Germany and Japan didn't have much of a naval tradition either when they started out in the 1870s, but they were giving other major naval powers as good as they got within 20-30 years. The USN was weaker than South American navies like Chile for much of the 19th Century until the buildup of the 1890s as well.So, what exactly is the precondition for a "naval tradition"?
Getting your ass kicked enough to figure one out or buying/importing one. The PLAN has done neither yet.
>>65182091Just watched a russo-japanese war documentary. It's funny how their plan then was to pearl harbor the Russians at port Arthur, land some troops to make retaking it untenable to recapture, then negotiate before they get btfo on land. Honestly makes sense they'd try it with the US again with how quickly the Europeans pressed Russia to roll over for them in that war.
>>65182091In regards to the late 19th century, the build-up of naval armaments was more of an expression of fear of an impending Malthusian doomsday clock. In short, the world was running low on nitrogen as a key component in fertilizer, and millions of people were probably going to starve. The best hope of any nation in that day and age was to sail the South Pacific, find an island covered in bird guano, stick a flag on the island, then defend it with any and all ships until you die or the guano got sent back home. This was official US policy even before the Civil War. I wouldn't be surprised if we learn that resource shortages for things like lithium drives any present naval buildup.
>>65182110What will be the technology that invalidates this Malthusian scenario the way the Haber process did for marine bird shit and the Green Revolution did for the actual Malthusian theory
>>65182113Coal. Nuclear?
Amerifats like to claim that the PLAN has no experience fighting a major naval war, but the US Navy has never had to fight a peer opponent in its entire history either
>>65182091Japan had the advantage of being able to fight a naval war on training wheels before challenging the US.
>>65182091>Japan didn't have much of a naval traditionNigga what?
>>65182121>America is so much better than everyone else that it is literally peerlessYes.
>>65182121>american revolution >1812>spanish american war>ww2 pacific theater>entire cold warMeanwhile China has never won a war let alone a naval battle
>>65182141The sum total of Japan's naval tradition prior to the Meiji Restoration was getting assraped by Koreans while trying to futilely use boarding techniques as if they were fighting at Actium or Sluys
>>65182120>Coal>NuclearI like how these are the actual answers for the energy crises of the mid 2020s
>>65182154In fairness to the Japs, boarding actions were still a major element of naval warfare in that period and was only just starting to get displaced at that exact moment by the cannonade as the decisive factor in ship to ship combat. They weren't that far behind the curve
>>65182091Japan's naval tradition extends all the way back to the Mongol Invasions and was expanded off the Wakko pirates.
>>65182121>the US Navy has never had to fight a peer opponent in its entire history eitherDifficult thing to do, when one does not exist.
>>65182091According to Britroach naval historian Andrew Lambert, the US is not a naval power at all and lacks a true "seapower culture" unlike the UK, Netherlands, Venice and even Japan, but is instead a continental land power for which naval power is ancillary and non-essential, and in which it is fundamentally disinterested. In pic related, he insults America several times thusly:>"In the Cold War the sea occupied a marginal strategic role, a ‘flank’ to be secured and a supply line to be protected. While contemporary America possesses a vast military navy, it thinks and acts like a land power. Britain does not.">"After 1956 Western sea power was reduced to the collective effort of medium- sized sea states, led by the wholly continental agendas of the United States.">"The US neither needed nor wanted a global sea- control navy, but it was most anxious that Britain should not have one. By cutting the scale of British naval strength the Washington process reduced the strategic weight and diplomatic impact of naval force in world politics between 1922 and 1941."
>>65182154Japan actually copied several (Spanish) Galleons.Five or so. They used them too send an embassy to New Spain, and then on to Europe (on a Spanish ship).But then the Shogun decided it was enough with Christian missionary bullshit, threw out the Catholics and only allowed the Dutch trade for 200 years. Plus some trade and diplomacy with the loccal neighbors
>>65184273To be fair, Trump specifically acts like a continental power.
