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Previous: >>537943592

Day 1,586 – Daily assessment: understandingwar.org/analysis/russia-ukraine/#research

▶Latest
>Flamingo Strikes Volgograd Defense Plant
>Crimea has announced a state of emergency
>Multiple regions in Pidorashka announced ROCKET DANGER
>New satellite imagery shows a traffic jam stretching over 10 km on the exit from occupied Crimea at the Kerch Bridge, with an estimated 1,500 vehicles waiting to leave the peninsula.
>TWO Ufa refineries are struck. Take a big SNIFF Ufimtsy.
>The blue-and-yellow flag has been raised on the Kinburn Spit. The Defense Forces of the South have forced the russian occupiers to retreat from their positions.
>Newest Polish drone Striker with range of a 1000 km has been successfully field tested in Ukraine
>Ukraine has turned the tide of the war and is now in a winning position. Kyiv no longer has to wait for winter to slow russia’s offensive. Ukrainian forces now hold the initiative, maintain pressure on the battlefield, and continue striking critical russian infrastructure - US Deputy Secretary of State Jeremy Levin
>As of June 22 signal repeaters that helped russians attack Ukraine with drones have been out of service in belarus - Zelenskyy
>The defense forces have destroyed more than 60k tons of ammunition at the Baltic Fleet arsenal near pidorsburg - Zelenskyy
>russia has to resort to begging indians for gas
>russia is now bussifying its population
>Kerch bridge AD was bombed and disabled
>russian grocery stores are running out of food
>Restrictions on fuel sales introduced in 17 regions of russia — russian media

▶Telegram
rentry.org/telosint2023
t.me/ukr_pics
▶Intel
t.me/DeepStateEN
odin.tradoc.army.mil/WEG (equipment explorer)
ukr.warspotting.net (visually confirmed losses)
▶Maps
deepstatemap.live/en
liveuamap.com/en
▶DISPOSABLE SOLDIER (diary of a RU mobik)
TOURS 1-4: https://files.catbox.moe/19avc9.zip
▶russian confirmed KIA updated daily: https://hochuvernut.com/
>>
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The russia lost.
>>
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Tonight's latest hit LMAO
>>
There's a thread already
>>537952161
Recycle this one
>>
>>537953229
Righto, let this one go to archive.
>>
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>>537953203
all that oil... lost, like dick in the ass.
>>
>>537953203
russian boomers withdrawing all their gold reserves and destroying all their oil refineries so that future generations have no glimpse of hope
>>
>>537953203
Can someone who isn't bias tell me just how effective these strikes are? How bad is it looking for Russia in the short and long term? I know when Ukraine first did oil strikes there were shocks but the adjusted to it. How bad is it getting now?
>>
>>537954155
state of emergency in crimea and fuel shortage in moscow. difference today is they can hit much more often and farther with no sign of stopping
>>
>>537954196
How far do the drones actually travel? in the videos they seem very slow, are they really getting launched from 100 of ks away?
>>
>>537954155
It's getting bad, with rationing petrol and more and more places with limited/ no supply, as whatever is left is being stored away for emergency and/or sent to the military/Moscow (so people don't rebel).

It all depends on how much more they will be able to destroy. Not just industrial plants, but cisterns, storages etc.
ATM aim is to starve Crimea, and it's going pretty well.
>>
>>537953110
TZD
>>
>>537954239
to 1200km it seems
>>
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>>537954239
they're not that slow
>>
>>537954239
different types with different ranges.
But they striek with many things, like
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Storm_Shadow
>>
>>537954155
>>537954239
We're in the phase of Ukraine's long range campaign, where russian AA has been degraded severly and a lot of long term decisions made by ukranian leadership as far back as 2022 come to fruition.
Russia basically was all "Two more weeks and fuck the hohols in their asses". Now every week Putin has to deal not with new problems.
Expect the following:
>Russian advances will slow down even more. Shills will boast about advancobg 3 micrometers towards Berlin.
>Moscow will increasingly take priority for Russia and the rest of the country eill revert to using mules and oxcarts.
>Ukraine will do sometthing funny.

