Basically had to do a paper on this, what i found out is basically this:OpenAI is only going to have profit for the first time in 2030The hardware used in data center gets depreciated every 3 years and data centers get more expensive as time progressesThey can't even plug the data centers in the electrical grid due to physical impossibilitiesPolitical opposition and CO2 initiatives in the EU make construction hardHardware depreciates every 3 years and operative costs are rising due to external conflicts and just the absurd amount of energy data centers useAll of this while it's mainly funded by companies getting loans from banks which means if this bubble crashes the world economy is fucked.sources: https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/tracking-trillions-the-assumptions-shaping-scale-of-the-ai-build-outhttps://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/openai-anthropic-ipo-finances-04b3cfb9https://www.bis.org/publications/bulletin-120-financing-ai-boom-cash-flows-debt.pdf
>>541859917>OpenAI is only going to have profit for the first time in 2030Who told you this? OpenAI is never making a profit. Even if there was a chance OpenAI was going to make a profit china will steal the model and release it for a fraction of price.
>>541860284It's in the picture of the thread. If china were to do that the entire u.s economy would probably collapse and im not sure they would do that considering they stopped the oil prices from rising by using their own reserves instead of buying.
>>541860544>It's in the picture of the thread.So you blindly believe OpenAI's down financially predictions? And if these predictions don't exist their share price tanks. Don't you think that's quite convenient?
>>541860634Exactly that's why this entire AI Growth is bullshit, the source even says that's before taxed and interest and they have every incentive to lie to investors.Well OpenAi is a private company and not publicly traded so they don't have shares but the point still stands. This entire growth is based on nothing
>>541859917Any info about how much governments are subsidizing this? Right now I have access to ChatGPT for free with some ads. I wonder how much this would cost without being subsidized.
>>541859917World economy is already fuxked.
>it's a bubleThis is completely irrelevant. The government will continue to fund it because they want AI for themselves. It's not about profits, it's about having the infrastructure to institute a Global Panopticon. That's why they want cameras everywhere, and verifications to use the internet. They want to watch everyone, everywhere, at all times, and the only way to do that is by using AI that can work 24/7 and flag any dissidence.
>>541860945wasn't the scope of my project to see how much it costs for the government to subsidize but i can tell you this, they are hugely energy intensive and resource intensive like water to cool them. The reason why you are able to use it for free is because they are burning a fuckton of cash from investors to make it possible. There was like an AI called soraai from openai which lasted like only 2 days because it was burning like 20 million a day just to make it free for everyone. The government isn't directly subsidizing this but a way i can think of it is the companies getting loans instead of using cash(see 3rd source i linked). They are getting these loans from banks which means when this entire thing collapses the united states gov either lets the banks collapse or bails them out like in 2008 and only way to bail them out is by printing money which causes inflation.
>>541861105https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/technology-media-and-telecommunications/our-insights/the-cost-of-compute-a-7-trillion-dollar-race-to-scale-data-centersbasically it costs 7 trillion dollars to build the infrastructure and get hardware for the data centers, if the government can continue to fund this even at a smaller scale for years to go on without collapsing from debt i would be impressed.You are probably correct in the second point, china already does that so there is no way to think that the united states can't do that.
>>54186110515-20 years ago multiple time travelers llost their lives trying to reverse this timeline so that it doesntt happen. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UgWGNAD_f0Ubut it did anyways
>>541861800>i would be impressed.They will simply pass the cost onto the people. Inflation is irrelevant to them when they own the economy, it just means bigger numbers on their banks.Anyone who thinks the AI bubble will "pop" is gullible and innocent
>>541859917>profitable by 2030 that's way sooner than I'd have expected, and easily within the realm of losses they can tank.there are successful businesses that ran on a deficit for way longer than that.
>>541859917https://isaiprofitable.com
>>541859917You don't say.Can't be very smart if you had to do a paper to figure that shit out. It's 5-7 companies shuffling "intent to buy" around with minimal units delivered. Always was.Line Go Up.
