BIG: Kpler analyst Michelle Brohard suspects Gulf producers may be paying Iran unofficial tolls of 10-20% of cargo value for safe Hormuz passage, viewing US escorts as unsustainable and non-working at all, as Iranian missiles and drones inflict increasing damage/destruction to tankers trying to avoid the Iranian blockade.https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Kpler-Suspects-Gulf-Producers-Are-Paying-Iran-for-Safe-Passage.htmlIran has expanded attacks beyond Hormuz transit vessels to ships in the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman, including those supporting ship-to-ship transfers. Overall commercial traffic stays severely restricted at roughly 3-10 ships per day versus pre-crisis norms of 70-85. STS activity has been disrupted by strikes near transfer zones.War-risk premiums, quoted as a percentage of hull value, have surged from near 0.1-0.25% pre-war to peaks of 5-10%, costing millions per VLCC transit. Freight rates have hit extreme levels, with VLCCs sometimes exceeding hundreds of thousands of dollars per day amid shortages driven by the inefficient shuttle system. Overall maritime costs are many times higher than pre-war.The US facilitated large-scale STS operations using techniques long employed by Irans dark fleet, moving about 90 million barrels via at least 92 tankers off Fujairah and Sohar. The system helped sustain some flows but proved vessel-intensive, vulnerable to Iranian attacks on transfer areas, and insufficient to restore normal secure volumes.
The Boss man says everything is fine and theirs more oil than ever. If he says that I trust him, I dont care what the price at the pump is.