Basically watch the southern front and further up north near Lyman. We could see a repeat of the 2022 gambit play out and russia threatening nukes. AGAIN.
>>
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Same question as the other thread, are we running two generals just to humilliate /chug/ we can do so while they can't even push their FSB-funded trashbin?
>>
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>>537954479
Russian nukes would be more convincing if it wasn't for a few small issues...
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>if only the tsar knew
why are they always like this?
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russia recruiting more and more volunteers from the street
>>
>>537954196
Isnt Crimea Ukraine? Why are they bombing their own people?
>>
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>>537955149
>>
>>537955149
they're bombing the military infrastructure of the invader who are already fleeing the ship like the rats that they are
>>
>>537955149
why not?
>>
>>537954155
They are not going to run out of gassoline, but it's creates an economic shock that is self feeding. Supply is disrupted, he price goes up, people rush to buy, the supple can't reach current demand, price goes up. And in the meantime you got people lining gas stations instead of spending their income at stores and bars and etc. You got suppliers who need to spend more on securing fuel, so the price of freight goes up, resulting in more expensive goods in stores.

What is right now happening in Crimea with food shortages isn't that food can't get to the stores, it's that drivers don't think it's economically viable to go there, if they can't make the return trip - big cargo trucks need constant moving to make money for the owner.
>>
>>537955149
crimea is russia according to the russian constitution (as is kherson, zapo and donbabwe), unless you are saying that the russian constitution is a worthless scrap of paper?
>>
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>>537955149
Crimea? What are you talking about? No problem at Crimera comrade.
Stop talking about Crimea! Comrades! This man is slandering glorious RuAF!
>>
>>537955312
I mean, it has been a long time since russians could write something consistent, and it was soviet scifi novels.
>>
>>537954155
Very. Russia has a lot of refining capacity, because it lived off hydrocarbs, but has very little inport capacity. In vidya terms, Russia has lots of HP.
What UA has done is weaponizing Russia's size, by nibbling at its refining capacity, and then straining its logistics. Russia has no domestic know how to repair the damage, no way to import fuel, and no funds to defend against barrages of missles coming from UA, and are too vast to exist without efficient logistics
They are in a decay spiral now.
>>
>>537953110
Now, as we can all see, if the fucking "collective wect" or "hato" politicians weren't cucks and gave weapons and allowed Ukraine to strike russia 4.5 years ago, many lives would have been spared. TZD and thank you for your attention.
>>
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eyebrow status?
>>
>>537954751
A country that can't supply its troops with boots has no capability to keep something as maintenance intendive as nukes in launch ready state. US spends Russia's annual defense budget on its stockpile alone.
>>
>>537955149
Theres Russian invaders. Lots of countries drop bombs on enemy troops that happens to be in their country
>>
>>537954900
They don't remain like that for very long
This one specifically is already pushing flowers up
>>
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ukies should get nooks when this conflict is over to prevent it from happening agan
>>
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>dark truth
>>
>>537955590
Nukes are ferraris of war. Cute, impressive, but actually quite useless. Ironically, what Ameroids had dine to Japan is their only use. Shock and awe on an enemy too stubborn to give up.
>>
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>>537955727
keeping the ziggers from invading seems like a good idea tho

>if you invade again we nook Mosquew and Pidorsberg
Gotta be willing to actually do it though
>>
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>>537955571
>>
>>537955788
Zegroes have been diubg exactly that since 2022. Look how well it went for them.
>>
>>537956199
I have no idea what you're saying
>>
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>>537953110
TZD
>>
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>>537954155
Imagine being a supposedly a superpower, half of your economy based on oil products - then going to beg for gasoline from a neighbour you tried to bully some time ago. Nobody can 100% tell you for sure how dire the situation is; but if the russia is forced to be a beggar, then the situation can't be good right now. They really try their hardest to avoid being seen as weak after all. Then you have monke going to potato king unannounced, and they are discussing something for two days straight.

