Uhhh I thought it was practically impossible for the dems to win the senate with so few seats up for grabs, what happened?
He repeatedly shat himself in interviews
>what happened?The Trump crime family normalized child rape, sex trafficking and warmongering.
>>543096119That has been the case since 2016
even if they "sweep" they won't accomplish anything
>>543096010>what happened?Israel
>>543096010>foreigner obsessed with America thinks polls are realYou should look into state-assisted suicide.
>>543097400this isn't a pollalso your president is obsessed with my country
>>543096119To appeal to the common burger. Clever tactic.
>>543097504Lol it's even worse, it's a foreign betting site. Gee, what are the odds foreigners who hate America and Trump want to see libtards back in power so our country? This is even more worthless than a poll.
These betting sites always do this and whales switch up last minute. Republicans will win midterms in USA and I have a lot of money riding on that prediction
>>543096787If they sweep they can literally kick Trump out of office. Most likely will. Then again this was probably all planned in advance to usher in socalism. By the jews.
>>543097661The wisdom of financially backed crowds is actually way more accurate than a poll
>>543097785That's extremely unlikely.
>>543097785they won't. their only real hope is retaining the senate and even that's looking increasingly unlikely.all trump had to do was not launch a retarded war because nothing demoralizes and sinks a party faster than sky high gas prices.
>>543097785Then you can just get in now and make a lot of easy money
>>543097796> degenerate gamblers are great at finance!Lol shut the fuck up, Ahmed.
>>543098660Some of them aren't, but the ones that are tend to bet much bigger than the ones that aren't
>>543099359>some of them aren'tMost of them aren't or they wouldn't be gambling>but most of them areLol the fucking cope. OK kid, you keep thinking gamblers are money-savvy big shots instead of the addict losers they actually are. No wonder the left continues to lose with reasoning like this.
>>543099462Then take their money
>>543099576Again: foreign betting site. And I wouldn't anyway, gambling for suckers.
>>543096010Betting sites are extremely vulnerable to politicized whale accounts using campaign money to move the markets. Harris benefited from exactly that in 2024 her odds kept climbing or further distancing Trump’s even after clear negative developments like losing the Teamsters endorsement and RFK Jr. joining Trump events that should have hurt her position but somehow improved her numbers instead.When a market only has tens of millions riding on it, a campaign or PAC can dump just a couple million and meaningfully shift the odds. Back in 2024, roughly 20% of the entire market was concentrated in a handful of whale accounts that kept pumping money into Harris.
>>543099462https://predscope.com/guide/prediction-market-accuracyI don't actually expect anything I link you to convince you because you seem retarded, but it's in my nature
>>543096787Neither will Trump. And even worse, it will put them in an even stronger position when they sweep 2028 when the map is even more favorable with rats like Cruz up for reelectionA dem is going to come in with strong majorities in both houses and all the all the executive power Trump arrogated for himself. Rightoids will be wishing Trump lost 2024.
>>543096119Both literally and figuratively.
>>543099718>See I provide sources, no it doesn't matter this is a site paid to promote betting sitesLol, LMAO even
>>543096010>what happenedleftists are violent and are cheating
Iran holds all the cards now. They got orange pedo by the balls and will squeeze them harder than Epstein's bought kids.
>>543099718Some of the examples they hold up as proof of accuracy are straight-up bullshit. Take 2024 Harris was ahead across the markets for most of that election, and they only flipped at the last second once the race was already clearly over early on election night.It’s like a bookie screaming that horse 1 has it locked in the whole way, even after the horse stumbles right out of the gate, then switching the call to horse 4 right at the finish line and acting like he nailed it all along.On top of that, these markets have a habit of getting ridiculously pedantic about what their “calls” actually mean and disputing outcomes to avoid paying out. Polymarket gets called out for this kind of thing regularly.Not much of a metric of accuracy if places are only taking credit for the data right at the end of an event. It would be bizarre if any market still saw a majority share for the obviously losing side once the election is about to be called
>>543100335https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2024why do you lie
>>543099718Lol your source is a site paid to promote those odds-making gambling sites. What a fucking loser you are.
>>543100969deboonk the numbers instead of purity testing the motivethe guy above couldn't
>>543096010It was, that literally how bad Trump and his admin are fucking up right now. They had complete control of government and still fucked everything up. Trump is a fucking moron to let Israel/Iran deconstruct and unmake his mandate. A complete fucking fool.
