How do I calculate possible scenarios that result in specific odds?>want 100000:1 odds>how many coin flips?>how many dice rolls of d6?I'm looking for a way to generate an exact probability from discrete games of chance, not a ballpark or minimum/maximum.>how many rolls of a D6, a D20, and a Coin Flip would result in precisely 124,087,420:1 odds? The difficulty to succeed on the dice is variable, but must be consistent with all subsequent rolls. ie: succeeding on the D6 must remain 4 for the first and all subsequent rolls. Same rule for the D20 could make success a 15 or above, exactly 15, or never above 14. All that matters is the difficulty never changes once its decided upon. The D6 and D20 can have different difficulties from eachother.
IDK man, but i would start with an array of numbers
It’s like D7.42 haha I think
Depends how many times you roll but if it’s 3 it’s probably hit or miss. It’s hard to tell.
Maybe D8 if you cut yourself a break, on the next roll ?
>>16997369Log_x(y)=n where x is the number of faces, y is the desired probability, and n is the number of rolls. If n is a non-integer that indicates that what you're asking for is not possible with the number of die faces you have.Eg. Log_6(100,000)= ~6.425 so there exists no number of 6-sided dice rolls that are exactly 1:100,000. You can get closer by mixing dice. 6^6 = 46,656 so if you have 6 dice and 1 coin you end up with 1:93,312.The sort of precision you're asking for involves a parametric equation along the lines of:A^b * C^d = 100,000 for which there are no easy, formulaic, methods to find solutions for.
>>16997369>>16997755Same guy. Just realized I'm retarded.Take the prime factorization of your target. That is your set of dice. For 100,000 that's 2^5 and 5^5. So if you had 5 coins and 5, 5-sided dice then your chance of rolling the highest (or lowest) value on all of them would be 1:100,000
You can get literally every rational probability with any dice if you allow arbitrary many rolls. For example for the 1/100000 probability with 6-sides dice you can first roll it 7 times to generate an uniformly random number from 1 to 299936 (think base 6) and then consider 1 success. 2 to 100000 as failure and reroll everything if you get a number in the 100001 to 299936 range.
