https://x.com/atrupar/status/2114348258688442868
>>544906899>NO IT'S RIGGEDLike 2020?
>>544906899That's abnormally high. For races the size of congressional districts, a much smaller sample size than 1% is used. A Congressional district is about 760k people. A statistically valid sample for a group that large is about 385 people.
>>544906899They need to convince the Miggers it's rigged and stolen when they lose, starting early is good, it conditions the Migger to accept it.
>>544908801Turn out for these mid terms will probably be record level because of how badly Trump has fucked everything up.
>>544908849Maybe, maybe not. Republicans who thought Trump was going to be different from the rest of the swamp creatures in the party aren't going to be all that existed to go to the polls to vote for people who support "Jeb" Trump. Wouldn't be surprised if many of them sit on their hands and turn out is low for Republicans.
>>544909420I can tell you this, I'm not voting except in the local elections because they are all fucking retarded.
>>544909420I meant record turn out against trump
>>544906899Even the polling companies are admitting they are bullshit.
>>544909420I think the opposite would happen. Since theyre white, theyll have the integrity to vote blue these midterms to try and fix their mistake.
What are the betters saying?
>>544908849>Turn out for these mid terms will probably be record level because of how badly Trump has fucked everything up.
>>544908849Why would people vote democrat in their local and state elections if they're mad at the executive branch? To vote for liberal rule in their town or state? Because orange man bad?
>>544906899>My poll of people at my events tells me that YOUR polls are wrong kek
>>544906899>big arena>300 peopleGo back to watching porn with your son, dumbass
>>544906899>Huge arena>300 people
>>544906899So basically I’m just gonna not vote for him (Vivek!!)I know….. UGH I know…. I’m sorry!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!It’s just that I’m not gonna vote for him is allHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAAHAAHAAHA
>>544910623Because congress being full of trump dick suckers is partly what is enabling him
>>544906899uh oh delulu
>>544910940...but why would conservatives vote for democrats? They aren't. Trump's gone in 2 years. The senators, reps, mayors, council members, etc aren't.
>>544910850Stealing this
>>544910623Yeah, that about covers it. That and the right is running a bunch ofiteral corporate shills this year. Like holy shit, what were you guys smoking when you nominated paxton and rogers?
>>544906899Polls do over sample Democrats but they often control for that anywaysRepublicans overperform polls especially in certain areas but they don’t overperform the polls by double digits usually. Early voting data is also pretty grim in Virginia right now
>>544911089>but why would conservatives vote for democratsthey wouldn't. But independents would.
VOTE INDEPENDENT>VOTE THIRD PARTY VOTE INDEPENDENT>VOTE THIRD PARTY VOTE INDEPENDENT>VOTE THIRD PARTY VOTE INDEPENDENT>VOTE THIRD PARTY VOTE INDEPENDENT>VOTE THIRD PARTY VOTE INDEPENDENT>VOTE THIRD PARTY VOTE INDEPENDENT>VOTE THIRD PARTY VOTE INDEPENDENT>VOTE THIRD PARTY VOTE INDEPENDENT>VOTE THIRD PARTY VOTE INDEPENDENT>VOTE THIRD PARTY VOTE INDEPENDENT>VOTE THIRD PARTY VOTE INDEPENDENT>VOTE THIRD PARTYVOTE INDEPENDENT>VOTE THIRD PARTY VOTE INDEPENDENT>VOTE THIRD PARTY VOTE INDEPENDENT>VOTE THIRD PARTY VOTE INDEPENDENT>VOTE THIRD PARTY VOTE INDEPENDENT>VOTE THIRD PARTY VOTE INDEPENDENT>VOTE THIRD PARTY VOTE INDEPENDENT>VOTE THIRD PARTY VOTE INDEPENDENT>VOTE THIRD PARTY VOTE INDEPENDENT>VOTE THIRD PARTY VOTE INDEPENDENT>VOTE THIRD PARTY VOTE INDEPENDENT>VOTE THIRD PARTY VOTE INDEPENDENT>VOTE THIRD PARTY
>>544911089I mean democrats and independents are going to turn out in record numbers.
>>544911363Nah, I'm good. This year we send a message
>>544906899>among 300 peoplethis guy can't even turn out a room of more than 50 people tops.source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pa7_O-KHWkg
>>544908849perhaps but the 2024 UK election had a very low turnout because everyone knew that labour would win, so left and right-wingers stayed at home
>>544909862I'd vote but I missed the registration deadline. I live in a red state so I doubt it would matter much.
>>544908801>A Congressional district is about 760k peopleThey used to add representatives as the population grew and then in the 1920s just stopped. It's time to start adding some reps. I think the number should be at least 1200. They shouldn't represent more than about 250k.
>>544911162I don't think anyone who isn't retarded voted in the Republican primaries this year. How the fuck do you end up with a street-shitting antiwhite psycho like Vivek as a gubernatorial candidate?
>>544911870elections are not real
>>544906899>October 25: I'm telling you, these polls are off.>October 26: I'm telling you, these polls are off.>October 27: I'm telling you, these polls are off.>October 28: I'm telling you, these polls are off.>October 29: I'm telling you, these polls are off.>October 30: I'm telling you, these polls are off.>October 31: I'm telling you, these polls are off.>November 1: I'm telling you, these polls are off.>November 2: I'm telling you, these polls are off.>November 3: I'm telling you, these polls are off.>November 4: The machines were hacked! The count was rigged!>November 5: The machines were hacked! The count was rigged!>November 6: The machines were hacked! The count was rigged!>November 7: The machines were hacked! The count was rigged!>November 8: The machines were hacked! The count was rigged!>Etc.Everyone knows this is how it's going to be
>>544912114I look forward to the riot
>>544912114>November 9: It's the democrats fault for ruining the economy and high gas prices! They run congress/senate now!Screencap this.
