>>543918984
They think it's funny to owe trillions.

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>>543918984

>>543918984
They want a silver bullet to defeat the inflation demon, they will gladly cut everything except the holy healthcare industrial complex, that or find a few more wars to distract everyone to keep the profits pleased

>>543918984
because the US won the war tranny

>>543918984
No, it is because the entirety of jewsa is gay homosexual

>>543918984
USA has too much debt and unlike Japan they are the system, japan managed to reach even higher levels of debt to gdp ratio by attaching to the globalist system, but the usa can't do it because it is the globalist system.

Also the geopolitical / economic strategy of the usa is a disaster, it's a miracle that their energy policy was saved by shale oil.

>>543919598
This is one of the biggest causes too late stage boomerism is a curse because only generation with money does not spent, demographic collapses, the economy slows down and depends more of gov spending but gov spending can't finance itself anymore with debt, this is why trump wants to accelerate AI it's the only thing generating geniune gdp growth without gov intervention.

Of course ai is deflationary in jobs so less jobs = less spending = less taxes = higher bond yields.

The retarded shit is that roosveltianism and peronism solved this shit, when you have >120% debt to gdp ratios if you have food and energy independence you can increase wages while supressing bond yields which makes the economy unit account to increase and debt to gdp ratio to decrease.

But GOP are such boomers that they want people to work with 1990 minimum wage in 2026 and that firm handshake will solve everything.
Stupid imbeciles want to inflate the debt while supressing wages, that is stagflationary and causes the current stupid shit going on in bonds in burgerland and japan.

The worse thing is that democrats are probably like the french left they will cut everything minus boomer gibs and healthcare also causing more job deflation and this.

The solution is so fucking easy usa did it 1940-1955 and look at debt gdp ratio, argentina did it 2001-2011 and look debt to gdp ratio.

Instead they are delaying and delaying and delaying for what?Russia is entrenched in ukraine, iran on the defensive, and china does not give a shit and they also have latam and shale gave them energy independence and have food independence.

>>543918984
The US is cooked. The leader bankrupted a casino. MAGA is suffering and will suffer more. You won!

>>543918984
It's because the government is very valuable so number go up.

>>543918984
Time for a non retarded answer: AI companies

So the US government issues bonds where you pay them money now and they agree you pay you back that money with interest later, right? But unlike a bank loan where the bank sets the interest rate and you can take it or fuck off, government debt is a competitive market. The deal has to be sweet enough that a potential investor out there wants to pay into it for the prospective pay out later, which means that Bonds are in competition with other sources of investment.

Now, typically the logic is that stocks have potentially higher returns but more risk (a company could go bankrupt and you lose your money) while treasury bonds have lower interest but are extremely safe and stable (the US government isn't going anywhere, so you'll get your money back for sure).

But whats happened recently is that AI companies are taking on SO much debt and calling for investors to bail them out of it, that they are promising the moon in terms of returns. "Sure, we're not making a profit NOW, but we're going to make infinite wealth LATER and if you have a slice of the pie when that happens you'll be one of the richest people on the planet! Trust us!" Its not just the high advertised rate of return, which may or may not even be real, its the scale of it. Trillions of dollars are disappearing into the AI tech boom hole, and the fact that the government keeps subsidizing them makes them look like a safer bet than they actually are. The AI tech boom has, essentially, co-opted the sense of legitimacy that the bonds usually have, while promising a greater payout down the road. So investors are seeing the AI investment as the sweeter deal, and taking that instead of buying bonds.

If the government doesn't sell enough bonds, we start running into serious money problems. So they have to raise the interest rate to make bonds a more attractive buy, which has all kinds of other knockon effects on the economy.

>>543920178
>Instead they are delaying and delaying and delaying for what?

Kicking the can down the road so that someone else has to deal with the consequences. As far as the boomers are concerned, the only problem with whats happening now is that half of them thought it would take another 10 years to hit this point and that they would be dead by then, and the other half genuinely thought that the rapture would have happened by now and that the bill would never be paid because the end credits rolled on the universe before it could come up.

>>543918984
>treasury secretary is a gay homosexual
Dangerously close

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USofA soon be Western Sky's best customers.

>>543920503
Government is not really subsidizing ai, ai is extremly profitable when you remove the buildout going on.

The reason the interest on bonds is going up is because debt to gdp ratio is very big in burgerland, ai is deflationary on job creation, boomers own all assets so non boomer products have lower demand than ever, and boomers take more from the system than they give despite owning most assets.

This means the economies are slowing down worldwide which does not make bonds "safe".

