I'm an M&A analyst at a major bank here and everybody is running around like headless chickens. The entire quant sector has their panties in a bundle and I'm logging 16 hours workdays for the better part of a month now.in a nutshell:Goldman Sachs just admitted the long end of U.S. Treasury market is “totally bidless.” Translation: almost nobody wants the 10- to 30-year debt the U.S. is trying to sell. No buyers.While Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent tells Congress we’re in an “illiquid period,” doubles then triples long-bond buybacks, taps the General Treasury Account to fund it and openly says “I am the house.” Yields are surging anyway. The 10-year has pushed toward 5.3% and the 30-year is even higher, levels not seen in years while Japan, one of the biggest foreign holders, keeps selling Treasuries and bringing money home.Soon after, Scott Bessent intervened and effectively took over BoJ operations which Japanese policymakers heavily criticized. If the same ”bidless” condition hits the short-dated treasuries market, the entire U.S. debt market (and global) collapses. The U.S. debt crisis will turn into a global liquidity crisis. To add insult to injury there's oil shortages, fertilizer shortages, insurace premiums up to the gills and the US is preparing an invasion in southern Iran and the UK is now daring Russia to nuke them.This is it, the final fuck you from the boomers. The greediest fucking generation in history will just burn everything on their way out as they soil their adult diapers.> what doBeats the fuck out of me. I'm positioned on t-bills, bitcoin and gold. Whatever money I had on etfs I sold to buy a small ranch near a lake. If all goes to shit at least I can still raise chickend and plant some potatoes or whatever.
>>543656625I'm a psychic jellyfish. Get out of crypto, it's fucked.
>>543656731It's my only asymetrical play rn. Trump just said he that the best way to get rid of the 40T debt is inflation so no, crypto and gold are a must.
>>543656835Counterpoint: Trump is retarded
>>543656625>>what do>Beats the fuck out of me. I'm positioned on t-bills, bitcoin and gold. Swallow your pride and just fomo into USD in the short term. You know you should yet you dont. Why?
>>543656625>I'm logging 16 hours workdays for the better part of a month now.doing M&A?
>>543656873He is also a shabbos goy and boomer. He still has power though.>>543656908I already have a considerable amount of money on t bills but that's as far as I'll go. Once inflation goes bananas I'll dump it for crypto or gold.
>>543657121By trade I'm a lawyer with a masters in financial engineering. I'm basically trying to poke holes in all of our contracts to find loopholes, less financial modeling, more actual corporate law work. It's about as boring as you can imagine.
>>543656625I used to look at properties all around Brasil.. Mairipora was one area where I thought about finding some ranch kinda thing.. had also looked in the south around Florianopolis.. Campos do Jordao was a place I'd considered.. one obvious issue was always security.. especially if there is a real meltdown, I just didn't know where the best place to be could be.. especially as a gringo..
>>543656625>Goldman Sachs just admitted the long end of U.S. Treasury market is “totally bidless.” Translation: almost nobody wants the 10- to 30-year debt the U.S. is trying to sell. No buyers.While Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent tells Congress we’re in an “illiquid period,” doubles then triples long-bond buybacks, taps the General Treasury Account to fund it and openly says “I am the house.” Yields are surging anyway. The 10-year has pushed toward 5.3% and the 30-year is even higher, levels not seen in years while Japan, one of the biggest foreign holders, keeps selling Treasuries and bringing money home.>Soon after, Scott Bessent intervened and effectively took over BoJ operations which Japanese policymakers heavily criticized. If the same ”bidless” condition hits the short-dated treasuries market, the entire U.S. debt market (and global) collapses. The U.S. debt crisis will turn into a global liquidity crisis. To add insult to injury there's oil shortages, fertilizer shortages, insurace premiums up to the gills and the US is preparing an invasion in southern Iran and the UK is now daring Russia to nuke them.you force me to Grok this:The scary claim says: if the short-term IOUs also find no buyers, the whole system breaks. That part is true as a hypothetical. Short-term Treasuries are the cash and collateral of the dollar world. If weekly auctions suddenly had no takers, money-market funds, bank funding, and foreign reserves would all seize up at once. That would be a global cash crisis, not just a bond slump.It is not what is happening, and it is not the likely next step. When people get nervous about long bonds, they usually move into short-term Treasuries, not out of them. The government can keep paying a higher rate and rolling short-term debt for a long time. The expensive problem is the long end: interest costs rise, and Washington is papering over it by borrowing shorter. That is a slow squeeze, not a sudden collapse.