>>544906899the midterms are going to be like the heckin holocaust for migatardssomehow they never saw it coming, and they think they totally didn't deserve it
>>544906899Two polling firms were revealed as fake, 1 disappeared suddenly, and 1 stopped issuing polls because they used data from one of the fake pollsters, all in the last week.
>>544912114Trump is pre-emptively suing Alaska if Republicans lose lolThere's no way they'd ever admit they lost
>>544911439Except they already haven't. Early voting democrat numbers has dropped a lot and the independents aren't showing up.
>>544912231I look forward to the lack of riotThey will take their loss and go clock in, while talking about trannies and jesus and other delusions
>>544912114>>544912231STOP THE STEAL!!!1
>>544906899all polls are fake and gay.they're all fake.and they're all gay.all of them.they don't seek to understandthey seek to influencethey're all fakeand they're all gayall of them
>>544912392delusional
>>544910842You under estimate how big Americans are
>>544912414STOP THE COUNT was funnier. If they had stopped the count right there it just would have meant the Democrats still won, cause they were ahead.
dems gonna take the senate and this nigga is gonna lose his job
>>544906899Well he’s right about that. Democrats will probably win the House and maybe the Senate but only because Republicans don’t show up. It’s not a radical shift in the public’s political beliefs.
>>544906899Demoralized their own base so much they don't participateThis is how you lose elections, but somehow, this jew is the speaker and doesn't want to acknowledge it. November is coming
>>544912114I don't care. They can cry all the want. It doesn't matter. Trump is still crying about the 2020 election, but guess what? He lost, and when he lost, Biden took over as president. And when the Republicans lose the midterms BIGLY next month, the Democrats will take over. The fact that they will cry, seethe, and make endless excuses after the fact doesn't matter at all other than to entertain and amuse me.
>>544912822I kek'd
>>544906899Voting is for faggots. Democracy is canceled. It was cancelled generations ago. Most dipshits didn't get the memo. Your vote is meaningless, you do not get to even choose the candidates, and you do not have corporate sponsorship. You are are a subject who thinks his vote somehow matters. Democracy is only for large corporations, organizations, and businesses. The government was hijacked from the people right after the Civil War. And rightly so, because the people are idiots and they never deserved a real democracy. The average person only deserves to be subjugated. Happy voting next month!
>>544906899I don't know who I gave my phone number to but I'm getting inundated with texts asking me to take polls. I never do, though, because they're all for democrats.
>>544908819Yep. Same exact shit that happened in 2020.
>>544906899kike johnson is a judeo masonic puppet like Trump Elon and most of the politicians. kill them all or die with them.
>>544906899Even their own media sloppers polls are against them, this is massive cope.
>>544906899It is sorta true. I got the phone number of this liberal Jewish woman who's passed on. Every single day I get a solicitation for my opinion. Never before in all my life was I ever asked by any of these polling firms. Very very odd. I further don't know anyone who has been contacted by these firms. Are all polls nothing but elderly Jewish women?
>>544909420I was totally open to, and thought I would, vote Democrat in this election. But seeing them just ignore the issue of war in Iran and Epstein, and focus instead on le ebul white man and globohomo policies, I was taken aback. I'm sorta shocked. I can't believe they thought they could win by dint of Trump's obnoxious excesses. These people really are dangerous radicals.
>>544912460TrueTrueTrueAnd True
>>544911089It's punitive. If the GOP wants power, they shouldn't do the opposite of what they campaign on. Evil retards.
>>544906899Yeah, they're intentionally off so that the dems who run everything through a consensus filter will think they're on "the right side of history".
>>544912461Not so. Im being totally in earnest. I was fully prepared to punish Republicans in this election. But the Democrats did not even give us that choice. The option they gave us was to hasten our demise. Did they really think this message would appeal to voters? I see the tone deaf ham-fistedness of Obama all over this. Obama does not understand America, much less Americans. He hates us. Hawaii, Williamsburg Brooklyn and Chicago are not a cross section of America.
>>544914804stfu
>>544908819>no evidence of widespread voter fraudCan we check?>no
>>544906899I don't answer any polls, calls, or fundraising requests... but I'm also not voting for any Republicans this midterm.
>>544912853Forgot about that, kek
>>544906899funniest possible election result would be the senate being tied and john fetterman basically controlling it for the next two years
>>544914731So you think.conservstives are going to vote democrats, and all their insane ideological horseshit, in to temporarily "punish" their political party? And let Woke 2.0 start? Yeah, that's not happening.
>>544915361I am :) I know many other racially conscious young men who are doing the same cope and seethe migger
>>544914853Nobody has ever argued there's no fraud. The argument is that there's no mass fraud that changes elections. Your own image says 28 people. That's not changing a national election and those people got arrested.
>>544915361People put too much faith in brand/party loyalty.
>>544911870honestly I can't wait for Vivek's crash out when he loses. It'll be legendary, the dumb jeet thought that Trump 2024 energy would continue and he'd be swept into office easily. However, Trumpenstein swallowing jew cock, starting wars, destroying the economy and RepubliCONS immediate attack and war on the poor mostly harming red state voters completely destroyed all that momentum
>>544912270kek
>>544915456>racially consciouslibtard detected. You're a faggot leftist and always have been ;)
>>544912270>>544915711Joe Biden's fault
>>544906899why are you hiding your flag, nigger?
