>>109798315
The rate at which thing are progressing I doubt if there are gonna be any human coders after 3 years. If computer use also gains enough progress in h5 years its en of all white collar jobs

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>>109798315
Yes.

AI shits out unmaintainable slop but it works
I guess it really doesn't matter if it's unmaintainable if humans don't need to touch it in the first place

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>>109798333
cargo cultist

>>109798315
yup. but not for ai-related reasons
unless you live in bengaluru

>>109798315
We answered this a million times, yes it's dead. It was already dead even before AI.
Get into pluming or healthcare (if you can handle dealing with a bunch of foids and their drama). Whatever you do, just don't pick CS

>>109798350
>I guess it really doesn't matter if it's unmaintainable if humans don't need to touch it in the first place
A fraction of the existing manpower is enough to maintain it using AI

>>109798360
Lol even in bengaluru it's dying buddy. Have you not read news about the mass firings in India and reduced hiring there too? Though not as bad as in US.
https://m.economictimes.com/tech/information-tech/top-five-it-firms-cut-nearly-7000-jobs-in-fy26/articleshow/130510007.cms

Traditional coding will be dead as a career, yes, but it’ll take quite a few years while businesses integrate AI architecture to their existing systems. Once it happens, people will still do it as a hobby like woodworking or knitting. And the new tech jobs will be configuring and managing systems of agents.

>>109798360
>yup. but not for ai-related reasons
>unless you live in bengaluru
I'll be honest I'm a jeet and things aint rosy here either. Companies can make do with less number of employees each quarter and hiring has slowed down a lot

>>109798429
>https://m.economictimes.com/tech/information-tech/top-five-it-firms-cut-nearly-7000-jobs-in-fy26/articleshow/130510007.cms
yeah nah
"
Ongoing demand uncertainty, slower client decision-making, and increasing use of AI-driven efficiencies have all contributed to tighter headcount strategies.

Scale-driven growth to a skills-first model

>Hiring has not fallen back to FY24 levels, but the overall trend still points to limited clarity on growth. Back then, the sector had seen a sharp contraction of over 69,000 jobs.
"

agi in 2mw and so on

>>109798315
No
>t. 11 year career programmer

No, but it is shrinking. There is no need for a low/mid IQ code monkey or grunt programmer anymore. It will be all higher IQ seniors who operate on more of a jack of all trades basis. They will do the analysis work, planning, implementation, testing, and deployments/infrastructure. It's already been heading this way. AI makes the meat and potatoes of coding quicker but it honestly was never the bottleneck.

>>109798441
yeah, thats what happens when you hit market saturation
it stands to reason llms help with efficiency too

but to say things are over thats retarded
youre just used to a boom phase cuz its all you saw
its a dynamic that already existed post covid

>>109798360
Sorry to burst your bubble but India is in a massive youth unemployment crisis right now, especially in the engineering sector. That's why you're hearing so much news related to anti government protests coming from that country right now.
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/educated-but-unemployed-inside-indias-broken-jobs-market-and-why-the-cockroaches-are-fed-up/articleshow/132808216.cms

>>109798315
Yes. There's a couple things happening.
1. People really slack off in these companies, I'm talking real slackers. Musk was unironically right about one thing, it doesn't take 10000+ people to run a company. You can reduce a company's headcount by 70% and after a couple weeks of lag, you'll be back to routine operation.
2. This was obvious but they over hired during covid.
3. AI is giving some gains it has definitely made coding cheap and increased some amount of productivity, which again reduce the number of people required to keep systems up.
Unless we see new companies, and new jobs being created. We already have a oversupply of developers, and it's going to get worse because of "everyone should learn to code"

>>109798350
It will matter once errors start compounding. We're already seeing this with microslop products and the general degradation of software quality across the industry, once corpos start trying actual no-human-in-the-loop workflows it will REALLY go to shit. There's a reason they didn't manage to outsource all dev work to India years ago, and it's the same reason AI will fail to eradicate coding

>>109798466
yeah but it sectors are usually isolated because theres an actual barrier to entry
your it sectors slowdown is 100% a matter of intl market dynamics, not a domestic problem with unemployement
unless its because of incompetent intl market policies
but then id be expecting this being a larger crisis than the 2023 one
which coinicides with a contraction of the it market in the isa iirc
thats the relation, im saying

rn your it sector is less impacted by widespread unemployement bc thats how the it sector works

>>109798466
>>109798491
btw, is this a problem of industrial modernization/automation
or trade wars with idk, china?