>>543657272>By trade I'm a lawyer with a masters in financial engineering. I'm basically trying to poke holes in all of our contracts to find loopholes, less financial modeling, more actual corporate law work. It's about as boring as you can imagine.wow, sounds like lots of opportunity for insider trading thoughand not as boring as coding embedded temperature controllers for wafer fabs ahaha
>almost nobody wants the 10- to 30-year debt the U.S. is trying to sell.I rly do not understand these kikenomics.Like, why would anyone purchase someone's debt.To me that's like deliberately wanting to catch STDs.
>>543657324Mountains of Santa Catarina. Plenty of water and everybody is armed and the fact that I'm close to Paraguay means I can get all the guns I want.>>543657411Ceteris paribus Grok is right the problem is that he failed to factor in the oil crisis, food crisis, migration crisis and war that looks like it's going to hit us all at once. I wouldn't be surprised if Trump uses this as a pretext for matial law.
>>543656625we're going molecular.
>>543657168Despite the bullshit coming out of Trump's mouth, hes going to let rates pump which will drive stagflation to the point of flirting with deflation. Hes rich and will realize he doesnt give a single shit about propping up anyone else to insist on money printing. Plus Obama enabled money printing so hes inclined to ultimately want to do the opposite. Watch. The second the dems gain a super majority in both houses he will flip towards crashing the economy with no survivors and denying markets more free monies out of spite.
As a former “M&A analyst” (and associate) myself, I can clarify for the other anons that literally none of what OP is talking about has anything to do with M&A at all. OP may as well have said he works in the IT department.
>>543657272Then you should know that they will just double the account to 2t and make all other sellers irrelevant. The bottom is essentially in. Buy and hold long term debt at 5-8% and retire happy because your stock portfolio is toast.
>>543657501> insider tradingI wish. Compliance would tear me a new asshole that's only for the turbo jews at the top I'm just a 32 year old mid level goy.>>543657544Picture this: you're hanging out with Bill Gates’ kids, and they left their wallets at home. They hit you up for cash to fund a legendary night out. You know they're massive spenders and talentless on their own, but since they're Bill Gates' kids, you're guaranteed to get paid back with interest. The golden rule of the debt market comes down to a simple sweet spot: balancing how much they can comfortably service while they borrow. The riskier the borrower and the higher the chance they might run out of cash, the shorter your leash (loan duration) and the higher your interest rate demand—and vice versa.
>>543657606if everything freezes up the fucken banking mafia arseholes will get govts to declare a fucken energy lockdown crisis like covid and all the central banks do QE brrr brrr
>>543657803if it tells you it merges and acquires it increases the likelyhood you partcipate ittalsonobody gives a fuck about buying the bonds until the 30yr hits 6% because at that point holders get paid in lawful money
>>543657606Cool.. I looked around the interior of Santa Catarina a bit.. there are some really cheep and beautiful properties in there.. places with streems and ponds and sometimes waterfalls.. the only place that I had actually visited out there was Florianopolis.. had looked at a duplex out on Pria de Armacao that you could only reach by footpath.. magical place, but you never know who will try to set you up for a robbery down there
>>543657803I only gave context of my work at the bank. Why in the absolute fuck would I claim that macroeconomics analysis is the same as M&A? I even said here >>543657272 what I'm actually doing rn
This image remains relevant.
>>543658114
>>543658026Yeah, Florianopolis is very nice but too urban for my taste. If the Balkan conflict taught me anything is that in times of actual turmoil urban regions are toxic. It's way easier to grey man in the middle of bumfuck nowhere. Rn I'm using GPT to plan my solar panels and setting up starlink to put the cameras up. I've never done any electrical work in my life but with AI and youtube anything is possible.
>>543658114Funny thing is that he is balls deep into t bills and has been selling tech since 2019.
>>543658320What good are 2019-2024 T bills if their value has been going down because of rising yields?
>>543656625just the usual things that happen when an empire is collapsing, better start learning chinese
>>543658274Avoid AI, if you can afford check /g/ for self hosting and use chink AI. They all phone home and will call the police on you.4plebs.org has self improvement generals and the like, you should find real anons at /diy/ and /adv/, read /x/ if you're still caught up in a physical-only model of this crisis.
