As someone who's not well-versed in AI, how much of it is actually truly transformative and how much of it is hot air? I've got some friends in mathematics who are seriously depressed after the Jacobian conjecture got disproven because their jobs might be at serious risk.On the other hand, i also hear people getting fired and replaced by "AI" which is worthless and just leaving the remaining employees with more work. What's your take on it? Where do you see AI in 5-10 years?
can't predict 5 or 10 years because ai moves so fast. quite a lot of jobs are probably at risk. which? not sure.
>>109477938Holy shit they put an allosaurus in space?
>>109477945with ai yes. and it can obviously be done better.
>>109477756I can only give my perspective as a software developer and I think it will (or already has) completely changed how people work.I buy into the narrative that it is another layer of abstraction, as compilers have been in the past.Regarding 5-10 years prediction, I think our jobs will revolve mostly about harness engineering, loop engineering or whatever you wanna call it. Basically writing scripts to run LLM cronjobs.
>>109477756It will absolutely mean the number of openings for mathematicians declined very rapidly. The students are right to think they won’t get jobs. This plus funding cuts means it is over for most of them. The ones who do get jobs will unfortunately be forced to compete by producing huge amounts of work with LLM assistance.>t. mathematician, unfortunately
>>109477756Sounds a lot like someone's homework essay assignment...I prefer not to answer this shitpost.
>>109478024Mathematics were never a mainstream market. You don't know shit either.Maybe in the US you can be a "mathemacian" if you aren't sub 90 IQ, but elsewhere in the world it's a very niche area for gifted people. Statistics != mathematics.
>>109478051I recommend at least spelling a word you’re putting in scare quotes correctly if you want to tell me about my own job, and maybe waiting until you’ve learned to read too.
>>109478071quant is still hiring
>>109477756Likely the biggest global recession of all time.However, they'll probably introduce UBI (universal basic income), so you'll be allowed to vegetate in your 5x5 feet cage while struggling to get water, because another AI datacentre will be built next to your block. Billionaires and trillionaires will own everything. Nothing on the internet will be real anymore. Several jobs are safe, for now, but they'll be quickly diluted, because mathematicians, teachers, etc. will quickly re-train themselves into plumbers, street sweepers, etc. With the oversaturated market, it'll be difficult for anyone to get a job.Future is so bright I don't need my eyes to see it.
>>109478051You've got such a small penis that it's unbelievable, and I'm not even someone who likes maths or mathematicians.
AI is going to Make Mathematics Great Again!!!
Once they build the first T800, it's all over.
>>109478250Maybe, but from what I hear everyone is saying all the usual non academic jobs are also getting extremely competitive. When I referred to funding cuts I meant the actual academic system, rather than some other mathematical job. The lack of funding plus AI is likely to kill careers for a lot of people. I think it’s unlikely LLMs don’t eventually have a similar level of impact on at least some other jobs, although this might be an especially good environment for them.
>>109477756>depressed after the Jacobian conjecture got disprovenThis was Anthropic's marketing response to OpenAI's original marketing strategy of presenting "proofs" for some mathematical problems. Even on the Wikipedia page for the Jacobian conjecture, it notes:>The correctness of the counterexample is easy to verify with any computer algebra system. It has not been revealed, however, how it was found. Nevertheless, it led some mathematicians to elaborate on the mathematical reasons and the implications of the existence of the counterexample.Levent Alpoge is also a skilled mathematician. Even if his counterexample found with Fable turns out to be valid, it's more demonstrative of the fact that the operator of an LLM needs to know what the fuck they're talking about to do anything productive with it.I've been a professional programmer for almost 10 years now and my biggest concern is people new to programming are increasingly retarded. They don't know what the fuck a STACK TRACE is, they just copy/paste shit into Claude and hope it spits something out that works.I use LLMs at work and stay up to date on new model releases, and like to try running different models locally. The more you use LLMs the more you realize what exactly they're useful for, and the hype surrounding them (largely from people who don't use them) just becomes fucking insane to witness.Just yesterday Fable 5 failed to vertically align 2 fucking buttons for me. LLMs as a programming tool are here to stay and can definitely be useful but I very much fear a future competency crisis for programmers.
