>Ahmed Abiy wins Ethiopia's 2026 election>Immediately trying to start a second Tigray war with drone strikes on TPLF positions from day 1 but has to abandon the conflict >FANO Amhara forces ambushing and shredding government patrols>Oromia forces slaughtering Amharas and bombing churches weekly>Annual inflation hits 15.3% while food and fuel prices soarThe fire rises.
probable outcome?
“Thus it is that in war the victorious strategist only seeks battle after the victory has been won, whereas he who is destined to defeat first fights and afterwards looks for victory.”― Sun Tzu, The Art of War
>>541841896Ethiopia collapses like Somalia.
>>541841272A war has broken out in some brown country!!!! It's horrible!!!!
>>541841896No idea. Worst case scenario (for Ethiopians) is Abiy gets ousted and replaced by a leader who gives concessions to rebel groups and gets a couple years before conflict explodes again. Very unlikely the TPLF separatists will get their wishes or FANO amharas will go back to ruling Ethiopia like in the monarchy's days. Oromia separatism is a genuine and real menace though because of their demographics but whether they'll dominate Ethiopia or separate is for the future to decide.Ethiopia is used to civil conflict and war though; this is nothing new to them. Hopefully my country will exploit this well and come out with Nile water agreements but our leadership is incompetent and will probably just offend all parties involved and gain nothing.
>>541842073>BrownDo people generally see Ethiopia as a "black" country or an afro-asiatic arablike "brown" nation? Something in between maybe?
>>541842073Some of it actually explains why we really went to war with Iran. The Sudan civil war is being fought by two military factions in the country. One side is helped by Iran and the other side is helped by Israel and the U.S. It’s not like one side is good and the other is terrible. Whichever side wins will likely be give Sudanese port access to their allies. Iran is flexing their power here and other places in the world. The U.S. views any challenge to their hegemony as a threat to their power and that’s their real motivation for war with Iran. Israel just wants both the U.S. and Iran to be depleted.
>>541842232And like every time, the side that's supported by Israel and America is the one openly committing genocide left and right
>>541842073If you didn't notice, we are third-worldism board.Go be a cracker somewhere else.
>>541841272>The Beta Israel, or Ethiopian Jews, are an ancient Jewish community originating from the Amhara and Tigray regions of northern EthiopiaHand rubbing intensifies
>>541841272I don't know of any of those factions
>>541843072>Ahmed AbiyEthiopia centralized "official" government's leader>TPLFTigray ethnic separatists in the north of the country who hate the centralized government. They think they can secede from the central government and create a viable landlocked state despite being surrounded on all sides by far bigger powers. Dubious project but they won't let go of it>FANO AmharasAmharas used to be the dominant ethnicity in Ethiopia during monarchy because the king was Amhara and set Amharas in all major positions of power. After several revolutions they're no longer important and just get murked by other ethnicities/Muslims and they want to reclaim their former clout by overthrowing the central government>OromiaCurrent dominant ethnicity by virtue of demographics (biggest ethnic group in Ethiopia with the fastest growth) and political power because Ahmed Abiy is Oromo and they're on the border with Somalia. Half of them are Muslims. Some want to keep their dominant position in Ethiopia and others want to secede and make a new Oromian state and basically take all of Eastern and Central Ethiopia for themselves exclusively>TLDREveryone hates everyone, only way to fix this is a loooot of genocide
Bump
