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Previous: >>544864811

Day 1,705 – Daily assessment: understandingwar.org/analysis/russia-ukraine/#research

▶Latest
>Oct 24: 616 drones over russia (RU claim). Tolyattikauchuk (rocket fuel rubber) burns, plane hit at Yeysk, Crimea dark after likely Taman substation hit. Orel's Proton-Elektrotex (Iskander/Pantsir parts) hit Oct 23
>Starlink/Starshield back above 400 km/h after 10 days of throttling (MoD). WSJ: Musk ordered it; Hegseth blamed "ToS"
>Ukraine signs LOI with Finland's ICEYE & Nokia for its own satcom network, 1st sats 2028
>"Khartia" Op "Veles": 15km through underground pipes into the russian rear near Kupiansk, 30+ POWs
>270-for-270 POW swap, 1st in 2 months, 86 convicted Heroes home. Bodies: 252 fallen Heroes vs 25 russian dead
>Melania brokers local ceasefire in occupied Oleshky (~2k of 24k residents left), from Oct 27 (WH: 29)
>Abu Dhabi trilateral talks in Nov after Witkoff met Putin in St. pidorsburg and called him "a humanitarian"
>Trump floats 200% tariffs on Ukraine AND russia, admits there's barely any trade to tariff
>Diesel deal: 1st 40kt tanker due to sail, RU diesel exports -75% in Sep (Kpler). Graham Act sanctions waived, Rubio says 60 days, order has no end date
>US sends 12 Patriot missiles/month, ~4x less than under Biden; ally-paid batch awaits Hegseth's signature
>ISW: russia's net gain Jan-Sep = 144.5 km2. Putin claimed 6,500

▶Telegram
rentry.org/telosint2023
t.me/ukr_pics
▶Intel
t.me/DeepStateUA
t.me/DroneBomber
t.me/Exilenova_Plus
odin.tradoc.army.mil/WEG (equipment explorer)
ukr.warspotting.net (visually confirmed losses)
▶Maps
deepstatemap.live/en
liveuamap.com/en
▶russian confirmed KIA
hochuvernut.com
200.zona.media/
poteru.net/en/
▶An illustrative article for understanding the "kill zone" in Ukraine's front lines
reuters.com/graphics/UKRAINE-CRISIS/KILL-ZONE/znpnojmknvl/
▶/uhg/-approved vidya
deepstatemap.live/arcade/
▶DISPOSABLE SOLDIER (diary of a RU mobik)
TOURS 1-4: files.catbox.moe/mpcw7p.zip
>>
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TZD btw
>>
>Orel's Proton-Elektrotex (Iskander/Pantsir parts) hit Oct 23
noice
>>
>>544876669
TZD but American flag.
>>
Dogshit AI meme because making your own memes is for slaves now.
>>
>>544876936
You are not American.
>>
>>544876659
Total vpnpetuh death.
>>
>>544877006
Almost, damn stupid ai.
>>
>>544877020
>the whole nation of america is ackshually my safe space
lmao
>>
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pidors are economically left (golems) but socially right (inbred)
>>
>>544877077
I have not met a single person who said a good thing about Ukraine since early 2023. We are over it.
>>
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>I have not met a single person who said a good thing about Ukraine since early 2023. We are over it.
>>
>>544877142
>I have not met a single person since early 2023.
Aw c'mon mearsh, surely your mom still brings you tendies sometimes?
>>
>>544877093
dont forget that most of them live like niggers.if a pidor isnt born in pidorsburg or moscow than his life is basically over already
>>
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>>544877181
Daily reminder the actual Mearsheimer got stranded in Pidorstan because they wouldn’t accept American money.
>>
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>>544877006
>>
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>>544877142
>>
>>544876669
>TZD
Natutally. The only way.
>>
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zisters, what happened? wasn't Elon supposed to take away Starlink forever and save the pynya?
>>
>>544877181
I doubt it
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_life_expectancy
>>
>>544877181
It's funny, on the day of the invasion, my mom said "Putin is an evil butt face. I hope Ukraine wins". Today? She says we need to pull out of Ukraine and just admit Russia won.
>>
>>544877383
It's funny. I constantly see polls about everything. Yet I have never been polled in my life. Not even once. Neither have my family or colleagues. Who the hell are they asking?
>>
>>544877422
>something, something, spirit of anchorage
>>
>>544877444
sure she does pidor
>>
>>544877422
Elon can pull Starlink whenever he wants. Remember that.
>>
>>544877422
Starlink might be back up but Ukraine is no longer allowed to bomb refineries and Putin got a good deal of sanctions relief.
>>
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>>544877539
ok then explain why he hasn't done that yet
>>
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>>544877478
>>
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>>544877689
He will if he sees it necessary. Elon doesn't make idle threats.
>>
>>544877444
Damn she told me to pull out today as well, maybe she's just in one of her moods.
>>
Slava Ukraini

