Pic-rel charts display 10-year government bond yields and 10-year forward rates. From mid-2020s lows, both series surged sharply into September 2026, often exceeding levels seen during the 2013 taper tantrum and reaching multi-year highs in several markets.This synchronized global rise in yields reflects a currently ongping debt shock. Countries such as Japan, France, Italy and the UK are not experiencing strong economic expansions, yet their borrowing costs are climbing in lockstep with others. Markets are pricing higher term premiums and fiscal risks as public debt burdens remain elevated after years of large deficits.Governments face mounting debt-service costs that crowd out other spending and tighten fiscal space. Attempts to contain yields through buybacks or other interventions risk being tested aggressively by markets (already happens in case of the US). Such efforts can weaken currencies and drive investors toward precious metals and other real assets, accelerating a debasement dynamic.For Western economies already carrying high debt loads, the combination of rising yields, potential currency pressure and constrained policy options creates a precarious situation. Persistent upward pressure on borrowing costs could trigger broader financial stress, higher inflation, reduced investment and erosion of confidence in major sovereign bond markets, with severe consequences for growth and political stability in a near term. Only a huge war, CBDC implementation and/or rapid depopulation combined with AI/robotics adoption can save the West now amid its growing/critical inability to secure glibal shipping lanes and to fight for limited Earths resources proven by the Hormuz blockade that the collective West cant break. Such blockades, wars, attacks on cargo/tanker ships, destruction of energy infrastructure, piracy - all of this would only grow now, undermining value of Western currencies and political influence of the West.
Frances govt debt level is approaching the same level as Greece was during the sovereign debt crisis. Interest rates are moving higher. Frances debt load, as a percentage of their economy, is approaching 120%. The market lost confidence in Greece at 125%. The difference is, Frances national debt is 10x larger than Greece was. Germany cant bailout France.
>>542391733>both series surged sharply into September 2026zoom out bot
>>542392276>>542391733>AI spamming retards has no idea how bond markets workFUCKING NIGGER
>>542391733The powers that be have a new system that has been in the development for decades now, ready to be rolled out in the coming years. It will operate in parallel starting sometime this year and by the next decade it will be fully operational as the Agenda 2030 goals are slowly being implemented.There will be no collapse, no violence, no uprising, no world war, no draft, no revolution, no killing of jews or politicians or other such fantasies. Instead there will be law & order, compliance and total surveillance until the very end. AI will be at the center of it all. The Great Reset is inevitable.
Is it just that rising US rates due to AI and Trump's reputational suicide "raise all boats" governments need to offer higher rates to compete?
>>542395009You can say that France is "too big to fail" compared to Greece. Yer France is entering a critical fiscal red zone, despite its massive economic scale, and this is grounded in several severe structural vulnerabilities imo. With total public debt sitting around 120% of GDP, every single percentage point increase in borrowing yields translates now into a massive compounding interest burden that rapidly displaces spending on public services, defense, green transition initiatives etc. Fiscal consolidation under these conditions requires steep spending cuts or politically explosive tax hikes, both of which face a deeply fragmented French National Assembly and widespread public opposition to structural reforms. Unlke post-crisis Italy which maintained primary budget surpluses for years, France suffers from persistent, multi-decade primary deficits. It leaves it dependent on continuous new debt issuance just to pay existing bills and run daily state operations. This makes Frances sheer size a double-edged sword: if bond vigilantes demand a significantly higher risk premium on French government debt, the ESM lacks the financial firepower to execute a full sovereign bailout without overwhelming total Eurozone resources. Finally, because France operates within the rigid confines of the Eurozone, it lacks an independent central bank to devalue its currency or monetize debt drectly, creating a slow-moving structural crisis where political paralysis and rising interest costs stadily erode both fiscal sovereignty and market confidence. I do not invest in the EU at all. My portfolio is currently 65% China and 35% USrael - Chinese portfolio with very juicy dividends, by the way
>>542396737>>542395009I am OP btw, just changed IP xD
>only AI/robotics adoption can save the WestLOL
>>542396737>My portfolio is currently 65% China and 35% USraelCurrently, as of Sep 2026, reaching 70% China, 30% USrael shares. I sold some US stuff and bought more China stuff.
Zoom out nibba
>>542397649The 1980s yield spikes are fundamentally not comparable to today. During that era, the Western industrial base was robust, and inflation was driven by supply-side oil shocks. Critically, the subsequent disinflation was exported from the West through trade and globalization as they offshored production. Over the intervening decades the West m deindustrialized significantly. China has ascended to become the worlds manufacturer, responsible for roughly 45% of global output, a staggering concentration of productive capacity. The United States and other Western nations now rely heavily on imported goods. Todays synchronized rise in yields is not about Western central banks aggressively fighting inflation to regain control of their own economies. It is a symptom of a global debt shock and fiscal unsustainability. Western governments are trapped, having accumulated massive peacetime debt burdens that were manageable only at near-zero rates. They can no longer easily raise rates to crush inflation without risking sovereign defaults or financial system collapse, nor can they grow their way out with an eroded industrial base. Attempting to suppress yields will debase their currencies which is a key reason gold and real assets are now being sought as a refuge.
>>542395009Each year the usa debt market births two Nvidias
>>542391733what I don't understand is how countries like germany which have no economic expansion and also not much debt also have the same bond price crashsurely germany is the most raped here right. paying the price but didn't even get the benefit.
>>542395040>FED posting
>>542392276The UK and France is going to declare insolvency and ask for an IMF bailout within a year.Then they will lose all their military toys and will be stuck in the typical third world debt trap, forever paying interest on dollar loans they can never pay back. Game over. Thats one way America can extend its remaining lifespan as a declining superpower. The only way for France and the UK to escape that debt trap would be if the dollar ceased to be used as a global currency.
