Midterms EditionKnown current platforms:polymarket.comkalshi.comalphaarcade.com
So I just threw a shitload of money on Paxton to beat Talarico in Texas. Gemini (Polymarket curated subset) has Talarico at 41% odds, BUT there are good reasons he's going to kick the shit out of Talarico:1. black voter turnout is dogshit because the jungle bunnies are pissed off that Jasmine Crockett didn't win the primary, and2. some unknown group just mailed out tranny literature taken directly from a Texas troon advocacy group's website to a shitload of the parents in Texas.In case you hadn't heard, Talarico really really loves trans kids. He's said so on multiple occasions. Like, he's seriously into the whole "I love those little trans kiddies with their tight bussies and budding sexuality" thing. Like, dude, put it back in your pants, you creepy perverted sicko, they're kids!So some group, presumed to be Republicans, decided to make sure that parents are up in arms about the "we're cumming for your kids . . . to get them to cut off their dicks and tits!" issue. Picrelated is #2. The contents were taken directly from a Texas troon advocacy organization's website, and are all 100% truly representative of what the pro-troon groomers side believes and wants. The Democrats are flailing around about how to react; they can't bitch about the contents because that would indicate that they're disgusted by their current favorite "victims" group, and it's not really possible for them to lie and claim that the contents aren't representative because the contents were taken directly from the troon group's very own website. About all they can do is seethe and whine about how it's unfair to "out" them to sane parents who weren't paying attention. Meanwhile, parents are seeing these brochures addressed generically to "The Students of the _____ Residence", opening them up, and becoming horrified and incentivized to vote against Troon-Lovin' Talarico.I think this is gonna put Paxton over the top, and the payout is nearly $2.50 for $1 bet ($1.50 profit).
I also bet on Hotwheels to win, because he's going to.And I threw some shekels (actually $50) on Lula to beat Bolsonaro in Brazil because the odds are 25% (bet a buck, get $4 if Lula wins, net profit $3). I don't know if Lula has an honest chance, but four years ago he won through massive vote fraud and I don't think Brazil has cleaned up the fraud problem. If he cheats hard enough, I make $200, and if he doesn't win, then I'm happy because it's one more nail in the coffin of LatAm communist fucktards.Viva Pinochet and free helicopter rides for commies.
Lastly, here's a blast from the past (May 19, 2026):https://warosu.org/biz/thread/62233513#p62249509> If anyone wants an almost total lock that will get you a 1.5x on your bet, here it is:>> https://kalshi.com/markets/kximpeach/president-impeached/kximpeach>> Current odds 67% that Trump will be impeached before January 1, 2028. Which is stupid because the odds are 100% that it will happen. The Dems are going to retake the House, and they have already promised repeatedly that they will file for impeachment. FFS during his first term they impeached him THREE TIMES in the two years that they had control of the House.>> Now, the Senate isn't going to have 67 Democrats seated to vote to convict him, but that doesn't matter, he's still impeached as soon as the House votes to impeach him.>> The only ways this doesn't win are: (1) somehow Trump pulls a miracle and the House remains Republican (which the redistricting in the wake of that Supreme Court racial gerrymandering case might accomplish, but it's still iffy), (2) Trump drops dead before any such vote is held, or (3) there's sneaky wording in the specific terms that make it contingent on conviction or space aliens landing or Zombie Jesus rising from the dead.>> Note that this is on Kalshi so if Trump were to be assassinated I think they would void the bet. [...] Also, I don't know what they would do if he keeled over of natural causes, but I would expect the market to be allowed to resolve normally as a "no" in that case. Right now, odds are almost zero that the Republicans will keep the House. Trump shows no signs of dropping dead. Someone else back then also reviewed the terms and agreed with me that there is no sneaky wording.There is some risk that the Dems will drag things out for over a year, but I doubt it; they've never shown any patience before, and they can always impeach him repeatedly just like they did during his first term.
>>62813549Oh, just to add, another reason it WILL happen (and probably almost immediately) is the Iran War. The Democrats are hopping mad about Trump violating the War Powers Act and bombing Iran without the consent of Congress. Once they have control of the House, they're going to be moving fast to throw tantrums over that (and good for them for doing it, fuck Trump and his "go die for Israel, goyim zogbots!" bullshit).