>>543656625>This is it, the final fuck you from the boomers. The greediest fucking generation in history will just burn everything on their way out as they soil their adult diapers.Remember: Its not their fault.They were raised by Jewish media and academia, instructed in Jewish propaganda, and basically kept completely in the dark for almost all of their lives.They are absolutely awful people, but you would be too if you were one of them.Theyre the single most semitically mindfucked population - sans Christcucks - in human history.
>>543658274The interesting thing about Brasil is that it's already in a state of semi collapse if you consider things like movimento de pessoas sem terra or huge favelas run directly and openly by narcos.. sometimes I think that a place like Sao Paulo city will just double or triple down on condo security and military presence in street in case of a major meltdown.. a penthouse in cidade jardim might still be the safest possible place (not that I can currently afford something like that myself).. maybe even just a house not far from a metro with bars on windows will be fine
>>543658397Guaranteed return on princial and liquidity but that's about it.>>543658519Based. I'm already dabbling with Qwen in LM Studio
>>543656625You guys should go home. It's the weekend. We're all going to die and you can't take it with you huenigger.
>>543658880We are past the point of no return if youa ask me. Mossad was caught arming narco guerrilas, there are already points where the state can't go in and criminal aready charge for electricity, phone, internet.. these are the seed for warlord balkanization. Unless we get a leader who is willing to break heads and do a cleanup Brazil will balkanize in 20 years tops.
>doesn't mention jews anywhereyou're a jew aren't you
>>543659174Jesus Christ is my lord and savior.
>>543657411wouldn't even short term debt become problematic as us debt rolls over and gets refinanced at higher rates
>>543658928But you get fucked by inflation and a broad market index did a 2x in 2019-2026 period?
>>543659069When I used to live down there I used to tell people that Brasil should probably be broken up into different countries.. makes zero sense that Sao Paulo has to send so much money up north just so some macumbas ass motherfuckers can steal most of it.. this was during the time that Dilma was being impeached and just before rise of Bolsonaro.. here in former Yugo the main thing that fuelled the war was Serbian Cetnik greater Serbia ideology.. will the people running Brasilia have the same kind obsession with destoying all opposition? I guess that Supreme Court and its behavior shows that there is the possibility of it
>>543659306Indeed. That's why most of my money went into my small ranch. There's no easy way out of this anon.
>>543657544because you get 5% more for free, albeit in the futureSure there are 10% ROI ventures like the stock market, but those can only take so much capitalyou can't invest 100B in the stock marketBonds have a much higher limit on how much you can invest in themNote that it is the purpose of the market to find someone to do this crazy stuffThe US gov will propose higher and higher interest rates until someone in the world accepts. People use mathematical models to gain confidence bonds of a certain interest rate are worth it
>>543656625Hope you guys have enough silver.
>muh debt crisisWar is the health of the state. Bring it on, bitch!
>>543659544When is silver going back up?
>>543659463We've had our share of separatists movements all have been squashed by the army but the entire country is in shambles. The constitution forbids any separatism but the constitution has been torn to pieces already by the STF. Our election is this Sunday if Lula wins again I'll sell everything and leave Brazil. My parents are getting old, it will be impossible for them to live as elderly people in a collapsing country. Ig push comes to shove I try to work in an oil field in the Dakotas or Siberia. I'm not afraid of hard work I just want some peace and quiet to raise my kids and take care of my mom and dad.
>>543659596When China starts buying again for EVs and solar panels. Silver like copper is first and foremost an industrial metal.
>>543659709~5% growthNot stellar, but it will have to do. https://www.cruxinvestor.com/posts/chinas-5-2-industrial-growth-raises-pressure-on-limited-silver-supply
>>543656625Somebody lifted the skirt, and found-out it was a Tranny?Now, nobody wants them?
>>543659886Your macroeconomic scenario is starting to look like ours. You will soon find out that just beating inflation is hard af. I'm trying to look into non speculative assets like REITs and companies related to power distribution, sewage and things of that nature. These are boring companies that aren't going anywhere. But that's still an idea haven't looked into this or anything as I have zero free time these days.
