the FED went full retard ever since 2022 in reaction to a transitory inflation problemthats why the housing market is keeling overthats why the labour market is strugglingthats why economic growth is lowand now theyre even hiking into an energy shocknever go full retard
>>62750175So you think it's hard to make real money, is that it?
Agreed. Fed is making inflation worse in the long run by killing off investments and capex into actually making more houses, more commodities, more energy, etc.They think they can control supply with their rate lever. Fuck em.
the FED is hiking into falling wage growththe retards should be cutting rates insteadcourtesy of Steven Van Metre
>>62750179the spice must flow
>Why is the country that owns the world economy preparing for post consumer economies
>>62750181They need to have something to lower in a crash.
the shitskin nigger world must suffer until it collapses. fuck you niggers.
>>62750175If spending were cut the long dated yields would fall quite a bit, I believe the GOP are waiting until after the mid-terms to talk about it and do it but by then they might not have the legislative power to push through the cuts. This action alone would greatly reduce the probability of the global sovereign debt crisis that is rapidly approaching.
>>62750496Spending cuts are impossible
>>62750496What cuts? To the defence budget? Lol lmao even
>>62750175... housing isn't just 'keeling over'. The iran war has caused prices of lumber and transportation to skyrocket. Contractors and home builders are getting wrecked, and housing prices will continue to rise despite it being a supposed buyer's market. The whole system is imploding and it will get real bad, real fast. In 2027 people will realize how fucked it all is but it's too fucking late. It's way way worse than you said. This is economic Armageddon.
Banker hereThere are several largish (200m+) real estate loans in our portfolio that have moved to special servicing because they are var rate loans taken out during covid at 2% and are now at 7%They aren’t in danger of a default but their debt service coverage ratios have fallen below acceptable levels and now they are being forced to refinanceIt’s nice for us for the fees but I am betting more than a few more f these loans in other areas of the country aren’t doing so hot
>>62750829This is why I never got into investing in commercial real estate.Don't lever, returns are shit.Lever up, your interest rate resets in only five years and if it went up you are forced to refinance or sell at the worst possible time by DSCR covenants.Eff that.
>>62750815How is that bad?. Housing market going to the moon. Boomers will be rich. You make it sounds like the end of the world. When it's actually the golden age for Boomers and their real estate investment.
>>62750866If you have to ask you'll never know.
>>62750175GDP and corporate profits are way above trend but these are largely artifacts of financialized chicanery (tariff refunds, circular financing, OBBBA incentives) while the labor market suffers from negative real wage growth and net job growth is concentrated in gov and gov-adjacent sectors. Ultimately they’re trying to resolve the sovereign debt problem by manipulating the GDP growth rate to improve the debt to GDP metric at the expense of the average normie. But in juicing these metrics the bond market reads the economy as “overheating” and responds by demanding a higher rate for capital, assuming there’s more demand for investment capital than supply, driving inflation expectations.Neoclassical economics is past its EOL date since capital bought out the legislature, has been draining the treasury (PPP loans, OBBBA tax cuts/capex incentives, increased gov contractor spending - specifically military contracts for obsolete hardware) and now after acquiring this capital through the treasury’s deficit spending is demanding a higher risk-free rate of return on the spoils. In doing so the bond market, ie capital, is forcing the Fed to hike rates into a slowing real economy (housing/labor), laying the cost of this looting at the feet of the working class. Boomers are demanding a Volcker-response to handle inflation but the Volcker shock obliterated the productive economy in the US, ushering in complete deindustrialization in favor of the financialized fake economy Millennials/Zoomers have been subjected to. The “good times” brought about, supposedly, by the Volcker shock were actually more accurately attributable to the massive debt expansion (read: money creation) under the Reagan administration. Boomers were bought off by cable news convincing them their 1500sqft ranch house is actually worth 10x what they paid for it due to their foresight and not the wealth pump of money creation that favors asset holders in a financialized economy.
