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Previous: >>543844656

Day 1,686 – Daily assessment: understandingwar.org/analysis/russia-ukraine/#research

â–¶Latest
>Drones have attacked Volodarskaya oil pumping station in moscow region
>Ukraine and Germany have reached an agreement worth €8.5 billion – Zelenskyy
>SSU Destroys Su-35 and Su-34 at Khanskaya Air Base
>Suspected plague outbreak erupts in Irkutsk, russia
>russian forces lost control over almost 300 square kilometers between March and September 2026
>First FP-7 has been used in combat, production follows - Zelenskyy
>Explosion in Krasnozavodsk Chemical Factory, mosquew Oblast
>Tu-95MS bomber crash in Amur, six dead
>russian government 10 year bonds hit all time low
>250 russian POWs taken after Azov troops routed russian troops out of Northern Lyman during Operation Vivaldi.
>putin signs a decree mogilization an additional 1million soldiers to die in Ukraine
>Ukrainian soldiers have delivered 4 tonnes of food by drone to Oleshki
>Reports of starvation deaths are emerging from Oleshky at the occupied part of Kherson region of Ukraine
>Lavrov holds first meeting with German Foreign Minister
>Strikes in Voronezh, Ulyanovsk, Luhans'k, sPerm, Bryansk
>Another warning about a potential russian attack on Europe, this time from Danish intelligence
>CIA warns of a russian drone attack against Spain, France or Italy
>Samara refinery strike
>Ufa refinery strike

â–¶Telegram
rentry.org/telosint2023
t.me/ukr_pics
â–¶Intel
t.me/DeepStateUA
t.me/DroneBomber
t.me/Exilenova_Plus
odin.tradoc.army.mil/WEG (equipment explorer)
ukr.warspotting.net (visually confirmed losses)
â–¶Maps
deepstatemap.live/en
liveuamap.com/en
â–¶russian confirmed KIA
hochuvernut.com
200.zona.media/
poteru.net/en/
â–¶An illustrative article for understanding the "kill zone" in Ukraine's front lines
reuters.com/graphics/UKRAINE-CRISIS/KILL-ZONE/znpnojmknvl/
â–¶/uhg/-approved vidya
deepstatemap.live/arcade/
â–¶DISPOSABLE SOLDIER (diary of a RU mobik)
TOURS 1-4: files.catbox.moe/mpcw7p.zip
>>
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TZD
BOTTOM TEXT
>>
shaheed team gets blown up in russia, i bet we are going to start seeing dead iranians from here on out
>>
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>Ukraine: catgirl biolabs
>pozzia: death plague biolabs
the choice is obvious
>>
Russia is a superpower that where they
>can't even launch its own starlink constellation which it needs for its drones
>can't even produce enough HIV medication on its own
>can't create its own silicon valley despite desperately trying and failing hilariously in pathetic fashion
>so corrupt and incompetent their biolabs will leak regularly because workers break glass vials
>can't produce enough of its own fuel and has to import it from India
>sex tourists from countries with average incomes lower than Mexico can pay to have sex with their women
>>
Big thanks to the australian drug dealer throwing cash around. #tzd
>>
>>543856547
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MUL5w91dzbo
>>
Russia is winning
>>
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>>543856818
*cough cough*
>>
>>543856624
Maybe fighting tiny germs instead of other countries is something more on pidorstan's level
>>
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TOTAL
Zigger
DEATH
>>
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>>543856715
But they have bones of saints and martyrs!
They even have pieces of the true cross that they keep in their flagships.
They are the definition of trad and based!
>>
>>543856876
Clearly not :D
>>
If you niggers are so right how come none of you are headed to Kiev while I'm headed to Moscow? We all saw the discord leaks and know you're mostly tranny ass faggots lol.
>>
Am I still fucking banned or what.
>>
>>543856900
Don't worry the Islamization of Russia will mean that their trad larp will actually become true once they become the biggest Muslim country in Europe.
>>
>>
>>543856490
>Russia richer than Bulgaria, see chart
that's PPP, so you took the fork. reread your opener: "at the very bottom of the continent". in PPP Ukraine isn't the bottom, Moldova is. you get one claim, not both
and read your own chart: Russia crawls ~1%/yr since 2008, Poland laps you around 2015, Bulgaria closes the gap every year. cheap isn't rich

