All kidding aside, prediction markets should be illegal. It leads to perverse incentives. Imagine a judge has to rule on a major decision and his relatives are all betting on a certain outcome
>>545130449>imagine
>>545130449sounds like something you could fix with regulation
>>545130449ok but why wouldn't he just tell them to bet the way he will rule, rather than changing his ruling to match their bet
>>545130767I guess he could try to somehow make it very obvious to everyone what his ruling will be before actually ruling and thus manipulate the market, and then make a different ruling than everyone expects but which his relatives bet on.It seems a bit far-fetched but IDK.
>>545130449I guess we have to rely on AI-assisted Cyberjudges from India to avoid that.
>>545130628Not meaningfully when politicians / judges / higher ranking military officers can just get third parties to place bets on their behalf
>>545130945there is fundamentally nothing wrong with manipulating the betting market. The only thing that would be wrong is ruling the wrong way or otherwise bad conduct as a judge. The 'betting market' is not a thing, it is just a bunch of idiots throwing their money away. It is ok to take their money
>>545131152>The only thing that would be wrong is ruling the wrong way or otherwise bad conduct as a judge.Well yeah that's the problem that this thread is about.OP's arguing that allowing people to gamble at least on certain things encourages such bad conduct.
>>545131152>The 'betting market' is not a thing, it is just a bunch of idiots throwing their money away. It is ok to take their moneyThis. Remember all the dumbfucks who were betting that Biden wouldn't pardon Hunter? IIRC Polymarket had the "Biden will pardon Hunter" odds at 4%. You could have 25X'ed your money on a single bet. That means that a single $100 bet would have paid you $2500. Only the most brainless of leftards believed that Biden wasn't going to pardon Hunter.I quadrupled my money in three years on a much smaller platform (RIP Betmoose) (Polymarket was banned where I was residing) on bets just like that one, and that was even after I lost a shitload on the stolen 2020 election. I created bets on Biden pardoning Hunter, Biden pardoning his other relatives, Biden pardoning Fauci, Biden dropping out of the presidential race, Kamala being selected as his replacement. . . . EASY FUCKING MONEY. There were always leftards who were absolutely convinced that the Democrats weren't lying about everyfuckingthing that they said, and the leftards lost their money every single fucking time.At one point you could have 7X'ed your money by betting on Hannah Dugan being convicted. You also could have 4X'ed your money on whether Don Lemon would be criminally charged -- or 3X'ed it after a judge refused to hear the charges the first time and the Trump DOJ pushed them through via another judge who wasn't a biased piece of shit.Right now you can make an easy 50% gain on your money in a single bet on Kalshi. I've posted before about it, but this time I'm not going to mention it because I'm trying to VPN around the restrictions on it so I can put a shitload into that trade.
>>545131256but from the judge's perspective, it's actually much cleaner if he just rules the correct way and just has his friends bet that way. Doesn't really make sense to take a risk on making bad rulings, it's like killing the goose that lays the golden eggs. Actually not having the gambling market gives him more incentive to give in to corruption where he does a bad ruling in exchange for money
>>545131487You're right.That argument's pretty flimsy. I'm really trying to come up with any good ones but I guess I have to face the fact that I can't.
its already illegal you retard
