Realistically, is there any path China can take that leads to them eventually supplanting the US as the world's dominant power?
they already did
>>542470483not yet
>>542470482They don't really want that.
>>542470485Well, what do they want then? China is still lagging behind the US in most metrics.
>>542470482No. China could surpass the US economically but has no means of becoming a superpower with global influence rivaling that of the US.
>>542470486They aren’t as concerned with being ahead of the US right now, though they do want to do it eventually, in the latter half of this century according to their plan. For now, piggybacking off of the US being the world’s policeman and warmonger is convenient for them as it contrasts with the global image of “peaceful China” and allows them to negotiate better with the CIA-battered third world countries. Their main priority is internal development of their own nation via manufacturing and global trade, not Soviet-style “overtake the US”.
>>542470488China is fucking up african countries too
This thread has absolutely nothing to do with history or humanities. OP didn't even bother putting "historically speaking" in his post. Lazysage
>>542470489Well yeah, it’s not like you or the West in general cares about them anyway. The global image is all the Chinese care about.
>>542470490I was originally going to title the thread >"Realistically, is there any path China COULD'VE TAKEN that leads to them eventually supplanting the US as the world's dominant power?"But I changed it since I thought the current title sounded better. My mistake.
>>542470484>nominal gdpBullshit metric
>>542470484
>posting about a future scenario on a history forumwhy not just go to /pol/ and stay there?
>>542470482Has China ever lost a war to fucking Iran??
>>542470493China also has a population of 1 billion people, anon. It's not exactly fair to compare them with the US in a metric like that.
>>542470496uh... excuse me sweaty, but america beat iran at least 30 times this year
>>542470494Steel doesn't grow out of the ground anon, not sure if you know this
>>542470496China can't even take a small little island a few miles off its own coast, be quiet anon.
>>542470493As we all know, people with degrees from Ching Xing Chong University have far more hiring opportunity than graduates from Harvard or UCLA. Don't take it from me though, take it from Xi Xinping's own daughter. Or maybe don't
>China can't even take a small little isl-ACKkkkkkkkk
>>542470502Anon...https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guantanamo_Bay_Naval_Base
>>542470486>China is still lagging behind the US in most metrics.No one thinks this. Not even the most hawkish and anti china of republican senators.
>>542470504>No one thinks this. Pretty sure most people think this though
>>542470504It's just revealed preference, anon. When the changoid diaspora starts flooding back to the middle kingdom you might have a point, until then probably not
>>542470504https://www.chemistryworld.com/news/more-than-half-of-all-retracted-papers-are-from-china-analysis-finds/4023197.article
>>542470504>ASPI has advocated for the procurement of the Northrop Grumman B-21 Raider by Australia.[22]>In December 2021, Twitter removed 2,160 accounts linked to Chinese regional and state propaganda campaigns as a result of analysis by ASPI.[26][27][28]>At the time it was 100% funded by the Australian Department of Defence, but this had fallen to 43% in the 2018-19 financial year.[14][15] In 2020, Myriam Robin in the Australian Financial Review identified three sources of funding, in addition to the Department of Defence. ASPI receives funding from defence contractors such as Lockheed Martin, BAE Systems, Northrop Grumman, Thales Group and Raytheon Technologies. It also receives funding from technology companies such as Microsoft, Oracle Australia, Telstra, and Google. Well no shit they're going to publish "research" like this, they need China to be a threat to justify their own existence
We should deny China has a possible rising power and a threat for as long as men have voices to deny that eventual reality.
>>542470509People deny it because it is fake. The only people who claim that China is powerful are people with vested interest in causing panic and fear so that they get a bigger budget or the chinks themselves. You know why when I turn on the news I hear about Europe or America or their actions? You know why I hear about the local robbery instead of fucking China? It is because China is so fucking irrelevant that a random robbery in bumfuck street where $12 was stolen at gunpoint is more interesting and more impactful that fucking China. Nobody cares about China except online where it is full of shills.
>>5424704821/2Before WW2 the US had already surpassed the UK as an economic and industrial power yet it still lacked the diplomatic networks and international control the UK possessed. WW2 proved to be the perfect catalyst; the presence of US troops abroad and the need for a nation without a vast legacy of colonies or former colonies (unlike UK, France or Germany) to safeguard "international rights", paved the way for the US to become the world's police. The craziest part is that none of this was premeditated, while one might imagine a Machiavellian plot orchestrated by the American government, the reality is that isolationism was the prevailing stance among both the American public and the government. Of course, that isn't to say there were no war hawks, after all, the imperialism of the late 19th century was still alive and well. Rather, they simply seized opportunities as they arose, such as the exchange of destroyers for British bases in the Caribbean
>>5424704822/2What I want to say is that the US rise to this position was arguably inevitable, given its status as the leading economic power and the likelihood that a declining power would eventually require its assistance. Watching Trump, with his evident fondness for strongmen, happily make concessions to China makes me wonder if history might repeat itself. The crucial difference, however, is that the US-China dynamic is not the same as the US-UK dynamic; the UK did not feel threatened by an American-led world order, given the shared language, culture, "special relationship" and all that. I cannot envision the US signing a neo-Atlantic Charter with China holding the pen. Yet, a time may come when the US requires China's aid and is forced to make concessions. When might that happen? who knows, perhaps the perfect storm for China will never materialize, and the world will become truly multipolar. A thousand different scenarios could unfold. As I said, you cannot predict the future and make a machiavellian plan to attain super power status, at best you can do what China is doing and just wait for the best
I think there's something to the 'do nothing, win' memeAmerica is self-destructing and lashing out violently to stem its decline, China can just keep making shit, growing its economy, and cultivating good relations with the global south and any US vassals who want to switch to a less erratic partner
>>542470499Wowie with its vast natural resources, America might one day become as wealthy as Russia!
>>542470482Do nothing and wait for the U.S. to collapse under its own weight
>>542470515They don't want the usa to collapse. They just want them to bleed out without too violent of a break down. Im sure China is worried about the houthi and Iranians control over the straits that could strangle trade even if theyre cool with them now.
>>542470496How much oil did Iran export last month?
The question comes down to if the chosen Chinese technological-industrial policy path is a winner compared to US. Right now China does not seem to a winner in cultivating human capital in the highest tech echelons in comparison to Western World, while their bulk manufacturing scale is undoubted - but also propped by worse firms than U.S and an independing demographic cliff that makes their post 2035 prospects look difficult.
>>542470515Why would they want that? They would suffer if the US collapsed. The US collapsing would led to a domino effect where every other nation that is tied economically to the US will also suffer economic collapse or at least suffer a depression. China losing economic ties with the US would be bad enough, but it would also mean losing ties with every single country that is likewise connected to the US economically too. They just want to US to slowly stagnate while they continue to rise. Nothing extreme.
>>542470494Why is this chart pretending 165 Mn is 40% as much as 961 Bn?
>>542470482No here is the projected populations for each country at 2100. China is in a demographic trap because of the one child policy retardation.
>>542470482They already won
>>542470482Another /his/ thread banished to the realm of chaos and darkness
>>542470482China don't want to be leader. They want to be prosperous but they don't give a shit about what happen outside their borders. They never expect other people to be like the chinese. They think everyone else is too dumb to learn chinese anyway.
>>542470482Making friends with their Asians neighbors to form a blocBut they're too autistic and hold grudges
