Listen to me. I'm the biggest bull on /biz/there's nobody here more bullish than me. Nobody. So take what I'm saying seriously. Depending on how you take this, what I'm about to say can be interpreted as bullish. It's bullish to me. For most people, it's going to sound bearish.The bond bear market. This isn't just some ordinary event.it's quickly becoming the worst bond bear market in history.And it's not just America. It's happening globally.Almost every developed country,most of the world. China is basically the only country not in a bond bear market. This isn't some normal bond correction. We've never seen anything like it,andit's serious. Rates have been rising like a central bank trying to clamp down inflation by raising short term rates. Except banks aren't doing all this raising. It's the market. If a central bank raised rates, it's ceremonial.This is happening just as sovereign debts are becoming untenable. Coincidence? No.This is the debt crisis you've been warned about for decades playing out.Right now. Right now.this is the bogeyman they warned you about if a country gets too into debt. France has already reached crisis levels. We're going to watch countries one by one, reach crisis points. In the near future. If there's no dozens of developed countries in debt crisis within five years, I'd be surprised.Happening. Right now. I'm dead serious. And I am never bearish. I'm a super bull. And it's not going to happen the way bobos think it's going to happen.Now, I don't know how long this is going to take to play out to completion, or the sovereign debt crisis to peak. It might be a couple years to peak, it might take a decade to peak. I don't know. I jut know we're at the beginning of it right now. We're in it. You won't see it until we're well into it, or out of it.
At this point, you probably expect that I'm going to say countries are going to default on their debts. Actually, no. They don't have to default when they can inflate, and the levels that debts are at,they'll need to inflate, lets say, significantly to ease sovereign debt burdens.Many people in the developed world are about to get their first taste of what real inflation is like. Not hyper inflation, no. Well, maybe a few countries will hyper inflate, but that's my expectation here.It's going to be terrible if you're not prepared. Get out of cash and bonds, and get out of companies with low pricing power, (like staples and utilities). Staples dumping as badly as they are now isn't just some coincidence. If you're prepared, this is an opportunity for you to make a lot of money. money that will be less valuable, but you'll make a lot of it. AND TAKE ALL THE FUCKING DEBT YOU CAN TAKE TO DO ITYour. Country. Is. Going. To. Be. Forced. To. Inflate.and they'll act like they have no control over it the entire time. I don't know how bad the inflation is going to get, but, again, I don't expect hyper inflation. I'm betting it's going to be pretty bad, though.
>>62763669How to profit from this? What's the optimal play here miss anime girl?
>>62763669Let's say I'm a fucking retard with 401k, t-bills and shitcoins. Wat do? Wat sell? Wat buy?
>>62763672Short bonds, staples, utilities, and REITs.long gold,long commodities, and commodity producers,and companies with monstrous pricing power. You can identify them because they do business to business as their clients. Consumers struggle under inflation, but if it's a company with other businesses as clients, they'll pay any price. There's going to be a lot of companies that thrive under that.
>>62763677If you just have SP500, or whatever, or VT, or whatever, you'll do okay. Any assets are better than cash or bonds. The stock market will be booming along with inflation
>>62763669>>62763670nice.
>>62763669Are short term govt bonds going to work as a liquidity buffer? Think XEON. That's basically an alternative to a too locked down HYSAOtherwise gold, stocks, or anything correlated to inflation will keep its purchasing power, I guess. Problem is the govt wants 26% on all gains here, so you're effectively losing 26% to the government even if your assets match inflation.Plus, and that's the real problem, the government use this as an excuse to massively increase taxes and potentially do confiscations. Normies will cheer to that, they mostly have nothing or just debt, so fuck everyone that actually saved and saw this coming. When that happens there's no hedge, unless you want to go gold bullion (which will likely be made illegal or taxed to death) or XMR (which is in practice illegal already)What do? It's clear that no matter how much picrel they employ, 5% on 10yr is not survivable for the dollar, and the euro rates will match that soon enough. Running away is not an option, unless you want to sell everything and go to Thailand or something.
>>62763678>>62763681Wat about crypto?
