How bad is the French debt/deficit crisis going to be?
>>62742551I don't get how france is so nationalistic and pretentious yet they ruined their country. Those videos of the black immigrant ravaging a white Parisian on an apartment floor with the balcony open is a microsm of their situation
>>62742563>Those videos of the black immigrant ravaging a white Parisian on an apartment floor with the balcony openwat
They're either doing full austerity which will trigger mass unrest or if Le Pen wins she'll just default on the debt and the country burns harder than Greece
>>62742563France is the original globohomo countrythats why theyre allowed to be "nationalistic"in reality its meaningless flag waving for the centralised globohomo state run from Paristheyre very different from the rest of Europe
>>62742563They are in deadlock thanks to their boomers. Boomers are the biggest demographic and also have higher voter turnout, so they own the government and vote for increased taxes on productivity and high pensions which kills the economy.They will default before the boomer relinquishes their grasp.And might I also take this moment to advocate for total boomer genocide by way of torture to death?
Love France it’s going to cause the collapse of the euro when France defaults the eu central bank will print because there is no one big enough to bail them out. This will cause my gold and silver to moon in real terms. God bless France for having so much debt.
>>62742551I have seen this event about France shitting the bed everywhere this week.
>>62742822Cause higher debt to gdp than Greece when it shit the bed. France so big Germany can’t bail them out. It is legit going to be the death of the euro as a currency.
>>62742551this is done on purpose, they want to destroy any hope the country has to escape from the EU, and macron's cabinet of globalist homosexuals is about to take the mlost massive debt ever just befor he leaves office
>>62742842Okay but how does this not cause the euro as a currency to collapse? No euro no eu.
I have many reasons to hate France. I will rejoice if France falls and French people suffer.
France is not a European country anymore. See pic related
>>62742827They can print their way out of it. As long as you dont hold euros you should be fine.
>>62742889Okay but if they print their way out of it won’t it be hyperinflation this time?
>>62742909There will be austerity because this time the debt is too big to be paid off. The next eu sovereign debt crisis I think is the last cause the euro and EU won’t exist.
>>62742899Is the only way out. At this pace all major currencies will behave more like the argentinian peso. It has happened before like in the 70s when the developed world had double digit inflation for years.
>>62742909I repeat, inflation is the only way out. Devalue the debt in real terms.
>>62742921You losers confuse 2-4% inflation with 190% inflation. The fear in your incel brain dooms you to poverty
>>62742563France is weird in that it's "nationalist", but not really for the French nation. It's more so French culture above all else.
>>62742551Spent too much on pastries and wine
>>62742921Can’t wait to see French people eating donkeys like Argentina people because they can’t afford beef
>>62742640At least, the 45% of taxes that went to boomers allowed them to enjoy their senile lives in comfy cruising and flute lessons.
>>62742563>yet they ruined their countryFrench boomers are entitled cunts. Heck all frogs are entitled cunts. All that debt goes to indexing pensions of 60yo retirees, who expect their income to keep growing for the next 20-25 of life, and maternity gibs where little froglets get paid for breathing till their 18.
>>62742889If I understand things right, the EU can decide to print more money, France cannot
>>62742567Le Pen won't defaultMelenchon is talking about it, but he won't be elected anytime soon. And he probably wouldn't do it even if elected
>>62742551About as much as when the doomposting was about Italy a few years ago: fucking nothing.You now remember the Monte Paschi del Siena bank doomposting.
>>62742563Being French is not about your skin color.
I visited France 2 months ago. Took a cab form the airport to the hotel. My room wasn't ready and I was knackered so I sat down outside. 5 minutes after sitting down, a bunch of arabs came and asked me for money. 10 minutes after that, some other arabs threw some stones at me. What the hell. You can't even sit down outside. Everytime I sat down somewhere, someone would come and ask me for money. I just wanted to go back home. My fucking holidays ruined.