24.10.2026
Tanks — 12444 (+5)
Armored fighting vehicle — 25600 (+3)
Artillery systems — 51565 (+64)
MLRS — 2232 (+2)
Anti-aircraft warfare — 1722 (+2)
Planes — 449
Helicopters — 356
Ground robotic systems — 3011 (+8)
UAV — 579064 (+1855)
Cruise missiles — 5138
Ships (boats) — 35
Submarines — 2
Cars and cisterns — 166501 (+413)
Special equipment — 4852 (+1)
Military personnel — aprx. 1576600 people (+1980)

"Moderation is the character of genuine patriotism, of that patriotism which seeks for the happiness of mankind. There is another species which is caused by hatred of oppression. This is a passion. The other is a principle."
Daniel O'Connell

I am a moderate. TZD.
>>
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>>544877664
lmao schizo delusions and wishcasts
refineries will keep getting rekt until the pyccian economy is an image of entropy
>>
>>544877703
Polls said Hillary would win. Polls said Kamala will win. Polls said Putin will lose. I will never trust in polls.
>>
>he tries to falseflag again
Bore off you fucking bore.
>>
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>>544877838
>some of the 50/50 polls in a close run competition were wrong so I won't believe the 90/10 polls
>>
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>>544877006
>TF...?
>TF..?
Ooohh..ahhh, Team Fortress
Forgive me, I only play souls like
>>
>>544877838
things are very different this time but the reasons would be pointless to explain to a demoralized shill
>>
>>544877917
Again, I don't know anyone who supports Ukraine in real life. They all either are neutral or in a few cases support Russia. But most Americans are neutral and just don't want our money going to Ukraine any more.
>>
>>544877834
When was the last time they struck a refinery?
>>
>>544878134
>Again, I don't know anyone who supports Ukraine in real life.
That's because you are thrash and associate with thrash.
>>
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>>544877838
what poll said putin would lose when he essentially ran unopposed?
you need to make your lies more believable, thirdie.
>>544878134
>don't know anyone who supports Ukraine in real life
that's because you aren't american.
>>
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>>544878134
>the 2 people I meet in my insular basement dweller neet life trumps a broad random survey of americans
>>
>ELON THIS, ELON THAT
Look at it this way. Starlink is going to get some serious competition from Nokia/ICEYE after this fallout
>>
Why do vatnigger shills always cycle between false concerns and gloating
Eg
>Look at all those ukrainians zelensky is tossing in the meatgrinder against their will. He refuses to end the war and allow russia to benevolently liberate those ukrainians!
And then it's
>HAHA look at these khokhol piggers facing russia's glorious wrath. Hoholkraine is nation of nigger loving jews and all those cumskins need to be wiped out by BRICS today!
>>
>>544877917
>>some of the 50/50 polls in a close run competition were wrong
Pretty much all of them were wrong.
Actually that wasn't even the funniest one. Most US polls in 2024 also predicted Kamala would win, too. But the Kamala campaign was a disaster because there were multiple factions in it, so one of them let slip afterwards that none of the internal Democrat polls ever showed Kamala winning. It's not that the polls are a bit inaccurate, it's that they're completely flawed
>>
>>544878243
That's always the nice thing, as soon as the American oligarchy shit things up Europe sees the niche opening and dives in. Exact same with the MIC. Imagine being basically the defacto arms manufacturer of the world and willingly giving that position up.
>>
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>>544878311
hello again brown sir
>>
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>>544878243
florks predicted this.
>>
>>544878255
pozzians are emotional niggers, spiritual jeets, and mentally chinks. comes from being a nation of mongoloid rapebaby mutts with FAS and AIDs.
>>
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>>544877838
this shit bothers you huh
>>
>>544878311
Trump is finaihed. Middle America hates the fucker at this stage.
>>
>>544878176
they hit a petrochemical plant and an OZON warehouse in Omsk today. they already hit the refinery there on October 8, so that gets a break until it's repaired and then they'll hit it again
>>
>>544878417
Has nothing to do with what I just posted
>>
>>544878411
It's sad but true most Americans don't give a fuck about foreign affairs that being said, Tump and Maga is done, over, in the garbage sack. Mainly over the economy and corruption.
>>
how many hohols busified today?