>>541859917>rando retard from white trash dick country vs 4 trillion usd sectorkys
>>541862229that is from their own data presented to investors before taxes and interest. Not to mention all of this is funded by corporate debt by taking loans from banks which means they need a higher margin on return of investments to not go bankrupt. Those "profits" are way lower than the average big tech industry standard.>>541862021Yeah inflation is irrelevant until inflation makes the dollar worth so low it loses status as the world's reserve currency. The government can't fix everything get over it. You really think the government will cover the dozens of trillions of shit investements in hardware becoming obsolete in 3 years with useless infrastructure?
>>541862444I already knew that but i had to choose a subject and i chose the ai one because it's the easiest one to prove the entire thing is a scam.>>541862494memeflag that thinks gdp inflated numbers mean something
>>541862632Heres a great business plan!We inject everyone with mind altering drugs and drop IQ by 20 points per year!we then flood the food market with poisons and drug all the woman with shit and mind altering drugs we then give them an AI toy to use for their corporate adult daycares to use so that we can make a profit and keep these drones retarded forever who only knows how to press buttons and judge one another.how do we profit from this??? well since nobody has a brain anymore they can use ai more but instead they are feeding themselves with more brainrot drugs instead of being productive theres your 15T investment and no return.
>>541859917wow i knew you were retarded and young but this might be the most retarded post you ever did.going to the moon wasnt profitable either you clown
>>541859917>comparing EBIT with EBITDA in a sector with enormous depreciation costswhat retarded analyst put this graph together kek
>>541863780and this excellent plan is from a scifi movie right.... right....?
>>541862500>"Yeah inflation is irrelevant until inflation makes the dollar worth so low it loses status as the world's reserve currency. "It's a good thing the global elites aren't working together, then, right?
>>541859917They will plug the big brains in. There will be a way, at any great cost. The furtherance of God consciousness is the purpose of the universe itself.
>>541859917We should put them in space
>>541865311he looks like pol pot in the bottom left square kek
>>541864624especially with such rapid depreciation of necessary hardware and a growing investment need. EBITDA just shifts the regonition of a cash expense backward slightly and always indicates lower costs than reality.
>>541865076next you will try to sell me the tale that they legalized opioids as non addictive painkillers corrupting respectful scientists - using the peer review system as a joke and raping sane oppositions claiming it's opioid -, and certainly not tried to get everyone on that stuff due to understanding, if doctors are monetarily incentivized to write such drugs on prescription, they certainly would not abuse their hypocratic oath and not point at the studies as guarantees of conducts..Certainly whatever family came up with such an ingenious evil plan would spend the rest of their lives in prison, while everyone abusing this misuse of power would have their degrees be revoked the least, or sent under a french ingenious invention where weight and sharp angles are used on a metal block, and repulled at certain perfect height for maximum effect at release, at a perfect place on town squares.. right?
bump
>>541859917my massive growth caused your mom to spit cumbubbles
Anyone who believes the cards are toast after three years is beyond retarded. They're cooking the books so they don't have to pay taxes. If they only last 3 years the market would be flooded with A100s by now that don't work but have very very valuable pieces on them. You fucking retards should take a big step back and re-assess your entire worldview if you genuinely fell for something as stupid as "cards only last 3 years"
>>541869049>2-3 years is the warranty time, isn't it?Cards under full load for 24/7 with perfect cooling is kinda the line drawn whenever the overused cards and the users average usage should give up still giving the precalculated profit margins.. but it's this is calculated for gaming usage and not data centers 24/7 varying load and constant thermal throattlingmy cards (AMD) kinda lasts 7-8 years and daily 4-5 hrs used moderate to high load, but always bought them with premium cooling and OC capaibility (better capacitors and perfect graded transistors - not the cheap ones and the first rolling off the factory, with higher probability of being faulty)microelectronics also corrode, so does sensors (car sensors - like crankshaft sensor -can go batshit after 8+ yrs, which wasn't that much of a hustle up until just a few were inside the engine, and now there are 1000s, so everyone of the should be replace after 8 years or constant getting faulty signals is increasing, and not being able to pass the yearly (here every 2 yrs) mechanic checks)
>>541861105This is all the UK's fault.