>>109798434
>It will take a few years while businesses integrate AI
OpenAI and Anthropic don't have a few years, if they don't start producing trillions ASAP they're dead in the water

>>109798445
These companies used to hire like 50000-100000 per year back during covid, now it's down to 20000 per year. I don't know why /g/ is memeing that Indian IT sector is alive and booming lmao. Anyone living in that country knows the absolute shitshow right now. In fact quite opposite if you talk to people actually living there, not cherrypicked screenshots of job posting in India.
https://www.reddit.com/r/developersIndia/comments/1vv3zqh/got_laid_off_from_microsoft_yesterday_with_3_yoe/?utm_source=app_first_navigation&mweb_loid=t2_2jp169wwu0
It's more like these companies firing 10 people in US, then posting those 10 job openings in India while firing 100s of the workers already working there.

>>109798511
I don't know man it looks like these VCs have infinite money. The bubble doesn't look like its popping anytime soon.

if it is really done for. What can you pivot to easily and make enough money to live?

>>109798532
Any role where you have to plug physical things is still not dead in the water yet.
I guess a network engineer or something relating to hardware?

>>109798462
>but to say things are over thats retarded
idk anon, the performance gains from chatgpt 3.5 to now has been immense. LLMs went went from shitting the bed after 20 lines of code to now handling vast codebases. Its not perfect but the corpos are happy if it all just werks

Even if progress on LLMs stalls now it still seems enough for companies to continue lowering headcount with what is currently available. However LLMs continue to progress and they get better harnesses and optimizations that make the writing on the wall pretty clear at least to me

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>>109798513
>source, reddit
youre gonna have to do better than that

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/indias-tech-workforce-gets-another-jolt-oracle-is-cutting-around-3000-jobs-while-microsoft-puts-about-500-employees-on-pips-as-companies-shift-budgets-towards-newer-skills/articleshow/133678507.cms

apparently its a competency churn
>indians
competency churn meaning they eliminate everyone who wouldnt be there in the first place
*oracle says its because of ai
'sounds better than "getting scammed by thousands of people for years" and noticing it only now because yorue a bloated corpo and you strt cutting costs because of your ai-lmaoo investments

sure, llms may play a role in this, but this really doesnt sound like a wagiepocalypse

>>109798509
The reason for high youth unemployment in India isn't due to a particular event. India couldn't become much of a manufacturing based economy and found its growth in the service sector in which IT/Tech jobs was the biggest domain for growth. So India over indexed on it and with AI will be severely impacted since other sectors havent really grown as much

>>109798580
youre just not pushing llms hard enough and thats why you dont see the fissures

for instance, i use mine to research maths
i could also do a good job at generating code using even a local model im sure

but its a technology, with its applications and limitations
maybe its good enough to apply paterns to things like databases and such
i dont know, i always avoided webshit like the plague

but whenever actual code of actual quality is needed
the things just under-perform
and in either case theyre not good enough to operate autonomously, anyways

and you need such code in more places than you'd suspect. like your fridge, or your car. or in vidyaslop. or os'es
and i say that without a paradigm shift thats how its gonna be, incremental improvements here and there, but everything will tend towards performing at 66% lets say
good for some but not for others, like pretty much everywhere where actual code and actual quality of code is needed

>>109798315
Fixing code that fails test suites is the only coding job left anon

>>109798641
The real blackpill is corpos have never cared about code quality.
They only care about profits.