If anything tough AI is bullish for the usa because if they actually abandon boomerism and start rising wages along with some type of yield curve control they will benefit a lot while having less inflationary pressures as lot of jobs will be automated but economy would be strong due to higher wages.

But boomerism is a mental disease.

>>543920663
I do not think tough, boomer trump and bessent been preparing the field for some type of yield curve control, like the tarrif shit, legitimizing stablecoins with us treasuries as collateral etc.

If anything these stupid fucks prepared the entire field to do that plan and failed because they refused to let wages go up out of pure boomerism.

Like for fucks sake even after the gold standard fell in burgerland in 1971 minimum wages duplicated every decade, yet after 2008 boomers went full psychopathic on their children, inflating the currency away and more than increasing monetary base by 5 times yet not allowing wages to go up.

Of course the entire system is now blowing in the bond market, if the minute you stop spending you are in a recession because the youth is now poor as fuck, and boomers are becoming takers due to old age then who the fuck will keep the economy alive enough for banks to demand bonds as collateral.

If young people were getting rich their bank accounts would grow and banks would buy bonds as collateral for that wealth but the opposite is going on the young are decapitalizing .

They're inflating the debt away.

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>leave Iran to ME

>>543918984
thirdies putting all their money on a US collapse because bonds increased by 1%

shitskins are very delusional people

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>>543918984
>zoom out
Always goes up right before a recession (grey) picrel

>>543918984
How much interest would you want in return for lending money to household that's $100k in credit card debt and shows no signs of slowing down? In fact, they're at the lexus dealership looking for a new car right now.

>>543920882
That requires raising the minimum wage drastically and constantly for 15 years while supressing bond yields.

The fact that neither is happening tells it's the exact opposite, motherfucker clowns are letting bonds yields go sky high while the economy slows down causing a stagflationary collapse after doing a political build up for almost a decade since 2016 (excluding biden years), and they failed due to boomerism.

Whoever takes over will inflate the debt away and become a political power for a decade or more like roosvelt did and probably will be able to get a third term as will become able to reform the constitution unless the democrats put a w*man or a faggot which is likely tough.

>>543918984
Why are you a retarded faggot? Is it all the dark cock down your throat cutting off oxygen? The treasury has no influence on the bond prices. Congress spends the money. The fed prints it.

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>>543920854
>Government is not really subsidizing ai
>ai is extremly profitable
>lot of jobs will be automated

>>543920922
>thirdies putting all their money on a US collapse because bonds increased by 1%

Go check how much service on existing debt increases by 1% yearly interest on the budget rises like 400b usd and it also increases the cost to roll over old debt it's a systemic collapse when you have such high rates of debt to gdp.

>>543921166
If you remove AI spending to build datacenters from AI companies they are all making a ton of money and if there is something trump is right is that the nation that wins AI wins all.

Hardware will keep getting better, efficiency of models will grow, it's already profitable, 5 years ago it was a chatbot 2 years and half ago it learned to do images well 1 year ago to code well, now it's solving math problems that mathematicians failed for a century.

Having an universal AI model that can understand these things means you can translate human language to computer code which means universal robotics become a possible reality and believe me rus anon, it's coming sooner than you may think.

We are entering the era of de-growth.
There's 50 years of oil left, and they aren't letting useless eaters have any more of it.

>certainly don't buy stocks, goy!

>>543921380
>If you remove AI spending to build datacenters from AI companies they are all making a ton of money
This is the exact opposite of whats true, Anon.
All of the money thats actually been made by AI companies has been CAPEX, which is to say the building of the datacenters themselves. All of that GDP growth that AI represents is essentially just a real estate project with a bunch of smoke and mirrors on top.
Actually RUNNING the AI models is a profit loss, they lose money every single time someone uses their service because they have to offer token use at basically free to get people to use it. If they charged what it actually cost to run that compute, it would be so expensive that literally nobody would fucking do it. So the AI companies are eating losses every single second of the day, propped up by real estate expansions that bring in heavy investment dollars to keep themselves propped up, and using shell companies to hold their debt for them to make their balance sheets look more attractive to investors than the situation really is.

This is why AI companies are so frantic to build more data centers everywhere they can find a square patch of ground: whether or not those extra servers actually serve a purpose is *irrelevant*, the act of building the data centers is what makes them their money, so they have to keep building datacenters faster and faster to keep ahead of their massive debts.

>>543918984
He told the bond market to take him on and claimed he'd win because "he is the house now" and "has asymmetric information".

At the same time Trump repeatedly vows to borrow 1.2 trillion dollars to pay out in bribes, the diesel tax cut requiring an extra 10bn in borrowing and lots of other examples of his fiscal incontinence which are viewed as rubbing salt in the wounds.