>>62763689you could doa side bet on crypto and self cutody, and dont keep it in an accountdont go all in on crypto, thoughstocks,gold and commoditi,and crpyot
>>62763696> you could doa side bet on crypto and self cutody, and dont keep it in an accountwell that's equivalent to gold bullion in a way. Which has the same issue - you're effectively making the choice of getting completely out of their system. They will not let you trade with assets outside their control that can't be taxed or confiscated at will.I guess there's no solution to this anyway, except dropping it all and going to SEA or somewhere beyond their reach. We're all so incredibly fucked I can't even describe it properly.
>>62763702they dont need to confiscate your gold and cryptowhen they can confiscate the hundreds of trillions of dollars n circulation by inflationcashbaggers and bondbaggers are the ones they put on the chopping block
as wellinflation will not only ease the debt burdenit will help with paying out entitlementsso that entitlements are less of a budget burdenI don't really think people understandgovernments in the developed world,and high debt nationsare going to be forced to inflate. They have no choice.They could have started cutting the budgets years ago, but it's too late for that now. They won't cut either, and at this point it wouldn't make much of a difference if they did start cutting in 2026.Inflation is the one card they have to play.And it's the last card they have to playthey have to play it.
>>62763669>>62763670>says buy stonks>not gold>not silver LolLmao
>>62763734>Short bonds, staples, utilities, and REITs.>long gold,>long commodities, and commodity producers,>and companies with monstrous pricing power.
>>62763669>crisis you've been warned about for decades>Black SwanYou don't even know what Black Swan entails. >>62763719>Inflation is the one card they have to playAlso retarded. Have you not been paying attention? They want to completely dismantle the legacy fiat money system and replace it with a blockchain/digital ID system that removes "lag and lash" according to one of the Rothschilds circa 2011. Epstein files confirm this plan. The Black Swan will be the Cyber Pandemic memes that rug the normies' bank accounts and farm their consent for the total surveillance state and also get buy-in for WW3 depopulation agenda.
>>62763689>5% on 10yr is not survivable for the dollarwhy? it was this high 20 years ago and much higher 40 years ago>>62763737>Short bonds, staples, utilities, and REITs.what are the tickers on hyperliquid i need to short, its the only place i trade
>>62763742> why? it was this high 20 years ago and much higher 40 years agoWell, in case you're in good faith40 years ago the US was an industrial juggernaut, an uncontested military leader, the petrodollar was king, and the nominal debt was about 1TToday, the US has lost about 80% of the industrial base compared to the 80s, gets its ass kicked by sandniggers, petrodollar is dying and nobody wants to buy treasuries anymore, and the nominal debt is more than 40TThere is no scenario where the US dollar survives without the FED going full SSJ3Volcker, we're talking hiking rates to 25-30%, and keeping them there for years. Imagine the consequences on an already contracting real economy. Interest alone would be more than the federal budget.Do you need a drawing or is this enough?
Is it a good time to get a fixed rate mortgage, as inflation will dilute it? Or is there some reason to avoid mortgages now?
>>62763742>why? it was this high 20 years ago and much higher 40 years agoInterest rates were higher in earlier decadesShort term interest ratesbecause the Fed was deliberately raising short term rates to crush inflation back then.That's completely different from what is happening now.Now long term interest rates are explodingthe Fed does not have direct control over long term rate slike they do short term ratesso the spread of short term rates and long term rates are spreading rapidly.and the Fed DOES NOT want long term rates to continue rising.look at the spread, not what shot term interest rates were at 20 and 40 years ago.There weren't debt concerns back then. Even in the GFC, when the Fed was raisingshort term rates to what they are nowlong term rates weren't even increasing. They were flat. Now, it's long term rates completely out of contol. This is a different beast, and a beast that America never had to face.
>>62763765if you actually have a good deal, go for it.butbond rates can take a long time to play out. We might hit 7% in 6 months, or it might take 2 years.If rates continue rising as they are now,houses are going to get cheap. Real estate is already in a lot of stress from rising rates. Real estate is one of the most interest rate sensitive sectors,and the reason it's some sensitive, is the exact reason that you want a fixed rate loan. What do you think happen to the bank holding the fixed rate bags? They struggle.