>>62743256if they default on the debt the precedent that sets for other euro countries is incredibly dangerousgreece doing it was one thing and they had to simply submit to the punishments placed on them but france is supposed to be a leading nation not just in europe but of its entire cultural sphere worldwide>>62743175it's amazing that boomers everywhere are happy to set fire to their countries and even fan the flames to demand more
>>62743298> if they default on the debt the precedent that sets for other euro countries is incredibly dangerousObviously, which is why the EU will do everything it can to prevent France from defaultingBut it seems like it's already over. At the very least, France is at the entrance of a debt trap and no major political party is willing to do anything about it
>>62743298Default isn't enough to save france. Total explicit and implicit debt if accounting for future pension liabilities is ~520% of GDP. It's over.
>>62743298> it's amazing that boomers everywhere are happy to set fire to their countries and even fan the flames to demand moreYou know we blame the jews here and we're ultimately correct - without jews, boomers wouldn't have a piper to followBut think about it for a secondIf you removed all the jews tomorrow, the ground is still fertile for jews 2.0 to come in and lull the boomers into the false sense of security they so love. Boomers will happily sell whatever remains of the country and the future to whomever promises them unending good times and carefree spending.If you removed all the boomers, jews would not last one month.Jews make it happen, but the real responsibility lies on the boomer. The boomer sold his land and his progeny to the devil, willingly and knowingly, for yet another cruise and yet another motorhome trip. They know what they've done. I knew everything was fucked when I was 16, they have know all the way. They just don't care, because they're above the consequences of their own actions.That's the definition of evil, if you ask me. Not immoral, but incapable of morality.
>>62743319Debt isn't even a problem. Only retards think it is
>>62743334Debt sustains a negative feedback loop which is inherently problematic. Interests and accrued liabilities slow economic growth and vice versa. Cutting taxes requires to default or to negotiate payment modalities which is unlike in conventional political contexts as it would take time for the financial-industrial complexes to heal. Unless, of course, AGI disrupts traditional concepts of finance.
>>62743361Word salad. Deport the 20 million parasites, problem solved
>>62743375It's obviously needed for other reasons, but it won't solve the debt issueWhat costs the country the most by far is pensions. And old people are the ones who vote the most so going after them is a political suicide
Blaming a specific generation is shill divide and conquer tactics, previous generations vote for a choice they only know exists because a man on the tv showed it to them where as a young person votes for a choice they only know exists because a centralized tech platform showed it to them. The machinations of the monetary system and financial systems extend far beyond this simple shilled divide and conquer point of “it’s muh boomers”
>>62743490It's divide and conquer, but the issue doesn't come from blaming. Boomerism is weaponized against new generations.>>62743375Sure it would help but retirement pensions are massive relative to other social allowances. Most boomers cumulatively earn more than twice their contribution, so it's not a fair distribution either.
>>62743490pensions literally created an economic time bomb and they still vote for more of themit's widely accepted that young people now will not receive the same social benefits without even mentioning mass immigration>because a man on the tv showed it to them oh i guess that completely absolves them of accountability thenwhat i gather is, you're a fascist?
>>62743710mass immigration is the other side of the anti-young people coinOur rulers decided to destroy our countries/civilizations and its almost finishedBoomers collect a working persons salary in benefits, they don't give a fuck that the under 30 demographic is 50% white
>>62743710>and they still vote for more of themWho does? The people don’t manage this shit, they vote for representatives who do, one of two choices that are both corporate sponsors? How are young people to clean up this mess? Vote for one of two corporate sponsors as well?
So when the fuck are we all doing this war?
>>62742551Considering there are barely any baquettes left in France, it will be bad and neverending.
>>62743490Shut the FUCK UP and get out of the way, boomer.
>>62742872because the end goal is to eliminate border and eliminate all countries inside the EU bloc.They want to use this crisis to steal all the assets from france (one of the richest country inside EU), and the remainder will be just empty land with dumb inhabitants, so they would just be able to disintegrate the country.It won't work because french people will fight it at the last moment, and their country belongs to the christ
>>62742872you are talking to retards who are trying to deflect from France being a failing communist shithole"the french" are responisble for this and noone else
white french people are the niggers of french people.This is why they survived and will survive everything that destroys the continent
>>62745927*the niggers of white people
"french people" dont even existthe entire country is made up
>>62743285Yeah, but most of the brownies/blackies aren't French.. Maybe they will become, or their children will become, or maybe they will make up an increasingly large percentage of the population until they, the non-French, are the the new people of France.