>>541859917You think that people are just going to give up having a genius personal assistant to talk to anytime they want?
>>541859917>They can't even plug the data centers in the electrical grid due to physical impossibilitiesStill they don't use solar PV and they are seriously looking into nuclear.Let this be lesson to everyone promoting solar PV, you can't use it to power anything at scale due to the intermediate nature of it and the batteries you'd need to cover worst case scenarios would be prohibitively expensive.
>>541859917>OpenAI is only going to have profit for the first time in 2030you are retarded if you think your conclusion will manifest in realioty, but go on.Screencap this. Open AI will never really turn a profit. Investment so far is what, 40bn? If it ever works it will get bought up by kikes and any 'profit' will go to their military budget. Screencap me this.
>>541869049>>541870537basically if loads are different profiles (data centers in this case - not gaming), meaning not whatever the warranty was established for (meaning gaming loads and average user usage is less tressful, due to electronics hate varying loads - thermal throttle cuts after reaching full loads, and this degrades the electronics worse than bitcoinfagging, with constant loads)they are better off to sell it after warranty is off as an used product, and account the depreciation as deductable tax write off, and just buy the new ones from the sell off (if also everyone sells it at the same time price plummets, and accounting gets headache, but you sadly need more cash before the tax year ends to rotate them)seems like another issue noone really thought about, what the fuck the market will do with used cards 2-3 yrs up(we presumed warranty is the same for the server parks, or presumed warranty is established on profit margins and reasonable engineering limits)
>>541859917Your entire premise is flawed because you are a low information person who thinks OpenAI is the most important or most advanced AI company because ChatGPT was the first modern AI model you heard about.Anthropic made a net profit last quarter.Google nets ~$100 billion per year.
>>541861800>if the government can continue to fund this The government isn't funding it, and no one is expecting the government to fund it in the future.
>>541859917The 3 year depreciation thing is less now. Partly because these fuckers are keeping GPU's in the data center even though nobody uses them. You can rent a 10 year old K40 or V100 instance from Amazon. Secondly, the newer ones are more useful because they figured out what features were useful around the ampere era, now its mainly about raw memory volume. But yeah they will never make that money back, lol. Its a scam to exfiltrate USA tech money to asia through gpu's.
>>541871889Don't worry once these AI businesses are also classified as too big to fail the government will be holding the bag when the bubble bursts, just like last time.>>54187243999% price depreciation in 10 years is terrible. Source: ebay.
>>541863780Actually the goyims fault, like imagine using drugs. Foids listen to singers talking about hating men it's just over. I guess if they destroy the united states israel won't get anymore free university food and whatever.>>541864541nice german retard u think openai predictions are true surely they are. 40b before taxes and interest btw>>541864624Can you expand on this i'd like to learn more about this, i got this from the wall street journal.>>541865105they may or may not work together, like netanyahu is banned by the international criminal court and shit and jews fight each other all the time, even during roman times when they were getting killed jews fighted each others.