I'm staying in at least 80% cash and TN28, with the rest in commodity indices and bitcoinHistorically in this situation the commodities peak comes long after the equities peak. Broad commodities are already up like 40% and at ATH, so it is insane to go all-in now before some indication that governments actually are going to inflate their way out
>>62763795>before some indication that governments actually are going to inflate their way outHow about the fact that they’ve done it repeatedly over the past 16 years, every single time cracks began to appear in the financial system? There is no reason to believe that they’ll suddenly change course now and take the consequences on the chin when they’ve been unwilling to do it while the consequences were much less severe. Sitting in cash now is pure insanity, lmao
>>62763795in the scenario I'm describing,cash is the worst thing to be in>government announces we're closing the banks for a day due to liquidity emergency>caused by a debt crisis panic>there was a liquidity crash in the markets, they're down 40% from highs>you suddenly find your bank and brokerage account is locked>all cash>you cant buy assets>government fixes the problem>allows you to resume control of your account>you suddenly find your dollars are worth 80% less, stock market is up 500%>equity prices to gold barely even budged, but up 80% over the dollar>problem solved
>>62763795Classic rookie mistake of betting on what the government should do, not what they will do
>>62763669I dont know what any of those terms mean you fucking dumbfuck.>Blonde bear bullish bear bondsDid an LLM type this?Bonds are for old people, they all expired 2008 crash as far as im concerned, everyone lost credibility so why let them hold your money?
>>627636691. Stocks and RE are not an inflation hedge, PMs are.2. Due to the uncertainty of the timeline you can't just sit on cash for a decade.3. You gotta take into account economies collapsing because people are fleeing.My answer is short term bonds, gold, and strictly central commercial RE. Around 1/3 each.
Cool blog post op! Too bad you will never be a woman
>>62763669This nigga is right u know
>>62763817>>62763876I'd like to have Gold but this chart is pretty dubious. What is the best way to take delivery of it? Say $50k
>>62763955Buy one ounce bars or 50g bars through 10 or so separate orders over the next few weeks from reputable dealers
>>62763669100% stocks here, 30% amplified BTC in ASST shares at $15 avg. 60% in Ai data centers. The sooner you reognize and embrace the printing game the better folks
>>62763967My main issue with the gold is the difficult liquidity. Lugging a bunch of gold bars to some dealer and hoping to sell for a reasonable price when i need to actually use my money is kind of ridiculous compared to nearly every other method. I know boomer are retards but obviously BTC should be serving the role Gold does for that reason alone. Don't give me any bullshit about 'intrinsic value' I actually understand the world and don't care this isn't religion it's about ducking inflation and maintaining the ability to move and access the money as needed.
>>62763989yeah that's my problem with it toolike I have some silver (maybe 30k worth) and wanted to liquidate it when it hit $120 earlier this year, the problem was that no one would take it for that price and even the websites that you could ship it to had like a two week backlog, so I said fuck it. Really pissed me off because I wanted to use it to invest in something else that mooned before I could sell it.
>>62763669shut up retard
>>62763828I'm hedging my bets as it is always a mistake to invest based on predicted government policy. Hyperinflation without deposit interest to match is definitely a prediction
>>62763689>XMR (which is in practice illegal already)I don’t think it’s in practice illegal *yet* but probably not far off from that. In any event there is active research on DEXes to trade XMR which should be ready soon. That would make any illegality effectively unenforceable.If anyone is interested in highly scarce digital assets as a way to counteract these economic factors, XMR is the obvious choice.
>>62764070It’s not a hedge. You are betting 80% of your money on the assumption that governments will suddenly stop doing what they’ve been doing since the GFC in 2008
>>62763669so many fucking words...>>>/r/eddit>>>/r/eddit>>>/r/eddit
>>62763669Did you write out all that shit yourself or did AI do it?Now, from what I understand, certain world governments, particulatly the USA amd China, seem to have shifted to resource control and the gradual burn of stagflation, rather than economic clout through printing. So, I predict the bond bear will get worse. They won't start printing until the financial system starts to cease up. But, even then, it might require trump to be gone because he seems focussed on invading countries for their resources, rather than printing money to buy the resources.
>>62764070This is smart. The problem with govt jews hyperinflating is that the debt is in large part owed to them and their caste. They're not going to voluntarily reduce the value of all of the loans they are on the other end of. We could well see something more radical. What is certain is that something needs to shift in the USD financial system.
