When it comes to political predictions, I only follow Polymarket, because all the bettors are gambling with their own money.You need real inside information to win a bet.
>>545066164Would you bet on that?
He was 15% on Kalshi this morning and I thought there was no way he was losing, but the high choice was No Winner so I didn’t want to get suckered on that
>>545066361It's smarter on prediction markets to just buy in when the probability of your bet winning is much higher than what they're listing for the buy in (Bibi obviously had a 50% chance to win, not 20%, the buy in was at 20 cents) and sell when it moves a decent amount up and cash the profit (I.e. buy in at 20 cents and sell at 35 cents or 50 cents when the news cycle pushes the prediction of Bibi winning up to 50℅, moving the order books and buy in to 50 cents). Fuck the 15 minute commodity markets
>>545066164Bibi is a kapparot chicken. All the blame for the war will be pinned on him when it's done and he'll go live in a mansion in Florida.
polymarket was wrong about the brazil election and they have been wrong about other things before too. why does everyone take betting markets so seriously?
>>545066329I would
Winzzzzz.
>>545066940polymarket is NEVER wrong. you just have to pay watch to the odds in real time. never give an election for granted BEFORE elections day
>>545066164Votes are being counter and he was above the number he needs to govern for a short bit. That’s why it jumped. Still under 50% of votes counted so it’s still a big gamble.
>>545067595*counted He fell under again now as the count is ongoing and percentages change
>>545067153>Polymarket is wrong until they change the results midway to match the reality of the shit unfoldingWhy do people even use that shit... It's literally betting on shit you are literally watching unfold and then they change the numbers as shit is changing, so your bet geta fucked regardless
>>545066164if you are a non-hasidic jewish male living in israel this is bad news for you>more wars>manpower shortage
>>545067153>polymarket is NEVER wrongPolymarket had Flavio at 99% win rate the day before the Brazilian election. It is a platform for moronic degenerate gamblers, not a serious 'prediction platform'
>>545066164Gamblers tend not to be the brightest crayons in the box.
>>545068413>Polymarket had Flavio at 99% win rate the day before the Brazilian election.>never give an election for granted BEFORE elections daythat's exactly what I said. you have to check polymarket in real time when votes are being counted not before.
>>545066164Obviously they’re gonna rig it. You think he’d lose power in the middle of what they’re doing? He’s so close to finishing what he set out to do 30 years ago.
>>545068783>you have to check when the outcome is knownWow
>>545068987This
>>545069000this but unironically. it still works better than any polls!
>>545066164The bet is to remain prime minister, so technically the election is irrelevant, the odds of him seizing power regardless of the election are what went up.
>>545069000Seems to be this whole thread abridged.
>>545066164>oh how the dreidels have turned
>>545071077yes yes yes!eternal emperor bibi!fuck leftists! fuck lawyers! fuck arabs!