>>109798530
Doesn't seem like it to me, they're going for IPO because the private market dried up. VCs started demanding their ROI

>>109798601
i dont think thats whats happening.
ai is involved, yes, but in the measure where western companies, THE clients of india's it sector, are now tightening the belt because theyre all in on ai infrastructure and everyone is starting to run out of money
i think thats whats happening

although maybe the agentic focus of astra will have a large impact on a large segment of the market now that i think of it
all it lacks is a voice to text module and i could really see it become a force multiplier
its too soon to call the actual impact of that advancement, i dont think theres enough adopters yet

>>109798666
Satan is right

>>109798675
>ai is involved, yes, but in the measure where western companies, THE clients of india's it sector, are now tightening the belt because theyre all in on ai infrastructure and everyone is starting to run out of money
>i think thats whats happening
This is accurate for the current situation. Also these clients are trying to open GCCs in India to see if they can save even further than low cost Indian IT vendors by hiring cheap Indian IT labor directly. However these GCCs are hiring only a fraction of the the people getting laid off in India

>>109798666
nah, yeah, i knew about that
but better code = smaller chip
and smaller chip = better margins

quality of code is not "off" by default
its the result of the consideration of "how big of a chip we need to run it, its cost" vs "how much will it cost us to improve the code to run on a smaller chip"
this translates into servert code etc, as in: better programs can be deployed on cheaper compute
and agent might admin a database but its a human thats gonna be at the core of writing it

dw, im talking about this in marketing mode now

>>109798315
Coding is cooked and transgender

>>109798641
American car companies would not recall cars with severe defects that could kill people if handling it in court was cheaper. You really think corpos give a shit about code quality? Have you not noticed the quality deteriorating each decade

>>109798490
Most of that's intentional because they know Linux still sucks ass and they can get away with it. Macbook Neo is the only thing worrying them right now.

it's cooked bruhsir :cry: :rose: only cracked jeets from IIT will earn zilllions in IT now ser :broken_heart: just put the fries in the bag SON :cry: :cry: :water_gun:

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>>109798709
its really tough to call just how much ai is a factor in all this
a huge portion of the people who werent rehired could have been fat to cut off in a way or another
cf. twitter and elon's cuts
9000->1.500
in the other article i posted microsoft were clear that its a competency shakedown

they kinda cant mention ai cuz theyve been seen forbidding its use to its workers

and given my experience with shatbots, and what i know about the technology
all in all, i think ai has had a very limited impact until now (if we ignore retard early adopters who ended up rehiring their staff after a couple months)
and for the astra model's impact were gonna have to wait several months, so that people have the time to adopt it, integrate into workflows, and the job market reacting

>>109798724
Maybe for microslop but every piece of software is hot garbage right now, not just Windows. Every single app is bugged to fuck

>>109798723
calm down and read carefully:
if 50k worth of manhours of code quality can reduce the production costs of a 1.000.000 run items by 5 bucks
then these manhours will be invested into it
its how things work. this is how money gets made

if you are studying to work in tech, you are a fucking RETARD and will end up with crippling debt, and you will have successfully ruled yourself out of any skilled work because you wasted time on that.

do not study CS, do not waste time in tech, do not enter tech unless you know people who will hire you.

It's simple arithmetic. There are only jobs for 2-4% of CS graduates today. If you're not top 1%, why bother? There are many other pursuits with a far better reward to effort ratio.

>>109798441
>I'll be honest I'm a jeet and things aint rosy here either.
That's implying your literal shithole had some better time instead of being the extinction level event of humanity.

>>109798315
No, I dont think it is, LLM generated coding is very expensive. In my small company the developers all have $20 codex plans, and in this month alone the tokens they used at API pricing would cost $3200, in not really willing to pay to oAI $10000 extra as the performance is pretty much the same, despite the code being sloppier and the developers losing the grasp on the codebase (I can see it already on code reviews with frequent code duplication, and so on).
Also, I tried it myself, if you tediously guide the expensive model (Astra) you can get some ok results, but if you want to be "cheap" and use something like Lua or Terra you quickly see that they are useless.

>>109798906
skill issue + plus it's gonna be 10x-100x cheaper for current level of performance this time next year

>>109798935
>10x-100x cheaper
>in 1 year
you sound mentally retarded, cargo cultist

>>109799209
10x is already guaranteed by Rubin, Cerebras and Jalapeno
100x is plausible with algorithmic gains and distillation as shown by smaller models catching up

If we're being positive here one of my favorite improvements with AI is finding/fixing bugs. It seems really good at it and that's a pain point that it clearly solves without any regression. Feed it an error log and any other context and it's mint at triangulating the issue and offering a fix.

>>109798364
>>>>>>>>>>>"we"
Every response starting like this can be safely ignored.

