Worst geography on the planet>Completely surrounded by 3 hostile superpowers(America, India, Russia) and a whole host of hostile regional powerhouses like Japan/SK/Taiwan/Vietnam>Worst demographics on earth>No natural resources>Extreme food and fuel insecurity, they will starve within days without food or oil imports>Worse corruption than the Russians, society is worse than India, government is extremely incompetent-one of the worse on the planet>Extremely low skilled population>Complete inability to innovate, 20-50 years behind America and Europe in technology and science, in fact that they're so bad in technology, that they're equal to India and Vietnam>A weaker army than Russia and a weaker navy than Japan/SK/UK>On the verge of a civil war>Complete reliance on global trade when their green water naval can't defend their coastal waters and when they're deindustrializating fast and global trade is breaking down>The worse debt crisis in the world, one of the highest unemployment rates in the world, on the verge of total economical meltdown>Losing their industry to India at an extremely rapid rateZeihans says it loud and clear, China will not exist in 5 years, they are clearly one of the most vulnerable and weakest countries in the world right now
>>544837653They will definitely still exist in 5 years, and have all the same problems, too.50 years, maybe we'll see something pretty different.
>>544837788China is literally running out of oil right now
>>544838572China has more days of oil stored than America does, has better access to Russian and Iranian oil, and only uses half of their oil for energy. The amount of oil they need for energy is decreasing as they complete their fission plants, and they already have fusion reactors under construction. Nothing about China's situation is precarious in relative terms to anyone else. Their economy consumes 3x the energy that America's does, and manufactures everything used everywhere except a handful of exotic goods that they're actively scalping. They have one special lense left to reverse engineer and then they'll be churning out EUVs. They have maglev trains and fusion reactors and a fully domestic space station and when they start construction on the international lunar base, America will still be trying to figure out how to maintain its decaying aquaducts.
>>544837653I was of the belief that this guy is just a meme, that /pol/ just dabs on him because he was wrong about China once or twice. Then I looked into it and holy shit, this is probably the most unhinged China bad retard I have ever seen. Like he goes on podcasts to talk for 3 hours about how China is going to collapse within 2 weeks and repeats that for years. And it’s always something else. >China is kill because of cheap housing>China is kill because of expensive housing>China is kill because of Weak yuan>China is kill because of strong yuan>China bad, China bad. The only other commentator that has been so thoroughly and consistently wrong is that Peru’s retard. He is the same, just with Russia. >Russia out of ammo>Russia will never take Mariupol/Bakhmut/Stinky>Russia lost big because Ukraine hit civilian infrastructure >Russia lost again by seizing wrong territoryAll these people are deranged.
>>544838572Then I guess they'll do something about it.If you want to put money down for a bet, I'm game.You: "China will not exist in 5 years"Me: "China will definitely still exist in 5 years"Let's go.
>>544837653lmao we're heading into the Chinese century of domination as we speak. Not only are they technologically advanced past the US, they are the ones who manufacture everything and can stranglehold almost every single consumer and industry good if they so wanted.The chinks achieved this by keeping both the worker and the bourgeoisie down and by not allowing the shareholder to become the strongest pawn in the game. Their style of "communism" allowed them to invest their money back into the system, and of course the corrupt leaders but that doesn't matter, which in turn helps the system overcome past problems. They managed to get all this money from us, as we allowed the shareholders and companies offshore everything to China, because apparently that would have helped us. True, the chinks think nothing of the 70% of the population who live in extreme poverty and work in horrible conditions in the factories, mines or the rice fields, they are just more fodder for the chinese century ahead. Now you might ask, how come the Indians didn't manage to do the same thing, and that's because the Indians love izzat and backstabbing. They'll dedicate resources to knock down everyone around them, but have no planning capability for the far future at all. Meanwhile the Chinaman has had thousands of years of court plotting and generating leaders who deal with their enemies by simply lobbing off their heads. That allows more time to be spent on how you are going to get further and further, until you reach the rank of the emperor.For the West to catch up, we'd need to cull all of our leaders and shadow leaders (billionaires), implement a permanent underclass whose only job is to toil for the success of the others, install a system where of any company leader starts gaining too much power they get clipped and a new leader installed, and we'd need to push out all the inactive and non-working vermin out of our society. Do you think you could do that?