>>541869049see pic related>>541871450maybe i forgot to say this but it's based on their projections before taxes and interest. Next time read my other responses you fucking retard. I never said this shit was economically feasible.>>541871693surely bro the biggest company fully focused on ai going bankrupt won't cause any damage to the stock markets being pumped up because of ai. Literally a bigger collapse than 2008 its going to be.>>541871889it actually is funding it by giving cheap credit money to banks in which companies get loans from these banks
>>541869049good luck finding tasks for the old ones in an arms race for the better models, while already reaching max works. Add no sight of AGI and models already plateaued performance wise.Add the only those makes profit, who have the best models..>cold war electric boogaloo copycatUS vs USSR overspent on military, whoever can't keep up loses the leading role and all the world economy stands behind the strongest, US cut out the competitor with sanctions and wins, hurray cold war won>except this is a free marketin short, the company with the better model gets the subscription everyone else loses subscription (other company comes up with the better model, users migrate, old profitable company lost unless capable to retake the leading role - constant need of money supply, while no money influx from subscription, since they migrated) Meaning: competitor not eliminatable and add china can wreck you with free models, not respecting IPs, or providing cheaper, better architectures, once they scale up production.. There is also the jolly joker issue of quantum computing using fraction of energy usage (cheaper to run products)
>>541873550>Can you expand on this i'd like to learn more about this, i got this from the wall street journal.sure ill try explaining as briefly as i can. capex is the huge amounts of money they are spending on data centres. but these data centres being an asset lose value over time so depreciation basically splits that capex over a number of years rather than all in one year for the purpose of the P&L to mimic the lost value over the useful life of that asset that you spent a shitload of capex on. then onto EBIT and EBITDA. EBIT are earnings before income and taxes (but they account for the deduction of depreciation). EBITDA are earnings before income, tax AND depreciation & amortisation. so they dont deduct for depreciation. in an industry with HUGE capex spend every year not deducting the depreciation every year and then comparing it to a similar company using a metric that does so makes no sense. also as another anon said the investment need is huge every year and the depreciation here is rapid. so basically it is not apples to apples comparison. another point is that this data centre capex is growth capex rather than maintenance capex as it is not capex that is needed to keep the lights on, they are using the money to build more and expand, so in some respects even their EBIT is slightly misleading (a bit inflated) as the current capex will be higher than depreciation but hopefully i explained what you were looking for?
fuck Ai
>>541859917Annnnd here is why you are wrong. We have even BTFO Moores Law by a Quadratic degree. It's parabolichttps://youtu.be/wDBy2bUICQY?is=oqL3Kya9xS5UJygt
>>541875953And here is one of the foremost experts talking about the issuehttps://youtu.be/SnKM6IFzxwM?is=R7hW7-wKhWiiWF8g
>>541870537AI chip usage is WAY worse than gaming full load, precisely because it's far more inconsistent. Chips rot not mainly due to thermal wear and electron migration, but thermal cycles. I'm not that big an expert but I do know if you're going to transplant data about GPUs under gaming loads over to AI chips you'd get some pretty damn faulty and wildly overly optimistic predictions.
The biggest technological revolution of all time and nothing but worthless troons seething. YOU are obsolet.
>>541875953>length of tasks AIs can doyou can't be serious.. length of tasks AIs can do:"... They are unable to reliably handle even relatively low-skill, computer-based work like remote executive assistance. It is clear that capabilities are increasing very rapidly in some sense, but it is unclear how this corresponds to real-world impact."https://metr.org/blog/2025-03-19-measuring-ai-ability-to-complete-long-tasks/Good luck troubleshooting 100000000000hrs of AI slops being made either code or video, and god know how many hours hallucinated...it just means it can make up data in such amount, and nothing about what percent of it is usable... it's like a bullshit generator, being measured by the amount of pages it can write full
>>541874917You explained it very nicely thank you, i will add this info in my paper. Again thank you for taking the time to explain it to me.
>>541859917Wait until you find out about quantum computing and how it was completely ignored for the sake of a grift. If they were ever serious, all that money and resources would have been invested there instead of shitty LLMs. It was always a joke and grift to publically nuke the economy.Technically the economy has been fucked since the banks became insolvent in 2019 but they pretend otherwise and prays that nobody notices.
>>541874288Based knower of quantum computing. Been a thing for over 10 years and was mysteriously skipped over for LLM garbage. Its a farce.>>541879224Don't forget the corrupted data inputs, since they do not filter their data sets. Not to mention the limiters and filters built in to prevent 'nooticing'.Anyway OP I suggest checking out quantum computing and the corruption of their utilized data sets which doesn't filter out bot, shilling, and AI content.