busification . org / en
>>
>>544878509
Yes it does. Trump is finished.
>>
>>544877838
>Polls said Putin will lose.
Any other lies? Putin doesn't need polls, he doesn't get elected, he is holding ceremonies.
>>
>>544878533
what is that Pentafication . org / en?
Please do it correctly so I can click on that.
>>
>>544877664
Bomb the sluice gates open upriver on Moskva river.

for the lulz
>>
>>544878176
They went weeks without striking refineries after major strikes in the summer. It's just to give false relief and wait for air defense to be removed from refineries to their alternative targets, then they return. But why does it matter anyway? You faggots said the refinery strikes were doing nothing until orange kike started whining about them.
>>
>>544878573
Still has nothing to do with what I posted
>>
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>544878533
here's a regex filter for that
>>
>>544878833
when ? i want to see Russians die to flying swastikas
>>544877537
>>
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>>544878320
If the Trump administration has achieved anything, it is destroying the myth that the US is a meritocracy.
>>
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based ukies gonna start bombing helpless mall niggers
>>
>>544878927
Yes it does. Trump is over a lame duck and maga is history.
>>
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>The churka posting behind the irish flag took my advice from the last thread
bless
>>
>>544878320
That's the thing, imagine an alternative that is going to be crucial to NATO/World and that is not in control of couple of Epstein class elites.
That cannot be hacked or plug pulled because of political or personal reasons (Elon) and a big fuck you to USA/Trump
>>
>>544878134
>and just don't want our money going to Ukraine any more
Why do you retarded shills still peddle this line when it hasn't even been true for the last 2 years? I don't undestand.
>>
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>>544880837
the zhills don't get much training or many resources. just a folder of images to spam and a script.
>>
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>>544878134
>But most Americans are neutral and just don't want our money going to Ukraine any more.
last aid package was in 2024, everything sent after that was paid in full by europe, including starlink/starshield services.

you're not spending anything anymore, you're literally profiting from the war now.
>>
>>544881015
lots of no u material
>>
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>>544877020
>You are not American
The no u, lol
>>
>>544877838
Hillary won by actual democratic standards
>>
>>544878320
isnt a lot of that arms production in red states too?
>>
>>544882051
Of course. Miggers are unbelievably low iq. Dems aren’t much better, they could literally just clamp down on immigration and infinite genders and start a thousand year dem reich but don’t
>>
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>>544877027
>petuh

what is a petuh?
>>
>>544881159
>last aid package was in 2024

This is false. We never stopped sending aid to ukraine.
>>
>>544881159
>you're not spending anything anymore, you're literally profiting from the war now.
this. i wish Europe jumped on the stage and started selling their products in place of burgers
>>
>>544882937
>clamp down on immigration
But that would be nationalism and democrats are already socialists. And those two words can't be ever combined in positive context because reasons.
>>
>>544884152
Correct me if I’m wrong but haven’t the Danes successfully limited immigration while remaining left leaning
>>
>>544884323
Eh, they have been doing things to limit immigration, but honestly I have no idea what sort of political leanings their parties have
>>
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>>544883478
>This is false. We never stopped sending aid to ukraine.
>>
>>544883478
okay, did the US taxpayers pay for the aid sent in 2025 and 2026?
how much money has US taxpayers spent on Ukranian aid since 2024 when the last aid package was approved?
>>
>>544884807
>proofs

do you support ukraine?
>>
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>>544876659
starlink status? crimea beach party status? busification status? KEKAROOOO LOLLOLLOL
>>
>>544884814
>okay, did the US taxpayers pay for the aid sent in 2025 and 2026?

the failures in ukraine are so profound that US tax dollars must be involved.