>>543659665USA is still kinda awesome in that there are some places that rural land is cheep and neighbours are not all crackheads and do have guns and will look out for each other.. often times, the challenge is just figuring out some way to make money out in middle of nowhere.. my plan is to get into some handmade ceramics for some side cash while I work to build some tech oriented business
>>543659665Also, I feel like probably not a good idea to trust Russians in any way whatsoever .. very easy to end up dead in a ditch somewhere with those people
>>543657411You lost, tranny
>>543660290I'm half Russian
>>543656625>Brazilian financial advice
>>543659069>Mossad was caught arming narco guerrilaslolwut?
>>543656625I've heard city of London is selling their bonds, flooding the market. All this to hurt Trump because he's taking Iran away from their control.
>>543656625>While Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent tells Congress we’re in an “illiquid period,”yes. He's pretending the only reason people are selling bonds is because they need the USD. (That isn't true though)>I'm positioned on t-bills, bitcoin and goldDump the bills, get more gold. And maybe some silver.
>>543660111I am not an expert by any means, but I always try to think of the end of Rome, and how civilizations ebb and flow, to see the basics. Land, water, metals. Power, irrigation, clothing, shelter. Yes, boring, But never going away. Once identified, then my next step is to see how I should park my ass there and let it grow. Silver did pay off for me - I started stacking about 10 years ago, then sold it off when I got unemployed. 100% ROI. And yes, I know, I sold it at the lowest point ever, but it was necessary.
>>543656625O Quantinho FavelitoStick to giving advice about bananas and mangoes
>>543662366sorry man.. russian federation is a wild monstrosity frankenstein state.. mongols made them insane.. the whole thing exists to swallow up endless territory so that a handful of muscovites can get rich and everyone else can drink vodka and be poor and jump into the meat grinder.. you may be allowed to join churkas in terrorizing ethnic russians or you may be allowed to join meat grinder but that's about all the future that you can expect out there.. probably better off in a favela somewhere
>>543662493There is a favela in Rio called complex of Israel where the narcos there use stars of david and are zionists and a few Israeli agents were caught selling them rifles and grenades manufactured in Israel.>>543662468If it's not a jew telling you what to do you find it strange? I have an old baseball cap here if I cut it and make a tiny jew hat will it make you more comfortable?>>543662593Bills are for liquidity I have like 20k tops.
>>543663046You have more niggers, huezil is not your homeland of india that is 100% favela occupying the whole territory.If you don't know the stats, stfu kike-jeet foreskinlet faggot.
>>543663049Have you even been to Russia? This isn't 1993 anymore anon sheesh.>>543662791Indeed. Infrastructure is always the best play if you're looking for stability and good returns at least it's how I was taught. Brazil is a shithole everything here is very unstable so most of us who manage to get a few pennies invest in those sectors and so far it has been working. No matter how bad the economic situatio is people still need power, water and food, the so called items with inelastic demand.
>>543656625>Translation: almost nobody wants the 10- to 30-year debt the U.S. is trying to sellTranslation extended: Nobody wants it because they arent sure America wont default within 10 years. Next they wont want the 5 year debt for the very same reason.
>>543663046Only if you give me advice about fried chicken and watermelon LaQuandrell.
>>543663387The funny thing is that America will default! It's mathematically impossible for them not to. What remains to be seen is how they will default either nullify their debt in a power move or inflate their currency like we did.
>>543658880The correct thing to do is find a way to get to Miami or Orlando. The best Iberian clay is SOFLA.
>>543656625It doesn't make any sense for a country to pretend to borrow the currency it issues and pay anyone interest for this fictional privilege.
>>543656835The best way to "get rid of it" (as if it is a problem in the first place) is to just get the growth rate above the interest rate.>but it's hard to get the growth upRight, but it's real easy to get the interest rate down because the Fed and Treasury are monopoly operations.Other strategies: stop running such a large trade deficit. When you run a current account deficit, the government has to be in deficit if the private sector is to be in surplus.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ql0OFY7W3Qs
>>543656625I don't think its fair to blame the boomers for this. Infinite debt and the inevitable implosion is a core design feature of the Jewish debt based system, it was always going to happen.
>>543656625>>543666140It is unfair to blame the boomers as anon said this is baked into every fiat cake.Further boomers didn’t grow up with internet in their pocket. The 3 tv channels and 1/2 dozen news papers all had all star panels that all circle jerked support to manufacture consensus.
