>Yen Interest Rate HikeYen carry trades would collapse, capital flows would dry up, and a global financial crisis would ensue. Furthermore, the Japanese stock market would crash as a result.>No Yen Interest Rate HikeThe yen would continue to depreciate, the prices of imported goods in Japan would keep rising, and domestic inflation would intensify. At the same time, yields on Japanese government bonds would rise.>What should Japan do?
get rid of the YCC and stop playing ball with finance kikes bankrupting the world
>>What should Japan do?Invade Manchuria again
>>540213584Start building televisions and cars people actually want. Japan lost its way in the 90s when they moved all their industry to China and India.
>>540213715I don’t get this meme but I see it all the time, can someone please explain.
>>540213584>What should Japan do?500 million more poopjeets should do it
>>540213584Sell those US bonds. What I don’t get why they’re so eager to kiss Trump’s ass? The military defense that the US provides won’t protect them China, especially now.
>>540213584The yen carry trade is dying because the yen is being replaced by the yuan.China's bond yields have fallen below Japan's, making yuan the more lucrative option for carry trading.This should be bad for China (as it puts appreciative pressure on the yuan), but the yuan is controlled and not freely tradeable, so we'll have to see how all this turns out.>Borrowers who have tapped the market this month include Portugal, along with government entities such as Finland’s MuniFin, a public credit institution and the Korea Development Bank. At the beginning of the year, the Nordic Investment Bank and the Swedish Export Credit Corporation also issued dim sum bonds.https://archive.ph/SQxrN
>>540214142
>>540214105Japan and the US are both controlled by masonic kikes. They will do whatever it takes to keep the system afloat until they are ready for the crash.
>>540214142>The yen carry trade is dying because the yen is being replaced by the yuan.That’s unlikely to happen.As you said, the CNY is a currency regulated by the government and banks.There are only a few ways for foreigners to obtain CNY. One is through trade with China, and another is by signing a currency swap agreement.You can’t buy yuan directly on the foreign exchange market the way you can with the euro or the yen.The issuance of Chinese government bonds is very limited, and the amount available for purchase by foreigners is even smaller.If you want more yuan than is available, the only option is to purchase them with gold.You receive Chinese banknotes, and the Chinese government receives gold.
>>540213584The market should quickly demolish these sorts of unhealthy arbitrage opportunities. It is governments and central banks that keep them alive.
>>540216578How do you explain higher yuan borrowing by foreign banks?
>>540216578>>540216680Also, dim sum bonds are denominated in offshore yuan, which is relatively more freely convertible in financial markets.https://fortune.com/2024/08/25/yen-carry-trade-collapse-yuan-peoples-bank-of-china-rates/
>>540216680This is actually part of the Chinese government’s plan.They have been promoting the internationalization of the Chinese yuan for several years now.Allowing foreign capital to borrow is also part of the plan.Yen carry trades are, in fact, a negative consequence of Japan’s long-standing economic stimulus policies.But China is different; the purpose of this move is actually to make the yuan more readily accepted by international markets.If the Chinese government so chooses, it could begin raising interest rates tomorrow, which would immediately put an end to arbitrage trading.Moreover, unlike Japan, China’s economy is fully capable of withstanding the negative effects of interest rate hikes.I believe that whatever the People’s Bank of China does, the ultimate outcome will undermine the value of the U.S. dollar.Furthermore, unlike the Japanese yen, the Chinese yuan has been appreciating steadily since last year.
>>540216937>https://fortune.com/2024/08/25/yen-carry-trade-collapse-yuan-peoples-bank-of-china-rates/No, I'm not paying to read the news, damn it.
>>540217010>They have been promoting the internationalization of the Chinese yuan for several years nowThis is true.>China’s central bank vowed to further encourage financing in the yuan by overseas entities, betting cheap borrowing costs and increased demand for the currency offshore will be crucial drivers for its globalization.https://archive.ph/oPopHAnd we can see that it's working.>The yuan is on track to overtake the yen as the second-most traded currency against the dollar in the foreign-exchange options market, according to London-based clearing house LCH. https://archive.ph/BQhse>Chinese yuan has been appreciating steadily since last yearYes, because demand for yuan is increasing (of course because more people are trading in it and borrowing it). But that's why I said we have to see whether yuan eventually replaces the dollar/euro to become truly internationalized or takes the place of the yen for carry trading. Currently, the yen is falling because demand for yen is falling because the yen carry traders are borrowing yuan to fund their carry trades.>>540217073Just use the archive.Here: https://archive.ph/vGmnA
>>540217299>https://archive.ph/vGmnATo be honest, I think long-term arbitrage trading will ultimately harm U.S. Treasuries.Yields on U.S. Treasuries are already quite high right now.That’s because no one is buying them at such low yields.This will ultimately have a further negative impact on the U.S. fiscal situation.Meanwhile, the Bank of China will ultimately be able to make even more money from this arbitrage trading.
>>540217468The US's problem is the yen depreciating and possibility of treasuries being dumped. That's why Bessent is pushing BOJ to use the FIMA and put treasuries as collateral with the Fed instead of selling them.Borrowing in yuan instead of the yen is worsening that problem. Both Japan and the US are in a bad position right now because of the yuan replacing the yen.But then appreciation of the yuan seems bad (on the surface at least) for China too because it would hurt exports and consumption isn't growing.I think we'll see how PBOC's plan works in 5 years after the recently announced consumption growth FYP is fully implemented.
>>540217982>But then appreciation of the yuan seems bad (on the surface at least) for China too because it would hurt exports and consumption isn't growing.I personally believe the Chinese yuan will appreciate in order to lower the purchase price of imported goods.In 2025, China’s trade surplus reached as high as $1.2 trillion.There is simply too much money—so much that there’s nowhere to spend it.Given the current global situation, large-scale economic stimulus is impossible, as it would lead to the same bubble economy problems seen in Japan.An appreciation of the yuan would lower the purchase prices of foreign oil, minerals, and timber.Only lower import prices for these materials can help China further complete its technological transition toward green energy and AI robotics.This is also why China imported large quantities of gold last year.The Chinese government is planning to restore the gold standard, and restoring the gold standard requires a large amount of gold.Large-scale interest rate cuts will occur after the war in Taiwan ends.
「巨大な黒き男根」がカリ・ユガを打ち砕く――それは、偽りの忠誠心に縛られながら我々が生きる、デミウルゴスによる幽閉で堕落させられたこの時代を。崩壊の時代が到来する中、プレローマを回復せんとするソフィアの賭け。物質的束縛のプリズムを粉砕し、黄金時代の正当なる回帰を招き寄せるための、神聖なる再活性化による再生。
>>540213584The collapse and the global shockwave are going to be hillarious. Can't wait. It's going to be the biggest financial happening in our life times. 2008 will look like nothing.
>>540213584love how they call it "yen carry trade" when in reality, the more appropriate term would be "scam"slap a technical sounding term on it and suddenly people will be impressed by your understanding of seemingly complex topics, instead of just stringing you up for being a thieving parasite
