered a high-risk speculative asset. By the time it isn't, well, you'll have missed whatever gains there were to be had prior to then.
Is this some 2017 copypasta? BTC is fucking 2 trillion dollars.

>>62712253
Ask any random normie on the street if they think investing in Bitcoin is a good idea.
Most will probably say some shit about crypto scams, how they "missed the boat", something to the effect of it being irrelevant, or how they don't really "get it".
I know because I still have conversations like that with people all the time, we're still very early.

Institutional acceptance /=/ widespread mainstream adoption, that's the distinction.

>>62712297
do you own anything else or just strictly btc? If I were to buy an alt, it would probably be hype

top signal

>>62711559
>Best to just buy now instead of waiting longer?

Holy fucking shit tards were saying that when Bitcoin was $5

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>>62711613
>holding onto your stack forever
Retard alert. Buy low. SELL high.

>>62712297
Most normies don't understand anything about investing, and even less about a specific asset class. If a C programmer goes to the streets and asks random people "what's your favorite C library" and people can't answer it doesn't mean C is "early". If there were news/social media articles about C just like there have been about crypto scams and monkey NFTs that's all they would know. And people who do invest mostly buy BTC because they want exposure to "crypto" without understanding any nuance within the asset class. They read stablecoins and tokenized stocks are getting popular and think it's good for Bitcoin.

>>62712308
Just BTC.
I made a small speculative play on ETH in 2017 while having zero faith in the "tech".
Ultimately flipped it for 25X returns or something a couple years ago with the BTC ratio was favorable and immediately converted it.

BTC is already a high-risk high-reward play, alts just exaggerate that dynamic to the extreme.
You make a bad pick, there's no guarantee you won't fall prey to sunk cost fallacy and end up losing your ass entirely.
People don't think it'll happen to them until it does, I know from experience.

I've given this exact advice to people I know IRL in the past and have watched them lose their asses vs BTC.
You might "only" get 10-20X returns with BTC over the next decade or so, if that isn't enough for you then at least recognize that what you're engaging in is essentially playing the roulette table. Allocate accordingly.


>>62712435
I'm not talking about the financial or technical literacy of the average Joe, I'm talking sentiment and utilization.
"Early" in this context is referring to TAM.
There was a time when using email was relegated to research and financial institutions. Now literally everyone uses email, they don't need to understand what it is in a technical sense or the underlying principles, grandma just knows she can use it to send pictures of her cat or whatever.
My implicit argument is that BTC has the potential to become as commonplace as email to the average normie. It already is in countries that have undergone complete fiat collapse.

>>62712490
What gives you such conviction in BTC? I know it has the network effect and a cult following, but can't feel it's been fucked with the association of Trump/scammers, along with there being no privacy to transactions as opposed to XMR. I feel maybe 10% of my portfolio is fair enough just so I don't feel the itch, but I can't really imagine 100% compared to previous years where people thought it could revolutionize money.

>>62712490
How does it become a backbone for finance when its development is ossified and in the past 10 years all its progress has been SegWit and Taproot? The user experience is the exact same as it was in 2017 with the only exception being less people using the chain so fees are lower (still on average one dollar). Lightning has been a total shitshow for 10 years and afaik there isn't anything better coming. Take my example of stablecoins and tokenized stocks. None of that is on Bitcoin. I agree crypto in general is still early but all Bitcoin does is store of value and simple (expensive) payments.

>>62712545
>the association of Trump/scammers, along with there being no privacy to transactions as opposed to XMR
At any given time in the history of BTC there's been some kind of prevailing FUD narrative, yet here we are.

>What gives you such conviction in BTC?
There's no simple way to answer that. I was sold on the premise of BTC as far back as 2011 when I was mining it with my crypto-anarchist buddies.
The idea being complete financial sovereignty.
No matter what the banks or governments decide, they can't seize a 24 word seed phrase from my mind. They can't inflate the sum of my life's work into nothing by printing.
My wealth is essentially global, and there's practically no means that can prevent me from taking it anywhere I please.
There's methods for converting BTC to XMR via atomic swaps if you need the added anonymity.

It's not the full answer, but I don't feel like writing a novel.

>>62712643
>but all Bitcoin does is store of value
That's all it needs to accomplish to be a viable alternative to fiat and other financial assets.
To be clear, I don't see a world where BTC acts as the backbone of all transactions. There are plenty of other cryptocurrencies that can perform a better job of that on a separate layer.
However, if we make the argument that eventually most/all currency will be held as digital currency, then there is a role for one that operates solely as a person's savings account.
The network effect is real, and while there may have been doubts with the previous forks, BTC has thoroughly cemented itself in that position.

Fundamentally my "bet" has always been that financial conditions will increasingly deteriorate as awareness and adoption of BTC simultaneously expands.
21 million, the rest is just a predictable consequence.

Yep, that's an LLM

>>62712801
I'll take that as a compliment I guess
Believe whatever the fuck you want, I assumed the questions were sincere and responded in kind
If I weren't geeked off my ADHD meds I wouldn't have commented in the first place

>>62711559
>What's the probability that 60k BTC/1.5k ETH was the bottom
61.7582618%

>>62711876
utopic. central bankers no longer lead it.

>>62712830
Wow a series of quality posts from this anon. Such a rare thing to see on biz these days. Wise words.

I had my share of follies through 2016-17 but pretty much a bitcoin maximalist nowadays with a little bit of chainlink for the infrastructure play.

>>62711559
>What's the probability that 60k BTC/1.5k ETH was the bottom?
100%

>>62712830
LMFAO bro respect. This guy 100% knows what’s up. Steady lurkin since 17.
And to OP yes that was the bottom. It’s blatantly obvious once you’ve been through a few cycles how btc moves. At the same time like broski here said timing the market is like deathly hard. It’s better to just hold/dca/cash out when you can buy a house.
Also buy doge and Pepe like today for some sweet returns on the alt run up to the halving ;)

>>62711600
Never.

>>62712768
The problem with this all is that BTC’s price hasn’t really moved since 2021. A very risky play for what seems to be a 2x at most. You beat inflation with indexes too.