>>62742608Like the UK, it's a dualistic nation. 70% are fanatical descendants of the original leftist movements (it comes from French revolutionary parliament), 30% are engineers, mathematicians, and the same kind of people that Napoleon made generals out of. Human capital is there, floating atop a sea of filth. They have an independent nuclear trident, nuclear power, their infrastructure projects are faster and cheaper than similar Western European countries', and they are home to important scientific institutions. By contrast almost all Germans, Austrians are cucks.
>>62745964Ive never seen a measure by which "France" is relevant in anything
>>62745944Actually yes they are, most are children or grandchildren of migrants, not migrants themselves
>>62742551They just need to import 10,000,000 more arabs and niggers and their debt problem will solve itself
>>62742827Germany didn't bail out Greece they bailed out their own banks who borrowed to Greece massively. Those banks knew full well how bad the situation was as those banks were the ones that helped Greece cook their numbers enabling them to join EMU, but they did it anyway because they knew they would be bailed out if things went badly. Same deal here with France shitheads enjoyed the benefits of high rate bonds for past decade and now that shit is blowing up they want to socialize their losses to EU taxpayers and I bet Ursula is more than happy to comply
>>62746468the banks that helped Greece cook their numbers were americansbut keep lying, Panchoand the banks had to take a haircut on greek debtanother liebut anything to not admit that Germany bailed out greece
>>62742563Link those videos so I know to avoid
>>62745964>engineers, mathematicians, and the same kind of people that Napoleon made generals out of. Human capital is there, floating atop a sea of filth. They have an independent nuclear trident, nuclear power, their infrastructure projects are faster and cheaper than similar Western European countries', and they are home to important scientific institutionsThis alone is not enough for success. The Soviet Union had all of this + a huge amount of resources and still collapsed.Modern Russia has all of this and also a huge amount of resources, and how is that working out?>>62745972Airbus, Alstom, nuclear energy... France is very strong in terms of engineering, it is one of the most advanced countries in Europe. Few countries have all the technologies that France has.
Just crash the euro is all I ask. I want 0.5 eur/usd and I want it now.
>>62743253correct.there may be printing presses in France, but the EU is quite strict about how much currency it allows each country to print.
>>62745964>their infrastructure projects are faster and cheaper than similar Western European countries',how is hs2 working out?
>>62742551italy here
>>62742889>>62743253The ECB can decide the "print money". It is still nominally independent of the EC / EP. As of right now the ECB is quite vocal on the fact that this is not irrational market action but in line with the (rather shit) French fundamentals. The ECB is clearly going for the stick and then the carrot. Indeed, if it would pull TPI out of its ass now the French will just hang back again like they normally do.This immediately poses a problem; France has elections next year and the right and left are both doing good and either will be a disaster for any future French budgetting credibility (for different reasons). Also good to know that France has an absolutely terrible track record and has proven to be unable to reform even in the best of times (artificially low interest and good economic conditions). The budget Lecornu presented yesterday is rather lackluster and won't even stabilize the debt (best case scenario is a deficit of 5%). The French codemonkeys of the finance ministry have already said that everything needs to work out to stick to a 5% deficit in 2026 - 2027. Commically shit.Not only that. The budget contains almost nothing structural. Its mostly postponing harsh choices another year so the next (ideally more legitimate) government can deal with it. Effectively kicking the can down the road again. In the meantime financing costs of the French mountain of debt are ballooning (8 year average maturity). Greece and even Italy could be disciplined. France clearly cannot. They still retire far too early and far to rich. The government is absolutely huge as a % of GDP and growth is nearly nonexistent. France is too big to bail and too big too fail in the eurosystem. I do not see how this will not become a shitshow.
>>62746749At least with the Greeks they could hide the pain on balance sheets. Also Greece was a peripherial poor state so people were much more willing to pitch in a bit. Wholly different from modern France.The financing need of France is so big that there is no way to shift the pain in time or dissipate it over a large group. The credibility of the euro will be on the line, contagion will happen. Haircuts will hurt institutional investors (like Dutch pension funds). We are all going to bleed for the fucking French - probably while they are lighting their own infrastructure on fire in a yellow vest because they need to retire at 65. Honestly pathetic. This might hurt French pride more than the debacle of WW2.The EU is all fun and games but the idea that we are "stronger together" only holds up when you have trustworthy sovereign states like the Nordics. When you have crack junkies like France in your midst we are as weak as the weakest link.