>>65184273>trump performatively uses realist school rhetoric and negotiation tactics >this somehow changes the fact that every military action he's taken has ben a lightning strike using air and sea power to bully the opponent into compliance, with only one instance of the target not complying yetHow much more gunboat does his diplomacy have to be for your subjective little fee fees to see it is a continuation of existing doctrine? How is this any different from the late cold war shit Reagan was involved with? Hell the only difference with Clinton is than antagonism with the EU. You faggots have Trump worms in the brain.
it's not the 1870s any more, making a single new warship takes decades because they're much more technologically complex
>>65182096It really doesn't make sense given that the guy who wrote the book on the subject and from which they derived the Kantai Kessen was Alfred Thayer Mahan. So they tried to repeat their previous success, which had required the complacency of the enemy in the first place, on another opponent who knew what they had done, had written a book which defined naval doctrine for half a century about how they did it, had built their own navy and could replace it unlike Russia and had at least technical parity with Japan whereas in the Russo-Jap war the Russians were using mostly obsolete vessels against the Japs' British built state of the art ships. So the plan required the enemy to be retarded and cooperative at every step. Should have aimed for the fuel oil stores on Hawaii instead.
>>65186683>making a single new warship takes decadesSimply not true
Gina has a very long naval tradition just zero experience in modern naval ops. Actually now that I think of it most costal nations fit that description.
>>65186792I wouldn't underestimate Gina
>>65186792How do you know?
What's got the chinkspammer salty?
>>65182156Coal is probably the shittiest single source of energy, ruins the landscape and pollutes the air. The smart answer is always to build everything and diversify energy generation.
>>65182091The Russian Empire didn't have much of a naval tradition when they started out in the 1870's, and in spite of having every material pre-requisite to developing even basic organisational competence, the Empire/Union/Federation have never achieved it.In that regard the USA, UK, France, Spain, Germany, Italy and Japan have had something that Russia and China have never demonstrated - a culture of individual freedom and competence.Until seaman Ivan and Zhang can see a problem and report it (instead of ignoring it so they don't get punished for embarrassing a senior) their Navy's will continue to be a (mostly) floating circus.
>>65182113>What will be the technology that invalidates this Malthusian scenarioThere is none. The problem is that the colored races of the world will breed up until they reach the malthusian carrying limits of their biotope. Then they will breed even more of themselves by shrinking in size. You ever wondered by coloreds are so small? Thats the evolutionary end stage of several thousands of years of living on the edge of starvation. Small people consume less resources than big people so you can carry more people in the same biotope. Any technology that increases the carrying capacity of the colored biotope will only be a temporary relief. Then the problem is back, but this time you have 10 times as many people to deal with. Check out the population growth rates of countries like Algeria, Ethiopia, Congo, India, Egypt starting in the 1800s to the present day. It was an american christcucker that started the green revolution and the end result was mega famines in Africa once they had quadrupled their population and the inevitable famine year hit. Then all their excess population started to spill out of Africa. But for a few years, he got to feel real morally superior because he had "cured" famine to make jeeebus happy.
>>65184282>But then the Shogun decided it was enough with Christian missionary bullshit, threw out the Catholics and only allowed the Dutch trade for 200 years.That was because the christcuckers started a holy insurrection in the name of gawd once they had collected enough local cultists.
>>65187023The requirement to be able to build and maintain a navy is to be competent in technology and science and this is increasingly lacking in Europe and America. This is fundamentally a genetic and not a cultural issue.
>>65182091Krauts' only naval tradition is to scuttle their own ships at the first sign of trouble.
Have a mandatory implessive
>>65184273What an idiot
>>65187516India and LATAM are bellow replacement and most of middle east will be there soon as well as is barely above replacement. Even Africa birthrates are declining rapidly although this is relative to the old 7.0 rate. But even they are declining this will matter as total mortality rates are going to spike due to climate related famines and heat waves, along with western empathy fatigue affecting aidGo be a retard someone else
>>65182091The Germans and Japanese were both retards for trying to build up a force that would overpower their main rivals (No Russia in 1904 did not count the Japanese mogged Russia by the 1890s), rather than just having a credible deterrent and profiting from their already large international market access. So they aren't the best examples to point to. Naval traditional is a meme and a paradox game mechanic, not a determinant of power. Strategic doctrine is not. I could go into depth about why Chinese strategic doctrine is retarded, but I'd get drowned out by retards so i don't really feel like it right now. But the short of it that Chinese problems stems from Xi's current economic programs and his Tang Dynasty larp railroads, and not his navy. No matter how good a Chinese navy might be, and they do have the capacity to make a large and powerful navy, the use cases for their navy as Chinese doctrine stands are cost inefficient at best, and whatever they could gain from force projection can more easily gained from other sorts of economic power which china has in abundance. >>65182110That might've played a role, but sea lanes played a part in global commerce of all types. It determined what markets you could access as an industrial power as well as what sort of treaties you could enforce. Having a navy strong enough to contest another power's navy gave you leverage in inter power struggles, leading to naval arms races as powers tried to gain an upper hand over each other. Fertilizer was just one of a dozen resource races that the imperial powers were involved in. >>65184273Holy copium, do bongs really believe this?