>>109799221
>10x improvement in energy efficiency
imagine believing that
it has to be because youre mentally handicapped

>>109799221
10x cheaper? That would be hard to achieve. How do you explain Astra and Fable 5.1 being more expensive than their predecessors? Check the "cost per task" on Artificial Analysys.

>>109799322
hes a victim of a debilitating cognitive affliction
he probably was sniffing petrol as a kid
and took the habit with him into adulthood

>>109799348
I try to be reasonable but all the AI guys really seem to be cargo cultists that believe in infinite prosperity somehow? produced by a chatbot glued to a for loop.

>>109799403
a portion of them are trolls from an altchan
but they cant account for the reddit brigades, which in turn cannot account for the wider media response

theres a wider martketing push for chatbots
which is kinda fucking retarded, the technology is uncooked yet
so theyre gonna blow their load now and the research will staganate again because money will dry up

now we might be already at the desperation stage, idk how much more money they can throw into the pit

>>109798315
Yes, it's dead.

It's awful code that only barely functions enough to pass a test. If you want to rely on that, go ahead, none of you will ever finish more than 15% of a project so why does it matter?
Just stop posting your slop everywhere.

>>109799403
>>109799444
buuuuut...
...that said...
the couple demos i saw with astra do look promising
this does look like a product one could sell-
a sort of smart macro for office work
maybe the whole 3d modeling thing too

but thats in the capacity of an ai agent, the llm as a force multiplier but certainly not autonomous

>>109799444
>>109799492
cont
and to really make it work they should package the thing into local instances
because with the recent math paper fiasco information leaks are much more present in the normies heads

>>109798315
>give it to me straight
low-to-mid tier code, yes. State-of-the-art algorithms that rely heavily on first principles construction are still untouchable afaik.

>>109799550
i think the bar is even lower
i would be surprized if chatbots can produce coherent, project-wide optimizations
i wouldnt call it state of the art, though. just competent, quality code

>>109799492
The demos are nice indeed, but they're just that, demos, mvps. If you want to turn them into "ok shit you can sell" that will be a few more tokens, and naturally problems will appear (as they do even with human handcrafted things) how are we supposed to solve these problems if we have no deep knowledge of the system innerworkings? This could be something like "this 3d asset has too much poligons" or "this specific websocket event is arriving at the wrong order" Could we just prompt the solutions away? Don't seem to be the case, at least for now, as we have barelly any robust "vibe-coded" software.

I agree that it's a force multiplier in some cases, especially as a search engine, but that isn't revolutionary or lucrative as the LLM companies now need it to be.

>>109799582
>if chatbots can produce
*cant'T

>>109799582
Just yesterday I did some work using Astra. It was really good at producing example implementations of the sort of algorithms I need which is great because without AI my manual workflow would've taken probably weeks. It started to stumble when I gave it things that don't really exist in public code, and bear in mind I have very stringent performance requirements. Now of course a regular dev would also fail if required to do the same thing with no context. So it seems knowledge for which there is barely any training data is still a formidable moat for both AI and humans.

>>109799587
>but that isn't revolutionary or lucrative as the LLM companies now need it to be.
thats gonna be a hard filter for most of them
i expect companies that have either other sources of revenue, like google meta, msft;
or companies that had a much narrower focus like perplexity, to survive
danger zone- anthropic. i wouldnt be surprised if they survive, nor if they die
theyre amongst the big players but theyre the ones the closest to break-even afaik.

and then openai. i woudl expect them to die before astra
now with a focus on agentic workflows, this might change things for them
its new, i dont have access to that model, i think the reasonable thing is to wait 2-6 mos before emitting a definitive opinion
2mos needed to evaluate the product by the public id say
and 6mos to undeniable effects of the technology on employement dynamics, to definitively close the subject

>>109799667
ah, so basically same old chud gpt i guess
i heard a couple things that basically boil down to:

astra hes been worked on with a focus on agentic work
one of the key highlights is that its token usage is 70% lower compared to previous models

but in what concerns programming it ranks pretty close to the competition and is not a major departure from past performance
in a couple rankings it ranks even lower than previous models
but myeah, again, 70% less tokens which is the most impressive gain in this alongside the agentic part imo

so theyre getting somewhere product-shaped it seems
and this may change things
so id be careful about forcasts

its still a bubble but things may turn out to be less catastrophical than the worst scenarios