>>544915747>your a heckin leftistlol no
>>544916252Lol but you're gonna vote Democrat? Lol shut the fuck up, libtard.
>>544916375Keep coping kike slave, damn right I’m voting dem for midterms :) I voted for Trump 3 times
>>544915533Just 20k illegals on the California voter roles. Nothing to see here.
>>544915361Just like no one would punish the Democrats for putting up kamala by voting trump?
It's really dumb to make pretend polls anyways.Saying a democrat is going to win wouldn't that inspire republicans to hurry and go vote? wouldn't that tell democrat voters that their vote isn't needed because they are winning already?
>>544917026The most they do is stay home. The game is to demoralize the other party while trying to court the independent. There are plenty of partisans and the party already has their support but they can be demoralized into not voting.
>>544915361yes, there are lots of people here voting for talarico and abbot on the same ballot. i even linked a video in this thread of people here talking about it.t. south texan
Yeah I'm sure people are thrilled to vote for Mike Zogson again.
>>544917473is this real?
>>544917531Yep. Dolly partons sister complained about it recently
>>544915361>So you think.conservstives are going to vote democrats, and all their insane ideological horseshit, in to temporarily "punish" their political party?Yes.Because that's historically how people vote.Hell, that's part of WHY Republicans were able to gain control of all 3 branches in the last election; people were angry at the retarded policies of the Dems and hated all the woke shit.They had carte blanche to do all the things people wanted them to do, and outside of immigration they did none of them.They completely fucked the economy at the behest of Israel and their corporate AI/data center stooges, the latter of whom will all completely change their tunes and suck the dicks of Democrats once the Republicans are out of office.They had the full backing of the people for the first time in the 21st century and they fucking squandered it for Jews.A pox on the Republican party, they're just as incompetent and evil as the Dems, and I hope everyone in their top brass and all their masters gets thrown in fucking prison at minimum, ideally they'd be charged with treason.
>>544917531Yes, it's been reported in Tennessee, Louisiana, and Texas so far.
>>544917473This is why you always check before submitting or request a paper ballot.
>>544908596Riggity riggity riggity
>>544918641Uh huh. And democrats are going to do what, exactly, to fix anything? Nobody is voting for them out of retarded spite. So they can start Woke 2.0 and shove us back into hell planet? Because that is literally all they will do.
>>544919099>And democrats are going to do what, exactly, to fix anything?Nothing, they're going to hopefully imprison the Republicans who betrayed us, then they'll probably take the blame for the oncoming economic collapse we've been putting off since 2009.
>>544919099>Nobody is voting for them out of retarded spite.I think the Dems just paid a bunch of "right wing" "influencers" to push this slop and it's actually a big part of their midterm strategy, lol
>>544918879It offers a good explanation to why so many votes were cast for Trump in 2024 that were 100% democrat for all the other candidates in different offices. It explains the utter dismay Trump had at losing in 2020, and his continuing projection that there was cheating.
>>544906899>3 out of 300Polling 1% of the population is a big fucking poll. That's like 34 million people.This Johnson guy sounds like he's been a politician too long, and needs to hone his skills in the private sector some more.
>>544906899There's just something really off about Mike Johnson that sets my teeth on edge. Most, if not all politicians are corrupt...but there's something more to him.
>>544906899yeah they're off, but not in the direction he thinks they are. i don't think these cunts realize how pissed the fuck off we are about being lied to.
I don't like this black boy adopter
>>544906899Golden Age were in. Everybody loves the economy. A beaner or two here and there getting shot dead makes this low inflation - affordable gas economy total paradise. Staying mad at trannies is also awesome.
>>544911462Yeah. Trump fuck yo so bad we might not even have a Republican Party soon.
>>544910476That man is a Saudi. That's YOUR ally, migger jew!
>>544919473yeah, it's called gaydar
>>544906899Kike lovers blew it, sorry. They didn’t do anything for Whites
>>544919498>i don't think these cunts realize how pissed the fuck off we are about being lied to.lol, you would have no doubt roped or trooned out if you had been around to see what the Republicans were like before Trump. You're actually spoiled, believe it or not.
>>544919597There is that shit where his wife's black son and him monitor each other's porn usage. However I still think it's something else I can't put my finger on. There's just something about Johnson that I do not like at all, more than any other politician.
>>544915361I am. Republicans haven’t done anything for Whites, that’s the sole reason I voted for them. Now I want revenge. Mike Johnson adopting a nigger and talking down to Whites like they’re the problem was enough for me. Add on all of this jeet worship, kike war, terrible economy, diversity not decreasing, etc - I just want it to burn.
>>544918641They didn’t even do the needful on immigration seeing how they’ve went full steam ahead with jeet worship
>>544919836>jeet worshipStop listening to "influencers". It's making you retarded.
>>544919769The country was much Whiter back then, the stakes were significantly lower.
>>544919871>ignore your eyesHaha, no. Voting dem, idc. Influencers don’t need to tell me how much endorsement people like Trump have thrown behind Vivek of all people. Non-Whites should never have been let into this country, let alone be allowed to run for office, and an indian as scummy as that is the ultimate insult
>>544919836Yea, all the cuckservative talking heads are now going out and whining about people being mean to jeets, since it's obvious they're the new imported goyslaves that they plan on replacing everyone with since they love Israel.