>>65182091IMPLEASSIVE
>>65182110We just discovered enough lithium to power US industry for 100 years on the east coast
>>65187704>70% of the worlds remaining BTUs of coal>all the good shale>some chromium now>all the good silicaHow many cycles has it been now?If it wasn't for non-whites the US would be perfect.
Holy seethe
>>65187650Even if what you said is true, these browns are going to pour into developed countries to sponge off the wealth there, all the while committing crimes against the native first worlders, aided and abetted by the governments in those countries. It will be the Marocchinate on a continental scale
>>65189339>picThey always remember you're fumbles.
>>65182091While Germany had not much of a naval tradition when it formed in 1871 (and the Prussian navy in particular spent much of the wars against Denmark and France mostly in hiding), Germany as a whole did have a pretty strong maritime, shipbuilding and seafaring tradition, particularly in the former Hanseatic regions like Hamburg, Bremen and Kiel. German shipping lines were pretty active all over the world by the mid-19th century. So they weren't entirely starting from nothing like the Japanese were
>>65187704>We just discovered enough lithium to power US industry for 100 years on the east coastLithium isnt a power source unless you have some kind of ultra high temperature and compression fusion reactor. It is a component of lithium batteries. Batteries are not a power source (a surprisingly large amount of retards believe this to be the case).
>>65187650>India and LATAM are bellow replacement and most of middle east will be there soon as well as is barely above replacement.The only thing stopping these people from breeding more is hitting their local malthusian limits and this limit is different depending upon the genetic preprogramming of the population. If you are genetically programmed to yolo you will breed often and early.https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/countries/irq/iraq/populationTotal current population for Iraq in 2025 was 47,549,546, a 2.21% increase from 2024.Total population for Iraq in 2024 was 46,523,657, a 3.22% increase from 2023.Total population for Iraq in 2023 was 45,074,049, a 2.28% increase from 2022.Total population for Iraq in 2022 was 44,070,551, a 2.32% increase from 2021.Population in 1990 was 17 million, in 2025 47 million. Still growing,. https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/countries/jor/jordan/populationTotal current population for Jordan in 2025 was 11,442,114, a 0.5% increase from 2024.Total population for Jordan in 2024 was 11,384,922, a 0.47% decline from 2023.Total population for Jordan in 2023 was 11,439,213, a 1.63% increase from 2022.Total population for Jordan in 2022 was 11,256,263, a 1.72% increase from 2021.These guys have hit their malthusian limits. Jordan had a population of 3.6 million perople in 1990. Now they are 11.5 million people. The population of these fast breeders will spill over into the rest of the world and displace everyone else as they can breed in poorer conditions that others wont breed in. They will also generate the poor conditions that only they can breed in. And the ultimate breeder in poor conditions is the african negro. Do you understand how this works now?
>>65182091I see Hapanda has been reading his chink alt histories that chink mods upload to chink Wikipedia to cope with China being a joke of a country again.>>65182121Wrong, we had to btfo every major naval power to get here, but we never will have peers again because having peers is gay and real chads punch down. >>65187016You mean nuclear, possibly some solar. Most green energy subsidy-gatherers are scammers thoughbeit. >>65187532>Efficient naval schema and a culture of personal initiative don't matterChina just killed its top jet designer after letting their government use the jet program for graft for years if not decades. Shut up and sew shoes yellow fellow, before you get kicked in the micropeen.
>>65189323The gate is shut and your fellows are getting deported.
>>65186982Another Canadian Chinese girl turned him down for a Whiteboy.