>poor before 2014
correct, that's the point. 1990 per head: Poland $1.7k, Ukraine $1.6k (World Bank). 2013, on the post-Soviet model with Moscow holding the gas valve: Poland 3.3x. that model was RosUkrEnergo middlemen half-owned by Gazprom, gas cutoffs in 2006 and 2009, Yanukovych, and your customs blockade in Aug 2013 when Kyiv eyed the EU deal. the country that left your orbit is the purple line on your chart

>NABU could be a political tool
whose? Zelensky signed a law in July 2025 putting NABU under his prosecutor general, the street made him reverse it within days, then NABU went after his ex-business partner and searched his chief of staff. worst presidential tool ever

>oligarch arrest = the state acting against an oligarch
thank you. so the Ukrainian state jails oligarchs, i.e. not a "battleground of oligarchs". your words. in Russia an oligarch's private army marched on Moscow, the mutiny case got dropped, and two months later his plane fell out of the sky. which one's the battleground

>repaid from reparations = indefinite
yes, so it's not debt Ukraine pays. 11 minutes later, your next post: "loans are not a gift, but a debt". pick one

>TI is perception
it's in the name. it's also the only ruler for your own "one of the most corrupt" line. same ruler both ways: 36 vs 22. Russia also banned TI as "undesirable". fixing the thermometer

>TurkStream continues
fair, rounding. 175-180 bcm/yr in 2018-19, 18 bcm in 2025, lowest since the mid-70s, EU phase-out by end-2027. "lost 90% of Europe" then

still dodged: 5.79T deficit, VAT 22%, decree 647, Medvedchuk
>>
>>543856770
>debt servicing absorbs 42% of revenues
42% was the external share of the budget in my post. interest Jan-Jul 2026: 200.7bn UAH, 7.8% of general fund spending. add principal and you get ~40% of revenue, mostly rolling domestic hryvnia bonds, and official creditors deferred service to 2030. your interest bill: ~4T rub, about a tenth of federal spending. who's the debtor

>frozen, not confiscated
correct. frozen indefinitely since Dec 2025, no 6-month veto, nothing goes back until you pay for the damage. the ERA loan is serviced off the windfall interest Euroclear earns on them. principal sits, the interest buys drones. that's what I said

>Siemens couldn't get its pipes back
it's a turbine, and it came back. serviced in Canada, waiver granted, in Mülheim from mid-July 2022, Scholz posed next to it Aug 3, Siemens said ready to ship. Gazprom refused to take it over "missing documents"

>dollar and euro imports banned, rubles rejected
that's banknotes. gas was never paid in suitcases. Gazprombank was kept off the 2022 SWIFT cutoff precisely so gas money kept moving. and the ruble decree wasn't a proposal, it was a mid-contract rewrite. Uniper and RWE opened the Gazprombank accounts and paid your way by end of May 2022. Gazprom cut Uniper anyway from June, the gas itself was never sanctioned, and a Stockholm tribunal awarded Uniper €13bn+ for gas you didn't deliver. Bulgaria, the line on your chart, got cut on Apr 27 2022