>>544919928>The country was much Whiter back then, the stakes were significantly lower.>>544920002>Haha, no. Voting dem, idc."I'm so mad about the country's demographics that I'm voting for the party that caused it in the first place"This is a bit, right?
>>544919800>Republicans haven’t done anything for Whites, that’s the sole reason I voted for them“If you can convince the lowest white man he's better than the best colored man, he won't notice you're picking his pocket. Hell, give him somebody to look down on, and he'll empty his pockets for you.” Lyndon B. JohnsonThey've got you convinced that democrats are only doing things for minorities, when they really do things for every race, including whites. Republicans only serve themselves.
>>544919251Lol stfu retard, your fever dream isn't gonna happen. You think dems aren't even bigger traitors? Literally kill yourself, tranny.
>>544919799He looks like colbert
>>544919800>I WANT REVENGE SO I'M GONNA VOTE FOR OPEN BORDERS AND WOKE 2.0 AND CHILD GENITAL MUTILATIPN AND NIGGER WORSHIP AND YAS KWEEN SLAY GIRL BOSSES!!! FUCKING BLUMPFF!! Er, I mean, fellow conservative here....Lol kys
>>544920326>They've got you convinced that democrats are only doing things for minorities, when they really do things for every race, including whites.you must be 13 years old to post here.
>>544920267>"I'm so mad about the country's demographics that I'm voting for the party that caused it in the first place"Look at how Texas got jeeted harder than Canada under decades of unbroken Republican rule.
>>544920267Ignore reagan's amnesty
>>544920326>They've got you convinced that democrats are only doing things for minorities,because they are>when they really do things for every race, including whites.Lol, no. Literally kill yourself in front of your mother.
>>544920338I look forward to your kvetching in a little over a week, sadly you will learn absolutely fucking nothing from this.
Can't wait for the melty
>>544906899I honestly think he's right. I don't think Democrats are going to have a landslide victory. They'll pick up some seats, sure, but they won't have a majority in either the House or the Senate
>>544920512Lol oh yeah that blue wave they've been telling you for 10 years with every election is surely rolling in this year!! Lol libtards are such easily led sheep.
>>544906899I've actually had several door-to-door people coming to my house in just the last few weeks, somehow knowing my name, and "polling me" on if/how/where I'll be voting (though I think they were more so just peons working for candidates and trying to get people to go out and vote). First time I've ever been "polled" in my life though.
>>544920267>“At its core, immigration is a sign of a confident and successful nation. Immigrants’ talent and hard work and love of freedom have helped us become the leader of the world.”–President George W. Bush
>>544911820Yup. Pack the House imo. Make it too expensive for the major parties to pay strict attention to every single race -- get some third parties and actual representatives of the people in there. It'll also make corruption via lobbying and campaign donations more expensive, to boot.I think 1:250k is way too conservative, personally. I think we should just open the fucking floodgates and make it 1:100k. The House is supposed to be the people's branch. It's become Senate-lite. We need to become less controllable.
>>544920577They are probably for ed to go door to door now that everyone has a hair trigger for refusing to answer potential indian scam calls, and numbers are getting reported as spam and blocked left and right.
>>544919799Mike and JD Vance have something in common.Neither has ever had ANY job in their entire lives.
>>544911089>why would conservatives vote for democrats?Because the people flipping to vote democrat aren't conservatives. All of the geriatric republicans are still voting for Trump. Nearly the entirety of the younger independent voting bloc that voted for him in 2024 has abandoned him. They voted for him because of inflation and his promise to end wars. Now he's just a puppet for Israel.
>>544906899Impossible
>>544920982>maybe if I pull a bunch of horseshit out of my ass and write a paragraph about it people will believe my lies!Again: why would conservative independents vote in state-level elections for democrats? Orange man bad isn't a cause for thst, esp since he'll be out in 2 years.
>>544920491You can convince yourself that being white is some kind of accomplishment, but the men who serve Israel and oligarchs look at you and see chattel, like shit on their shoe.
>>544919799>There's just something about Johnson that I do not like at all, more than any other politician.He's perfected this kind of studied, anodyne demeanor which makes him seem like a dull, bovine, generic guy (his name is Mike Johnson for fuck's sake) when in reality he's just as conniving, ambitious, and calculated as the rest of them. It's kind of like... have you ever noticed how the old school corporate elite guys always end up looking like bland, forgettable guys in suits? They just look like accountants and dorks but in reality they are absolutely ruthless people who would murder you in the street if the cost benefit were right. It's all by design. They're wolves in sheep's clothing. Mike Johnson is the exact same way.
>>544921163Post hand. Anything darker than light taupe needs to enter the incinerator.
>>544911820>>544920822It used to be 1 representative per 30k people. The cap in the 1920s was because they had congress lock up trying to pass more seats after the 1920 census. And now they use the excuse of not enough space for 4000 representatives if we really had things setup correctly of 1 per 30k. It would also be more difficult to gerrymander so both parties will never remove the cap. Which is bullshit. The house of representatives exist to create bills that they vote on to pass to senate, initiate impeachment, vote to elect president if electoral collage is unable and oversight. 2 of those roles are extremely rare. Voting and creating laws is primary job and oversight is secondary job. That is all they do and having 435 or 4350 doesnt change the fact. Just means they would have to modernize voting process and oversight. A plus of 1 to 30k is less grandstanding and getting clips for tv during oversight hearings as if your 30k are pissed a challenger could reasonable speak to thousands of people while you are in DC to overthrow you if you poorly represent your people.But this also creates the situation we have today where the rich throw money to control your representative so they listen to donors instead of you. A smaller pool being represented means you can more easily overthrow someone corrupt. It pisses me off to no end that it is still capped but it never will be uncapped either.