>>65187686>I could go into depth about why Chinese strategic doctrine is retarded, but I'd get drowned out by retards so i don't really feel like it right now. I'm interested to hear it if you're still here anon
>>65190463Sure, I’ll bite.Basically, to understand Xi's doctrine you first have to understand China after 1978. I won’t go into Mao, because Mao only mattered as far as he set up Xi’s generation back educationally, and made them suffer from purges. This has a clear impact on Xi, but these are better understood free of Maoism, because Xi is not a Maoist whatsoever. When Deng Xiaoping took power in 1978 he had a broken country that was behind in meaningful ways to places such as sub-Sarhan Africa, and India. So he pulled on the loose ties from the Kissinger era and toured America, and built up good will. He did this by being willing to lose face and admit to China’s various weaknesses.From here he sent out as many students to learn from foreigners, let other countries open up low labor cost industries in China, as well as started getting tech transfers from whoever would give to him (notably Japan was the first real serious investor, because Deng Xiaoping basically accepted Japan’s apologies for ww2).All of this matters because he then began to liberalize the economy. People often overstate how far he went because this was a gradual process that was concerned with maintaining political power over growth. However by simply undoing Mao’s way of doing things and not beating scholars to death for being educated the Chinese economy managed to sustain some serious growth numbers, and quickly built up to the state we saw by the early 00s as a low quality high quantity legitimately industrial nation. This was done for entirely marxists reasons however. Maoism deviated in saying that a nation could become communist before it became capitalist, hence the random attempts to cargo cult China into modernity. Deng however was a pragmatist who had lived in the west and soviet union, so knew what industrialization meant, and how to achieve it. But this did not make him any less commie. (1/4) Also let me know if you have any questions, I'm autistic about this
>>65190647Deng’s chosen heir Jiang Zemin is a really complex figure but to make things short he saw the writing on the wall about corruption now that there were non party oligarchs, so decided to make all the billionaires members of the party. This seems silly in some ways because to us this looks like a good way to make corruption worse. But remember party members are legally held to higher standards and there are vast state institutions dedicated to the purging of the party.However this did end up with basically the wealthy and the party in bed with each other, and helped foster corruption in earnest in China. Or at least the sort of corruption you get in a non planned economy. However this also led to a better set of industrial policies in China and helped coordinate technical development in China so that they became viable innovators and competitors in a lot of industries that we don’t really care as much about in the west. (I am not a China numba one shill, but I am also not a China cannot manufacture anything shill either, I have a balanced view of things) Hu Jintao basically continued on this trend, but began to develop a series of tools to better control the new state and the billionaires. He laid the groundwork for the modern surveillance state that Xi then used to purge Hu, but I’ll get to that in a second. Before Xi took power we had a China that was growing at rapid rates. However this growth was unequal to the detriment of China’s economic fundamentals, marred with massive corruption that degraded public trust and faith in the state as well as pollution beyond what the western mind can comprehend. All of these were existential in Xi’s mind.(2/4)
>>65190655Xi took power and almost immediately issued document number no.9. You should read this document. But the part of the document that matters to us is the thesis that by adopting a capitalist system, allowing corruption and opening to the west China was breeding cynicism in its communist nature which would in time destroy the party. Read Kevin Rudd’s On Xi Jinping, it’s a very good book on this, and only further proven by the purge plenum last october.Xi’s ideas of corruption and cynicism are very different from ours. His definition of corruption includes not fulfilling the dictates of the state either effectively or zealously. (And before you ask, yes failing because the state has a bad policy is in fact corruption and proof you are ideologically impure.) So Xi set out to reverse the trends of Jiang and Hu by returning to orthodox marxist epistemology (as in pre-stalin) and decided to move China into the next step in the primary stages of socialism. And he has set out to begin to transition from capitalism towards socialism (which as we know has never ever been tried and totally didn’t kill three times the Chinese the Japanese did, nosiree) . So what does this mean for Xi’s strategic outlook? Well let’s start by going over our axioms, because I have a soft spot for traditional greek geometric logic. 1. China is too capitalist and needs more Marxism 2. Marxist-Leninism can anticipate the future and is fundamentally correct3. Corruption is also state of disobedience 4. The west is bad and an anomaly 5. China has proven to be the vanguard of international of the proletariat If these aren’t clear I can explain more, but let’s talk strategy now. (3/4)