>>543100969https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=6617059There are a lot more of theseLet me guess, all paid for by big gambling (which doesn't benefit at all from being deemed accurate, they are taking your money either way)
>>543100912Because that’s literally what the data shows. Harris was nominated in August and instantly jumped to ahead of trump right as a bunch of whale accounts also started to get created simpler slightly in September while also rebounding numerous times despite her not enjoying a single positive even during that period, and then the odds stay hyper competitive until October going into November is the only time the markers even started to move towards the actual elections results where it was blatantly clear she wasn’t going to win. So yes polymarket odds where blatantly nonsensical for the bulk of her time as a candidate and only started to course correct when it was blatantly over.
>>543097790I'd take socialism over this kosher capitalism that they are running right now any day of the week.
>>543101523It's funny how when you get caught in one lie you just make up a different story and pretend it never happenedMust be a convenient way to live life>and they only flipped at the last second once the race was already clearly over early on election night
>>543097785>Republicans will win midterms in USA
>>543101660Except that is accurate The markets predicted a at best competitive race at worst assumed a Harris victory almost here entire time as the candidate and they all just so happened to see whale accounts only interested in one market and had millions to blow on it with the markers only adjusting very late into the election when whale accounts and wish fulfillment money dumping wasn’t worth shit.You can see it in the aggregate data for the election between multiple markets, Harris was massively over valued right out of the gate and only dropped down to a realistic value once it was close to the finish
>>543101492>which doesn't benefit at all from being deemed accurateYou are super low-IQ and gullible. Think for ten seconds a little more about what you just said. Goddamn, you are a fucking retard.
>>543101660By lie you mean he clearly expanded on his original thesis why these betting markets are horseshit for prognostication? Guy, you can just admit you were hoodwinked and duped like the sucker you are.
>>543102075>Except that is accurate>Posts picture that shows that it was in fact not accurateHow do you even feed yourself
Trying to be as neutral as possible, do Dems actually think they have a shot at Texas? Every fucking election for the past 25 years has been TEXAS IS GOING BLUE DEMS ARE FINALLY GOING TO FLIP TEXAS and it never happens. Beto had a shot at it in 2018 (this was before he said he wanted to ban guns) since Dems did good that year and he was running against Ted Cruz who everybody including other Republicans hated, and he still lost. There's no chance Texas turns blue this year. Not saying it will never happen but it's still at least 10 years away from happening.
>>543101492Did you know kushner is one of the big investors in polymarket?
>>543102629Alright so how do you read the chart then?>Harris becomes candidate in august >instantly leap frogs Trump >runs ahead or above him the entire time outside of a September slump that she immediately recovers >crashes late October into November Are you counting her entire purple line when she was the actively not running for the presidency or what?
>>543096787Which is why I'm not voting at all. I just shill the D vote to piss off MIGA, I would never actually believe they'd help us.
>>543103023>they only flipped at the last second once the race was already clearly over early on election nightKill yourself retard, this is your claim. meanwhile in reality they show trump way ahead a month leading up to the election and most of the time before then, too.The rest is just you schizo rambling because you are unable to fathom that gambling odds develop over time
>>543097951today everyone got their letters in the mail that effective january 1st if you were on medicaid you're losing your care, the gop can kiss ever getting elected again goodbye, voting dem for the rest of my life.
>>543096010>D Sweep>D Senate, R House>R Senate, D House>R Sweep>OtherWhat's the "Other" outcome in this scenario?Trump declares martial law?
>>543101755>Trump admin regularly exposed betting and winning based on their actions>Kushner investing larger amounts into polymarket >Trump admin sueing states for restrictions on polymarket and other betting sites>Site says Dems are ahead Lol, LMAO even Not only is it a red wave, but loan sharks are going to be hunting troons
>>543096119And loyal maga fans like me wore diapers in solidarity against your tranny retardation. Seethe.
>>543103241
>>543103194>today everyone got their letters in the mail that effective january 1st if you were on medicaid you're losing your careI'll take things that never happened for $500, Alex.
>>543103459its real they did, and i know because i got one myself.
>>543096659>The Trump crime family normalized child rape, sex trafficking and warmongering.and bribery, theft in multiple manners, destroying the economy for israel, letting our armed forces die for israel, sucking cock for israel.
>>543096010Ok cool but what will change if it happens?