>>109478393off-topic but does anyone else think the T800 is the coolest fictional machine ever made?
>>109477756Nobody knows for sure. You will sometimes see overconfident CS people who think they know everything just because some parts of the transformer rely on matrix multiplication and the (first) training objective is to predict text, but turns out these things actually imply very little. I wouldn't place too much weight on the predictions of those who are well-versed in AI.I'm a mathematics master's student, and I'm part worried, part not. It's true that AI is starting to deliver some impressive results which I wouldn't be able to do myself, but mathematics isn't just that. It remains to be seen whether it can conjecture/intuit and introduce new concepts rather than just proving or disproving theorems.I think mathematics, like software engineering, is "AGI complete", in the sense that to really solve it end-to-end, you need to develop a human level AI, at which point all white collar work would be over anyways. AI can reduce the demand for certain jobs without being human level by making the top performers more efficient, but still I think the effect would be similar everywhere.If I had to guess, in 5-10 years we'll get there.
>>109478565Humanoid robot? Yes. Machine? No. That'd be an Eva unit or giant robot, portal gun etc
>>109478830Hi,> If I had to guess, in 5-10 years we'll get there.I ask to be sure I understand you. Do you mean to say that in 5-10 years, we'll have human-level AGI that matches or exceeds the absolute best world-class human experts in mathematics/software engineering?Kind regards,
>>109478830>borderline toddler who learned to stand on his own 2 days ago scared about job prospects in math after learning of the calculatorseems legitWhy are mathfags always the single most profoundly retarded demographic? Aren't mathtards supposed to be smart?
>>109479855>Do you mean to say that in 5-10 years, we'll have human-level AGI that matches or exceeds the absolute best world-class human experts in mathematics/software engineeringYes. I do not have any real arguments though, it's just my opinion. >>109479974I'm not scared, read my post again.
>>109481899Forgot to mention, I am not very confident in my prediction because we probably need at least one more breakthrough to reach AGI. LLMs have a memory problem. They can remember things you said within their context window, but forget completely as soon as that context window runs out unless you update their weights. Updating the weights is an expensive, slow and difficult process unlike whatever happens in our brains. Things like LoRA exist for this reason, but these techniques are closer to temporary hacks than a real solution. I doubt that the core learning algorithms will be optimized to the point where they are as fast as our brains soon. But maybe we can still get better memory through some smart context window fuckery, like storing a compressed non text-based representations of the history in the context window.
>>109478981>Evauh not a machine
AI is really good at making professionals feel worthlessYet ironically, won’t be able to make any meaningful NEW progress without them
>>109478013>I buy into the narrative that it is another layer of abstraction, as compilers have been in the past.its not a layer of abstraction since it is not deterministic. You are probably indian codemonkey, so not a software developer, just an incompetent bungler.
>>109478051>Statistics != mathematicsyou are not gifted.
>>109477756The progress in 5 years has been staggering. The question is can they continue to make progress at a reasonable rate given throwing more compute and more data at the transformer architecture seems to be yielding less and less gains in performance over time. Also the cost barrier is going to be a major issues for these frontier companies in the future. Once they no longer have enough investor money to subsidise the cost of gpt, claude etc price has to go up to fund this. I've heard 4x from current prices is around the mark they need to break even, don't hold me to that though. Given a price increase of that level you're pretty much at the same level as just paying a human and the human in theory doesn't take your data and use it for their own purposes.
>>109485635it also makes retards feel smart and professional (they are neither with nor without AI)
>>109477756>Where do you see AI in 5-10 years?In 5-10 years I see PhDs in math becoming useless considering AI would just keep solving unsolved math problems
>>109478356>However, they'll probably introduce UBI (universal basic income), so you'll be allowed to vegetate in your 5x5 feet cage while struggling to get water, because another AI datacentre will be built next to your block. Billionaires and trillionaires will own everything.Most Billionaires and Trillionaires have their wealth from stock/equity. If AI causes mass unemployment those stocks are gonna tank. I don't see how they would remain Trillionares or Billionaires
>>109477756Buy an ad