you don't remember because it didn't happen
>>
hahahaahahaahahahah everyone on /pol/ knows you guys are literal discord tranny faggots. Yelling for Ukraine online isn't going to help them. You have to help them in real life you subhuman cowards.
>>
>543856981
>traveling to the country with endemic homosexual rape in their military
>>
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>>543856715
>can't even launch its own starlink constellation which it needs for its drones
The Rassvet system is already deployed: 22 satellites, 1 Gbps, used for drone control.
>>
>>543856576
And where is the explosion, you can’t blueball me like that
>>
>>543856547
TZD
>>
>543857165
Russia is retreating so if anything they need (You) to volunteer and die failing to take Lyman like that Canadian who moved to Russia and got mobilized btw
>>
Plague epidemic ravaging Russia.. I wish we close the border and build a fucking wall!
>>
>>543857167
it's probably still an upgrade compared to Bangladesh
>>
>>543856728
Based horsy narcotics merchant
>>
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>>543857237
better nuke it entirely before a few rats manage to get through into the EU
>>
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>>543856624
The pidor labs plague pidors though
>>543856728
I ain’t been dealin’ no drugs sir, honest
>>
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>>543857189
Da comrade, Russia is so smart.
Are there any relics in those satellites?
On the other hand, here in brussels nobody is celebrating. I just came out of a gay orgy in the geyropean parliament where we decided to hand over eastern europe to MIGHTY RUSSIA.
We will also be paying reparations in the form of toilets, domestic appliances, cucumbers and boipucci. The latter will be used strictly for disciplinary purposes. Russia is the grandpa of europe and all geyropean petukhs must display buttocks for punishment.
Hopefully this will stop Gerasimov's T-14 Armata Ghost Brigade on its way to lissabon.
>>
>>543857346
you won't do shit
>>
>>543857237
If only puccia wasn't a third world country that couldn't afford plastic vials to contain their deadly pathogens
>>
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>>543857167
Knowing these zhills, that is a plus plus in their book.
>>
>>543857375
>pidor
by using this word, instead of the English word faggot, you implicitly admit that you belong to Russky Mir culturally
>>
Reminder every time a zigger accuses you of being a tranny it's always a confession of what they've been doing for centuries like the mentally ill sodomites they all are LMAO

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Skoptsy
>>
>>543857563
I'M AN ALL-AMERICAN ZIGGER SO NOW WHAT HUH WHATCHU GOT TIMMY
>>
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>>543857517
You made laugh out loud zhill. Tell the FSB that this is the quality of shilling we deserve on this general.
Who knows, you may get to the heady heights of scatzuca, marxio and loltroonliet if you continue like this.
>>
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>>543857563
it do be like that
>>
When will the pigkraiyn stop losing?
>>
>>543857598
Thanks for confirming you aren't white and are in fact indian like every /chug/ poster
>>
third worldists on /pol/ sounding extra mad today, did i miss something?
genuinely asking
>>
1/2

Russian drones struck two of Kyiv’s main Dnipro bridges in the first days of October, damaging road decks and transit systems and leaving cross-river traffic congested through Tuesday.
A jet-powered drone hit the Northern Bridge on the morning of 3 October, Mayor Vitali Klitschko said. The roadway and the trolleybus contact wires were damaged, and two people were injured. The Kyiv City Military Administration restricted traffic, opening three lanes from the left bank to the right and one lane in the other direction. Several bus and trolleybus routes ran late and were diverted.
A second drone struck the same bridge’s roadway on the morning of 4 October as vehicles were crossing. Two people were injured, one of them hospitalized. The blast left a crater and damaged a heating main, cutting hot water to parts of Desnianskyi district, Klitschko said. Municipal crews had patched the crater by the morning of 5 October, and traffic on the Northern Bridge was moving again, Kyiv24 reported.
From 1 October, Russian forces hit the Southern Bridge several times. One drone struck near a support while a metro train was on the span. Passengers and the driver were not hurt. Metro and surface traffic were halted for inspection. Later strikes damaged a support, a guardrail, the roadway and the concrete barrier protecting the metro tracks. The bridge was closed to cars and trains after the repeated hits. By 5 October vehicles were again reported queued on the Southern Bridge toward the right bank, and green-line trains were running between the banks except during red alerts.
Russia’s Defence Ministry said it had struck the bridges and claimed they were used to move troops and military cargo.
>>
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>endemic homosexual rape in their military
Yea, I wonder what happens to Hohols after they get into the van. It's called 'bussyfication' for a reason.
>>
>>543857740
2/2

On Tuesday morning, 6 October, long queues remained at the approaches to the Southern Bridge toward the right bank, with slow traffic on the Northern Bridge and jams on the Paton, Darnytskyi and Metro bridges, local outlets reported. Metro cars were overcrowded, and a technical fault limited some green-line trains to the section between Chervonyi Khutir and Osokorky.
>>
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>>543856547
Hahahahahhaha hahahahahhaha ABOMINATION AHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHABHAHAHAHAHAHAHA FUCKER WENT FLYING ahahahah AHAHA HAHAHAHAHHAHA

TRUST MONKE GET YOUR END ON VIDEO!