>>544839413>Chinese century of dominationThis isn't going to happen. Their country is genuinely in trouble. That's not unique to China, of course. Where in the world ISN'T fucked right now?>you might ask, how come the Indians didn't manage to do the same thingNobody asks this; Indians are completely retarded and useless, like niggers.>Do you think you could do that?It's not going to happen, no. Far more likely that Revelation will just continue as it has been, then to completion, and all these fake and gay and jew"ish" problems will be thrown into the eternal fire.
>>544837653Demographics are the kill shot. Fertility ~1.0, births collapsing, working-age population already shrinking hard. That alone ends the growth model.Everything else is secondary but real: energy and food import dependence, debt overhang, property bust, export reliance in a deglobalizing world. The CCP’s control apparatus is still intact and the military is not “weaker than Russia/Japan.” Innovation lags in some critical nodes but leads in others.“China will not exist in 5 years” is hyperbole. Previous versions of that prediction already missed. Expect prolonged stagnation, elite fracture risk, and relative decline—not sudden disappearance.
>>544837653zeihan-PILLED
I live in a medium sized northern Mexico city. I will never trust Zeihan because he made a video about my city saying it was the future and shit. Turns out he was paid by the government to come here and hype it up.
>>544837653(You)
>>544837653those landings keep getting harder!
>>544839902These demographic arguments always presume a liberal worldview. Under your view the western world is doing a good job fixing their demographics by importing infinite low iq browns. In reality China's more homogenous demographic situation is miles ahead of pretty much all of the western world, who have set themselves up for infinite race wars
>>544837653two more weeks
>>544837653>please take your money out of china, upper-middle class, mcmansion-dwelling boomies>put it in mexico and india instead, trustyou gotta respect how committed to the bit that literal faggot Zeihan is
>>544837653>hostile superpowers>Indiagenuinely a good laugh. 5 stars
>>544837653
>>544839159>derangedmore like grifter the real deranged people are the ones who still donate and support him despite being fed lies for years.
>>544837653nice try shlomo
>>544841406>>544841336>euromutt and chink bots could bever be wrongchina lost chang
>>544839009When push comes to shove America could easily get access to all of Russia and Iran’s oil. One quick pivot (like is already happening with Russia) and they’ll be best friends. China is fucked.
>>544841949Pajeet
>>544839507>This isn't going to happen. Their country is genuinely in trouble.I keep hearing this from Americans and it's increasingly less true the more I hear it, but it absolutely is the case with America.It feels like cope: "We're doing badly, but so is China" because of the Western desire for there to be balance and trade-offs at all costs.The only reason China would be in trouble right now is if the West unilaterally implodes all at once, because that would cause too much of a global system shock for them to absorb and they have made no moves to take the reins of being the new global hegemon. China's goal is to gradually parasitize Western power until the West is irrelevant except as a wealthy consumer base.
>>544837653>>544838572This faggot is Pro-Russia fuck you and your pro Zigger Jew.
>>544842038>America could easily get access to all of Russia and Iran’s oilAmerica spent its entire air and naval power against Iran in a sixth month campaign. America spent most of its air defenses and most of its long range guided munitions, destroyed almost no targets, and lost most of its bases in that quarter of the region. Likewise, the combined technology, material, money, and manpower of NATO decisively failed to split Russia into rump states like they were hoping to.America depleted its SPR. If Iran and Russia immediately become friendly and sell to America at preferrential rates, and if Venezuela immediately starts producing what it did at its last peak, America will still be facing a massive petroleum shortfall. China's petrol shortfall is smaller, and they're building out a nuclear energy economy and rolling out EVs. China is in a much better energy situation than America. They can cut half their energy consumption and still be a larger energy economy than the US.
>>544842417>because that would cause too much of a global system shock for them to absorbChinese Exports, as in globally in total, are only 20% of their GDP. Their domestic consumer market is larger than all other consumer markets they sell to combined. That's even true of cars, which you don't need in China because they have functioning mass transit. Western collapse would hurt them, but it would not topple their state, let alone their civilization.
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