>>65190670>Catalog(3/4)See Xi firstly doesn’t actually believe in finance. Like he fundamentally doesn’t believe that any sort of financial aspect of the economy is terrible and generates decadence, like we’re talking /pol/ tier. Paired with his continued nationalization, de jure and de facto of more of the economy, this has led to the situation where all stores of value in China are bad for the average person and Xi intentionally pops any bubble that might allow Chinese people to store value. This along with his covid lockdowns have gutted his domestic economy and led to the production and construction heavy economy that ironically is driving inequality in China. This imbalance is because Xi believes raw production is legitimately the only metric of true economic power, and under state guidance they have heavily and systematically overproduced every conceivable good, using state subsidies. This works as far as it fucks the competition, but it also fundamentally prevents China from turning a real profit from their exports either. This is no more notable to whatever the name is for that set of goods he first really called out in his 13th five year plan. Solar panels, EVs ect. He believes these are the same kind of goods that will drive future economic growth and thus by cornering them he can own the future of the world economy. This is somewhat true, but also ignores that other countries can also adapt and won’t be constrained by total mobilization of ideological goods and that it impairs China in the long term to do so. So far this seems like a decent-ish strategy at least for international power. So why do I call it retarded? (4/5) I seemed to have miscalculated
>>65190699>systematically overproduced every conceivable good, using state subsidies. This works as far as it fucks the competition, but it also fundamentally prevents China from turning a real profit from their exports either.Not an economist. Cannot see how this is implied. Arent being a monopoly and having economy of scale a textbook way to reap profits in the future?
>>65182091>Germany and Japan didn't have much of a naval tradition either when they started out in the 1870s, but they were giving other major naval powers as good as they got within 20-30 yearsGermany and Japan got their shit pushed in by other naval powers.
>>65190699Because at the same time he is entirely trying to subvert the west and all western global institutions. These institutions fundamentally uphold the market system under which this system is slightly viable, and if he is able to drown all other rival producers, he suddenly has nobody worth exporting to, and ends up producing goods at a meager profit for raw goods. (To dip my toes into politics for a second, China actually supports Trump as a bringer of global disorder that will unseat the Anglo-American racial market hegemony started in the early 1800s) This is his actual goal. He sees the prewestern status quo of China and her tributaries as the natural state of history, and thus has fused his marxists beliefs of the core and periphery, proletariat and exploiters and the west and east into one easy heuristic. Basically China is the good boy of history and bringer of socialism by her role as the natural and benevolent hegemon of the world and culture. (5/6) >>65190720Good question! Let me give you an example I know well. China in ~ 2017 made 2x the global solar panel demand and only used half its production capacity, so could make up to 4x. The absolutely squashed the competition, but spent more in subsidies and investment cost than it made back also produced massive backlogs that rotted in warehouse, even with massive Chinese projects that never got hooked to the Chinese power grid, including the world's largest horse shaped solar panel.This entire time the average Chinese saw their state directed economy shift away from other goods, and basically churn money away from other sectors through giga subsidies. By doing so, not only does the market economy in China shifted artificially, but the growth potential of other countries fell. This hampers the ability for other places to purchase good on the longer term, and thus increases the cost of these dumping policies on China as even in communism the money has to come from somewhere to fund this
>>65184284What level of TDS is this on?
>>65190772However, by subverting the US market system completely he is destroying the mechanisms that make his model fundamentally sustainable. For example by creating a fleet to undermine american naval hegemony and allowing nations such as Iran to naval establish tolls he is setting himself up to lose portions of this global market and encourage autarkical policies as trade lanes become less reliable and profitable. By undermining the global system of global arbitration and the norms that have put an end to annexation and force he is setting himself to a world where distant powers can use coercion to undermine his current production hyperpower by allowing force to determine spheres of influence. By overproduction he is shrinking the size of the global market that he intends to monopolize and he's already not making a profit in real terms, and he already has his fucking cake. This disconnect from economic principals is no more evident than in his railroad policy. He’s pushed massive projects over the Himalayas to get port access in Pakistan to get oil into China without worrying about the straits of Malaya. The cost of maintenance alone outweighs the import volume, without even getting into the diminishing returns with railways, and that goes without mentioning the fucking ore routes that almost mathematiclly cannot make a profit. He’s done similar things for resources to central Asia, and of fucking course he re-routes all the lines through Xi’an whenever possible as a true Tang Dysansty larper. tdlr: Xi is trying to create dynastic Chinese trade with a Leninist system without any fucking idea what this will mean for him(6/6)
>>65182091>So, what exactly is the precondition for a "naval tradition"?The establishment of a professional Naval Academy teaching Captains strategy, common curriculum and statesmanship. An active fleet of ships that do patrols in blue water, an active presence in the world's oceans and the ability to bring naval power to a wide range of locations on the planet.