>>544906899>I'm telling you, these polls are off. All of them.
>>544921058>Muh decade old opinion piece >All polls are always wrong now>Posts it in every thread
>>544906899You get the Molly Tibbits Election Results these-days?
>>544921149I’m going to do it punish the GOP for breaking its promises>inb4 “b-b-b-but you’re just a lifelong Democrat!”You can stay willfully out of touch all you want
>>544908849Turnout will be record lows. Screenshot this.
>>544921305It's legitimately infuriating. There are genuinely so fucking many things which could be done to modernize our government and maybe even make it last another 250 years. Lots of them aren't even fucking complicated. But because the two major parties have a set of interests completely separate from the interests of the country itself, it's unlikely we'll ever see anything radical happen. They'll just quietly circle the wagons to protect what's theirs, even if it's literally killing our fucking country.
>>544921545the gop will win again in a landslide and everyone will realize they live in russia now
>>544921600the reason why our government no longer works in because one side was radicalized to support overthrowing our country for the pedo elite new world order.If we could go back to a time before fox news youd see both sides working together to make our country great again
I was polled on whether I thought mike johnson was a cucked faggot retard (answered yes obviously)
>>544906899Why don't they teach statistics in the schools over there? If 3 out of 300 have been polled, that's more than enough by multiple orders of magnitude when it comes to political outcomes in a country of 300 0000 000.
These polls purport to gauge a national result based on 1300 people, with a 2% margin of error. Now, that doesn't make sense. Maybe that math works out for a ball of marbles, but human beings differ by region, income level, race, urbanicity....etc. It's an inhomogenous group. The problem is the polls will likely sample some groups way more than others. So they'll split the poll up into demographic groups, then apportion those groups by historic electionscontinued -->
>>544922287Problem 1) Basket casesSo let's say your poll measured 100 black people and 900 white people. But you know that historic elections have been 20% black and 80% white. So you'll re-apportion those 100 blacks to stand for 200.But you can see issues here right? Sampling 100 blacks, out of a population of 40 million blacks, has way bigger error margins. So now you're layering in a much larger error into your results. The error goes like 1/sqrt{n} right? So let's say you split your population into two groups with proportions p and q. p + q = 1And they are reapportioned to two groups P and QP + Q = 1the sampling error of the first basket will be 1/sqrt{pn} and the second basket 1/sqrt{qn}And the net error margin should be sqrt{P/pn + Q/qn} = sqrt{Pq + Qp}/sqrt{pqn}. So it let's say, as with the above example, p = 0.9, q = 0.1, and P = 0.8, Q = 0.2. The error margin will be (1/sqrt{n})*(sqrt{.8*.1 + .9*.2}/sqrt{.9*.1}) = 2.888/sqrt{n}CONCLUSION: We just determined the error margin almost increased 3-fold, on average, by splitting up an inhomogenous data set. -----------------Problem 2) Refolding dataAnother problem is when you are using the same population data to stand in for multiple different factors. Like income level, AND urbanicity AND race, AND region....etc. It's like each person you poll stands as a variable multiple times, in multiple different categories. You're basically re-folding the same data onto itself 5 to 10 times in different proportions. So a black person in the suburbs is standing for the category of "suburban male". But also "black male". And also "Northeastern male"....etc. So let's say his opinion changes, it sends a cascade down that changes the result of like 10 categories of data. This is why, generally, when you are taking samples of data broken up into categories, you often need way, way more data to get accurate results. You can't just use 1300 people or whatever and pretend it's going to stand for the nation.
>>544911462By "we" you mean militias, right?
>>544906899>omg the poll I did in person for a collection of people not here for polls doesn't match up with what I expectedGo take a stats class
>>544922356Okay, then go ahead and bet on red.
>>544922403It's an election year, we gotta use the four boxes of liberty properly. Can't skip steps.
>>544922356On the 2nd point, it's like consider someone voted Republican.Did they vote Republican because they are white? Or because they are rural? Or because they are Christian? Or because they are a gun owner? Or because they are 29? .....etc.You actually don't know. In fact, it could be all of those factors or none of them. But the point is, you can't do this poll and then claim "49% of christians will vote Red", then using the exact same data claim "52% of whites will vote Red. Now you're retrenching the same variables. This is something that should vastly increase error margins. But on the polls, they just give the 2% sampling error like this is a homogeneous bag of marbles. It's fucking not though.
>>544921746>the reason why our government no longer works in because one side was radicalized to support overthrowing our country for the pedo elite new world order.What retarded shit is this? Whatever you say, discord tranny. The left are fucking batshit insane, and that is their official policy. They ain't gonna fix shit, they'll just start Woke 2.0 and we're right back in the 2022-24 hellscape. You believe black lives matter, the future is female, no human is illegal, and men can become women. Even if you don't personally believe that you vote for a party and candidates who do, so by proxy you do. And that's literally ALL the democrats have to offer, more of that horseshit. Instead of voting, make one good decision this election year and kill yourself.
