Honestly I expect the polling to underestimate the democrats. Polling is institutionally backed by more left wing sources, for them to underestimate the GOP again would really risk their funding. So every poll by and large has good reason to overestimate the right.Share yours if you have them. House and governor maps also would be cool
>>545320321Republicans will keep bothering the house and the Senate but Senate Republicans will continue to do nothing
>>545320321Florida Democrats really raped themselves picking a DSA candidate.
>>545320321Democrats are niggers
>>545320443She isn't doing that badly considered.But yeah for any dem to win in Florida, they need the whole of the Cuban vote. Can't get that with a commie
>>545320321Shithole states stay red
>>545320681No one except illegal aliens are moving to blue statesYour fantasy fails niglet
>>545320321Based MAGA!! Red wave coming!!!!
>>545320321>Mississippi>red>Louisiana>red>Nebraska>red
>>545320681Most likely.But in the south, things could get dicey as those places are very black. So with enough black turnout, a collapse in white republican turnout, and a slightly decrease in racial polarization among southern whites, and suddenly Mississippi and Louisiana are in contention.We'll have to see how demoralized the MAGA base really is
>>545320623It's not going to matter since they'll have a majority in the Senate anyway, but I think they're going to be kicking themselves for a while over this. Especially if Jolly wins and Nixon loses, which is an increasingly likely reality.
>>545320865Well size of the majority does matter.General wisdom would suggest the Dems will be in a trifecta in 2029. And to get anything done, they'll need to break the filibuster. Use that to make DC a state and ban gerrymandering to essentially lock them in control for the whole 2030s. But if it's a slim majority, they could be blocked by a few holdouts.So for Republicans, losing the senate by 51 is still way better than losing it by 55
>>545321152I think the more significant thing is we could have lived in a world where every major urbanized state went full blue and the entire Republican party just immediately killed themselves.
>>545320321I think they're going to be pretty accurate like 2018. The biggest thing that could make it wacky is that Trump is in the Bush Zone of unpopularity. 2022 underestimated Democrats, but I think that had a lot to do with Dobbs shaking it up relatively late in the game, and more than modeled.As long as Trump himself isn't on the ticket, polls have been pretty accurate over the last 10 years - and even then, they're still pretty good on downballot elections since the disgruntled white working class voters of MAGA (the people that flipped from Obama to Trump) are low propensity and didn't necessarily care about the rest of the ticket.I think your map relies on Democrats winning all the coin tosses. I think they're more likely to end up with 52 or 53. I don't see them winning all of TX, KS, IA, ME, and SC; I'd put KS, IA, and SC down for ultimately coming home to Republicans.
>>545320848The Republicans are actually cooked if educated whites in the South start to vote like educated whites elsewhere in the US. The solid South basically relies on high racial polarization and low education polarization because white voters are justifiably concerned about political blackness turning their state into Jackson, Memphis, or Baton Rouge.>>545321152Or just make Puerto Rico a state. I think that's more defensible on historical precedent, since it's basically Hawaii 2.0
>>545321807That's a fair critique.I mean my expectation is that polling firms are overcompensating for 2024. But if not, then I'd say that Iowa is probably red, they have a good candidate there, and honestly I think Maine would stay GOP too.With Maine the Dems have really ran a bad campaign. They've been trying to make people dislike Susan Collins, but Mainers already feel like they know Susan Collins. Instead they should have framed it like Susan Collins having changed, moved right and abandoning her promises.People are stubborn, once they have an opinion on something, they are loathe to change it.
>>545322095Puerto Rico makes infinitely more sense as a state, DC is a stupid idea for a state if you ask me. If they really need representation, they should just pass a law allowing for DC to be congressionally counted into Maryland.But the Dems care way more about DC than PR. It will be easier to make into a state, and it will be 100% Democratic since it's majority black.
>>545320321The Miggercaust is upon is.
>>545322821Yep. This is only the beginning, too.MAGA built no institutions, never established an ideology. When Trump is not-president, and later dead, there will be nothing left of MAGAAnd since Trump has fucked up this second term so badly, when Trump is gone, his whole brand of fiery politics will be associated with failure and getting nothing done.Watch the GOP run a Sununu or a Phil Scott in 2032, completely turn heel on everything they've been for 20 years
>>545322482Maine is probably the one that I keep flip flopping on. The fundamentals don't favor her, the polls don't favor her, but she's a historical overperformer - however, I do wonder if the extent to which she's tied herself to Trump makes it different this time around.
>>545323200If Vance becomes the nominee in 28 and gets beaten black and blue, I think that's how MAGA dies - a political movement that made people think "You know what, maybe Woke and Bushism weren't that bad in retrospect"
>>545323424It's tough, we'll only know when we know.Mainers, the Northern New Englanders more broadly (I'm from Vermont, so I know this first hand) are a very complacent people who like who they have.But 2026 is very different from 2020. Roe V Wade, a huge thing for liberals, was axed basically because of Collin's votes. The country is also far more polarized. Back in 2020 the idea of a normal, moderate Republican was far more tolerable and real to a Democrat than it is now.