>>65190670>Corruption is also state of disobedienceA quibble. You mean "Disobedience is also a state of corruption" or in more modern terms "Disobedience is a sufficient condition of corruption".
>>65190834No worries, I rushed through my proofreading to get this done before my old man comes over, (we're getting a pint and talking about Ukraine in few).But I mean to convey disobedience is a form of corruption as severe as taking money or something
>>65190780>However, by subverting the US market system completely he is destroying the mechanisms that make his model fundamentally sustainableAnd that is the gambit the Americans are now running to stay on top.
>>65190917I get what the thought process is, but absolutely ruining your own hegemonic system to the detriment of everyone in your sphere without a good industrial policy is absolutely retarded
>>65190699>See Xi firstly doesn’t actually believe in finance. Like he fundamentally doesn’t believe that any sort of financial aspect of the economy is terrible and generates decadencewoah based based based basedAbolition of money when?
>>65191391It's not happening in the most organized manner, but detractors do not have nearly the grasp of the situation they think they do. Every interaction I have reinforces this assessment.
>>65190769Germany won at Jutland and Japan beat the Royal Navy in every single 1v1 surface action except for the Battle of the Malacca Strait
>>65189673>batteries aren't a power sourceSince when? It is a source of power in machines. It does not make it's own power, but that isn't relevant to the term, no?And you know they didn't mean it as literal electrical power.
>>65184273Isn't most of the USN actually ran by the Philippines?
>>65191570>Since when? It is a source of power in machines. It does not make it's own power, but that isn't relevant to the term, no?Batteries store electric power. They are not a source of power. Coal, oil and natural gas are raw resources mined from the earth which can be turned into heat which then can be turned into electricity trough mechanical movement. If you want to replace carbon hydrate powered cars you also need to get a new source of power to charge your batteries because the battery really just only replaces the fuel tank in your car, not the fuel. So batteries are not a source of power anymore than the fuel tank in your car is. Its just storage for not yet consumed power that is loaded into the battery from elsewhere. Do you get it now? The electrification of road transport requires massive investments in new power plants and new transmission lines and an entirely new massive network of chargers to generate this power and distribute it so all the batteries can be charged. We can calculate how much new power generation that is needed and it is a lot of power plants. That isnt happening and wont happen. You are not supposed to own or drive a car according to agenda 2030. The entire electric car scheme is a bait and switch where you are supposed to end up carless unless you are really rich and connected. Thus no need to build all these new power plants and new grid and charger network. All this green energy transition shit is only possible because an average white european or american man is completely clueless about basic natural science and technology. Only a small and dwindling minority of white men have a natural affinity for natural science and technology and even if we can spot the scam immediately its impossible to explain it to someone who is figuratively blind. I dont know how many men I have met that cant distinguish between kilowatt and kilowatthour.
>>65182091Chang your people havent defeated a foreign army in 500 years, and ethnically Han armies have lost 99% of the fights you've had against foreigners for all of history.You suck at war, you've always sucked at war, you always will suck at war.
>>65189673Are you autistic anon.
>>65190699>So far this seems like a decent-ish strategy at least for international power. So why do I call it retarded? I actually think you've done a good job in these first 4 posts of showing the habits of an inept leader without telling us them directly. The question surfacing in my mind is, "how close did this guy get to bringing back Maoism and the cultural revolution?"Still reading but just wanted to comment that your writeup is very well done and interesting, and your writing style itself is pleasant to read. I appreciate you going to the effort on this mongolian basket weaving forum. You should look into writing a piece for a magazine or historical or political outlet or something, if you're not actually a professional historian and/or global economics writer already.
>>65192350Thanks, I'm applying for a PHD on China this fall. Being a professional writer about this stuff is the dream. Although as you can tell, I also need to work on my spelling and proofreading.
>>65190699>>65192491>>65192350>Answering to yourself IMPLESSIVE