>>544922610With the kind of odds you can get on polymarket right now, I'm actually tempted. You can 10x your money right now. The Republicans have a huge money advantage in this election, they're outspending by magnitudes. Historically that has proven to be a decisive factor. The only thing making me hesitant is how slim the margin in the house is, like 6 seats. So even though I think the losses will be smaller than people imagine, it's difficult to see them under 6 seats.
>>544922356The math works out if you pick a random sample. If you err one way by having or not having one type of a person in your sample, it is precisely balanced by, on expectation, having or not having one other type of a person in the opposite direction, as long as your sample is truly random. If you pick a biased sample, you will, surprise surprise, get biased results.
>>544906899>big arena>300 peopleMaybe you just aren’t very popular?
>>544906899These good for nothing rigging democrats with their fake polls! Just wait till Republicans sweep the midterms, its not even close! Theyll be claiming Republicans rigged the vote because it will be so overwhelming but the truth is the polls were fake all along giving false hope to the loony democrats who Want to mutilate children and turn them gay and want to flood our country with endless parasites while we the people pay for it. Were not falling for those shenanigans any more!
>>544906899Mini Mike looks at porn with his son and has probably jerked him off, the fucking midget weirdo.
>>544906899Aaron Rupar, famous for the "Rupar Edit" Where he cuts videos or quotes off or presents them without their true context, cannot stop posting on /pol/! Sad!
>>544906899Mike looking worried
>>544922889>If you pick a biased sample, you will, surprise surprise, get biased results.It's impossible to not pick a biased sample though. Young people are all online, they aren't doing phone interviews. Black people aren't doing phone interviews. Hispanic immigrants aren't doing phone interviews.You see the problem? Also online polls are hilariously botted and subverted. So what they're trying to do is, get a few samples of each category, then re-apportion the catagories appropriately.But here's the issue. Let's say you have 50 million people, and sample 1000 people among them. You might get 3% error margins. But now you split your basket into 2. So you have 500 people out of 25 million, and 500 people out of 25 million. When you recombine your results, you aren't getting that same 3% error margin back. It's not additive like that. Because the error margin of 500 out of 25 million might be like, 8%. So by splitting your data into baskets, you just drastically increased your error. Oh and, let's not even mention, you have to get your baskets right. We're not even sure the polls are doing that. They fucked that up in 2016 I remember.
>>544906899I'd kinda see the point in all this if dems hadn't been massively overperforming in the majority of the elections so far this year, even if the polls overestimate the dems performance it'd probably still be pretty grim.
>>544922870>Even if you don't personally believe that you vote for a party and candidates who dothe issues that you mentioned that you think are super important are non issues when the alternative is a new world order jewish police state dictatorship the dems learned their lesson about identity politics, they are getting back to their roots of fighting for the working class now
>>544922876Im not reading that
>>544906899We will found out it vey soon
>>544923523Groyper can't read. Groyper is not white.
i VOTED THIRD PARTY
>>544923272I think you're really just describing the Shy Tory Effect. Ultimately, you just have one variable you're interested in: what's the proportion of the people that will vote republicans. Assuming that it's 40 %, a random sample of people will converge towards that 40 %. But if you have knowledge that tories, for instance, are more likely to vote than they are to tell you what they're going to vote, then you might want to bin the data into groups by demographics. In general, however, you wouldn't want to bin them because you simply don't know how the bins behave. Whether someone votes republican because he's Christian, rural, 29, or whatever, is pretty much irrelevant, unless you know how the behaviour of these demographics differs in polls from the elections.
>>544912114I look forward to the J6 boomer tantrum part 2.
>>544906899We go through this shit literally every fucking election. The polls are ALWAYS way off from reality thanks to deceptive practices yet for some reason the goycattle still act as if they're not bogus.
>>544906899big arenas300 people 3 hands 33 hmm
>>544906899polls are usually around 1500 people. out of 300M people in america they're not all gonna be at a trump rallybut he knows that. he's desperate
>>544906899IT'S AFRAID!
>>544906899He's right. Pollsters are deliberately fudging the numbers in favor of Republicans so they can have a "told you so" moment when the results hit.Rs are in an even worse position than the popular polls suggest.
>>544908801People tend to think you need vastly larger samples than you actually do. Why that is a meme and five minutes spent learning power analysis isn't, I don't know.
I still think the funniest poll of all time was the one saying Hillary would win with 98% certaintyThat said the polls were accurate in 2020Seems the polls only matter when the democrats have more funding than republicans
>>544924213>I think you're really just describing the Shy Tory Effect.No, I didn't even mention that. But that's another one. It's crazy how you read my post and came to such a wrong conclusion though.
>>544923443Again, you simpleton: what plans do the democrats have to fix shit? Also you're a complete retard/zoomie if yoh think dems aren't even more kiked than the conservatives. If it's a choice between same shit but horseshit is gone vs same shit but old horseshit like open borders and bam and tranny faggot women shit retards (literally the only platform the dems have, btw), I'll stick with the same old horseshit minus Woke 2.0 as official policy, thanks
>>544924690Musk dropped almost half a billion on you guys this year. We still seem to give a shit about polls.Which is especially fucked, cause the guy spends hundreds of millions to get billions of our tax dollars back. He's rigging elections and turning a profit.