>>62746749lots of words but, are we talking money printing to hopefully raise salaries while pensions gets "deindexed" over next 15 years? a way to slash them without having to publicly do it?So risky to try this, money printing just goes to assets, not workers, so it goes to boomer
>>62746829TPI is a the most obvious choice. It's an uncapped program of the ECB where they can de facto break the pact of not directly financing member states (there is quite a strict key normally). However, TPI can not just be invoked. The country needs to show progress towards consolidating its debt and a reform plan. The program is mostly meant for when markets get "irrational". Of course what that entails precisely is left in the middle as we are used to with similar EU programs. Check some Lagarde interviews of the past days. She is quite vocal on the fact that: markets are not irrational, France's outlook is terrible. Suggesting that the ball is in France's court. TPI would be sensitive. If they start buying France debt to keep spreads managable (it is not meant as YCC) why not also buy Italian, Spanish and Belgian debt? Their positions are not good either. You can see the slippery slope here.I think the ECB will be very reluctant to intervene. At least not before the next elections. The fact that TPI exists and is on the table itself already surpresses spreads and I think they hope it will be enough to keep things managable.TL;DR: TPI or outright monetary financing might happen but first they will try the stick to force France's new government to make credible steps. The big question is if the situation remains manageble until then and if the next government is willing to play ball (unlikely with Le Pen or Melenchon). I have been following this shitshow for a while and the writing has been on the wall for years.
>>62746852Also good to know that Lagarde was French finance minister from 2007 to 2011 and as such herself responsible for this debacle. I think for optics the ECB would rather activate any purchasing program like TPI under new leadership (which conveniently would be chosen before the French election as Lagarde wants to step down early).
>>62746859Since I am bored at work I will continue my rant.All those people hoping or preparing for the printer. PEPP and QE are discontinued. So the ECB would have to set up a new program to do so. However, the situation is very different from the credit crisis or Corona. Inflation is high and the ECB has been tightening to keep it down. Setting up a new QE program right now just to keep French debt manageable would be an extremely stupid move.I think the following options might be on the table:1. TPI: if Lagarde starts talking about "irrational markets" and how monetary transfer is getting fucked this will be the next step2. Extending cheap credit to French banks: right now the crisis is on the government balance sheet but if it starts hitting the banking system this could be on the table3. ESM or OMT: when shit hits the fan and France remains in political paralysis this could be an option. However, its got a lot of strings attached going as far as a Troika (see Greece). Doubt the French would accept that. Honestly could result in a Frexit or something retarded like Melenchon "cancelling" French debt4. Only when contagion happens and France drags the whole union down will QE be an optionThe fact of the matter is that printing money would buy France some time but only reforms can put it on a sustainable path. The catch-22 is that printing will give a perverse incentive not to reform.
>>62746918Very good posts anon
>>62746918>reforms can put it on a sustainable pathThey plan to reduce deficit from 5.4% to 5% in 2027, but they already have riots, lmao
>>62746999CheckedThat makes this whole debacle extra explosive. I don't think Macron did well but at least he tried. He tried increasing the pension age with a watered down proposal and he just couldn't do it - France would burn for days. They have been without a proper budget for a while since they just can't agree on shit. At least now the cat is out of the bag and something needs to happen. Will it be enough to finally force the painful steps needed? I doubt it..Realistically the only place France can save a lot is government worker numbers and social security - mainly pensions. Both incumbents with a lot sway in the electorate. And to save the amount needed (100 - 150 billion a year to get in the black) A LOT of pain needs to be passed onto somebody. Other than that there is little room for manouvre:1. Going after immigrants; even if they would ignore international and EU law and go hard there is not that much to gain here in immediate sense. A few billion on reducing handouts and kicking people out but probably at the cost of even higher crime, homelessness and other social problems. 2. Tax the rich; sure we all know how that goes. People will just shift their money across the border and companies will just calculate the costs into their pricing forcing up inflation and cost of living. Certainly not free money.3. Convert ECB / BdF bond holdings into eternal 0% debt: very illegal and would probably do more harm than good as it obliterates not only French credibility but the credibility of the eurosystem4. Collectivise debt in the eurosystem (ie. print or selectively buy French bonds to suppress rates): would be illegal under current treaties unless part of TPI or ESM (involves heavy intervention). Politcially dangerous as frugal populists can say; "we have our shit together and are now paying for France reluctance to reform" while French pupulists can say: "The EU has no democratic mandate in France and can't tell us what to do with ex. pension age"
FRENCH BOND ROUT APPROACHES EURO DEBT-CRISIS LEVELSFrance’s 10-year yield spread over Germany widened to 152 basis points, reaching levels not seen since 2011 as fiscal and political concerns intensify.Candriam CIO Nicolas Forest says French debt is now trading near European debt-crisis territory, warning the deficit could approach 6% of GDP.Potential ratings downgrades in October could add further pressure, while Forest cautions investors may not be able to rely on the ECB to contain the selloff.