The bond market prices in and holds vital its own ability to discipline the issuers of bonds.

Basically Bessent has spat in the face of a mafia loanshark and said he is going to pay. What do you think happens next.

>>543919504
Not our problem. Sounds like the governments problem. Ide like a line item accounting of where all that money went and wether I voted for it.

>>543922394
OpenAI had like 5b revenue last year and expects more than 70b this year.

Anthropic seems to have a deficit but the models are getting both efficient in hardware and software levels.

It's nothing but expected that both sides will have deflation models getting cheaper due to software (more efficient) and better hardware (way better results per kw spent), this is why the entire AI gamble is about and frankly having seen these models evolve i am on the AI companies side now i would not bet against them.

Once you account they will get probably a massive improvement from software and hardware the revenue to cost ratio becomes incredibly in favour of ai companies.

>>543921380
>If you remove AI spending to build datacenters from AI companies they are all making a ton of money
No, they are not lmao. This is exactly why people correctly identify it as a bubble. The "it's just muh growth capex" cope has already served as famous last words for thousands of companies and industries and is neither new nor clever.
>there is something trump is right is that the nation that wins AI wins all
That's not strategic business planning, but a handwavy religious belief.
>5 years ago it was a chatbot 2 years and half ago it learned to do images well 1 year ago to code well
"It" didn't "learn" anything. It was built to produce desired outputs by a myriad engineers. And no, "it" still can't code well. At best it can fill in some boilerplate or string together a bunch of heavily patterned bits with trivial glue code, leaving actual devs holding a bag of jeetcode hallucinations.
>now it's solving math problems that mathematicians failed for a century
No, it did not. In case of supposed Navier-Stokes solution, it bruteforced one specific niche case of a problem under specific boundary conditions after specifically being shown which (human-invented) method to apply ad nauseam (with 8+ figure total compute cost). Other cases of supposed "AI solving a super duper math problem" are very much like this. It is little more than a very powerful proof checker/permutation engine, at least for now.
>Having an universal AI model that can understand these things means you can translate human language to computer code which means universal robotics become a possible reality
It's funny that you keep ranting about "boomerism", and yet you yourself are a literal neoboomer whose entire worldview revolves around some imminent AI rapture.

>>543918984
Lines always go up.
Kys tranny.

>>543922705
>imminent AI rapture

*Singularity

>>543922705
>That's not strategic business planning, but a handwavy religious belief.

That is both a religious belief and planning, these models are learning about translating human language into computing code, the only way to do it is with the 2000s-2020s internet data after that data is purged due to being old and servers dying nobody else can do it it's now or ever hence why most big players are deep into it.

>"It" didn't "learn" anything. It was built to produce desired outputs by a myriad engineers
>In case of supposed Navier-Stokes solution, it bruteforced one specific niche case

You miss the point yet got it here, you mention brute force that is correct but it's a different type of brute force it's not an algorithm brute forcing a single thing it's a small model trying ideas that humans barely came with mixing them and brute forcing it in a smart way that is a massive change.

>It is little more than a very powerful proof checker/permutation engine, at least for now.

It's clear you never used the frontier models in paid versions.

>This is exactly why people correctly identify it as a bubble

Let's look at openAI financials that we know last year they made 13 billions and lost almost 21b that seems shady but lots of spending is building datacenter

add to the mix that models are getting more efficient (gpt 6.1 is already like 6x cheaper than other models) and now add to the mix that nvdia new Blackwell chips for AI are 50x more efficient per kw spent.

Do you really think these numbers look bad enough to make them unprofittable?It's the only thing boomer trump got right, the nation that wins AI wins everything.

This is why china is letting companies release open models so there is a market for cheap open models in the west so there is a market for gpus of high quality to then probably smuggle back and avoid any sanctions while they develop their own chip manufacturing capabilities.

>>543923020
>these models are learning about translating human language into computing code, the only way to do it is with the 2000s-2020s internet data after that data is purged due to being old and servers dying nobody else can do it it's now or ever
No offsense, but it is truly uncanny how much of a tech-illiterate boomer you are.
>but it's a different type of brute force it's not an algorithm brute forcing a single thing it's a small model trying ideas that humans barely came with mixing them and brute forcing it in a smart way
That's still an algorithm bruteforcing things, dumbo. Tuning, composing and permuting approaches on the fly isn't some novel feat of transformers or even neural networks at large. The change they brought is quantitative in nature, not qualitative, like you keep alluding with your magical thinking.
>It's clear you never used the frontier models in paid versions.
If only I had a penny for every time you beliebers repeated this exact same phrase like good little advertising bots.