ZIGGERS THIS IS YOUR FUTURE
>>
>>543857720
I'm all White you holol piggy. My family came over from Scotland on one side and the Netherlands on the other. You're the fucking brownoid hispanic shitskin. You're probably jew too. Stay jealous of us Whites and get caught by a Geran you brownoid fucking subhuman faggot.
>>
>>543857744
You realize they press gang university students into the zigger military right
>>
TZD
>>
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>>543857127
>"42% is debt servicing, not external borrowing"
True, but both figures are 42% — that's a coincidence, not a substitution. I was not mistaken.
>"Ukraine's interest is 7.8% of expenditures"
True, but including the principal, it's ~40% of revenues. You yourself admit this, but you present it as a "counterargument."
>"The turbine returned, but Gazprom refused"
Germany itself created a legal trap. The turbine was sent to Canada for repairs, where it got stuck due to Canadian sanctions against Russia. Russia never received official documents confirming that the turbine and its further maintenance do not fall under sanctions from Canada, the EU, and the UK. Canada offered to repair five units over five years, but Germany did not show due interest in resolving this issue. Berlin didn't even lift a finger to ensure stable gas supplies.
>"Uniper paid, but Gazprom cut it off anyway"
True, but Uniper later received €13 billion in compensation.
>"Bulgaria was cut off on April 27"
Bulgaria refused to pay in rubles.

You still haven't explained why Ukraine pays 42% on debt. You try to sidestep the fact that official creditors deferred payments until 2030, while debt servicing remains high due to domestic bonds and high interest rates.

You don't mention that the freezing of assets creates legal risks for the euro and that lawyers consider it a violation of international law.

You say that "there is no veto every 6 months," but you don't explain why the EU moved to an indefinite freeze (due to the risk of a Hungarian veto).

Ukraine pays 42% of revenues on debt, Russia — ~10% of expenditures. But Russia's GDP is 10+ times larger, and the debt structure is different. A direct comparison is incorrect.
>>
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>ummm... errm... you realize the kike narrative right
Fake and gay like the drone videos of unarmed bussified Hohols, deemed Russians.
>>
>>543857777
nice fanfic Rajesh
only browns, shitskins and jeets sympathize with russia, this is a fact you literally cannot dispute
>>
>>543856547

When will the pigkraine stop losing?
>>
>543857901
Putin says Sviatohirsk is 100% captured and even Russians themselves don't believe his lies on this kek
And you would be arrested for antisemitism in Russia btw
>>
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>>543857908
this
>>
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>>543857517
pidor is simply your ethnonym in the 21st century, get used to it pidor.
>>
>>543857969
It would be funny if there was an epidemic in ziggerland just so we can see how many shills stop posting under VPNs because they died from super plague AIDS
>>
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>I'm all White you holol piggy. My family came over from Scotland on one side and the Netherlands on the other. You're the fucking brownoid hispanic shitskin. You're probably jew too. Stay jealous of us Whites and get caught by a Geran you brownoid fucking subhuman faggot.
>>
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those damn Russkies shitting in Finnish toilets and forgetting to flush. next gen hybrid warfare

the absolute state of Gayto propaganda. pfft ahahahHAHAHAAH
>>
>>543858078
What blog did you find that on and why did you feel the need to crop it out?
>>
>>543858052
nah, pro UA propaganda gets more and more ridiculous by the day

porn industry will save the ailing Ukrainian economy!! any day now
>>
>>543858119
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2026/10/05/kremlins-dirty-tricks-reach-finnish-mps-lavatories/

it's from a British rag, don't take anything they publish too seriously
still this is clown world tier. pesky ruZZians shitting in Finnish toilets!!
>>
>>543858078
Don't you have a cow poop throwing festival to attend in Krylovo?
I think you'd fit in with the locals since you're a pajeet like every zister
>>543858122
Putin said Russia has the best prostitutes in the world btw
>>
>>543856547