>how much money has US taxpayers spent on Ukranian aid since 2024

You're asking me to provide you a figure that would be considered classified.

We wont know the total cost of Project Ukraine until all the people involved in it have passed away from old age.
>>
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>>544885020
>do you support ukraine?
That has nothing to do with my question!

>This is false. We never stopped sending aid to ukraine.
Produce Proof!
>>
>>544885120
>Trust me bro
>>
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>>544885120
>>544885095
>>
>>544885200
>That has nothing to do with my question!

it has everything to do with your question. Trannies dont ask for sources because they want to pursue a better understanding of reality (truth).

They ask for a source so they can tell you how unsuitable it is. The ask for proof, so they can tell you its fake.

>Produce Proof!

do you support ukraine?
>>
>>544885291
majority of americans support ukraine
>>
>>544876659
That will be a 25% tip.
Thank you!
>>
>>544885291
do you support dropping a nuke into moscow?
>>
>>544885218
we'll just ignore the 20 fucking times Rubio provided a 5 minute response to the press on the subject of support of ukraine.

we will have to ignore the fact you can google "Marco Rubio We have always supported ukraine" and be presented with millions of results.

We will ignore the fact the Rat King speaks of surrender and also says its a "shame we lost aid from the US."
>>
>>544885331
>majority of americans support ukraine

this is a matter of stated vs. revealed preferences.

The midterms approach, and it is near impossible to find any candidate running on the issue of giving MORE aid to ukraine.

Conversely, the president is once again telling everyone how much ukraine isnt worth it, and should be abandoned.

Is Trump doing this because a majority of Americans support ukraine?

Trannies can never think things through.
>>
>>544885120
>the failures in ukraine are so profound that US tax dollars must be involved.
not a proof
>You're asking me to provide you a figure that would be considered classified.
thats very convenient for your argument.

riddle me this pajeet, why did every aid package during Biden administration come with a public money number, while since Trump (who ran a platform on ending ukraine end entirely) took over in january 2025 all those aid packages stopped being approved and no budget has been announced for ukraine aid.
why would the anti-ukraine president hide any aid sent to ukraine if that was his political position when people voted on him?
>>
>>544876659
We know Ukraine the shithole is losing Kraut. No need to make a thread about it because you are seething
>>
>>544885480
>not a proof

trannies dont get a proof.

what would you do with it if it was given to you?

Jesus could descend from the heavens and tell you the reality of things, and if you didnt like what he said, you would call him a zigger on a vpn.
>>
>>544884323
there are still a few old timey lefties that see mass immigration as being anti-worker but they are rare.
>>
>>544885558
if you give me proof that my argument is wrong, I will admit to it.
thats the motivation, and remember that you came in here voicing your opinion and we say its wrong, the ball is in your hand.
>>
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>>544885453
>>
if burgers still support Ukraine with packages then they're doing it though unofficial channels, bypassing the orange retard and his clique, meaning that the support is limited
>>
>>544885654
>5% from age 30-44
i feel ashamed of being part of the millenial disgrace
>>
>>544885640
Know what I’ve never understood as a left leaning individual? Why right wingers don’t argue anti-immigration from the perspective of the emigrating country (example: “you’re telling me you’re fine destroying brown people in India by taking all their best people?”) I cannot tell you how often I get deer in the headlights looks from those in favour of mass immigration
>>
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lol
>>
>>544885966
Generally because caring about the well-being of foreign countries does not really sell that well to right wing voters. So you kinda double whammy by pissing off both right and left wing voters
>>
>>544886418
I am talking explicitly about a right winger trying to convince a left winger, whether or not the right winger cares about other countries
>>
so is crimea out?
>>
>>544885654
>this is a matter of stated vs. revealed preferences.

do you understand what this is?

who is going to say they "sympathize" with Russia?

>Economist polling

1) polling is meant to shepherd public opinion, not reveal it.