>>543924462
Nigga if you really used these models i am shocked you really do not see how revolutionary this is, imagine a constellation like starlink with visual observation, you could put a model to scan an entire frontline like the one your country is at war and detect everything without human input.

All you would need is the visual satellites, a middleware software and explaining a model what to do.

That in itself is revolutionary because these models are evolving not only in knowledge but in the tools they have to the point they can read images now, listen to audio and other things that were not possible in the past.

The fact that neural chips are also getting smaller is impressive to the point you could probably have a model driving a plane way easier than an automatic self driving car.

All this changes are revolutionary the only constrain they had was the high cost per kw per prompt that is being absolutely destroyed by new chips.

>That's still an algorithm bruteforcing things,

How can you call it an algorithm? An algorithm produces a defined result.

These models literally built algorithms to brute force some that humans never considered like the jacobian conjecture discovery.

So they are not deterministic that you give A to receive B.

Their ability to create other algorithms is in itself something unique and revolutionary.

>>543920178
>accelerate AI it's the only thing generating geniune gdp growth without gov intervention.
Are you retarded?
>>543920854
>Government is not really subsidizing ai, ai is extremly profitable when you remove the buildout going on.
You actually might be the dumbest brown

>>543920932
Clearly it can also spike up without a recession following

>>543918984
You don't own bonds as part of your non-stock investment portfolio?

>>543918984
>Is it because the treasury secretary is a gay homosexual?
absolutely, yes
that is the only reason
no others

>>543918984
here’s your fiscal conservative government bro

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>>543918984
>Why do bond rates keep going up?
Because Trump is a lying retard. its that simple

>>543920178
Who do you think is financing the credit for the datacenters lol

>>543920503
Well put

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>>543927190
The world economy is due for a decline in 2027 picrel as the sun moves into its solar minimum phase.

>>543925808
>Nigga if you really used these models i am shocked you really do not see how revolutionary this is
I did my grad thesis on LSTMs over 20 years ago and while AI and neural networks haven't been central to my professional life since, I'm still slightly more in the know than your average normgroid and therefore see the current AI boom for what it is, ie a logical consequence of continuous hardware advancement and not some brand new software superpower that suddenly appeared out of nowhere.
>they can read images now, listen to audio and other things that were not possible in the past
Computer vision is a fifty year old domain. General analog signal processing is much older than that. The only difference is you had to be a skilled CS nerd to use their fruits 10+ years ago and nowadays every tard with internet connection can just 'import solution' in Python and "develop" an object detection program.
>All this changes are revolutionary
Most of these aren't even proper changes, let alone revolutionary ones. We simply have much cheaper compute power now that allows us to apply and scale long known methods that were too costly before. You sound like some teenager with baby duck syndrome who keeps calling his first shitbox car "revolutionary" because it's the first one you actually got to drive yourself.
>How can you call it an algorithm?
Because it is an algotithm.
>So they are not deterministic
Yes, a nondeterministic algorithm.
>Their ability to create other algorithms is in itself something unique and revolutionary.
No, it's just another tongue-in-cheek marketing sophistry, just like the aforementioned math problems.

It's because the Federal Reserve destroys the currency so quickly that all maturities should be at 15%+ to even out the inflation (the real one, not the fake reported one).

>>543918984
Yeah. He has AIDs so it raises rates. That's why African countries have financial issues.

>>543918984
Go look up gregory mannarino on youtube for an easy breakdown on the unholy trinity of modern fake and gay finance
10y yield
Crude oil
And DXY

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Is anyone watching that graph? It keeps popping up and down by quite big amounts.

>>543931086
bessent buying our own debt, most likely.

>>543918984
IT is because

USA TOTAL DEBT is:

116 000 000 000 000 $

Everyone understand that no one going pay that back!

That is why!

Any additional Questions?

>>543927190

the magnitude of the debt plus the velocity of this rate increase is an issue

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we're going to go bankrupt like france soon. the us is a bloated pork barrel and so are its citizens. we have hit peak hoeflation and are about to be put on a diet.

>>543920932
What was magnitude of global debt (not to mention U.S. national debt) in 1980?

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>>543931149
It looks like he's buying it over and over again, and the other side keeps buying it back or something.

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>>543931086
>OP memeflag 2 pbtid
The volatility and instability of the global bond market and UST 10-y over the past four years is greater than it has been in half a century.
Not good for a global system founded on and constructed entirely of and from debt

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>>543931829
That must be an artifact, huh? See how it gapped down, then up, then down again?