putin is panicking.
>>
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NUMBERS
>>
>>537956404
>muh fake stats from ukraine

trannies can be made to believe anything.
>>
>>537956500
Cope.
>>
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>FP-9 missle
>capable of striking targets up to 855 km away, with a velocity up to 2,200 m/s and an 800 kg warhead
>easily puts Moscow and St. Petersburg in range, with those being explicitly stated by Fire Point as intended targets
>both city's air defenses are having trouble dealing with flying lawnmower bombs and subsonic cruise missiles
>now it has to deal with a Mach 6.5 ballistic missile
If the FP-9 ends up being effectively unstoppable and can slam into Moscow with impunity, at what point does monke say "STOP OR I TACTICOL NOOK"?
>>
>>537956234
*doing. Zegroes have been doing the nuke threat. Phone posting with sasuage fingers.
>>
>>537956631
>Fp-9 reaching moscow means nukes are on the table
No, they just start saturation bombing Kiev with glide bombs from Tu-95s, completely, and fly them in from Belarus. Kiev will look like Dresden.
>>
>>537954479
> Shills will boast about advancobg 3 micrometers towards Berlin.

They literally report on capturing individual buildings in towns now
>>
>>537956848
I'm sure the'll do that with all five survivig tu95s, with impunity and fuck plane maintenance. From Belarus, after Potatov cucked out and cut Zigeria off their comms.
>>
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>>537956848
>glide bombs
>kiev
>tu-95
you are completely militarily illiterate, the fact that you unironically wrote a combination of these words and thought it made sense is proof enough, that you are the brownest most retarded gorilla nigger that has ever existed
>>
>>537956848
they've already basically thrown everything they can at them. this is why when russia does its "big retaliation" to some attack by ukraine, it takes them 1-2 weeks to get enough bombs together to do it. they haven't even responded to them blowing up moscow's refinery, beyond their standard daily attack.
>>
i find it funny, that ukraine can just blow up an oil refinery outside moscow, and the russian government doesn't even really comment on it, and they don't even do a retaliatory campaign in response.
>>
>>537956848
Ukraina has ~40 to 60 fighter jets, tu95s will get hunted easily
>>
>>537956848
The gloves, as they say, would be coming off?
>>
go to this thread for now if you haven't realised yet
>>537952161
>>537952161
>>537952161
>>537952161
>>
>>537956848
This is some real shit bait. You almost don't even deserve a >(you) for it.
>>
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>>537957887
The urge for TZD can't be contained in one place anymore.
>>
>>537957887
Having two threads up, why /chug/ is a couple of brown bunkertroons coping and seething is funny.
>>
>>537954155
>Can someone who isn't bias tell me just how effective these strikes are?
Very effective, but Russia is big.
>How bad is it looking for Russia in the short and long term?
Short term: very shit.
Long term: depends whether Putin holds on, what kind of regime replaces him, whether Russia balkanizes, etc. It could be even worse than dissolution of the USSR, or they could enter a new golden age if they somehow (unlikely) managed to get genuinely non-corrupt people in charge who want a small government market economy.
>How bad is it getting now?
Pretty fucking bad outside Moscow. Even in Moscow their economy is doing quite horribly.
>>
>>537957887
We're gonna have to finish this one eventually...
>>
>>537957968
This, we have enough steam to run 2 threads, this also mindbreaks /chug/ies because we are just some randoms mocking PUCCIA, I don't even know if there are peruvians who post here other than myself.
>>
>>537953110
replace ukrainian flag with iranian flag and the russian flag with us flag and you got the situation in the persian gulf, to yanks war is unimaginable.
>>
>>537957955
Very trad and orthodox pics comrade.
>>
>>537958204
Hey I just read about you guys
>>
>>537958201
EAT YOUR VEGGIES
>>
>>537958459
According to the AI there was some nation wide outrage, honestly I think most people just shrugged off, as things stand they did it for the money, although we have our share of prorussians, mostly old tankies who either don't know or think dedovshchina is trad and based as long as you are not bottom.
>>
>>537953203
Not my problem
They voted for this
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>>537955149
Trying to get rid of all the illegal immigrants
True patriots would understand
>>
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>>537953110
It's time to go back piggies! Don't you want to be part of Zelensky's pantheon of heroes?



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