>>542396737>My portfolio is currently 65% China and 35% USrael - Chinese portfolio with very juicy dividends, by the wayInteresting, which chink companies do you own?
>>542397856>The 1980s yield spikes are fundamentally not comparable to today. During that era, the Western industrial base was robust, and inflation was driven by supply-side oil shocks.Yes. The West was also the primary oil consumer. An economic slump in the west meant lower oil prices because almost all global was exported to Europe and America, meaning that a recession cured itself with lower energy prices. That wont happen today. In terms of real world purchasing power per capita, Europe and America was much richer back then. The decay in living standards since 1980 is enormous but millenials and zoomzooms doesnt understand that because people didnt have iphones and instagram back then, so life must have been hell.
>>542398493I dont sell my portfolio and i dont show it for free but i can post a screenshot of my old post.
>>542399054lol
>>542391733>Only a huge war, CBDC implementation and/or rapid depopulation combined with AI/roboticsHow about all three, because that's what is going to happen.
The future looks dark. A collapse is coming. If I were in charge of the US I would invade Iran and Yemen. Sure a lot of people will die but it will lower energy prices and bring stability
>>542399285It is worth to listen to my advices if we talk about investing. But i give them very rare on /pol/. But they are always worth fortune xD 17 Oct 2025> I bought shitloads of Intel too lately because its price is very-very lowhttps://archive.4plebs.org/pol/thread/519118290/#51912569025 Jan 2026>Intel stocks crushed recently again, so i bought more of it. But i doubt stocks would collapse a lot because of money printers.https://archive.4plebs.org/pol/thread/526899739/#52690702If somebody bought CXMT when i bought it, he would make 285% today. I am a pro and i support myself entirely from market since 2018 when i sold my company
>>542399636Would you please tell the CEO of china to stop taking shits on anything I invest in. It goes up 2% and then falls 12%
>>542397649an almost identical set of circumstances to that which caused the spike in the 80s is causing the same today---down to the progenyfind the man at center of the 1992 savings & loan senate hearings and you'll have the progeny>the descendants of the british east india co. will see you now
>>542399732I buy and forget. I bought Xiaomi in 2018, and since then it gave me around 130% return. I dont care about price fluctuations for long years. But i prefer Chinese companies with high dividends. I also bought China Shenhua Energy in 2018 too. It provided me with both high returns, share price surged +160% plus very high dividends: annual yields of 7%-12% returning over HK$16 per share in cash, almost fully reimbursing the original investment. The talented and hardworking Chinese people work on me so i wouldnt have to work xD
>>542391733toxicity released on 9/11 marking the birth of globohomo open border invasions death of westTell the shitskinsTell the shitskins that arriveTell the shitskinsTell the shitskins that arriveyou don't need to multiplyyou don't need to multiplyyou don't need to multiplyyou don't need to multiplyDie
>>542399636Thanks for the interesting threadHow much starting capital do you think someone needs if they’re investing (not trading) over 5-10 year time horizon?Which valuation methods do you use and which sectors do you think will do well over 5-10 years?
>>542400786I invest higher tens $M. Long term microinvesting without leverage is not my thing, it is rather pointless. xD I also gamble with futures contracts from time to time (like average 3 times a year) when i notice smth exceptional. But my success rate is near 100%, i am a prodigy. I dont recommend highly leveraged markets to anyone, it ends up with personal tragedies, bankruptcies, family breakups and suicides in 99% of individual small-fish investors. It is only good for hedge funds and pros like me.
>>542401072lol
>>542401177Nothing to laugh about. Like +95% of "average Joes" lose all the money in 2 years period when they try to compete with the market, especially deluded clients of market maker brokers whose business model revenue is entirely based on your loss xD
>>542401072Ok but I asked what valuation methods do you use to value companies?Money is made on the delta between price and value but estimating value is more of a craft than a hard science.
>>542391733What should I do to protect my ass here? I'm so lost
>>542401406There is no set of methods/techniques etc, no magic technical analysis solutions xD Market speculation is an art like playing a guitar. Ask Joe Satriani what he does to play guitar so well - thats very similar to asking me about my investing/speculation ways xDYou need to know only one rule: buy low, sell high xD
>>542401668> doesn’t know the difference between investing and speculatingThere ARE valuation methods you can use to value a company, for example by discounting future cashflows. It depends on the sector and type of company as far as I understand.How much did you lose? ;)
>>542401900I lost nothing in a netto way since 2018 desu. I only gained. The simple statistical rule is that the more you speculate (buy/sell), the more you lose because brokers earn on transactions. If we talk about this massive Intel purchase i did in 2025 (>>542399636), it was a set of factors. In 2025 Intel presented a generational turnaround entry point as distress pricing temporarily decoupled from its underlying structural dominance. The market mistakenly priced Intel solely as a declining legacy CPU vendor whike ignoring its 18A node execution. At the same time agentic AI workloads sparked a massive resurgence in high-margin x86 server CPU demand that restored pricing power to data center segment. Also massive CHIPS Act capital guarantees and strategic mega-deals established Intel as USraeli sole leading-edge national foundry. It is always a combination of ever-changing factors. And my intellect plus intuition.
>>542391733Bro we are so fucked, it's almost funny at this point. There is no way Europe can service it's debt anymore. Same for the US and Japan. The US needs to taco ASAP or all of NATO is royally fucked.All i have now is EUR in cash and gold and silver.All i wanted was a fucking house. I will probably buy one next year for 100g Gold and complain that that was too much afterwards, lmao.