>>544924830>what plans do the democrats have to fix shit?Uh, tax the rich, pay down the debt, outlaw gerrymandering, get money out of politics, ban government insider trading. That sort of stuff.If any of that sounds appealing, vote Abdul and talarico. If it doesn't sound appealing, you probably like america being corrupt
>>544906899He's right.We just had a provincial election here yesterday that blew out the socialists completely. Every poll said it was "even" or "closing the gap".The media shilled this yesterday >Research Co. polling puts the Conservatives at 44% and the NDP at 40%, The result was 64 seats won Cons, 27 seats won socialists. That's not 44-40%
>>544925023You are one big brainwashed sheep man arent you? Holy fucking shit did i cringe hard reading that, you really believe it? Youre one dumb rube arent you?
>>544924815It's because I tend to steelman arguments instead of strawman them. It's pointless to bin people if you don't know that there's going to be a meaningful difference between the bins in how they answer in polls and how they vote in elections.
>>544925023Lol sure thing, retard. Free Healthcare, you say? Golly, are they gonna put soda in the drinking fountains, too? Lol they've never done any of that shit, you young fool. I didn't realize you were on level 1 of Baby's First Politics. You are the naive young dope they've been counting on to fall for their horseshit for the past 60 years. You should seriously consider suicide if you still think this way and you're over 23.
>>544925023nice Reddit spacing
>>544911363yea with one of the two big parties so deeply wounded, there's a chance that a third party can gain credibility and become a bandwagon
>>544924830The thinking is the Democrats should win so the Republicans feel boxed into a corner and feel much stronger pressure to give us what we want, and purge their bad people. A midterm election is a very convenient time to do that, since the stakes are lower. But the only question is, would the cost of giving them control be higher than the benefit we get out of it? I honestly don't know. Also some establishment insiders like John Thune love being in the minority where they don't have to deliver anything. If the midterms are a loss, it might embolden them and interfere with Trump's attempts to dislodge them. So what is the correct move? I honestly have no idea. I guess it boils down to how much you think Trump is really with us. I think the evidence shows Trump is on the right page, but he's being held up by the insiders and the leftists. So I'm for the Republicans this time.I think the main reason people are stumping for Democrats is the ecelebs, like Tucker, like Fuentes, like Enoch, who are making this case. But I think they're just trying to flex their petty ego and not looking at the actual data.
>>544925085>Holy fucking shit did i cringe hard reading that, you really believe it? Youre one dumb rube arent you?you cant even see that the right are literally an evil jewish movement to destroy your life and country because you have been groomed by the most sophisticated military grade propaganda operation ever conceived.
>>544918879electronic voting sux
>>544922876It's almost guaranteed your senate remains controlled by the GOP but your House is almost guaranteed to be D. That means Trump's OBBB legislation remains in effect and your house does a bunch of performative theatre trying to impeach everyone and failing
>>544906899KIKE JEWPAR POSTED QUICK EVERYONE A NEW POST BY KIKE JEWPAR
>>544925085Politicians don't lie! My DOGE check will be here any day now!!>>544925299Literally never said that. You know why you brought it up? Cause you can't argue with anything I -DID- say.
>>544925053>The result was 64 seats won Cons, 27 seats won socialists. That's not 44-40%yeah it was 48-37%, hardly an enormous error and more a quirk of first past the post.see the last british election for more crazy seat numbers relative to % of the vote gotten
>>544924888This country is a failure, I hope he destroys it for all I care
>>544925368>how much Trump is with usHas he not made that obvious by now? Anon, come on.
>>544925318Thanks frien.
>>544925438You call it "performative" but the truth is the President inevitably gets blamed for the divided government. This is always true, and it's an unfortunate reality. The government shutdowns are blamed on the president. The inability to pass anything is blamed on the president.So even though the Democrats are the ones throwing the wrench, the President takes the full blame.
>>544925561Kek. If we're going that route, might as well let the socialists take over, in my opinion.
>>544925368Ugh, AI reply. Try thinking for yourself, libtard. You are discounted from here on out.
>>5449068991% is pretty big for a sample size.
>>544925023Brother, they've been promising this shit since I was a young voter and I'm old as shit now. They are never going to give you this. It never happens and they always have an excuse for why they couldn't follow up on their promises. It's all a game to them. You're a fool. like I was once. I'm not telling you to vote Red; they are all the same team, just a different color tie.
>>544911820This is retarded because representation is still proportional, and if you have 3000 congressmen you might as well have zero, because it will be logistically impossible to get anything done in less than a year.
>>544925569>Has he not made that obvious by now?Well tripling his net worth in his first two years kind of shows divided loyalties
>>544925751Not ready to give up yet. But when I do, rest assured it will be so I can burn the shell of a country to the ground.But it's not quite time for that.
>>544920326Doing things for minorities directly hurts White agency, since it often involves increasing immigration, encouraging diversity, and directing resources to non-Whites. I’m voting for dems because I want to punish republicans for not making things better for Whites and trying to play a new kind of diversity game by jeeting the country. That’s all. Non-Whites are not my countrymen
>>5449140242020 was stolen tho
>>544906899I m not sure if this one is wearing a skinsuit.
>>544920404Cry about it. I voted for Trump 3 times. His endorsement of vivek was the last straw for me, and I already leaning away due to the terrible kike war policy. Fuck jeets, fuck kikes, and fuck republicans who value shitskins over Whites but pretend to be pro-White to get our votes
>>544925809It's not like they get anything done now Mike johnson shutdown Congress so many times, this is the least effective Congress in the history of america. Part of why I want to take the majority away from the right. They're fighting tooth and nail to make sure nothing gets done.
>>544910623You lost Vivek
>>544906899i wish they would.