2) Here is the Zanny Beddoes, the editor in chief of the Economist, saying its a good thing ukrainians are dying and we arent.

https://youtu.be/7cmWbSv-GOE?t=556
>>
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>>544887157
>>
>>544885558
>what would you do with it if it was given to you?
check it. thats the whole problem, isnt it

every time you actually handed one over, it got checked
>Livy's "Dear John letters" turned out to be HBO's Rome
>the Military Summary video got Drapatyi's job right and you didnt
>your ukrainian porch pirates came from a self-labeled parody account

men who never hand over proof dont get to tell anyone what they would do with it. you've been told
>>
>>544887233
>check it.

you mean you would ask some AI to do the work for you and you would paste the results.

that is what is meant when you say "check it"

Its also a bit telling that you thrust yourself into the role of a reddit fact checker.

>Livy's "Dear John letters" turned out to be HBO's Rome

what good is a fact checker when the person doing the checking is a profound retard?

you asked an AI to find examples of a "Dear John letter" in the works of Livy. Of course you cant think through how deeply retarded that is.

this is why you fail at everything.
>>
>>544887233

take a look here >>544887193

I would post polling done by a favorite breakfast show of mine, and you discounted it because it only had 1,200 people for a sample size.

Look at what The Economist serves up.
>>
>>544887416
>you asked an AI to find examples of a "Dear John letter" in the works of Livy
>Of course you cant think through how deeply retarded that is
you claimed Livy had them, anon. evocati wives, dacian catamites, the works. calling the search deeply retarded is calling your own claim deeply retarded. thank you for the confession

earlier tonight you were serene. jesus descending from the heavens, the reality of things. the sermon voice lasted exactly one reply before it was "profound" and "deeply" and "you fail at everything"

a navy man should know this one. the colonel who sneers at the JAG lieutenant all afternoon, then screams that nobody can handle the truth and yells the confession straight into the court record. thats you. dish all night, fold at the first cross

btw. Livy does have soldiers wondering about their wives. book 1, siege of Ardea. Collatinus says words arent needed, ride home and check. they checked. Lucretia was at her wool
the only "Dear John" in Livy is a fact check that came back faithful. you've been told
>>
TZD
>>
>>544887498
lets go back to the basics, since basic questions seem to escape you

>you discounted it because it only had 1,200 people
was it the size? or was it who answers? so who answered your breakfast show poll? anyone who wasnt already watching that show?

1,200 vs 1,501. whats the margin of error difference between those? about a third of a point. so if size was the objection, why would anyone keep one and bin the other?

YouGov drew its sample to match the census by gender, age, race, education, region and voter registration. what did your show stratify by? how many Harris voters did it have? where is its crosstab?

now read the screenshot you linked
>Trump voters: 49 Ukraine, 5 Russia
>MAGA: 50 Ukraine, 5 Russia
>Conservatives: 52 Ukraine, 6 Russia
find me one column where Russia wins. ill wait

the MAGA column is 351 people btw. smaller than your show. does that one count, or only polls that agree with you?

earlier tonight nobody got a proof. now youre double posting one at the same (You), and it says 66 to 3. you've been told
>>
now that we can look back at it, the attempts to blame ukraine for the diesel prices were a huge failure
>>
>>544887939
Everyone needs a good scapegoat
>>
>>544877664
>Ukraine is no longer allowed to bomb refineries
Really ? This seems pretty unlikely, almost like some kind of fagged out cope fantasy from a deluded zigger shill.
>>
>>544878355
Fucking harsh but am inclined to agree.
>>
>>544881587
American voting system for the president discourages voting against the dominant color of the state. As such the 'popular vote' does not represent actual democratic vote. She might have won, in truth it is unknown.
>>
>>544885453
>Is Trump doing this because a majority of Americans support ukraine?
Oh gee, you got me there lol...
>>
>>544876659
>the first good uke memmie
>>
>>544887936
was it the size?

I bet you encounter this issue frequently.

>so who answered your breakfast show poll?

Patriots. Who answered your Economist polling?

>drew its sample to match the census by gender, age, race, education, region and voter registration.

and a man in dress makes a woman.

the shit you trannies say sometimes.
>>
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Im so sorry truly
>>
>>544876659
>that pic
Holy fuck, you leftists still can’t meme
>>
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Oh, I want to see you natofags defend picrel
>>
>>544888840
Get Russia to stop killing them. Putin seems like he's rational, he'll listen



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