>>62747074To conclude on that: France has made it far doing what it does. See this graph: https://tradingeconomics.com/france/government-budgetI think it was allowed to keep going like this for far too long. Special treatment by the EU, artificially low interest rates, COVID and all crises of the past decade(s) are all reasons that contributed to this. The fact of the matter is that France has been living beyond it's means for decades which allowed it to have a social contract that is far too generous and simply not feasible in the modern world. Now they will need to reap what they sowed. The EU and ECB can't print or borrow their way out of this one and they know it. No hiding this one away on a balance sheet for future generations to pay. Actual pains needs to be taken and the longer they wait the more painful it becomes. The social contract needs to be rewritten fully.I do not believe the French have it in them. At least not before they drag the whole zone (and my fucking contribution based pension) with it just so they can finance their extravagances a little longer.>>62747086The day old budget can already be flushed down the drain
the only problem with france's economy is that they give 30 billions to the EU budget every year, and the EU only give them back 15.And all those shit eastern countries that france helps prop up then steal french factories from france thanks to their low wages and the EU's satanic open market.France will raise again only once they have killed the EU and nuked germany and poland
FRENCH 2-YEAR GOVERNMENT BOND YIELD EXTENDS RISE, LAST UP 13.8 BPS AT 3.8337%its happening
>>62747175Maybe the best solution really is to not rebuild the schools
>>62746608Airbus is half german, where do you think the german aerospace companies went?and nuclear energy is nothing specialeven Ukraine has that>"french engineering"pic related
>>62746558>>62742565They used to be posted on /pol/ a bunch
>>62743294>I expected my room to be ready on time>in franceYou were lucky they didn't shove a Gitane up your arse
>>62742551The biggest problem is that the government has no political room for maneuver to fix the budget
>>62746749It is very possible to QE, they just have to blame the inflation on something else.I have been expecting a fuel crisis to hit the EU hard since the Us secured Venezuela and started shit in the ME with oil infrastructure getting fucked no stop and with Ukraine destroying refineries in Russia.Now the Us is forcing the Eu to put their diesel reserves into the market. Is the only thing that makes sense considering the whole line of events. The Euro currency has to become something like the argentinian peso for a while.
>>62746918they will print because if france defaults the rest of the EU follows.
>>62747074just reduce pensions but they can't do that since boomers would riot and no votes. Money printer is the only solution they have now.
>>62748348Germany will never agree with printingthis just means the end of the Euro and the end of Germany having to drag the rest of the commie shithole continent along
>>62748358Bro germany doesn't have to consent for the ECB to print to bail out France. The goyim will go along with what their masters want.
>>62748358Germany will do whatever they are told to do. Like a good bitch.
>>62748013>even Ukraine has thatit was built in soviet era. have they build any new nuclear reactors since 1990?
>>62742563I love how we blame the symptoms but never the Jews who are responsible for destroying all of these white countries. Also love how on the Indian poopnigger infested anonymous internet, you only hear posts ragging on France and the UK, when Canada is objectively worse in every way- but in Canada everyone would immediately blame Indian Hindu invaders, so strangely enough, none of these anonymous posters want to discuss Canada.
>>62746608France is not some utopia waiting to be fixed. All I meant was that it does have some potential, some human capital, which is unfortunately drowned in piss. Sorbonne is supposedly still a top global institution for the research of mathematics. The best must leave for the US.