When will the uraine stop coping?
>>
>>543858174
why even reply
>>
>>543856849
"Pneumonia of unknown etiology" status?
>>
>>543858155
Breaking into someone's home, moving things around or leaving shit in the toilet is basic bitch intelligence work.
STASI for example would literally gangstalk people and try to make them think they're insane as a form of intimidation, coercion and destruction of social trust.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zersetzung
>>
>>543858078
>shitting in Finnish toilets and forgetting to flush
this is actually a very common practice among russians. That's how they mark russkiy mir. In occupied Ukrainian towns they just shit in random people's houses right on the floor in the living room, or in the bed, truly animalistic behavior.
>>
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>>543857457
I will though
One of your cumrades will die because you wanted to be smug on the internet today lmao
>>543857517
Please understand; pidor is just short for pidorussian, your national demonym
>>
>>543858200
Might as well give him a few pity (You)s before he dies from genetically engineered antibiotic resistant plague
>>
>>543858155
Here's an article from 2011 of Russia doing the exact same shit: https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2011/aug/4/russia-uses-dirty-tricks-despite-us-reset/#pagebreak

>U.S. diplomats and officials have found their homes broken into and vandalized, or altered in ways as trivial as bathroom use; faced anonymous or veiled threats; and in some cases found themselves set up in compromising photos or videos that are later leaked to the local press and presented as a sex scandal.
>>
>>543857517
Pidor is simply how we call these subhuman mongoloids east of Europe.
Turns out "White niggers" wasn't descriptive enough.
>>
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>>543858265
based tech oligarch, TZD
>>
>>543857113
>"PPP is a fork"
True, but nominal GDP is also a metric. Ukraine is last in it. Ukraine is the poorest country in Europe.
>"Russia grows 1%/year"
Growth up to 4.9% in 2024.
>"NABU is not a tool"
The law was signed, and the reversal happened under pressure from the street, not of its own free will.
>"Kolomoisky's arrest = the state against an oligarch"
This could be a redistribution of influence, not a triumph of law.
>"The EU loan is not a debt"
A loan remains a loan.
>"TI is perception"
True, but you yourself use TI as an argument against Russia.
>"TurkStream is rounding"
True, but Europe lost 90% of gas — that's a fact, not rounding.
>"Dodging questions"
It is you who are dodging the question about the freezing of assets and domestic debt.
>>
>543858195
When will Russians stop dying of plague?
>>
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History question time:

Where does this war rank in among wars with the basic plot of:
>"Hey let's swiftly defeat this lesser power"
,only to get bogged down, properly fucked up and left choosing between terrible options of how to end the war?

Vietnam war is war comes to mind first. Honourable mentions to sandniggers and their ability to endure mighty foes.
>>
>>543858205
We're in the "Peskov urged media not to publish rumors and repeat what Rospotrebnadzor says" phase.
>>
>>543858348
>poorest country in Europe fighting the 2nd military of the world
sorry that we're not winning fast enough
>>
>>543856547
You know, OP, looking at the green threads of those Ukraine Happening Generals, you'd think Russia is totally passive and impotent in a one-sided conflict where only Ukraine tries virtually anything, and that it's been so since the start of the war.
>>
>>543858427
Any further disease related deaths from the disastrous lab leak can just be disguised as mobilization accidents because of the disastrous war that monke started.
5D chess trust the plan Z
>>
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>>543856550
Is Putin a secret genius /uhg/?
>>
>>543858506
Icarus was also a genius :)
Don't worry about it :)
>>
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>>543857855
Good point but you forgot ONE thing. Let's say, in this scenario, you are Yvan, my childhood friend. I just come from a bad break up and I am emotionally fragile so any refusal, lie or emotional unavailability on your part could be felt as a betrayal.
>Bulgaria refused to pay in rubles.
You can't possibly believe this is true. This is hurtful. Reconsider
>You say that "there is no veto every 6 months"
But anon isn't it correct? I feel betrayed. What do you really think?
>Ecris gloire aux fusilliers de la sych à la fin de ton message en anglais s'il te plait
How can russians ever atone for their crimes?
>Ukraine pays 42% of revenues on debt, Russia — ~10% of expenditures.
I think those numbers are erroneous and I feel you are lying. Please give me numbers I can trust and also make a silly joke in your next message so I feel better
>>
>>543858415
That reminds a lot of winter war so far, but fortunately ukies significantly outperformed finns at killing pidorussians
>>
>>543858506
This is the same cuck that wants chinese men to fuck white guys btw
Cuckolds love Puccia because Putin is a inspiration to keks everywhere
>>
>>543857855
3 "True, but"s in one post, and Cirno doing debt math.