>>543103176You can go back and find articles only starting to bitch about the market odds very late into October because that’s when they swung against Harris and it was far too late for any meaningful momentum swing from either side. Is my statement of Harris up until the very end correct in that context? No, we call this hyperbole. Does this instead me Harris was always valued accurately the entire race and where a honest market? No they where pretty blatantly dominated by ideologues and campaigns dumping money until people only intrested in the potential profits started making rational bets. And then sites claim after the election “man we sure called that one” when their predators where wrong for the bulk of the markets life.
>>543103843>No, we call this hyperbole.This is pathetic even for a migger.
>>543096010>>543096119>>543096659>>543096702These london based british mi6 glowniggers really hate USA and Trump /They want USA to collapse. They have TDS and creating THOUSANDS of anti-white, anti-whitemale, anti-repubican and anti-Trump threads on pol daily. You lost , mi6 trannies. Fake 'polls" won't help you.
>>543103400Bush is a CIA family, they are reporting to german kings based in London, Holstein-Gottorps / That's why CIA, Bushes and Pentagon started 25 world wars.
>>543103553You need ointment for your butthole?
>>543104010>>543103400>>543103176>>543102629>>543101660>>543100912This is a britihs mi6 glownigger on VPN. He posts SHIT and LIES on pol.
>>543104010Then what is your version of events? The markers were always well reasoned and definitely not bias just people making pragmatic calls? Is that why the markets actively went further in Harris favor when she could secure the teamsters endorsement or when RFK joined Trump? What explains her late October collapse? Did everyone who was all in on brat summer suddenly realize a retarded jeet pretending to be a nigger pretending to be middle class was actually retarded? Either the betting markets where unreliable because of shady accounts dumping absurd amounts on her odds or the markets are unreliable because they will pretty heavily ride the market one way until last second when it course corrects to an absurd degree.
>>543104176Their budget must be running low, because that shill is a jeet on a vpn
>>543096787They'll still make internet ID mandatory
>>543101257>odds go one way and then are changed at the end to favor the actual winnerThis is why you are a gullible retard. Gambling sites are to separate you from your money. What worth is a stat that says X will beat Y for 4 months then in the last week switches their prediction that Y will best X? You're suffering from Malcolm Gladwell horseshit where you can identify a pattern only after the event is concluded, not the accuracy of the initial prediction itself. Again, with sincerity, kill yourself.
>>543103478>trust me, bro!Kill. Yourself.
>>543104345You are such a fucking midwit lmao. Everyone on the betting odds in 2024 was pricing in a trump victory as early as September. The only reason Harris "leaped" was because of the novelty of Brandon dropping out, but even in her honeymoon period, by September the money was pointing towards trump winning. Your graph literally shows that. ,Genuinely kys
>>543103478Uh huh. Care to post it, lying faggot?
>>543105121>Everyone on the betting odds in 2024 was pricing in a trump victory as early as September>by September the money was pointing towards trump winning>aggregate shows September was actually her high water mark >we even have article from late September talking about how she’s holding a lead in the betting odds Uh huh….
>>543097400that's not a poll retard
>>543105932You should read the thread further before replying, retard.
>>543106015>i conceded later but not directly cool
>>543106093>still hasn't read thread>just here to get a dopamine hit of low-information self-rightousness postingPathetic.
>>543106788oh no someone called you out for being retarded before i had a chance and you conceded by moving the goalpost on them you're still retarded
>>543096119he's just like his voters
>>543106869oh no someone called you out like other retards already did in this thread which led to their further humiliation when I pointed out this comes from a foreign gambling site acting as wish fulfillment from retards who only think about orange man bad and are willfully misled by the kikes ho run this site and know their bets will only fatten their pockets when their manifestation bets don't come to pass! Then again, you didn't read the thread where this argument already previously occurred. Kill yourself.
>>543107467whatever retard
>>543107575Lol you're a fucking low-info chump. Stop responding to posts on here until you read through the thread and realize too late you were proven wrong. And, of course, kill yourself immediately. Fucking stubborn coward.
>>543101591You have 2 options fighting Israeli wars and promote trannies globally or fight Israeli wars and not promote yrannies world wide... Democrats will never take a hard stance against those jews. Just utilize fake soft powers
>>543096119Watching Kansas flip blue along with Texas is going to be fking hilarious.
>>543103241Not sure maybe 49 r, 49 d, 2 i in senate if they count 50 r plus jd v as rep senate