>>541859917Nice work. How many tokens did you spend, Rajesh?
>>541859917nigga it takes business like 10+ years to truly become profitable
>>541862374>the revenue is already half the total expense thus far and most of these investments arent even built/completeuh oh doomer sisters.....
>>541869049>Anyone who believes the cards are toast after three years is beyond retarded.They are overvolted and overclocked to the max from the factory.
>>541859917>The hardware used in data center gets depreciated every 3 years and data centers get more expensive as time progressesCoreweave a "neocloud" has claimed that they are contracting A100s from 2020 into 2029. Assuming they aren't straight up lying (very possible since they have huge debt and the GPUs are collateral). Personally I am choosing to believe they really are renting out these GPUs from 2020. Immediate demand for compute is huge right now. Overbuilding data centers is likely but not any time soon.>They can't even plug the data centers in the electrical grid due to physical impossibilitiesIndeed. That is why you are seeing a lot of "behind-the-meter" power being generated on site with gas turbines being built by GE Vernova, Caterpillar, and Bloom Energy. These companies are citing huge backlogs in orders for years to come.
>>541859917I like how they're so optimistic about their models that are uselessWinner is whoever stops being scared about being called racists etc and therefore saves most of the "training" costs and simultaneously giving actually working model
>>541859917OP’s is borderline retarded and his chart is the tell and he still doesn’t know what a GPU is. Datacenter silicon isn’t your RTX 5090. An H100/B200 is training-obsolete in ~18 months the second Jensen ships the next stack. Inference can limp 2–3 more years on the cascade, which is why hyperscalers stretch depreciation to 5–6 years on paper while the training fleet is already dead. Book six, burn two. That’s the trick.Same problem on your desk. DLSS 5 hits tomorrow in NBA 2K27, 50-series Tensor cores only. Not upscaling anymore — a gen-AI renderer rewriting faces and lighting every frame. Nvidia’s graphs are 6x multi-frame-gen cope. Strip the fake frames and a 5090 is barely 60 at 4K Ultra. They demoed it on two 5090s at GTC and “optimized” it onto one card that still eats half your FPS. Consumer AI is slop that costs frames. Datacenter AI is slop that costs the grid. You don’t just plug a 100 MW hall into the wall. Interconnect queues are years. Density is $15–20M per MW vs $10M last gen. EU CO2 rules and NIMBYs add delay. OpenAI’s own books: first real profit 2030 including training. Until then it’s VC, bank debt, and private credit. BIS already flagged the shift off cash flow onto leverage. If token revenue doesn’t cover the yearly refresh, the collateral is GPUs two generations behind. That’s the bubble.https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/tracking-trillions-the-assumptions-shaping-scale-of-the-ai-build-outhttps://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/openai-anthropic-profitability-e9f5bcd6https://www.bis.org/publ/bisbull120.pdfhttps://www.eurogamer.net/dlss-5-release-date-nvidia-nba-2k7-frame-ratehttps://www.techpowerup.com/review/nvidia-dlss-5-technical-preview/
>>541861105this but if they won't ever get AGI because goverments want it to believe 2+2=5 (like eunuchs are real women and other bullshit) and if they won't lobotomize it and do get AGI it will be "racist" and wouldn't support their baby blood drinking and kiddie mutilations
>>541872880They get bailed out you don't.That's why I wouldn't invest anything into ai shit personally unless it's post crash too late to this run
>>541861105Brazil anon is wise
>>541859917>OpenAI is only going to have profit for the first time in 2030implying this company is going insolvent in the next 6 months
>>541884270Then Where's all the after market A100s? Nigger I've been farming crypto since 2017, I still have a 1080 that I retired afyer 8 years of use. You are all nigger cattle and deserve everything bad that befalls you.