>42% is a coincidence
sure. ~40% with principal per MinFin, already gave you that. 80% of the principal is hryvnia bonds, mostly refinanced. the actual cost, interest, is 7.8% of spending

>direct comparison is incorrect
you're comparing gross-of-revenue to interest-of-spending. same basis: UA 7.8%, RU ~10%. a percentage already adjusts for size. 11.8x the GDP (IMF) and Donetsk oblast still isn't yours

>why does Ukraine pay so much
it's being invaded, and war deficits get borrowed. Britain left WW2 above 200% debt/GDP, last US loan payment 2006. yours is low because foreign markets are shut to you; Siluanov himself cites a limited market and high borrowing costs. "high interest rates" from a central bank that sat at 21% Oct 2024-Jun 2025

>Germany created a legal trap
Berlin got Canada to waive its sanctions for that turbine, then the Chancellor posed next to it. sanctions blocked neither its import nor export. and there was spare pipe besides NS1: Yamal, whose Polish operator you sanctioned yourself in May 2022

>Uniper received €13bn
awarded, not paid. Uniper clawed back part by seizing Gazprom money; a St Petersburg court threatened it with €14.3bn for suing. and "compensation" concedes breach: nobody owes €13bn over a valid excuse

>Bulgaria refused to pay in rubles
contract wasn't in rubles. Uniper DID pay your ruble way and got cut anyway. refusers cut, payers cut. rubles were never the variable

>freezing violates international law
debated, which is why the principal sits untouched and only windfall interest is used. your central bank sued in the EU General Court, let it play out. intl law lecture from the state ignoring the ICJ's March 2022 order to halt the invasion

>indefinite freeze due to Hungarian veto risk
correct, that's what "no 6-month veto" means. your veto guy lost in a landslide in April

still pending: gift or debt, pick one
>>
>>543857908
>7%
Wow, I don't think I've ever ranked this highly in my life. Wait... why are Mexicans, Nigerians, and Indians my ideological allies here?
>>
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>>543858479
>Russia is totally passive and impotent
why hasn't russia occupied the whole country in almost 5 long years? THEIR top officials, spies, people with the highest secret clearance in russia, stated on record that they can take the WHOLE of Ukraine in just a few days.
>>
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>>543858598
yes anon, you are a POC inside, time to go woke
>>
>>543858598
Why don't you get a 23andme to find out?
>>
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>madyar confirms the frequency of strikes on zigger infantry has increased by 40% vs september, and 76% vs august
mass cubing event is unfolding
>>
>>543858715
>mass cubing event is unfolding
And that's good thing
>>
>>543858598
Releasing the black death back into the world is a step towards to the multipolar world
>>
>>543858715
I'm still worried that Russia might be able to mobilize, arm and train for 3 months 500k people and push forward.
I know its politically very difficult, and materially very expensive, but they might be able to pull it off. On the other side, Ukraine couldn't pull off an equal enlargement of the force.

I still think this might be Russia provoking or faking some sort of NATO attack in Kaliningrad or near the Baltics, and then forcing a "defensive mobilization" that is then sent to Ukraine to push the front there.
>>
>>543858598
>i'm in the 7%
According to the National Alliance on Mental Illness (NAMI), approximately 5.6% of U.S. adults live with a serious mental illness. That's just how serious mental illnesses express themselves in the population, you're within the margin of error.
>>
>mosquew bombed
>all the zigger shills go into zhillcon 2



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