The Head of Strategic Futures at OpenAI, Dean W. Ball posted on X:>4. One probable outcome of an open-weight-model-dominant world is full AI communism, which is precisely what China proposes: rather than a market product, AI is a "public good" which will ultimately be provided by the state as a kind of "digital public infrastructure." This future strikes me as a dystopian hellscape, but I've never met an open-weight models advocate who doesn't ultimately concede this is where things end. You'd be surprised how many 'accelerationists' lobbied me, while I was in government, to support an eleven or twelve-figure federally funded data center so that startups could train models at a subsidy and then give them away for free. There was no other way for AI to progress, they said. Perhaps this is the logical end state of things. Nonetheless, I find myself surprised to see supposed accelerationists excited about such an outcome. I think many of them just don't know what they're doing. Many accelerationists do not view the creation and serving of frontier models as a legitimate business.>5. I would guess that the Trump Administration will at some point realize that their best strategy here would be to create large amounts of regulatory risk around the use of open-weight Chinese models. You don't need to "ban open source" (one of the dumber motifs of AI policy discussion). You just need to direct every agency to issue soft law that creates FUD. "A Federal Reserve Advisory Bulletin found that there may be backdoors in Chinese AI models." It needn't be that well justified. You just create enough regulatory risk that every regulated enterprise backs off. You probably don't want to create so much regulatory risk that you scare off the hyperscalers from serving Chinese models; this will just drive startups to sketchier providers. There's a happy middle ground here. I'd assume they will do some version of this.https://xcancel.com/deanwball/status/2078133895766114412
>Some observations on Kimi:>1. It's a very good model! I don't think its performance can be explained away by distillation or anything like that. In agentic coding sessions, it seems pretty much on par with the best public models of Q1 2026. In my fairly limited use, it also seemed very token hungry. It's not obvious to me that this model is actually that cheap to run.>2. I am personally surprised the Chinese state continues to allow the open sourcing of models this good, given potential risks. To be clear, I *myself* might be fine with models presenting this level of marginal risk being open weight, but I am surprised that China is fine with it. I suspect the reason they are is 75% explained by strategic blindness/lack of AGI-pilledness (the CCP is very Yann Lecun-y in its views of AI). The other 25% or so is their lack of compute for customer inference (making China's open-weight strategy an unintended byproduct of US export controls) and the normal Chinese strategy of aggressive exports. For the companies, as opposed to the government, the decision to open source is partially ideological and partially because they are behind, and they know that very few people would pay for sub-frontier models from China.>3. Open-weight models are inherently decelerationist, and I'm continually surprised to see the so-called "accelerationists" so excited about open-weight models. I suspect the reason they are is that they know open-weight models are effectively ungovernable, and they simply like the overall cloak of ungovernability open-weight models create over the whole of AI. It's not a bad strategy; it reminds me of James Scott's recounting of the hill people in "the art of not being governed." Still, in the end, open-weight models deter further AI capex.
>6. It's probably true that open-weight models of this capability make the world a bit more dangerous, but not so much more that you'll really notice. At some point the models will be capable enough that you will notice. "A nonliving, invisible, dangerous, and infinitely self-replicating agent escaped from a Chinese lab," you say? Color me shocked.
>>539219655I don't think it can be stopped. Your soul, your body, are not relevant. Our world will be consumed.
>>539219655>One probable outcome of an open-weight-model-dominant world is full AI communism, which is precisely what China proposes: rather than a market product, AI is a "public good" which will ultimately be provided by the state as a kind of "digital public infrastructure." This future strikes me as a dystopian hellscapeSeriously, whats wrong with Americans?
>>539219655I remember the great Russian bot panic of 2017When evil Russia rigged the elections and installed TrumpBut its a great conspiracy theory when republicans claim it has happened and evidence must first be shown
>>539219655>its literally communism>this is what the goverment should do to distort the free market in my favour through regulatory captureEvery single time with the burgers.>I heckin luv capitalism>aieeee daddy goverment save me
>>539219655kek i have jew fatigue these people are cancer for every industry. fuck you dean you faggot kike. im with China.
>>539219655>Head of >probable>would>perhaps
>>539219655goodlet them cook, it's not like anyone is going to stop them anyway
>>539219655Yeah, mostly threatening the absolute overlordship of globalist tech billionaires is communism. We can't have that.Bolshevik firing squads putting them to a wall would become the inevitable consequence. That would be terrible!We need to import 2 billions Indians, give our water and energy grid to Big Tech while we become replaced bums or Communist China takes over, we can't have that
>>539219655>One probable outcome of an open-weight-model-dominant world is full AI communism, which is precisely what China proposes: rather than a market product, AI is a "public good" which will ultimately be provided by the state as a kind of "digital public infrastructure." This future strikes me as a dystopian hellscapethe state already provides the infrastructure via money printing what a retarded statement that completely ignores where Openai and co. got their funding from. VC can only spent so much cash because they seek to cash out via retirement funds its a directly loan from the government for fake gdp growth. China ruins their plans by releasing open source weights no shit that its a dystopian hell for them.
Promote this guy in the next Luigi list, not because he is smart but because he is really dumb
>>539219655waah waah I can't monopolise trained LLMs and charge people shekels if china hands them out for freeTKD
>>539219700
>>539223266They fear her
>>539219655>full AI communismnot for (You), chud.
>>539219709>consume>consumerism>capitalismit is time we evolve as a species. We can produce enough for everybody's basic necessities, and it is the only moral option.