>>544926050Vivek is JD Vance's man. Trump endorsed him because Vance is the chosen successor. The thing to understand about Vance is that he is not on your side. But he's on nobody's side. He's a political creature who will serve whatever agenda best serves him. If he's president, you can influence him, but so can everyone else. So this is basically a skill-check for how loud you can raise your voice. I think Vance could turn out good. Not great, not revolutionary.
>>544926050You might as well just go all the way and troon out.
>>544926280You think Vivek, Kash and JD ever Cornelled a lizard together?
>>544906899Fuck off Aaron.
>>544925707>uses libtard unironicallyCheck out grandpa here. Fuck sakes, miggers are stuck a decade in the past.
>>544926472>Fuck sakes, miggers are stuck a decade in the past.Canada was still a country a decade ago.
found the retard/shill>>544925991you've had practice whining and complaining. You'll do great in a couple weeks I'm sure.fucking loser pos psyop. it's just low energy. I expected better
>>544925635kill yourself
>>544926527Still can't admit you fell for it again, migger? Try not to kill yourself on November 3rd.
>>544920852Oh, but they've also been absolutely blowing my phone up with the texts asking me to take surveys n shit. Every time it's a new number. And every time I block & report spam.
>>544926370maybe a couch or two
LOL
>>544926642Hey, the topic was destroying the country. And if we're gonna do that, might as well be comfortable. The capitalist apocalypse where you slave all day for a quarter sounds unappealing.
>>544906899>bro doesn’t understand sampling rate
>>544912822
>>544906899>Big arena>300 peopleSomeones not a very appealing politician.
The GOP is crashing and burning. I think the Democrats and DSA can eat shit too but its a silver lining to watch conservacucks get humiliated.
>>544926158How the fuck was this asinine campaign strategy by Vivek given the green light? It does my head. I know the GOP is brain damaged but I did not fully fathom just how severe the brain damage was until this whole Acton was raped thing started.
>>544926750Your "country" got destroyed in a decade by a high school drama teacher and then went on to elect one of his top advisors who also trooned out his own kid. I'd probably be crying about Trump to cope as well if I was in your shoes, lol
>>544927270Vivek and his entire staff are Pajeets. It made perfect sense to them.
>>544908596Yes, 2020 was the most blatantly, openly, and shamelessly rigged election in human history, that is correct
>>544927421Nah thats not it. The rest of the GOP gave this nonsense the green light. Trump himself endorsed the ad with Actons mother calling her own daughther a liar. Then it turned out Actons mother has a criminal record too including animal cruelty.
>>544927475I really disagree with this. I think 2020 was a normal election, Trump just lost. I looked into all the election fraud claims and found them debunked 1 by 1. But that said I think there's something going on with immigrants voting and mail-in ballots that has been an issue for a long time, not just in 2020. The actual election fraud in 2020 was the way the media and all online platforms slanted in one direction, totally biasing the vote. At some point we as a nation need to come to terms with how elections are decided by money.
>>544906899He's right actually. The 2022 election was expected to be a red wave, but it wasn't. The 2018 election was also expected to be a huge blue wave, but it was mid. Finally, 2024 was fully expected for the Dems to win, but look at how that turned out.Polls mean nothing. Voting does.
>>544916375Hasten thr collapse, bitch. A pheonix shall rise from the ashes of Feminist TV Land.
>>544927475Yeah man. The president himself tried to steal 6 states with a fake elector slate.Worst probable voter fraud in american history. No one's ever tried to steal that many states before. And certainly not a guy we put BACK in the Whitehouse for some retarded reason
>>544927625The polls have a nasty habit of "rapidly adjusting themselves" on election day. Usually those polls are much more accurate.
>>544927624>The actual election fraud in 2020 wasit was the fake elector slate actially
>>544914731>>544915456The RINOs in the GOP are the ones who refused to give Trump any meaningful legislation to sign thus far, they are also the ones whose numbers in the Senate have been halved by Trump primarying them. There's nothing the RINOs want more than for democrats to beat every candidate who primaried a RINO and take control of congress so their voters will no longer hold them accountable for sandbagging Trump's agenda i.e. the agenda that 77 million adult US citizens voted for. So, by voting for democraps to help democraps and RINOs legislatively neuter Trump's second term is giving the people who won't let you have the policies you want exactly what they want. In other words, brown IQ moment
>>544927475Here is what happened. A lot of people were sick of Trumps shit already in 2020. Turnout shot up and they voted his ass out of office. It was a referendum on Trump. He only won 2024 because Biden and Harris threw the race to him. Turnout decreased.Go fuck yourself now.
>>544908849This will be my first mid term voting after 20 years of only voting Presidential elections. Changed my registration to independent. Looking back in 2016 I should have chose that then only picked Republican to punish the Democrat party for being corrupt niggers who stole the primary from Bernie. After winning the popular vote for the first time in 20 years in squandering it for a war no other Republican was ever dumb enough to start in Iran I feel I have to punish the evangelicals zog dogs as much as possible. Jimmy Carter starting to look pretty smart these days.
>>544927758>sick of Trumps shit already in 2020.What did he do? He didn't even get to do anything bro, his whole first term was stolen from him with the Russian collusion thing and an obstructionist congress.
>>544927754Everyone on pol used to implicitly understand this stuff, but now we're saddled with low IQ zoomers and male libtards looking for some attention like this faggot... >>544927729
>>544927625Oh, and of course, 2016 was expected to be an easy blue win, but again, look at how that turned out.