>>545320321>Polling is institutionally backed by more left wing sources, for them to underestimate the GOP again would really risk their fundingextremely delusional statement that shows you have no idea what push polls are
>>545323594I lived in Texas during the 2018 cycle, which is why I'm fairly confident Talarico will win. It's still a tossup but the bottom line is that the economy is worse for reasons that can't easily be blamed on Democrats, Paxton is worse than Cruz, and Talarico is better than Beto - who ultimately was underestimated in polling even though he lost.
Real question is can AIPAC stop El Sayed. Even the AIPAC dems are campaigning against him it's fucking crazy. If he wins we could see an anti-Israel dem win in 2028.
>>545320443>>545320423>>545320495>>545320623Florida will be blue because fishback voters will vote blue out of spite since he didn't get win the gop nomination for guvna. Simple as. Imagine being cucked enough to vote R. People wanted fishback. If your guy doesn't win, literally it makes sense to vote for the opposite side to ruin it for everyone. That's how the real world works.
>>545322680They care more about DC because DC is guaranteed to be permanently blue, whereas PR is much more of an unknown.
>>545324319>Fishback>influentialDelusional. He might play spoiler, but that's because his voters are retards like lolberts and greens.
>>545324319>People wanted fishback. AAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHhaahhHahaHAHAHAHAHAAAA
>>545324319Florida is literally the most Jewish state. It's going to be R for decades now that the GOP is a single issue Pro-Israel party.
>>545323502Even without Vance, the candidate in '28 will be MAGA.MAGA is the Republican base, outside of a very few instances, who Trump endorses, wins. And Trump endorses 'MAGA,' whatever it even means anymore.But, logically given what this admin has already been, we can assume that the economy will at best be in malaise and wounded from the Iran war, and worst case scenario could be in a complete depression after some stock market bubble.Foreign policy hasn't benefitted Trump, nor his wedge issues.So it should be a blue wave no matter who the Republicans run.And by that point, defeat would mar the very idea of MAGA>>545324124Probably not. Michigan hasn't elected a Republican senator since the 90s. The idea that, during a blue wave year, that they would buck that trend is pretty laughable.It helps that, outside of having a racial/religious handicap, El-Sayed is a strong candidate
>>545324574American Jews often don't really care about Israel that much. Even with the Democratic party moving away from Zionism, the Jewish vote is still a Democratic one
>>545320321This retard got lost on his way to reddit
>>545325439I take this back, I have no idea what Jews think
>>545323502Whoever runs in 2028 is gonna be a sacrificial lamb like mcain. I voted for trump each time and I gotta admit I'm ready to move on. I could see a period of detrumpification especially if 2028 is a bloodbath
May as well post a governor race predictionI think that AI is a much bigger issue for local level races than people think. People are disgusted by the very idea of AI data centers being in their community, and NIMBY-ism is a huge motivator for local electionsGiven how Greg Abbott has gone full throttle on AI infrastructure, and with Talarico energizing the hispanic and white democratic votes, I think Gina Hinajosa can pull it off.But, in Georgia, the Dems fucked up by nominating Atlanta's mayor.Atlanta has the worst city-planning in America, the worst traffic jams. I think even Atlantans carry a grudge against her that the GOP holds in GAAs much as I wish my state, Vermont, will throw off Scott, I just can't see it happening. We're a complacent people by disposition
>Alaska bluelol
>>545326106Fuck I forgot the image
>>545320321Niggas still forgetting about DUMMYMANDERING. So many gop retardd have effectivley diluted and destroyed their own districts because of "Le Mandate"
>>545325439>>545325811Millions of American Jews vote in Israel's elections. They most certainly care about Israel.
>>545326106>Atlanta has the worst city-planning in America, the worst traffic jams. I think even Atlantans carry a grudge against her that the GOP holds in GAWhite turnout is non-existent in Georgia. Enough black voters will vote for her that she'll get elected regardless.
>>545320321Polls have never underestimated democrats before? Why would this be the first ever election for that to take place?
>>545326385Polls underestimated Dems in a few races in 2022 and in 2025.
>>545326174Right unironically looks more gay than left.
>>545326385Actually polls have underestimated Democrats just about every non-presidential-election year since Trump took charge. Except 2021.But each midterm before, the polls were merrier for the GOP than the results
>>545326768It's also inaccurate as almost all of rural Alaska is eskimos.
>>545326385Retard alert>>545326106I think Abbot pulls a rabbit out of the hat and wins. It's not impossible that Hinojosa wins, but a lot of the Republicans that want to screw Paxton don't feel the same way about Abbott. It within the the margin of error that Hinojosa could win, but all the polls still have Abbot up and have for months. Maybe Talarico drags her along with him if he wins, but I think Talarico really benefits from other Republican factions wanting to give MAGA the middle finger as well as get the guy they've wanted to fuck off and go away since they impeached him to finally be gone.
>>545326768>>545326823
>>545326801In the Trump era, the GOP has traded high propensity educated white suburbanites for lower propensity white working class voters. It's flipped from the Obama era
>>545327076>muh plebbitards have no brain lol!One mentions cancer, another brainbleed. You are clearly the retarded one here lol. Maybe go get your brain scanned?
